What moves will Andrew Berry make at the Quarterback Position this Offseason?

[MWil23]

2 hours ago, brownie man said:

But to be honest. I already know he's never going to be a top 10 guy. I'm just going to be ready to Alex Smith his *** any anytime if the opportunity presents itself. Alex Smith was number 1 overall. Just gotta keep bringing in talent to this roster until you get the chance to draft the next Mahomes or Rogers, a first rounder you actually want to develop. 

I've never understood the Alex Smith comparison at all whatsoever. Smith was a solid and capable game manager who excelled in the short game, played largely turnover free football in his prime, was pretty athletic, but limited downfield. He's basically the complete inverse of Baker.

Baker is an old Brett Favre. He makes some "WOW" throws, absolutely has back breaking interceptions, isn't very efficient, and outside of the pocket shows his limitations thinking that he's athletic as he used to be (see: Baker in college was a plus athlete but in the NFL he's not). They're both tough with a gunslinger mentality, and probably do better in a different era than they do in today's NFL.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

4 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I've never understood the Alex Smith comparison at all whatsoever. Smith was a solid and capable game manager who excelled in the short game, played largely turnover free football in his prime, was pretty athletic, but limited downfield. He's basically the complete inverse of Baker.

Baker is an old Brett Favre. He makes some "WOW" throws, absolutely has back breaking interceptions, isn't very efficient, and outside of the pocket shows his limitations thinking that he's athletic as he used to be (see: Baker in college was a plus athlete but in the NFL he's not). They're both tough with a gunslinger mentality, and probably do better in a different era than they do in today's NFL.

If we’re being honest Baker did a pretty damned good job of playing the game manager role early in the season.  Pre injury he had like an 80% completion percentage and 3 picks through 8 weeks.

When it became apparent we couldn’t score with our conservative offense, he definitely started pressing and the wheels fell off at the end.

His 13 picks aren’t awful, 10th most in the league, however 7 of the 13 came in the last 3 games and 10/13 in the last 6.

Even last season down the stretch and playoffs he was like 20/3 iirc.

 

Now I’m not saying the recent bad play doesn’t count or some ish, just that I do think it’s possible that he could play disciplined football because he has previously for relatively long stretches. From when things clicked for this offense last season against the Bengals to when the wheels started falling off this season (NE) Baker played 20 games, threw 28 TD’s and 6 picks.  Two of those games were in horrific weather conditions as well.  That is 100% “capable game manager” play.

I think what we’ve seen thus far is Baker is definitely not a guy who you can expect to carry a team week in week out, even at his best. But he has shown he can play winning football. 

[MWil23]

17 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

If we’re being honest Baker did a pretty damned good job of playing the game manager role early in the season.  Pre injury he had like an 80% completion percentage and 3 picks through 8 weeks.

No doubt, and there is/was reason to think parlayed with the last 8 games of 2020, this was the "new and improved" Baker. Truthfully, it's hard to gauge outliers and growth, but I'd lean towards the 4 years of turnover propensity and lack of accuracy/efficiency as the norm and view that 10 day stretch as an outlier, but I completely understand those who do not.

17 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

When it became apparent we couldn’t score with our conservative offense, he definitely started pressing and the wheels fell off at the end.

I'd argue that he is a large part of the reason that we couldn't score in our conservative offense, but I understand.

17 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

His 13 picks aren’t awful, 10th most in the league, however 7 of the 13 came in the last 3 games and 10/13 in the last 6.

True, but his TD to INT ratio as a whole this year is an abomination, as was his completion % during that stretch as well.

17 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Even last season down the stretch and playoffs he was like 20/3 iirc.

No doubt, which is why last year going into this year I ate my words and was so high on him...and maybe it's the baseball player in me on "the law of averages" and the back of the baseball card body of work stats usually balancing out, but that is how I view the past 4 years.

