Week 17 Covid List Discussion

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

It's really a joke but the NFL had to put something in place. They are scared to death about what's undoubtedly going to transpire come playoffs. Writing is on the wall.

They know major , game altering players will pop in the coming month and God forbid miss a chance at a NFC/AFCCG and or SB.  This helps negate some of that to an extent.  Absolutely nothing to do with safety but money.

Of course it's all about money - but to be fair, this was always going to be the endgame.  The whole idea of negative tests, waiting 10 days - was created in an era of uncertainty and the lack of any protection against serious illness with Covid.     It also wasn't going to be sustainable.    The iffy part is the optics and the timing - making it clear it's more about $ than being safe - but that doesn't mean it isn't safe.    Sadly, with the virus being THIS prevalent in the community, but the vaxx still protecting against severe infection, especially those who are healthy, the approach is rational.   Adopting the approach now, instead of later, shows how much the $$ matters, though.   

The NFL, like the NBA/NHL, and to be fair, everyone even in the scientific community - thought the vaccine's protection against infection itself would last until the next major mutation - no one thought it would come this quickly (and again, having so many ppl unvaxxed globally and in US is something we've never encountered before with other pandemics where vaccines were created - so it wasn't easily predictable the next big mutation would come this soon).    If Omicron doesn't appear now, but even just 2 months later - it's business as usual in the NFL (not for NBA/NHL, obviously).

But now that we're in the next phase, where a more contagious form that can break through vaccine protection for infection itself, but presents as a less severe form (and especially if you're vaxxed & healthy) - this is the only way workforces, including the NFL, can proceed.   Again, to re-iterate a point I made before in other threads - the 10-day window was never going to last.    In health-care workforce, with a population that's generally all healthy, and fully vaxxed - the well-established practice with flu was 24 hours without symptoms or fever, and you're back to work.  I FULLY expect the NFL will adopt this practice for vaxxed players next season, when there's likely a seasonal booster that's engineered for Omicron (or whatever is predicted to be predominant for fall 2022).

I don't post the above to generate a debate on the merits, or the timing of the decision - we all know that's off-limits to go into that direction.  I think everyone knows the decision is financially-driven, to make sure the games go on, and with the best players being most available to play.   But it's also a practice that's well-established in health care - and with them taking care of patients, I think it's also clear it's hard to argue it isn't rational.  In fact, I expect next year we'll see the practice change to vaxxed-only players needing 24-hours without fever/symptoms & unvaxxed players getting tested regularly & 5 days if they are positive.

I hope the above can keep the discussion moving forward on the football discussion. 

Edited December 29, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Back to the team-based implications....

 

Again, the lack of testing makes total sense - PCR doesn't distinguish between live/dead virus.   It's not done with patients or health care workers.   The issue is of course dropping the time period.   But again, for flu in HCW's who are vaccinated, the time period is 24 hours without symptoms or fever.  

The team implications are that all unvaxxed players who are asymptomatic and have no fever (unlikely at 5 days) will be cleared after 5 days.  The Bills cleared a bunch of players.   The Colts should be next with Darius Leonard, Carson Wentz & Quenton Nelson all unvaxxed.   They also likely get G & RT Braden Smith & LT Eric Fisher back now (vaxx status unknown, but moot now), along with starters CB Rock Ya-Sin and DE Turay.   The Chargers get back WR Mike Williams & DE Joey Bosa back, who would have missed the game being unvaxxed, and CB Mike Davis back, testing positive on Monday (status moot) & ILB Drue Tranquill / S Naseer Adderley / G Osemele so that's 4 key starters on D and their other big WR / starting OL.

So yeah, the Browns & Saints fans should be p****d.   The timing cost them 1 winnable game each.   Maybe they still lose, but we'll never know.     The Colts, Chargers & Bills should all be very grateful at the timing.

Edited December 29, 2021 by Broncofan

[Louis Friend]

20 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Back to the team-based implications....

 

Again, the lack of testing makes total sense - PCR doesn't distinguish between live/dead virus.   It's not done with patients or health care workers.   The issue is of course dropping the time period.   But again, for flu in HCW's who are vaccinated, the time period is 24 hours without symptoms or fever.  

