Christian McCaffrey: Is the upside even there to turn it around

[Darkness]

25 minutes ago, Marc MacGyver said:

He deserves another year, or two, before we call him a bust. However, on his current trajectory he's more likely to be considered an underachiever. 

Busts are typically on their way out of the league after 3-4 years. I can't see that with McCaffrey.  

You’re focusing on the word “bust” too much. Point of the thread was to ask if he could live up to being drafted 8th overall. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

44 minutes ago, Marc MacGyver said:

He deserves another year, or two, before we call him a bust. However, on his current trajectory he's more likely to be considered an underachiever. 

Busts are typically on their way out of the league after 3-4 years. I can't see that with McCaffrey.  

He can still find a role as a third down back/Danny Woodhead type player for years to come if he really can't run the football between the tackles. 

[LD696]

7 minutes ago, Darkness said:

Can’t believe someone would argue McCaffrey is close to Gurley athletically. All you have to do is watch them play to know that’s not true.

Dalvin Cook tested much worse then the athleticism he shows on the field. Christian McCaffrey tested much better then what he shows on the field.

combine =/= football

I'm glad that you can measure someone's athleticism better by watching them from 50 m in a weird camera angle, than a standardised test where they are compared to the same standard and which was designed for this by professional trainers, coaches etc. With this ability you have a bright future as a pro scout or maybe even a GM.

Unfortunately though "athleticism shown on the field" is a non-existent category. Someone's athleticism (as in, physical skill and ability) doesn't change because he/she steps on a football field. His/her bone density, muscle mass, genetically coded explosiveness doesn't suddenly become better when stepping on turf. Someone with better aggregated combine numbers (through MEI, SPARQ, Waldo's formula) is a better athlete fair and square.

For sure, this doesn't mean he becomes a better football player, I'll give you that. But this "athleticism shown on the field" goalpost-moving-nonsense is brought up too many times by people who have no idea what separates people purely athletically from each other. When you put Gurley and McCaffrey into a vacuum, clearing away the influences of teammates, opponents and mental abilities (reading blocks, game intelligence, patience), they are on the same level of physical ability.

[Phire]

Caff will never live up to being taken 8th overall. At 8th overall, you should be getting a RB like Zeke (4th overall), Fournette (4th overall), Peterson (7th overall), or Gurley (10th overall). You should be getting an athletic freak who can withstand the rigors of getting 20+ touches on all three downs in an NFL game week after week. 

Caff isn't that. I'm not saying Caff won't or can't be productive in the NFL. Of course he can. But he won't be 8th overall in the NFL Draft type productive. I mean, he's basically a James White (4th round), Duke Johnson (3rd round), and Theo Riddick (6th round) with substantially more volume. I mean hell, Chris Thompson (5th round) is playing the same role Caff does except he's much, MUCH more productive with less volume.

Even if Caff does significantly more with the ball in his hands from here on out, his ceiling isn't what a RB's should be taken 8th overall. 

[Darkness]

2 hours ago, LD696 said:

I'm glad that you can measure someone's athleticism better by watching them from 50 m in a weird camera angle, than a standardised test where they are compared to the same standard and which was designed for this by professional trainers, coaches etc. With this ability you have a bright future as a pro scout or maybe even a GM.

Unfortunately though "athleticism shown on the field" is a non-existent category. Someone's athleticism (as in, physical skill and ability) doesn't change because he/she steps on a football field. His/her bone density, muscle mass, genetically coded explosiveness doesn't suddenly become better when stepping on turf. Someone with better aggregated combine numbers (through MEI, SPARQ, Waldo's formula) is a better athlete fair and square.

For sure, this doesn't mean he becomes a better football player, I'll give you that. But this "athleticism shown on the field" goalpost-moving-nonsense is brought up too many times by people who have no idea what separates people purely athletically from each other. When you put Gurley and McCaffrey into a vacuum, clearing away the influences of teammates, opponents and mental abilities (reading blocks, game intelligence, patience), they are on the same level of physical ability.