17 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Now I’m not saying the recent bad play doesn’t count or some ish, just that I do think it’s possible that he could play disciplined football because he has previously for relatively long stretches.

Very fair

17 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

From when things clicked for this offense last season against the Bengals to when the wheels started falling off this season (NE) Baker played 20 games, threw 28 TD’s and 6 picks.  Two of those games were in horrific weather conditions as well.  That is 100% “capable game manager” play.

I agree

However, 5 of his last 6 games he was 58% or worse on the completion % marks when his biggest selling points coming out were his "pro readiness and accuracy".

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3052587/baker-mayfield

I also agree that the past 2 weeks, the Detroit game, the Baltimore game, the New England game he was a complete liability turning it over, and bad ones at that.

17 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I think what we’ve seen thus far is Baker is definitely not a guy who you can expect to carry a team week in week out, even at his best.

This sums up my feelings as to why I'd personally move on from him, whether that's 2022 if we find someone better (not to re-hash that discussion) or definitely in 2023 and beyond. He's not a "franchise QB" you can have win you games, come from behind, execute in a 2 minute drill, or carry a team. We can all say "there are only a handful of guys who can do that", but I'd argue there's another 6-7 guys outside of the Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, etc. mix that have shown they can but have warts (Dak, Carr, Stafford, Murray, Cousins, Wilson, Lamar, Tannehill). Even if we got one of those guys in the 2nd tier, that's a major upgrade.

17 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

But he has shown he can play winning football. 

Winning in that he won't lose it for us. I don't see winning football in the 4th Quarter, 2 minute offense, etc. Even the majority of last year when he was playing good football, he had a noticeable 4th Quarter DROP. Some of that was due to how awesome our RB's were in the 4th (Nick Chubb's 10+ YPC), but some of that is also on him.

[mtmmike]

1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

If we’re being honest Baker did a pretty damned good job of playing the game manager role early in the season.  Pre injury he had like an 80% completion percentage and 3 picks through 8 weeks.

When it became apparent we couldn’t score with our conservative offense, he definitely started pressing and the wheels fell off at the end.

His 13 picks aren’t awful, 10th most in the league, however 7 of the 13 came in the last 3 games and 10/13 in the last 6.

Even last season down the stretch and playoffs he was like 20/3 iirc.

 

Now I’m not saying the recent bad play doesn’t count or some ish, just that I do think it’s possible that he could play disciplined football because he has previously for relatively long stretches. From when things clicked for this offense last season against the Bengals to when the wheels started falling off this season (NE) Baker played 20 games, threw 28 TD’s and 6 picks.  Two of those games were in horrific weather conditions as well.  That is 100% “capable game manager” play.

I think what we’ve seen thus far is Baker is definitely not a guy who you can expect to carry a team week in week out, even at his best. But he has shown he can play winning football. 

your best observation of the year.

[big poppa pump]

I was just thinking about Tannehill for some reason (and now I see there is a thread about him Gen) and was wondering how the 2 situations can be compared?

Tannehill has been a middling/solid QB, even with the Dolphins.  However, they moved on from him for a reason.  He wasn't a wow guy, and they believed it was best to move on from him.  

He has absolutely been in a better situation in Tennessee, but this year his stats look very average.  I haven't watched them much, but I know they lost their BEST offensive weapon, and maybe the best offensive weapon in the league, yet they are still the 1 seed in the AFC.

 

Skill wise (not the same traits) is Baker on this level?  Will it just not work out here, but he could have a resurgence somewhere else?  Could it still work here?  IDK....

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

47 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

No doubt, and there is/was reason to think parlayed with the last 8 games of 2020, this was the "new and improved" Baker. Truthfully, it's hard to gauge outliers and growth, but I'd lean towards the 4 years of turnover propensity and lack of accuracy/efficiency as the norm and view that 10 day stretch as an outlier, but I completely understand those who do not.

I'd argue that he is a large part of the reason that we couldn't score in our conservative offense, but I understand.