The team implications are that all unvaxxed players who are asymptomatic and have no fever (unlikely at 5 days) will be cleared after 5 days.  The Bills cleared a bunch of players.   The Colts should be next with Darius Leonard, Carson Wentz & Quenton Nelson all unvaxxed.   They also likely get G & RT Braden Smith & LT Eric Fisher back now (vaxx status unknown, but moot now), along with starters CB Rock Ya-Sin and DE Turay.   The Chargers get back Mike Williams & Joey Bosa back, who would have missed the game being unvaxxed, and Mike Davis back, testing positive on Monday (status moot) & Drue Tranquill / Naseer Adderley, so that's 4 key starters on D and their other big WR.

So yeah, the Browns & Saints fans should be p****d.   The timing cost them 1 winnable game each.   Maybe they still lose, but we'll never know.     The Colts, Chargers & Bills should all be very grateful at the timing.

I work with healthcare workers and when they test positive for covid, they have to have two negative tests to return to work. So I'm not sure where in the country health workers can just time out of quarantine, but it's not the case here in Arizona. 

[Broncofan]

14 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

I work with healthcare workers and when they test positive for covid, they have to have two negative tests to return to work. So I'm not sure where in the country health workers can just time out of quarantine, but it's not the case here in Arizona. 

It's that way in Canada, UK, and most of Europe - the 10-day window chosen arbritrarily (and correctly, out of the precautionary principle).  The CDC has had the 10-day window without testing throughout - it's the states that choose to use it.    This is pre-change to 5 days from the CDC itself (section "Work Restrictions for HCP with SARS-Cov-2 infection"

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/guidance-risk-assesment-hcp.html

 

The US states' focus on testing is unique, and was driven by the precautionary principle, and the premise that everyone would have access to PCR testing easily.   Again, PCR tests do not differentiate between live & dead virus.  And 15+ percent of ppl continue to shed virus even 1 month post-Covid in studies.   

Edited December 29, 2021 by Broncofan

[Louis Friend]

Just now, Broncofan said:

It's that way in Canada, UK, and most of Europe - the 10-day window chosen arbritrarily (and correctly, out of the precautionary principle).   The US' focus on testing is unique, and was driven by precautionary principle.   Again, PCR tests do not differentiate between live & dead virus.  And 15+ percent of ppl continue to shed virus even 1 month post-Covid in studies.   

Exactly, which is why a 5-day window regardless of symptoms is not CDC guidelines but just NFL for money purposes. CDC says 5 days IF asymptomic and still masking for another 5 days, which puts you still in that 10 day window for asymptomic people. However, this narrative that healthcare workers don't need to test is completely inaccurate. 

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

Exactly, which is why a 5-day window regardless of symptoms is not CDC guidelines but just NFL for money purposes. CDC says 5 days IF asymptomic and still masking for another 5 days, which puts you still in that 10 day window for asymptomic people. However, this narrative that healthcare workers don't need to test is completely inaccurate. 

I will repeat that this is the practice that the CDC endorsed pre-change to 5 days - it's right up there in the link above.  Your state doesn't do this - but many do, and the evidence absolutely supports this - it's why the rest of the world, this is a common practice where test access isn't nearly as universal.   Again, we're getting into the debate area, though, so I'll leave it at that.   And yes, I live this every day too, working in the ICU and making these decisions, both for patients and HCW's.   

I've done nothing but emphasize the need for vaccines in everyone, it's still absolutely essential (and a real black mark that the US still isn't at rates that other countries like UK/Canada have, given the availability) - but testing post-Covid is simply not necessary in patients, HCW's and players whose symptoms have resolved, or who are asymptomatic.    The only real question is how long - and on that count, I still expect in vaxxed players, the number will only go down, and without testing.   So understand this isn't a position I take lightly.   I also say the above recognizing that this is being driven by $$ first and foremost - it's just that it wouldn't be signed off without it being evaluated as safe by outside orgs, or health organizations not just in the US, but the world.