Lol what a nerd. If you think McCafffey is athletic as Gurley you either need your eyes checked or just aren’t watching the game 

[LD696]

Just now, Darkness said:

Lol what a nerd. If you think McCafffey is athletic as Gurley you either need your eyes checked or just aren’t watching the game 

I take you've understood nothing I wrote, so you're just bowing out of this argument. gg wp

[VanS]

Christian McCaffrey is who I thought he was before the draft.  He's a speciality 3rd down back.  I questioned his ability to be a between the tackles runner because of his size.  He was simply too small.  And that has shown itself in the NFL.

As a pass catcher in space he's phenomenal.  There is a place in the NFL for Christian McCaffrey.   But this idea that he can be a 3-down between the tackles runner is simply not happening. 

McCaffrey needs to be paired up with a physical RB like a LeGarrette Blount that can take up the role of physical between the tackles runner while he can be the speciality back on 3rd down that can make plays in space.  That is McCaffrey's role in the NFL.

[43M]

On 11/7/2017 at 8:15 AM, iknowcool said:

I'm skeptical that a lot of people calling him a bust 9 games into his career have really seen him perform this year.  

Once again....WHERE DID I EVER CALL HIM A BUST?

EDIT:   Point rescinded, but not sure why youre bringing this up if you know Im not calling him a bust.

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Someone in this thread even said he wasn't better than Stewart.  That is just laughable.  The gap between McCaffrey and Stewart is enormous.  Stewart isn't any good anymore.

No argument there.

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You didn't make that clear at all.  You just said you didn't view him as a top 50 pick. 

Hmm....

Yes, that is exactly what I said. 

My question is...how is that "not clear at all"?     If someone said to me "I didnt view (player) as a top 50 pick coming out", I would immediately surmise that they were talking about how they viewed that player as an NFL prospect coming out of college.

You dont have to agree with it, but yes, I absolutely made it clear.

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I assume people start evaluating players based on how they have looked in their NFL career, not from what they did in college.  McCaffrey has been an effective runner for us when given the chance. 

I wont act like I have watched every snap he has played this year, but I saw alot of his time at Stanford.

What I have seen this year (2 games and some change, worth) has just been okay....which is what I expected from him.   Definitely dont see a star, but again....he is a rookie.   A 21 year old rookie.  There is absolutely room to grow.   I still dont believe one bit he will ever be a star....and the bulk of that assessment comes from watching him in at Stanford.   Have I been wrong before?  Yes.  Could I be wrong now?  Yes....but I still feel that way FOR NOW.  

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Just curious.  Based off his college film, why do you think he is only a situational player?  The elite vision, quick feet, and ability to run in between the tackles was there in college.  

Vision is one of the hardest things to judge, especially going from college to the pros.     Not saying you cant gauge it at all,  but elite vision in college doesnt always translate to elite vision in the NFL.     He ran between the tackles, but again, doing that in college and doing that in the NFL arent quite the same thing since lineman and backers are bigger, stronger and faster.   

Bottom line, TO ME, he has always just looked like a Patriots type player in the mold of Kevin Faulk and Danny Woodhead....role players who can have extreme value in the right situations, but arent exactly feature back material (which is why I thought the Patriots might trade up if he fell far enough)..     

If I end up being wrong, feel free to call me on it.   I have no issue admitting I am wrong....but until he proves it one way or another, its wait and see.

[sammymvpknight]

21 hours ago, Phire said:

Caff will never live up to being taken 8th overall. At 8th overall, you should be getting a RB like Zeke (4th overall), Fournette (4th overall), Peterson (7th overall), or Gurley (10th overall). You should be getting an athletic freak who can withstand the rigors of getting 20+ touches on all three downs in an NFL game week after week. 

Caff isn't that. I'm not saying Caff won't or can't be productive in the NFL. Of course he can. But he won't be 8th overall in the NFL Draft type productive. I mean, he's basically a James White (4th round), Duke Johnson (3rd round), and Theo Riddick (6th round) with substantially more volume. I mean hell, Chris Thompson (5th round) is playing the same role Caff does except he's much, MUCH more productive with less volume.

Even if Caff does significantly more with the ball in his hands from here on out, his ceiling isn't what a RB's should be taken 8th overall. 

