2023 Draft Talk

[Ozzy]

3 hours ago, swede700 said:

 

That guy is a stud, should easily be a drafted RB.  Was outstanding at the combine also and finished every drill he did by running all the way to the end zone.  If Vikings do trade Cook and do not go RB in the 3rd or 4th I would love Hull in the 6th but actually I have him going in the 5th round currently.  

 

48 minutes ago, swede700 said:

 

I would not hate his big play ability, I was disappointed he did not run at the combine and his route running and overall field drills was not all that standout compared to the rest of the guys.  Decent times for him in the 40 but I was hoping for legit 4.3 and minimum 4.4 speed but I guess not.  

 

Addison one can move around a lot more and he is a great route running similar to Thielen, not sure Johnston is that and you cannot move him around as much.  

[Ozzy]

Interesting stat, looks like Addison is a totally legit deep threat which is no surprise.  Surprised Johnston is not on the list but this helps show that if both WRs are there and they want a WR, Addison should be the pick.  

[Dr A W Niloc]

On 4/8/2023 at 9:02 AM, KeithVikings28 said:

The field is only a half read. Hooker has never read the full field and made those kind of progressions. Don’t get me wrong he’d be a good backup but he’s not a NFL starting QB. 

Hooker's numbers speak for themselves.

[vike daddy]

12 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Hooker's numbers speak for themselves.

no, not really...

NFL draft history is filled with big number producing guys, in college.

 

and the point about Hooker is that the one look system he played in produced his big numbers, but it's not what he's going to see in the pros.

Edited April 11, 2023 by vike daddy

[Kparty15]

1 hour ago, Ozzy said:

Interesting stat, looks like Addison is a totally legit deep threat which is no surprise.  Surprised Johnston is not on the list but this helps show that if both WRs are there and they want a WR, Addison should be the pick.  

I want nothing to do with Johnston.  He is a huge project and should probably go in the 3rd round.  Terrible route runner, 80-90% of the time he only ran 2 different routes, he only lines up on one side of the field, awkward body control, concentration drops and bobbles, sloppy footwork, coming out of a TCU offense (which should be a huge red flag for WRs), small catch radius compared to his size, body catcher that rarely attacks the ball in the air.  The only thing that he’s really good at is getting yards after the catch.  Compared to other big WRs I’d rather have Cedric Tillman or Jonathan Mingo based on their ADP.

Jordan Addison and Jaxon Smith Njigba are easily in a tier by themselves as the top WRs with Zay Flowers not too far behind them.

[Ozzy]

1 hour ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Hooker's numbers speak for themselves.

*2021	Tennessee	SEC	SR	QB	13	206	303	68.0	2945	9.7	11.3	31	3	181.4
*2022	Tennessee	SEC	SR	QB	11	229	329	69.6	3135	9.5	10.9	27	2	175.5

 

 

Not sure those numbers are that great, yes this past year he missed the last few games but they are both pretty similar.  11-2 this past year as a team, 7-6 the year before.  And Tennessee did beat a solid Clemson team in the bowl game and Tennessee had Milton the starter and they looked just fine without Hooker.

 

McCoy, Hyatt, Tillman and Jones from the year before all will be NFL players at WR.  Also have 2-3 OL who will be in the NFL and possibly a RB, maybe two TEs as well potentially.

 

It is a solid passing system by an obvious spread QB himself Josh Heupel who did the same thing offensively at Missouri, Oklahoma, UCF etc.  I would be ok with Hooker in the 2nd, not sure he is worth a 1st rounder honestly and the Vikings clearly do not have a 2nd rounder.  Trade out of the 1st and get a 2nd rounder somehow, I would be way more comfortable with that taking Hooker.  

[Dr A W Niloc]

2 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Not sure those numbers are that great, yes this past year he missed the last few games but they are both pretty similar.  11-2 this past year as a team, 7-6 the year before.  And Tennessee did beat a solid Clemson--

      To be clear, I mentioned Hooker's numbers, not team ones.
      
      Think Adjusted Completion Percentage, Average Depth of Target, Turnover Worthy Play Rate, Deep Yards, Yards per Pass Attempt, Pressure/Sack percentage, and everyone's least favorite stat:  QBR.  

      Some seem wedded to the belief that there is a sure-fire offensive scheme so magical that makes it easy for non-elite QBs to end up first in all of these categories among the top 5 draftee QBs, while being second in release time and third in screen yards.  Against the fourth best opponents in college football, no less.  One wonders why every college doesn't run such a "simple" system (i.e. if success doesn't require any special talent, aptitude or intelligence), and why other QBs don't run theirs as well as Hernon did (statistically speaking, at least).

      In my experience quarterback friendly systems serve to make poor QBs seem more spectacularly inept and average ones more obviously mediocre, while paradoxically making great ones seem ordinary to skeptics, despite their unparalleled accomplishments.  This is often combined with discounting the QB's efforts by attributing his success to the supporting talent.

Quote

Trade out of the 1st and get a 2nd rounder somehow, I would be way more comfortable with that taking Hooker.

FWIW, I don't think Minnesota is in the market for a franchise QB.

 

 

 

 

[Ozzy]

6 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      To be clear, I mentioned Hooker's numbers, not team ones.
      
      Think Adjusted Completion Percentage, Average Depth of Target, Turnover Worthy Play Rate, Deep Yards, Yards per Pass Attempt, Pressure/Sack percentage, and everyone's least favorite stat:  QBR.  