Edited December 29, 2021 by Broncofan

[candyman93]

38 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

So yeah, the Browns & Saints fans should be p****d.   The timing cost them 1 winnable game each

If we make the playoffs I won’t care. Honestly, as long as we get some help and control our destiny I will live with the results.

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

If we make the playoffs I won’t care. Honestly, as long as we get some help and control our destiny I will live with the results.

Yeah, if you get in, no one ends up caring in CLE nearly as much.   NO is in a lot rougher shape in they need help to get back in - if KC beats CIN, you beat PIT, and then it's win-and-in scenario for Week 18.     Overall, though, Covid has not been kind to Browns fans - at least NO got the freebie DEN game last year, CLE has had some pretty rough scheduling challenges as a result of Covid the past 2 years.

Edited December 29, 2021 by Broncofan

[candyman93]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

KC beats CIN, you beat PIT, and then it's win-and-in scenario for Week 18.

Need the Ravens to lose 1 more too (they play the Rams), but you’re correct.

 

Perfect example, ZERO Browns fans talk about that Jets game last year because we made the playoffs.

[Louis Friend]

7 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I will repeat that this is the practice that the CDC endorsed pre-change to 5 days - it's right up there in the link above.  Your state doesn't do this - but many do, and the evidence absolutely supports this.   Again, we're getting into the debate area, though, so I'll leave it at that.   And yes, I live this every day too, working in the ICU and making these decisions.   I've done nothing but emphasize the need for vaxxes in everyone - but testing post-Covid is simply not necessary in patients, HCW's and players whose symptoms have resolved.   

I won't continue this but just state, that HCW do in fact need to test to return to work. They cannot just isolate for five days. And no, lack of testing does not make sense, despite what Canada, the UK and most of Europe does. They have no had the case numbers or amounts of deaths the U.S. has. I will leave it at that. 

As for the NFL, we all knew they would put money before health, so changing this policy right before the playoffs is not shocking. It is a slap in the face to all the teams who've had to play without players, who would play under these new guidelines. 

[Broncofan]

6 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

Need the Ravens to lose 1 more too (they play the Rams), but you’re correct.

 

Perfect example, ZERO Browns fans talk about that Jets game last year because we made the playoffs.

Right, forgot about LAR-BAL, truthfully because the Ravens literally have no secondary.  I expect the Rams won't slip up, given they need to win out to secure the NFCW crown.    

Incidentally, the Chargers win out & Browns win out, they get in with IND (I don't expect them to lose to JAX, let alone both LV & JAX now that they have their players back) and the BUF/NE runner up.  Pretty wild given how badly both teams have been playing.  If the LAC run D can get patchworked and/or Baker's TO's can be limited, both teams are dangerous to any other team.    Just both teams' problems are REALLY hard to fix easily.

[Xenos]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Back to the team-based implications....

 

Again, the lack of testing makes total sense - PCR doesn't distinguish between live/dead virus.   It's not done with patients or health care workers.   The issue is of course dropping the time period.   But again, for flu in HCW's who are vaccinated, the time period is 24 hours without symptoms or fever.  

The team implications are that all unvaxxed players who are asymptomatic and have no fever (unlikely at 5 days) will be cleared after 5 days.  The Bills cleared a bunch of players.   The Colts should be next with Darius Leonard, Carson Wentz & Quenton Nelson all unvaxxed.   They also likely get G & RT Braden Smith & LT Eric Fisher back now (vaxx status unknown, but moot now), along with starters CB Rock Ya-Sin and DE Turay.   The Chargers get back WR Mike Williams & DE Joey Bosa back, who would have missed the game being unvaxxed, and CB Mike Davis back, testing positive on Monday (status moot) & ILB Drue Tranquill / S Naseer Adderley / G Osemele so that's 4 key starters on D and their other big WR / starting OL.

So yeah, the Browns & Saints fans should be p****d.   The timing cost them 1 winnable game each.   Maybe they still lose, but we'll never know.     The Colts, Chargers & Bills should all be very grateful at the timing.

Good post. But just to input on the Chargers side, Bosa should be back for the Denver regardless. He tested positive the Monday before which is why he missed the Texans game. Tranquil already had a breakthrough case earlier in the year. He might miss this game because of an ankle injury. The others you mentioned should be back for this upcoming game if they have no symptoms.

