A million ways to be wrong: Steelers Mock off-season

[Dcash4]

Didn't plan on doing this until cuts started happening and we got a better picture of what might be available, but I had some time and boredom ultimately won. 

What I am using: Trying to build this semi-realistically where I don't have full control, so I am using a combination of Spotrac, overthecap, FanSpeak off-season simulator, and PFF draft simulator. I am using FanSpeak for a more realistic look at potentially losing guys I want to other teams signing them or not accepting my terms – but I am not using their dollar values. Sorry, Orlando Brown is not signing a 3 year deal for $8M per….I also will not do any trades. 

Financials: Not going to dive too far into details and will be using nice round numbers as estimates. We will just keep everything in the ballpark of reality, but I am not getting nitty gritty with the details. There is TON of potential salary cap space we can manufacture. Like we probably restructure TJ, but I am not going to dive into the exact amount. For the purposes of this, I am just going to keep it simple and say we are going to net ourselves around $30M of usable cap for additional spending.

Notes: This mock operates under the assumption that Tuitt is back. Until we know more, he is on the roster, he is still a good player…so I am keeping him. Ya’ll wouldn’t like my replacement anyway (which is rolling the dice on Taven Bryan and mixing Alualu, Wormley, and Loudermilk for a year). Also, some guys on RFA or someone like Taco Charlton I didn’t add financials to. It’s the minimum of what they can be offered. If they said no, realistically I would just be adding a minimum guy anyway. 

Ultimate Goal: I am approaching this off-season as a building up of the total foundation to the team. I am applying what I mentioned I learned from the playoffs - I am NOT targeting any sort of middling QB, I am NOT paying big money to one single DB, and I am more so looking for “average” rather than home runs. I am not aiming for 22 pro bowlers, I am aiming for 22 players that are average or better.

 

Off-Season:

Cut: Banner, Schobert
Restructure: TJ, maybe Cam. 
Extensions: Minkah, no cap change. Derek Watt, saving $2M this year. Chris Boswell, save $2M

Free Agency: First year cap hit in ( )

James Daniel, G; 4 years, $32M ($5M)
Matt Pryor, T; 3 years, $18M ($4M)
Josey Jewell, ILB; 3 years, $12M, ($2M)
Justin Reid, S; 2 years, $10M, ($3M)
Levi Wallace, CB; 4 years, $40M ($6M)
Ahkello Witherspoon, CB; 3 years, $24M ($5M)
Isaiah McKenzie, WR/RET; 3 years $18M ($4M)

Total year 1 cap: $29M

Analysis:
- Going back in history, players signed to 3+ year deals usually have a first year cap hit around the 50% mark of their AAV. Keeping things simple, I went with 60% (rounded) as all of these first year hits. 

- Net Wallace and Witherspoon for the price of Carlton Davis/JC Jackson. 

- Like where we are with the OL. Pryor is a bit of a gamble, but he played really well last year in limited action and has RT/LT flexibility Not a lot of tackles I like in FA that fit the mold and I think Moore gets the first crack at LT. But Pryor can start at RT, play LT if needed, or end up being a quality swing tackle if we overdraft the position if I can get a project T in the draft (looking at you Tyler Smith and Rasheed Walker). Connor Williams has been my crush, but I do not think he is worth the potential $4M+ difference between him and Daniel. 

- So we brought back Matt Canada? Here is McKenzie as your new slot, gadget, and return man. Ray Ray actually turned down my offer, so I just went and got someone I think is better with more upside. 

- Josey Jewell is well suited for the dirty role next to Bush. Upgrade over Spillane. I would rather try to build up around Bush and have the ying to his yang rather than try to find a better suited athlete as a potential replacement. Targeted Elandon Roberts with Brian Flores here, but someone else paid more. I'm not looking to massively upgrade this position, rather help Bush maximize our 2 full day draft investment in him. 

- Edmunds didn’t accept my $5M per offer, so ….f ‘em. Reid fits a multiple personnel role. And I already really like the versatility of Sutton going back to the Slot/S role. Between him, Norwood, and Reid - I like our nickel and dime defense options. I see his contract as more of a value building option in what is really a deep Safety class. 

 

NFL Draft:

1.20 - Zion Johnson; G, BC
- I really like Zion, but one of the things I like best is that he may have position flexibility in the middle. I am drafting him as a G…but if I am ultimately able to play him at C and have Dotson and Green fight for one spot, I am cool with that. I had options of Green or Willis here, but I am a big fan of Zion. 

2.52 - Travis Jones; DL, Uconn
- Couldn’t pass him up. The DL room is going to be a little crammed, but as we have learned that’s a good thing. Probably actually helps keep Heyward fresh as he continues his journey into his mid-thirties. 

3.84 - Skyy Moore; WR, W.Mich
- Also could’t pass him up, but also not sure he makes it here. Slot/Z option and pushed Claypool and provides a nice receiver touch behind newly acquired McKenzie in the slot. Tyler Smith was available here, but I really do like Moore. 