True, but his TD to INT ratio as a whole this year is an abomination, as was his completion % during that stretch as well.

No doubt, which is why last year going into this year I ate my words and was so high on him...and maybe it's the baseball player in me on "the law of averages" and the back of the baseball card body of work stats usually balancing out, but that is how I view the past 4 years.

Very fair

I agree

However, 5 of his last 6 games he was 58% or worse on the completion % marks when his biggest selling points coming out were his "pro readiness and accuracy".

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3052587/baker-mayfield

I also agree that the past 2 weeks, the Detroit game, the Baltimore game, the New England game he was a complete liability turning it over, and bad ones at that.

This sums up my feelings as to why I'd personally move on from him, whether that's 2022 if we find someone better (not to re-hash that discussion) or definitely in 2023 and beyond. He's not a "franchise QB" you can have win you games, come from behind, execute in a 2 minute drill, or carry a team. We can all say "there are only a handful of guys who can do that", but I'd argue there's another 6-7 guys outside of the Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, etc. mix that have shown they can but have warts (Dak, Carr, Stafford, Murray, Cousins, Wilson, Lamar, Tannehill). Even if we got one of those guys in the 2nd tier, that's a major upgrade.

Winning in that he won't lose it for us. I don't see winning football in the 4th Quarter, 2 minute offense, etc. Even the majority of last year when he was playing good football, he had a noticeable 4th Quarter DROP. Some of that was due to how awesome our RB's were in the 4th (Nick Chubb's 10+ YPC), but some of that is also on him.

It’s hard to argue with a lot of this. Your line about the averages on the back of the baseball card is good, and true. You are what you are at some point.

As far as the accuracy, I personally don’t see the completion percentage being a great reflection of that.  Even just looking back at Monday, he started like 1-10, but mixed in there were a few batted passes, a couple drops (or failures to make a play) by Hooper, etc.

Maybe I’m overestimating how often this has happened, but I feel like there’s been a lot of drops on easy/routine passes this year.  OBJ has a number of them, Hooper a ton it feels like.

I guess when I watch him play I don’t think to myself “where tf were you throwing that” all that often. Near misses, but gives guys a chance to make a play.

He’s also 5th in the league in IAY, so there’s not a lot of dinking and dunking.  And maybe that’s part of the problem.  Maybe he needs to take more of the easy throws and check downs.  Of course then it becomes a question of whether the check down/easier option guy is capable of actually making the plays necessary.  For example if it’s 3rd and 7, and there’s a guy open 3 yards deep, can they make the catch and pick up the first? To say we don’t have dynamic playmakers would be an understatement.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

8 minutes ago, big poppa pump said:

I was just thinking about Tannehill for some reason (and now I see there is a thread about him Gen) and was wondering how the 2 situations can be compared?

Tannehill has been a middling/solid QB, even with the Dolphins.  However, they moved on from him for a reason.  He wasn't a wow guy, and they believed it was best to move on from him.  

He has absolutely been in a better situation in Tennessee, but this year his stats look very average.  I haven't watched them much, but I know they lost their BEST offensive weapon, and maybe the best offensive weapon in the league, yet they are still the 1 seed in the AFC.

 

Skill wise (not the same traits) is Baker on this level?  Will it just not work out here, but he could have a resurgence somewhere else?  Could it still work here?  IDK....

I think Tannehill is a decent comp as neither are able to go out and win you games on their own, but both can win as part of a well rounded team.

Comparing the two this season Tannehill has thrown the ball 100 more times, has 450 more yards, the same TD’s and the same picks. They’ve had issues with injuries, as have we, but AJ Brown is head and shoulders better than anything we have at WR.  Julio has been hurt a lot, but still better than what we’ve had.  Perhaps comparable this season to OBJ.

They’re winning games for sure, but they’re inconsistent as hell.  They’ve lost to the Jets and Houston, but managed to beat the Chiefs and Bills.