On a sidenote, if so knew the defense was going to be that horrendous against the Texans of all people, I selfishly and stupidly wanted this policy the week before. Key word being stupid on my part 😆

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, Xenos said:

Good post. But just to input on the Chargers side, Bosa should be back for the Denver regardless. He tested positive the Monday before which is why he missed the Texans game. Tranquil already had a breakthrough case earlier in the year. He might miss this game because of an ankle injury. The others you mentioned should be back for this upcoming game if they have no symptoms.

On a sidenote, if so knew the defense was going to be that horrendous against the Texans of all people, I selfishly and stupidly wanted this policy the week before. Key word being stupid on my part 😆

It's hard to keep track of all the timings lol.  It was Mike Williams and all the Monday players who were going to miss / be at risk.   Williams back is MASSIVE, because Josh Palmer / Guyton are serviceable, but against DEN's secondary, you want to be able to threaten with Allen and Williams (and Williams always burns our secondary with at least 1 big play, if not just go plain nuts).  At the very least, Williams takes out Surtain's shadow coverage, which allows Allen far more favorable matchups.   Osemele is a big one to stay there, giving Herbert time is how you expose DEN's D - teams that have protected the QB well, can exploit the few weaknesses Fangio's scheme has (Fangio is so good at confusing QB's first reads, it's usually the 2nd/3rd read that beats us, why the D does so well overall, and also able to limit points allowed, given how much smaller the windows are there).

Staley's done a fantastic job of adjusting to their run D flaws by going 8-in-box, but it still depends so much on James/Bosa being disruptive.   GM Telesco needs to draft a DT force like Georgia's DT Jordan Davis next year.  It's literally their glaring weakness.    Hopefully his blind spot on devaluing run stuffing DT ends.    For this week, sell out and make Drew Lock beat you.    That generally works out well for DEN's opponents.  

[Xenos]

24 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Right, forgot about LAR-BAL, truthfully because the Ravens literally have no secondary.  I expect the Rams won't slip up, given they need to win out to secure the NFCW crown.    

Incidentally, the Chargers win out & Browns win out, they get in with IND (I don't expect them to lose to JAX, let alone both LV & JAX now that they have their players back) and the BUF/NE runner up.  Pretty wild given how badly both teams have been playing.  If the LAC run D can get patchworked and/or Baker's TO's can be limited, both teams are dangerous to any other team.    Just both teams' problems are REALLY hard to fix easily.

With regards to LAC, I thought we need to win out and have both the Dolphins and Ravens lose one game. But the whole seeding process is complicated.

[Xenos]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

It's hard to keep track of all the timings lol.  It was Mike Williams and all the Monday players who were going to miss / be at risk.   Williams back is MASSIVE, because Josh Palmer / Guyton are serviceable, but against DEN's secondary, you want to be able to threaten with Allen and Williams (and Williams always burns our secondary with at least 1 big play, if not just go plain nuts).  At the very least, Williams takes out Surtain's shadow coverage, which allows Allen far more favorable matchups.   Osemele is a big one to stay there, giving Herbert time is how you expose DEN's D - teams that have protected the QB well, can exploit the few weaknesses Fangio's scheme has (Fangio is so good at confusing QB's first reads, it's usually the 2nd/3rd read that beats us, why the D does so well overall, and also able to limit points allowed, given how much smaller the windows are there).

Staley's done a fantastic job of adjusting to their run D flaws by going 8-in-box, but it still depends so much on James/Bosa being disruptive.   GM Telesco needs to draft a DT force like Georgia's DT Jordan Davis next year.  It's literally their glaring weakness.    Hopefully his blind spot on devaluing run stuffing DT ends.    For this week, sell out and make Drew Lock beat you.    That generally works out well for DEN's opponents.  

Yeah we definitely need another DT and probably NT as well. Justin Jones is also the guy who has kept our run defense respectable. One of the reasons our run D was so horrible earlier on was because he was injured. We definitely missed him this past Sunday.