4.138 - Bryan Cook; S, Cinci
- Edmunds replacement. I have Reid on a rebound contract, so maybe the starter by year 3.

6.207 - Luke Fortner; C, Kentucky
- This is a player who played center from Kentucky.

7.221 - Jelani Woods; TE, Virginia
- Top 2 TE’s are set, depth competition with nice size. 

7.237 - Connor Heyward; TE, Mich State
- Family values. The world needs ditch diggers too. Can he come ball out on special teams?

 

Depth Chart:

QB: Mason, Haskins, Dobbs
RB: Najee, Snell, McFarland
FB: Watt
WR: Johnson, Claypool, McKenzie, Moore, White
TE: Freiermuth, Gentry, Woods
LT: Moore
LG: Johnson, Dotson
😄 Green, Hassenaur, Fortner
RG: Daniel, LeGlue
RT: Pryor, Haeg

DE: Heyward, Tuitt, Wormley, Loudermilk, Jones
NT: Alualu, Adams
OLB: Watt, Highsmith, Tuszka, Charlton
ILB: Bush, Jewell, Spillane, Johnson, Allen
CB: Wallace, Witherspoon, Sutton, Pierre
S: Fitzpatrick, Reid, Norwood, Killebrew, Cook

K: Boswell
P: Harvin
LS: Kuntz

Signed as resign/RFA, Free Agent period signing, drafted

 

Recap: 

- Feel good about the OL. I really like adding Johnson and Daniel, but if Pryor follows up last season’s solid play then I would be really happy. Growth from Moore, Green, or Dotson turn this into a nice unit fairly quickly…but updating 3 of 5 positions is a good start in one offseason. 

- Kinda loving the WR room. I would let Johnson play out his contract and have him be my franchise tag candidate the following year. I like the versatility in a Canada based offense that Skyy and McKenzie provide.

- Front seven could be an absolute nightmare….

- Really like the versatility of our DB group. I think that would be the strength. Do we lock down and shut out? Probably not. But I think the overall floor - and ceiling - has been drastically raised. Combine that with our pass rush. Woof. 

Welp, there it is. Tear it up. 

[43M]

Cant tear it up too much since, for the most part, it feels very much like a Steelers offseason.

The only thing Ill say, and Ive said it a million times.....I see no way we dont bring in a single veteran QB.   Not a high priced one, but a guy like Trubisky or Brissett.    No way we dont add at least one QB.

However, I would roll with our current QB stable over drafting any QB early or trading for one.

Edited February 23, 2022 by 43M

[Dcash4]

13 minutes ago, 43M said:

The only thing Ill say, and Ive said it a million times.....I see no way we dont bring in a single veteran QB.   Not a high priced one, but a guy like Trubisky or Brissett.    No way we dont add at least one QB.

However, I would roll with our current QB stable over drafting any QB early or trading for one.

I agree, I think they will bring one in. I just really wish they wouldn't. It doesn't change a ton about the trajectory of this team over Mason and Haskins, but it would change our ability to net multiple starters in FA to build that foundation moving forward. 

Trubisky and Mariota probably cost somewhere around $7-10M to be a starter. I just can't at those prices. But it will definitely happen. 

[mwalker]

1 hour ago, 43M said:

Cant tear it up too much since, for the most part, it feels very much like a Steelers offseason.

The only thing Ill say, and Ive said it a million times.....I see no way we dont bring in a single veteran QB.   Not a high priced one, but a guy like Trubisky or Brissett.    No way we dont add at least one QB.

However, I would roll with our current QB stable over drafting any QB early or trading for one.

Agree with this. It's quite realistic with a 'Steelers lens' - but a new QB is coming from somewhere.
 

[cjfollett]

1 hour ago, Dcash4 said:

I agree, I think they will bring one in. I just really wish they wouldn't. It doesn't change a ton about the trajectory of this team over Mason and Haskins, but it would change our ability to net multiple starters in FA to build that foundation moving forward. 

Trubisky and Mariota probably cost somewhere around $7-10M to be a starter. I just can't at those prices. But it will definitely happen. 

My hope would be Trubisky or Mariota sign a 1-2 year prove it deal with a legit chance to start. Neither one is likely going to start where they are now, and I'm not sure there are many places more attractive than the opportunity in Pittsburgh. 

My fear is the Steelers draft one of these QBs in 22.

My nightmare is they trade up for one 🥺

[August4th]

seeing the depth chart for QB/RB made me depressed for 5 minutes

[Dcash4]

31 minutes ago, August4th said:

seeing the depth chart for QB/RB made me depressed for 5 minutes

Haha I get that. My thoughts on RB though are two fold: 

1) Najee ain’t coming off the field in a Tomlin world

2) we drafted running backs for the last 24 consecutive years. We have made our bed, time to lay in it. Vet minimum or UDFA, but we gonna pay our dues there and commit resources to elsewhere. i very honestly didn’t search for any potential 1 year vet minimum guys here, so I’m sure we could find one. I just didn’t care to look. 