Either way I’d love for 1/4 of our season to be against the Texans and Jags.  Makes for a much easier path to the playoffs and allows for a mulligan or two, even against one of those teams. The AFC north is tough, every year.

[candyman93]

I’ll throw another name out there who could be cheap: Jimmy G

 

He’s elite on 3rd down. His problem is that he’s had injury problems and he’s not an elite athlete.

 

He can lead a team to a super bowl.
 

 

[MWil23]

36 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

He’s also 5th in the league in IAY, so there’s not a lot of dinking and dunking.  And maybe that’s part of the problem.  Maybe he needs to take more of the easy throws and check downs.  Of course then it becomes a question of whether the check down/easier option guy is capable of actually making the plays necessary.  For example if it’s 3rd and 7, and there’s a guy open 3 yards deep, can they make the catch and pick up the first? To say we don’t have dynamic playmakers would be an understatement.

It's another thing that I'm not sure about. Is it scheme, or is it that he's not going through his progressions? It's something only the staff knows. I'd lean towards him not going through his progressions (that boot was a great example as you always go short to long in boot and flood patterns, so he's not seeing those short and intermediate or he's refusing to take what defenses give him).

You're not wrong about the lack of playmakers (that first Baltimore game was a perfect example), but I've also seen dudes like Aaron Rodgers (not saying the guy we have should be awesome by any stretch) turn dumpster squads into 100+ yard per game dudes because he throws them open (See: This year's Arizona game).

I'd personally lean towards batted balls and the sheer volume being a factor. He's first in the league since he came out and it's really not close. I think that's part of the "accuracy" component. It's a killed play off the bat or a turnover. There are a lot of factors as to why (I mentioned yesterday how it's not all height related).

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

2 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

I’ll throw another name out there who could be cheap: Jimmy G

 

He’s elite on 3rd down. His problem is that he’s had injury problems and he’s not an elite athlete.

 

He can lead a team to a super bowl.
 

 

Idk man…

He’s got 19/10 this with exactly one productive season under his belt.

He’s also got a top 3 TE a young first round WR and arguably the most exciting skill player in the league in Deebo.

I have my doubts he better here with DPJ, Juice and Hooper.

This is a change for sake of change, not actual improvement.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

It's another thing that I'm not sure about. Is it scheme, or is it that he's not going through his progressions? It's something only the staff knows. I'd lean towards him not going through his progressions (that boot was a great example as you always go short to long in boot and flood patterns, so he's not seeing those short and intermediate or he's refusing to take what defenses give him).

like you said, no way to know for sure, but I get the sense he predetermines where he’s going with the ball based on presnap reads and is stubborn to come off that determination because he trusts his arm.  And that’s not a bad thing, every great QB sees a matchup and says “lol imma roast this mfer”, but you’ve got to pick your spots with that and more times than not take what’s given.

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

You're not wrong about the lack of playmakers (that first Baltimore game was a perfect example), but I've also seen dudes like Aaron Rodgers (not saying the guy we have should be awesome by any stretch) turn dumpster squads into 100+ yard per game dudes because he throws them open (See: This year's Arizona game).

I’d argue that was the whole second half of last season lol.  Our receivers are not good.  How bad is debatable I guess, but not good.

I’ll die on the hill that Breshad Perriman would have been a top 3 receiver for us had we signed him.  Dude was on a practice squad and not only could he have made our roster, he could have been a contributor.  A starter even.

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I'd personally lean towards batted balls and the sheer volume being a factor. He's first in the league since he came out and it's really not close. I think that's part of the "accuracy" component. It's a killed play off the bat or a turnover. There are a lot of factors as to why (I mentioned yesterday how it's not all height related).

I don’t mind discussing batted balls, but yeah, I’m not doing the dumb height conversation.

