SBXISBXVSBXVIII Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Jalen Collins cleared waivers. Nobody wanted him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightTrainLane Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Rich7sena said: Adrian Clayborn I believe will be a free agent and is having one of the best seasons of his career. Some people don't seem to like Ezekiel Ansah but I think he could revitalize his career given new scenery. There are a few others but I really want to pair a veteran free agent with a first round pick pass rusher. My current projection has the team signing Clayborn and drafting Harold Landry. Clayborn gets most of the early down work and could even bump inside while Landry rushes from the outside in obvious passing downs. Clayborn is showing out because it's a contract year. Not rocket science. And he well get paid by someone like Wash, Det or TB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich7sena Posted November 23, 2017 Author Share Posted November 23, 2017 1 minute ago, NightTrainLane said: Clayborn is showing out because it's a contract year. Not rocket science. And he well get paid by someone like Wash, Det or TB. It's not rocket science because it hasn't been proven. Players don't predictably play better or worse when they're on contract years; it's a myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightTrainLane Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Rich7sena said: It's not rocket science because it hasn't been proven. Players don't predictably play better or worse when they're on contract years; it's a myth. Haha, you're saying it's a myth that guys try harder and therefore produce more when they have a chance to cash in this business... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich7sena Posted November 23, 2017 Author Share Posted November 23, 2017 17 minutes ago, NightTrainLane said: Haha, you're saying it's a myth that guys try harder and therefore produce more when they have a chance to cash in this business... Yes because there is no evidence to back it up. Players might be playing harder (there's no real way of knowing one way or the other), but production does not discernibly increase during contract years. It's a convenient thing to believe but it simply isn't the case. http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/13248280/nfl-skill-players-overwhelmingly-perform-better-contract-years-fantasy-football http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/contract-year-phenomenon-revisited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightTrainLane Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 37 minutes ago, Rich7sena said: Yes because there is no evidence to back it up. Players might be playing harder (there's no real way of knowing one way or the other), but production does not discernibly increase during contract years. It's a convenient thing to believe but it simply isn't the case. http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/13248280/nfl-skill-players-overwhelmingly-perform-better-contract-years-fantasy-football http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/contract-year-phenomenon-revisited I read those articles before but I still see instances that clearly show how a players production jumps the year before free agency but like you said there is no real way of knowing whether that is effort, scheme, health or just the right mix of everything happening at the right time for them. But to overlook the chance that this guy maybe trying harder because it translates to millions of dollars in bonuses or guarantees is beyond stupid. Well, let's just look at the player we are actually talking about. In the 3 years he has played all 16 games he has 7.5(2011), 5.5(2013) and 3 sacks(2015). Notice the pattern. He has blown out his knee twice and his bicep once to head to IR in 3 of his 6 accrued seasons. Every shot he has had to cash in he has dealt with an injury. Now that brings us to this year. His sack stats look good only because he played vs Dallas turnstile backup LT Chaz Green instead of all world Tyron Smith. I mean he had 6 six sacks in one game. A great achievement but hardly proof he is even on Irvin's level. More of an indictment of Green. Evidence shows both Clayborn and Anash will be steps down from Irvin. Not sure where the rational is coming from that they will be better other than the fact they are the best options on the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chali21 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 3 hours ago, Rich7sena said: Adrian Clayborn I believe will be a free agent and is having one of the best seasons of his career. Some people don't seem to like Ezekiel Ansah but I think he could revitalize his career given new scenery. There are a few others but I really want to pair a veteran free agent with a first round pick pass rusher. My current projection has the team signing Clayborn and drafting Harold Landry. Clayborn gets most of the early down work and could even bump inside while Landry rushes from the outside in obvious passing downs. Three quarters of Clayborn's sacks came off of a back up LT who had their first ever start. He even said in interviews after that cowboys game that he's not pass rushing player. So really the raiders wouldn't be getting a guy who could be a true threat to take pressure off of Mack. I like Ansah and I think he has more talent but he's had way too many injuries and the think is injures slow players down very fast. I think he's like the DE version of DMC lots of potential but he can't stay on the field. What I'm trying to say is that any "pass rusher" that lands in free agency is going to be massively flawed. It's a premium position on a team and