      Some seem wedded to the belief that there is a sure-fire offensive scheme so magical that makes it easy for non-elite QBs to end up first in all of these categories among the top 5 draftee QBs, while being second in release time and third in screen yards.  Against the fourth best opponents in college football, no less.  One wonders why every college doesn't run such a "simple" system (i.e. if success doesn't require any special talent, aptitude or intelligence), and why other QBs don't run theirs as well as Hernon did (statistically speaking, at least).

      In my experience quarterback friendly systems serve to make poor QBs seem more spectacularly inept and average ones more obviously mediocre, while paradoxically making great ones seem ordinary to skeptics, despite their unparalleled accomplishments.  This is often combined with discounting the QB's efforts by attributing his success to the supporting talent.

FWIW, I don't think Minnesota is in the market for a franchise QB.

 

 

 

 

Here are the college QBs Josh Heupel and that system produced. 

 

Dillon Gabriel, McKenzie Milton, Drew Lock, Kent Myers, Sam Bradford, Landry Jones, Trevor Knight

 

Not a great list, not to mention the oddly wide splits for the WRs and how the OL line up which is also not very common either.  Those are not things NFL teams do so it can be deceptive at times. Sure teams use tempo and that zone read stuff but the formations are not that similar and not sure any of those QBs succeeded in the NFL I listed.  Some might say Bradford but honestly that dude sucked in the NFL and was a big disappointment honestly.  Sure got stats early on but never won big and did turn it over a lot.  

 

By the way Hooker is getting this type of attention compared to not the year previous is because the team was winning and successful on the field.  So that does matter in the perception of a QB as well.  

 

I agree Minnesota is not in the market for a franchise QB because they cannot get one, Stroud and Bryce Young will be gone and the rest are just project guys that might turn out but might not.  At least Richardson and Levis has athletic upside, not sure Hooker has that type of upside.  

[SemperFeist]

There’s probably only 15 or so players with actual 1st round grades, but it’s definitely going to make the order in which the receivers are taken very interesting. 

[swede700]

Quote

 

These are the five teams that most need to ace the 2023 NFL Draft to either pull them out of a long rebuild or keep them in playoff contention.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings may have run away with the NFC North in 2022, clinching the division title in Week 15, but things won’t be so easy in the coming season. Where they’ve lost some critical pieces of their own—defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, cornerback Patrick Peterson, and wide receiver Adam Thielen—other teams in the NFC North stocked up. The Lions were nearly a playoff team in 2022 and added a ton of quality roster upgrades in free agency, and the Bears have made some nice moves in free agency and are poised to be a much better team in 2023 with a new lead receiver in D.J. Moore and 10 draft picks to work with. If the Vikings want to repeat as NFC North champions, nailing their five picks in the draft will be crucial.

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/nfl-draft-2023-giants-vikings-texans-dolphins-bears/

[SteelKing728]

You have the choice of Deonte Banks, Jordan Addison or trade down at 23. These are your only options

What are you doing in this hypothetical situation and why?

For me, I'm taking Banks. As much as I like Addison, and I like recouping some draft capital, I think Banks is a perfect scheme fit for our defense.

[swede700]

 

[Dr A W Niloc]

2 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Not a great list.  

      By definition, QB friendly teams will inflate the stats of their offensive personnel.  This broadens the statistical differences between them, making it easier to detect elite outliers.  To compare apples to apples, we should compare such assets not to previous ones on that team but to other contemporary spread and/or elite QBs.  No recent QB of any sort has been first among the top five QBs in seven of the ten categories geeks use to measure pivots in isolation.  The other three categories?  Two seconds and a third.

Quote

I agree Minnesota is not in the market for a franchise QB because they cannot get one

      That too, yes.  Hendon will be long gone before #23.  Also, the Vikes have other priorities. 

      Hooker's prospects will rely a lot more on where he goes than where he's from.  He might not be the Fantasy bonanza that Richardson will be but if he's healthy his NFL offense (Tampa Bay?) will be more successful than those of Young-Stroud, whereupon his detractors will attribute the rise in fortunes to everyone but Hendon.  We've all seen this movie before.

[battle2heaven]

55 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

For me, I'm taking Banks. As much as I like Addison, and I like recouping some draft capital, I think Banks is a perfect scheme fit for our defense.

I would probably trade down if I could get decent value to last 3-5 picks in the 1st.

[Kparty15]

1 hour ago, SteelKing728 said:

You have the choice of Deonte Banks, Jordan Addison or trade down at 23. These are your only options

What are you doing in this hypothetical situation and why?

For me, I'm taking Banks. As much as I like Addison, and I like recouping some draft capital, I think Banks is a perfect scheme fit for our defense.

I’m a really big Addison fan and I think he is really underrated right now.  He had a fairly average combine, but a lot of people don’t realize that he had a substantial ankle injury at the end of December which could’ve affected his training and stuff.  I would be very happy if any of these three options happened, but my choice would be to trade down.  I would take Addison over Deonte Banks, but trading down will open things up for you to move up with your next pick to get another quality player in the 2nd or 3rd.  There is always the chance that Addison or Banks could still be on the board after we trade back.  Also I personally have Cam Smith around the same grade as Deonte Banks if not even a little higher.  So if we could trade back and still get Cam Smith then that would be a huge win.  I’ve read several articles that compare Cam Smith and Jaycee Horn, who was a top 10 pick a few years ago, and most of the articles give Smith the edge on most categories except for size and run support.  Smith was about 20 lbs lighter than Horn, but Smith had better movement abilities and is otherwise very comparable.  I am definitely on the Cam Smith hype train right now, but would love Jordan Addison as well.

Edited April 11, 2023 by Kparty15