[Dcash4]

44 minutes ago, cjfollett said:

My hope would be Trubisky or Mariota sign a 1-2 year prove it deal with a legit chance to start. Neither one is likely going to start where they are now, and I'm not sure there are many places more attractive than the opportunity in Pittsburgh. 

If you could get me either of those guys for a max of $3m on a first year cap hit, I would do it. But you most likely can’t do that without a second year, which I doubt they would commit to. 

Tyrod signed for $5.5m last year. Keenan for $6m. Foles signed for $8m per. If I am trubisky or Mariotas agent, when the Steelers call and I know they need a starter, $10m would be my minimum. That’s too rich for me.

[AFF]

24 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

If you could get me either of those guys for a max of $3m on a first year cap hit, I would do it. But you most likely can’t do that without a second year, which I doubt they would commit to. 

Tyrod signed for $5.5m last year. Keenan for $6m. Foles signed for $8m per. If I am trubisky or Mariotas agent, when the Steelers call and I know they need a starter, $10m would be my minimum. That’s too rich for me.

Yep...even thought I wouldn’t mind Trubisky or Mariota, I just feel it’s a waste.

Some different names which I like...truthfully don’t know good Wallace is even though I’ve seen some people call him a pretty solid CB.

[43M]

1 hour ago, Dcash4 said:

If you could get me either of those guys for a max of $3m on a first year cap hit, I would do it. But you most likely can’t do that without a second year, which I doubt they would commit to. 

Tyrod signed for $5.5m last year. Keenan for $6m. Foles signed for $8m per. If I am trubisky or Mariotas agent, when the Steelers call and I know they need a starter, $10m would be my minimum. That’s too rich for me.

Then Id wait until preseason when someone is sitting at home and then ask if they are willing to take 6 or 7.

I wouldn't pay 10 for guys, as you said, arent going  give you a significant upgrade over what we already have.

 

[armsteeld]

QB, C, and ILB weren't improved in my opinion. Not a fan of Jewell. Sometimes you get what you pay for so I'd rather go for a better ILB. Levi Wallace isn't a fit for our system. In Buffalo, he was protected by a 2 High Safety. He's slow....like 4.7 slow. I have faith in Green as the Center. Love Johnson, Jones, Moore, and Cook.

[jebrick]

I love the 1st 2 picks and Woods in the 6th.  I am Meh with the rest.  If you do not know who to take in the 7th, Cole Kelly 🙂

[Dcash4]

9 hours ago, armsteeld said:

Levi Wallace isn't a fit for our system. In Buffalo, he was protected by a 2 High Safety.

IMO, Levi would fit a lot of systems, but is best suited for zone. He had two nice safeties, but they also moved them around a lot and played a decent amount of 3/robber because of their versatility. He is long and physical, which helps vs the long speed -- but with our pass rush and Minkah, I am good with that trade off. 

He is long, tough, and has a high floor vs a higher ceiling -- but at outside corner, I really just want consistency and the ability to be multiple in todays NFL. I think Levi would fit that for us. 

Others I would totally go for: Charvarius Ward, Donte Jackson...but I think their floor is lower. 

And I finally looked at RB's.... I am not worried, there's a ton of dudes. Get to august and pick your favorite vet that is sitting at home still hoping to be in the league. 

[armsteeld]

6 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

IMO, Levi would fit a lot of systems, but is best suited for zone. He had two nice safeties, but they also moved them around a lot and played a decent amount of 3/robber because of their versatility. He is long and physical, which helps vs the long speed -- but with our pass rush and Minkah, I am good with that trade off. 

He is long, tough, and has a high floor vs a higher ceiling -- but at outside corner, I really just want consistency and the ability to be multiple in todays NFL. I think Levi would fit that for us. 

Others I would totally go for: Charvarius Ward, Donte Jackson...but I think their floor is lower. 

And I finally looked at RB's.... I am not worried, there's a ton of dudes. Get to august and pick your favorite vet that is sitting at home still hoping to be in the league. 

People were comfortable with James Pierre until teams started throwing at him. Pierre ran a 4.6 but many felt his length (6'2) would help him in coverage. It didn't.

[Dcash4]

17 minutes ago, armsteeld said:

People were comfortable with James Pierre until teams started throwing at him. Pierre ran a 4.6 but many felt his length (6'2) would help him in coverage. It didn't.

James Pierre was a projection based on physicals and the unknown. He had played 27 snaps on defense prior to this season. Levi Wallace has started 52 games in 4 years of the NFL. I don't mind at all if you don't like Wallace, but comparing someone like the unknown quantity of James Pierre to a player who has already logged nearly 3,000 snaps in the NFL is pretty wack.