I think a lot of his issues there is back to those predetermined reads and not looking defenders off, paired with often looking skittish in the pocket.  He’s not great at moving in the pocket to manipulate defenders and create passing lanes.

[dawgdish]

2 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I don’t mind discussing batted balls, but yeah, I’m not doing the dumb height conversation.

I think a lot of his issues there is back to those predetermined reads and not looking defenders off, paired with often looking skittish in the pocket.  He’s not great at moving in the pocket to manipulate defenders and create passing lanes.

Yep - I don't recall batted balls being nearly as much of an issue with other guys of similar stature like Brees or Flutie. They had enough movement in the pocket to slide into open throwing lanes and ability to move defenses with their eyes. 

Edited January 6, 2022 by dawgdish

[mtmmike]

2 hours ago, MWil23 said:

No doubt, and there is/was reason to think parlayed with the last 8 games of 2020, this was the "new and improved" Baker. Truthfully, it's hard to gauge outliers and growth, but I'd lean towards the 4 years of turnover propensity and lack of accuracy/efficiency as the norm and view that 10 day stretch as an outlier, but I completely understand those who do not.

I'd argue that he is a large part of the reason that we couldn't score in our conservative offense, but I understand.

True, but his TD to INT ratio as a whole this year is an abomination, as was his completion % during that stretch as well.

No doubt, which is why last year going into this year I ate my words and was so high on him...and maybe it's the baseball player in me on "the law of averages" and the back of the baseball card body of work stats usually balancing out, but that is how I view the past 4 years.

Very fair

I agree

However, 5 of his last 6 games he was 58% or worse on the completion % marks when his biggest selling points coming out were his "pro readiness and accuracy".

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3052587/baker-mayfield

I also agree that the past 2 weeks, the Detroit game, the Baltimore game, the New England game he was a complete liability turning it over, and bad ones at that.

This sums up my feelings as to why I'd personally move on from him, whether that's 2022 if we find someone better (not to re-hash that discussion) or definitely in 2023 and beyond. He's not a "franchise QB" you can have win you games, come from behind, execute in a 2 minute drill, or carry a team. We can all say "there are only a handful of guys who can do that", but I'd argue there's another 6-7 guys outside of the Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, etc. mix that have shown they can but have warts (Dak, Carr, Stafford, Murray, Cousins, Wilson, Lamar, Tannehill). Even if we got one of those guys in the 2nd tier, that's a major upgrade.

Winning in that he won't lose it for us. I don't see winning football in the 4th Quarter, 2 minute offense, etc. Even the majority of last year when he was playing good football, he had a noticeable 4th Quarter DROP. Some of that was due to how awesome our RB's were in the 4th (Nick Chubb's 10+ YPC), but some of that is also on him.

ok lets assume right how do you fix It giving 2 drafts with Mayfield as my Qb

start fixing.

[mtmmike]

On 12/29/2021 at 6:18 AM, candyman93 said:

Good post Mike

 

What are you doing to celebrate the new year Mike?

in the office today so have time to post 

to me the biggest problems facing the browns 

A Special teams 

B wide receivers we went from a top 5 team with Mayfield as a qb to 30th.

looking for answers and just getting some takes on the draft.

 

[mtmmike]

2 hours ago, big poppa pump said:

I was just thinking about Tannehill for some reason (and now I see there is a thread about him Gen) and was wondering how the 2 situations can be compared?

Tannehill has been a middling/solid QB, even with the Dolphins.  However, they moved on from him for a reason.  He wasn't a wow guy, and they believed it was best to move on from him.  

He has absolutely been in a better situation in Tennessee, but this year his stats look very average.  I haven't watched them much, but I know they lost their BEST offensive weapon, and maybe the best offensive weapon in the league, yet they are still the 1 seed in the AFC.

 

Skill wise (not the same traits) is Baker on this level?  Will it just not work out here, but he could have a resurgence somewhere else?  Could it still work here?  IDK....

excellent point.