WheatieMan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, MWil23 said: Not in the red zone. If you succeed 50% of the time which is conservative given the 2 yard designation, it’s worth the points you leave on the board parlayed with advantageous field position for the extra possession differential and 4 points. They were at the 19 in a playoff game. No TD guaranteed. It’s losing football, but they got away with it so who cares? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackywabbit Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Really impressive drive by the Chargers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, WheatieMan said: They were at the 19 in a playoff game. No TD guaranteed. It’s losing football, but they got away with it so who cares? The bot says go for it and if you fail the field possession advantage is worthwhile in the under 3 yard simulation down 2 possessions early. It’s a good call. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Kicking a fg on 4th and 2 in your opponent territory should be an exception based on the situation, not the default 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlaqOptic Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Why isn't one of these teams blowing the other out? I don't like how close this score is! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, MWil23 said: I’ll never be talked out of basic math, the laws of probability, and the bot simulation for down and distance inside the 30. Nerd Edit: I actually do believe teams are way way way too conservative. But idk. I also am I dumbass who believes in momentum swings. Which can't be measured and constantly fluctuates like that random *** 9ers game Edited January 10, 2022 by Norm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackywabbit Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Odds that Raiders coach is smart enough to use his timeouts on defense to save time for a 2 minute drive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlaqOptic Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, Norm said: Pressure being overrated is an ESPN level hot take Pressures are important. But I've literally heard that Maxx Crosby is having a better season than TJ Watt because he has more pressures (according to PFF). Sacks automatically kill the play. A pressure could still result in a first down. You have to look at ALL pass rush metrics together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, Norm said: Nerd Meh, it’s helped me in the last decade of coaching. It doesn’t alwYs take into account possessions late in games so it has flaws but it’s worthwhile more often than not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, MWil23 said: Meh, it’s helped me in the last decade of coaching. It doesn’t alwYs take into account possessions late in games so it has flaws but it’s worthwhile more often than not. Check my edit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WheatieMan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, MWil23 said: The bot says go for it and if you fail the field possession advantage is worthwhile in the under 3 yard simulation down 2 possessions early. It’s a good call. It’s too much respect for the Raiders offense. I can buy it against KC or Ben or Manning in prime years. Too much respect for Carr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, BlaqOptic said: Pressures are important. But I've literally heard that Maxx Crosby is having a better season than TJ Watt because he has more pressures (according to PFF). Sacks automatically kill the play. A pressure could still result in a first down. You have to look at ALL pass rush metrics together. Absolutely on your side now. Just like Packers fans with Gary and his meaningless pressures that didn't amount to anything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaidersAreOne Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 This D man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, BlaqOptic said: Pressures are important. But I've literally heard that Maxx Crosby is having a better season than TJ Watt because he has more pressures (according to PFF). Sacks automatically kill the play. A pressure could still result in a first down. You have to look at ALL pass rush metrics together. A sack isn't a "sack" either but yeah.. You know there's grey. Nothing is perfect 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, WheatieMan said: It’s too much respect for the Raiders offense. I can buy it against KC or Ben or Manning in prime years. Too much respect for Carr. This I understand, but I feel like both of these teams have gotten lucky. Herbert is talented don’t get me wrong but these teams have gotten random breaks this year. I guess that’s just football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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