People greatly overrate expectations based on draft pick. There are TONS of players who outright bust in the top 10. If you have a player who is a big contributor and helps you win games...that’s a successful pick in my book. Bush didn’t turn into the next Marcus Allen but he helped the Saints win multiple division crowns and a Super Bowl. At #2 overall...that’s a win. Even if McCaffrey never turns into a great runner, he can still be a solid #8 overall pick if he helps the team win football games. 

[tyler735]

Something I would add is that a couple weeks ago NFL.com posted an article regarding McCaffrey, and the Panthers run game that stated:

" -0.3 yards (yes negative) before a defender gets within one yard of the ball carrier. Line integrity has been an issue with defenders consistently piercing into the backfield on run plays.

Last year the Panthers were smack dab middle-of-the-pack in terms of offensive line yards generated, pushing forward 0.42 yards before a defender closed in on the ball carrier. That 0.7 yard difference doesn't sound like much, but it's massive. Think about it like yards per carry. The gap between 3.3 ypc and 4.0 ypc feels like an ocean of difference."

So in other words, on average a defender is in the backfield disrupting a run before McCaffrey/Stewart can even get to the LOS. This is why I continue to say that it's way to early to judge McCaffrey's production running the ball as the holes to run through are few and far between at this point.

That said, it appears PFF gave him a pretty good grade against the Falcons last week with an 85.1 grade.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-refocused-carolina-panthers-20-atlanta-falcons-17

[Carmen Cygni]

17 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

Something I would add is that a couple weeks ago NFL.com posted an article regarding McCaffrey, and the Panthers run game that stated:

" -0.3 yards (yes negative) before a defender gets within one yard of the ball carrier. Line integrity has been an issue with defenders consistently piercing into the backfield on run plays.

Last year the Panthers were smack dab middle-of-the-pack in terms of offensive line yards generated, pushing forward 0.42 yards before a defender closed in on the ball carrier. That 0.7 yard difference doesn't sound like much, but it's massive. Think about it like yards per carry. The gap between 3.3 ypc and 4.0 ypc feels like an ocean of difference."

So in other words, on average a defender is in the backfield disrupting a run before McCaffrey/Stewart can even get to the LOS. This is why I continue to say that it's way to early to judge McCaffrey's production running the ball as the holes to run through are few and far between at this point.

That said, it appears PFF gave him a pretty good grade against the Falcons last week with an 85.1 grade.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-refocused-carolina-panthers-20-atlanta-falcons-17

PFF has very complicated ways of stating the obvious, but nonetheless if someone is not a frequent viewer of the NFL outside of their own rooting interest, I'll concede it plays a role in perhaps helping steer their opinion on certain matters. Regardless, what you posted here stands true. The Panthers OL is certainly a weakness, especially in run blocking. Though, on a side note (rant) I'll never be able to get on board with their individual grading process, as it has too many inherent flaws.

[Small Town Values]

On 09/11/2017 at 4:00 AM, Darkness said:

You’re focusing on the word “bust” too much. Point of the thread was to ask if he could live up to being drafted 8th overall. 

True. 

He still deserves another year, or two, to turn it around. But, if he ends up as just a slot guy rather than a versatile weapon, it'll be disappointing. 

 Funny, I remember comparing him to Reggie Bush in his draft thread on the old forum. I hope his pro career doesn't pan out in similar fashion, because he was a straight up beast in college, but so was Reggie.   

[I <3 Faulk]

On 11/1/2017 at 1:31 PM, EliteTexan80 said:

So... you're saying he's overrated... because he... might get... injured?

I thought only LT was overrated for that....

[El Ramster]

11 minutes ago, I <3 Faulk said:

I thought only LT was overrated for that....

Like 40 people got banned in that thread.. We lost some good me too soon.

 

( ͡ಠ ͜ʖ ͡ಠ)

[Hunter2_1]

"Bottom line, TO ME, he has always just looked like a Patriots type player in the mold of Kevin Faulk and Danny Woodhead....role players who can have extreme value in the right situations, but arent exactly feature back material (which is why I thought the Patriots might trade up if he fell far enough)..     "

Yup. Never thought he'd fall to us, but will always consider every other team a mis-fit for him. He would definitely be our Woodhead.