pwny Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, fretgod99 said: You said you didn't get your move in for tonight? Investigated Hockey/zel N1? Yes. Check my first post day 2 if you want verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 Not angry, just amused. I'm ok with being the vote right now, as I have zero concern. I still have to read up on what happened today but I'm to lazy to right now, will likely get to it in the morning. Until then I'll provide nothing of substance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyNumber11 Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 I agree. Reading through everything I think that Mookie is just an angry civ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMossIsBoss Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, fretgod99 said: If you think Mookie is the killer, the wise play is to lynch him. Killer has a hit tonight and Killer doesn't care if it's mafia or civ, so you can't expect it to be a civ-friendly hit. Mafia could hit the Killer tonight but Killer's hit comes first. Plus, Killer survives the first hit. If tonight were even, I'd say we could afford to let the Killer survive. If you think Mookie is the killer, vote for him. That's where I'm staying unless someone can make a very compelling case otherwise. Maybe I'm not understanding the killer's win condition, but he needs to be one of the 2 sole survivors to win this, right? If so, he has no chance of doing that with mafia around. Right now the mafia has the upper hand, so I'd assume the killer would want to get rid of mafia right now, no? Likewise if someone has a compelling case why I'm wrong about the killer's motives, then I will switch my vote to Mookie since I do think he is the killer. He replaced someone who truly was inactive and probably wasn't on FF N1 by the looks of it, and what are the odds the killer's N1 move got blocked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, CWood21 said: This is getting amusing. Anyone know what to make of ET's absence? I'd like to peg this on work, but he always seems able to stay active. Did I miss something? I do know he's on a business trip, and had to change flight times. Got hammered at the airport and saw someone he thought was dying this afternoon. Whether that's ultimately relevant to his lack of activity, idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 The logic is sound, and I'm a fan of logic but the outcome is bad, bad, bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fretgod99 Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 @bucsfan333, if Killer's win condition is met, do civs win, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, fretgod99 said: @bucsfan333, if Killer's win condition is met, do civs win, too? All civs would be dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fretgod99 Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 The options for the Killer's missed hit are inactivity, roleblocked, or he killed mission and mafia hit Killer. The last one seems the least likely to me; I really think it would be mentioned in the write up. Roleblock is certainly possible, but the odds are very low. I recognize that mafia needs the Killer dead too, but at this point numbers still favor the hit being used on a civ. Killer doesn't much care who they hit. That being the case, the Killer can pretty mich pick whoever. The likelihood of that random hit being a civ (and being unblockable) is much higher than hitting mafia at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fretgod99 Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, iPwn said: All civs would be dead That's what I thought. Which is why I disagree with RMiB on Killer's motivation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 1 minute ago, fretgod99 said: That's what I thought. Which is why I disagree with RMiB on Killer's motivation. I think he's right though. mafia is way ahead at this point. The only way the mafia doesn't win is if we start picking them off basically every night. If it ultimately comes down to ... let's say 3-3-2, mafia has a 2/5 chance of ending the game with every hit they have. Serial killer would have to hit on all three mafia before the mafia got him or the copy cat. It's advantageous for the serial killer to take out the mafia and get the game close where they can pick off the last mafia and then beat the civs in the lynch game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fretgod99 Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 That's probably fair. Don't like leaving a "known" hit free to wander though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 Someone pls catch me up, was on a bender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 1 hour ago, RandyMossIsBoss said: I've got a strong hunch about McMurry right now. He is coming off as forced civ to me and seems hung up on lynching ET for reasons I don't follow. ET jumped in on the middle of the jfin bandwagon night one. He jumped off once it was too late for the d1 lynch to change. I feel like that was our strongest lead through the first two days, as not much was happening. But ultimately I'm with iPwn now. TLO has to vote today or he dies of inactivity. If he votes I'll switch my vote to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 The chatzy hit being the unblockable hit is OP. Unblockable hits should be player tied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.png.f40f9543097d7c33ae4ad1ba4b0e906b.png)
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.