as long as there are Tom Brady's and Aaron Rodgers out there no one is going to want to lose their guys. The Raiders would be better served looking to the draft to get their pass rushers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich7sena Posted November 23, 2017 Author Share Posted November 23, 2017 1 hour ago, NightTrainLane said: Evidence shows both Clayborn and Anash will be steps down from Irvin. Not sure where the rational is coming from that they will be better other than the fact they are the best options on the market. What evidence? Irvin has been a non-factor in pass rush. My argument for signing Clayborn doesn't stem from him being a dominant pass rusher (he's not and never has been), but he is one of the better base ends in the NFL. He would give the team a better pass rush and near equal run defense production at a similar or less price than Irvin will command next year. Here is my quote from the last page: My current projection has the team signing Clayborn and drafting Harold Landry. Clayborn gets most of the early down work and could even bump inside while Landry rushes from the outside in obvious passing downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightTrainLane Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 40 minutes ago, Rich7sena said: What evidence? Irvin has been a non-factor in pass rush. My argument for signing Clayborn doesn't stem from him being a dominant pass rusher (he's not and never has been), but he is one of the better base ends in the NFL. He would give the team a better pass rush and near equal run defense production at a similar or less price than Irvin will command next year. Here is my quote from this page: My current projection has the team signing Clayborn and drafting Harold Landry. Clayborn gets most of the early down work and could even bump inside while Landry rushes from the outside in obvious passing downs. The evidence is production and reliability. Without the Dallas game anomaly Clayborn's production as a base end is subpar at best. GTFOH with him being among the better base ends in the league haha. Bosa, Bennett, Campbell, Dunlap, Griffin, Wake and Lawerance are the best base ends and Clayborn IS NOT among them. He is a rotational DE that had a good game vs bad competition and it has you gassed up. Hell, he is the 3rd best base end on his team and doesn't start unless there is an injury. Mario is a better option at Base end and is already on the team. Clayborn's pass rush is even at best with Irvin's and Irvin is much better vs the run. If were going to move to an even 4-3 (which is debatable because Pagano runs an even 3-4) then it would make sense to move Mario to his natural DE position opposite Mack on the end, let Ellis go in FA and and draft another penetrating DT. I understand wanting to upgrade the pass rush but we need to settle on a system before we decide who should be brought in. If we stick with Pagano's 3-4, Clayborn doesn't fit and if we move to an even 4-3 like JDR used to run we have a better option already on the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich7sena Posted November 23, 2017 Author Share Posted November 23, 2017 37 minutes ago, NightTrainLane said: The evidence is production and reliability. Without the Dallas game anomaly Clayborn's production as a base end is subpar at best. GTFOH with him being among the better base ends in the league haha. Bosa, Bennett, Campbell, Dunlap, Griffin, Wake and Lawerance are the best base ends and Clayborn IS NOT among them. He is a rotational DE that had a good game vs bad competition and it has you gassed up. Hell, he is the 3rd best base end on his team and doesn't start unless there is an injury. Mario is a better option at Base end and is already on the team. Clayborn's pass rush is even at best with Irvin's and Irvin is much better vs the run. If were going to move to an even 4-3 (which is debatable because Pagano runs an even 3-4) then it would make sense to move Mario to his natural DE position opposite Mack on the end, let Ellis go in FA and and draft another penetrating DT. I understand wanting to upgrade the pass rush but we need to settle on a system before we decide who should be brought in. If we stick with Pagano's 3-4, Clayborn doesn't fit and if we move to an even 4-3 like JDR used to run we have a better option already on the team. Stop moving goal posts. Clayborn absolutely has been one of the better base ends this season. Among the better base ends doesn't mean he's among the best base ends -- I figure you'd be able to make that distinction. Clayborn ranks 10th among edge defenders on PFF. Does that mean he's the 10th best edge defender or that I'd take him over guys he's over like Griffen or Clowney? No, but it is a testament to how well Clayborn has played this season. And no, he's not the 3rd best base end on Atlanta -- or at least that hasn't been the case this season. He's getting the most snaps week to week this season and grades as their best pass rusher and second best run defender. The main reason he's part of a rotation in Atlanta is because of the depth on the edge for the team (Beasley, Reed, Shelby, McKinley). And as teams like Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Seattle have pointed out: you can't have too many defensive lineman in a rotation. Mario might be a better or just as good base end, but I prefer him on the inside. I do anticipate (or at least hoping for) a move to 4-3 which is why I advocate bringing in more pure 6/7-techs than Irvin. I wouldn't mind keeping Irvin in a move to a 4-3 if Irvin moves to the second level as a SLB (similar to Anthony Barr). My main beef is his price tag. I wouldn't mind extending his $8+ million owed in the next two seasons to 2 years years guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightTrainLane Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rich7sena said: Stop moving goal posts. Clayborn absolutely has been one of the better base ends this season. Among the better base ends doesn't mean he's among the best base ends -- I figure you'd be able to make that distinction. Clayborn ranks 10th among edge defenders on PFF. Does that mean he's the 10th best edge defender or that I'd take him over guys he's over like Griffen or Clowney? No, but it is a testament to how well Clayborn has played this season. And no, he's not the 3rd best base end on Atlanta -- or at least that hasn't been the case this season. He's getting the most snaps week to week this season and grades as their best pass rusher and second best run defender. The main reason he's part of a rotation in Atlanta is because of the depth on the edge for the team (Beasley, Reed, Shelby, McKinley). Mario might be a better or just as good base end, but I prefer him on the inside. I do anticipate (or at least hoping for) a move to 4-3 which is why I advocate bringing in more pure 6/7-techs than Irvin. I wouldn't mind keeping Irvin in a move to a 4-3 if Irvin moves to the second level as a SLB (similar to Anthony Barr). My main beef is his price tag. I wouldn't mind extending his $8+ million owed in the next two seasons to 2 years years guaranteed. SMH I'm not moving anything. Just point out the obvious. So "among the better this season" means above average, which I agree with. It also backs up the line of thinking that this bump in play could be a flash season to cash in rather than a true grade of his consistent and continued ability. His Pff grade is hugely influenced by the anomaly Dallas game. One of the problems with Pff. He got a big bump vs the run and the pass after that game understandably. He is playing more snaps because Upshaw has been injured on and off. If we do make the move to 4-3 then Mario is much better as a base end then in the middle and yes, Bruce would stay at SLB. I see Mario as more Michael Bennett than Aaron Donald if that makes sense. Their are 7-8 very good combo 1-3 tech DTs (Wilkins, Nnadi, Hurst, Payne, Lotulelei, Mckenzie, Vita) toward the top of the draft that would fit on the line with Mack, Vanderdoes and Mario. Then if we can add a few sitiational pass rushers to fill out the rotation. Clayborn may fit there but I doubt we have the best offer with Mario already at the spot. Someone will most likely over spend for him thinking he can be a starting base end, which I don't believe to be his best position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich7sena Posted November 23, 2017 Author Share Posted November 23, 2017 1 minute ago, NightTrainLane said: If we do make the move to 4-3 then Mario is much better as a base end then in the middle and yes, Bruce would stay at SLB. I see Mario as more Michael Bennett than Aaron Donald if that makes sense. Their are 7-8 very good combo 1-3 tech DTs (Wilkins, Nnadi, Hurst, Payne, Lotulelei, Mckenzie, Vita) toward the top of the draft that would fit on the line with Mack, Vanderdoes and Mario. Then if we can add a few sitiational pass rushers to fill out the rotation. Clayborn may fit there but I doubt we have the best offer with Mario already at the spot. Someone will most likely over spend for him thinking he can be a starting base end, which I don't believe to be his best position I don't think Clayborn is going to earn nearly as much as most people think. He'll be 30 by the start of next season and I'd bet he wants a longer term deal (3-ish years) rather than a short term "prove it" deal to carry him into retirement. I think he'll sign in the $4-6 million range, which would be at least $2.25 million cheaper than Irvin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightTrainLane Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 43 minutes ago, Rich7sena said: I don't think Clayborn is going to earn nearly as much as most people think. He'll be 30 by the start of next season and I'd bet he wants a longer term deal (3-ish years) rather than a short term "prove it" deal to carry him into retirement. I think he'll sign in the $4-6 million range, which would be at least $2.25 million cheaper than Irvin. But seeing as, in this scenario, they play different positions and are very different players with different roles that makes no difference. We could have both tho, I'd rather get someone in the draft as a back up DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich7sena Posted November 23, 2017 Author Share Posted November 23, 2017 43 minutes ago, NightTrainLane said: But seeing as, in this scenario, they play different positions and are very different players with different roles that makes no difference. We could have both tho, I'd rather get someone in the draft as a back up DE. They effectively play the same role unless Irvin is moved off the line of scrimmage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightTrainLane Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, Rich7sena said: They effectively play the same role unless Irvin is moved off the line of scrimmage. The SLB can play outside the base end at times just like he did with Seattle when they had Avril - Mebane - Rubin - Bennett as the base dline and Irvin as the SLB. Sometimes he would be on the line outside Bennett and sometime he would move around and play where needed or where he could apply pressure. So no, in this scenario (moving to the 4-3) they don't play the same position. Clayborn is a DE that has his hand on the ground every play. Only thing they share is setting the edge at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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