2023 NFL Draft Prospects

[AZBearsFan]

5 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

I think you guys are overestimating Bucks draft compensation. That’s a massive cap hit that comes with him, that the Colts will absorb none of, and most teams can’t just take that on.

He was traded straight up for the #13 pick, and that was 3 years ago. 

Good point. On one hand his current cap hit is big. The other side of that same coin is that he’s a top tier player under contractual control for 2 years coming in the door, and who you’d likely extend and reduce the 2023 cap number on once he’s here anyway. For me it’s hard to say what his value would be in a swap. I’d say not as high as pick #13, but still pretty significant. 

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

Good point. On one hand his current cap hit is big. The other side of that same coin is that he’s a top tier player under contractual control for 2 years coming in the door, and who you’d likely extend and reduce the 2023 cap number on once he’s here anyway. For me it’s hard to say what his value would be in a swap. I’d say not as high as pick #13, but still pretty significant. 

At least for 1-2 of the Bears' bigger deals I would like to front load their deal. Chances of having so much cap space in the near future is almost non-existent so take advantage of it and make their deals friendlier as they get more FAs or re-signings in 2024-25.

[AZBearsFan]

7 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

At least for 1-2 of the Bears' bigger deals I would like to front load their deal. Chances of having so much cap space in the near future is almost non-existent so take advantage of it and make their deals friendlier as they get more FAs or re-signings in 2024-25.

I agree. My point wasn’t so much to get his number down because they have to do so as much as since they’d probably extend him after a trade that his current cap number has reduced relevance because they’ll manipulate it as they see fit anyway. 

[StLunatic88]

16 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Wasn't arguing that it didn't lol.  I'll be more direct since I didn't ask for some reason. What I was wanting to find out is what do you and @Madmike90 (and anyone else) think would be fair and realistic trades with these three teams? I do mean pre-draft and I'm open to making double trades.

Sorry I didnt have time to write this out last night;

Houston

• Ive said before, we need to look at precedence for these deals, and Unfortunately we set that bar with what a Houston trade would be when we made the Mitch Deal. So if we were just going to swap 1 for 2, we would need to receive two 3rd rounders and a 4th. Which for one spot is a TON. Anyone acting like we should for sure be getting more is being greedy. Could we get more? Sure, but expecting a ton more than that, is greedy. I think I tossed in one of their many 6th rounders in there to compensate for their bad Front Office. But anyone talking about #12 is high. That is CRAZY to me, we would be more likely to get their 2024 1st than #12. It would need to be such an outlandish scenario to get 12, like Stroud doesnt declare, Will Levis bombs the combine/pro day and is a complete **** in interviews, and the only QB anyone wants is Bryce Young. Then we can start talking about #12, but thats just not reality. In the end, Id imagine the best we could expect (if there is a divisional bidding war) is a 2nd (33) and like a 4th (104) with an outside chance of some of their 6/7 rounders or a future Day 3 pick. Which is a CRAZY return for one spot in the draft.

Arizona

• Im not really sure why the Cardinals would want to move up to #1, as it likely wouldnt be for a QB, but if for some reason they would, Id say a similar value of the Texans pick. Probably their 2ns (34) and their Comp Pick for Christian Kirk they are likely to get (~96). This is probably where you would start talking Future 1st.

Indianapolis

• I legitimately do think that there is a chance that we can make 2 trades in this draft (assuming the first one is Houston) Because there are MANY teams looking for their Franchise QB, and more than one of them are looking desperate. But, just talking 1-to-4, It will be a steeper price as they are jumping Houston for THE Quarterback. But once again, from Precedence (which the Colts actually helped set) its the Sam Darnold deal I would look most at (the Niners/Trey Lance deal is weird) and the Jets gave up Three 2nd round picks to move up 3 slots. But that was to #3 and for the 2nd overall QB (Baker went #1). I say all that to say, we would need to get more than the Darnold return. The Colts also dont have a 3rd rounder this year, so they would almost certainly be dipping into the Future Picks to make something happen. And the fact that they are jumping a division rival for this Franchise QB, I think this is where the Haul comes in. Id start with #4, 2nd (35) 4th (105) and a 2024 1st. Honestly might be able to sneak in another future pick depending how desperate.

[Ty21]

I genuinely feel the cards trade down from 3 

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

Sorry I didnt have time to write this out last night;

Houston

• Ive said before, we need to look at precedence for these deals, and Unfortunately we set that bar with what a Houston trade would be when we made the Mitch Deal. So if we were just going to swap 1 for 2, we would need to receive two 3rd rounders and a 4th. Which for one spot is a TON. Anyone acting like we should for sure be getting more is being greedy. Could we get more? Sure, but expecting a ton more than that, is greedy. I think I tossed in one of their many 6th rounders in there to compensate for their bad Front Office. But anyone talking about #12 is high. That is CRAZY to me, we would be more likely to get their 2024 1st than #12. It would need to be such an outlandish scenario to get 12, like Stroud doesnt declare, Will Levis bombs the combine/pro day and is a complete **** in interviews, and the only QB anyone wants is Bryce Young. Then we can start talking about #12, but thats just not reality. In the end, Id imagine the best we could expect (if there is a divisional bidding war) is a 2nd (33) and like a 4th (104) with an outside chance of some of their 6/7 rounders or a future Day 3 pick. Which is a CRAZY return for one spot in the draft.

Arizona

• Im not really sure why the Cardinals would want to move up to #1, as it likely wouldnt be for a QB, but if for some reason they would, Id say a similar value of the Texans pick. Probably their 2ns (34) and their Comp Pick for Christian Kirk they are likely to get (~96). This is probably where you would start talking Future 1st.

Indianapolis

• I legitimately do think that there is a chance that we can make 2 trades in this draft (assuming the first one is Houston) Because there are MANY teams looking for their Franchise QB, and more than one of them are looking desperate. But, just talking 1-to-4, It will be a steeper price as they are jumping Houston for THE Quarterback. But once again, from Precedence (which the Colts actually helped set) its the Sam Darnold deal I would look most at (the Niners/Trey Lance deal is weird) and the Jets gave up Three 2nd round picks to move up 3 slots. But that was to #3 and for the 2nd overall QB (Baker went #1). I say all that to say, we would need to get more than the Darnold return. The Colts also dont have a 3rd rounder this year, so they would almost certainly be dipping into the Future Picks to make something happen. And the fact that they are jumping a division rival for this Franchise QB, I think this is where the Haul comes in. Id start with #4, 2nd (35) 4th (105) and a 2024 1st. Honestly might be able to sneak in another future pick depending how desperate.

Hey its not problem man. I appreciate all the info packed in this! 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

3 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Unfortunately we set that bar with what a Houston trade would be when we made the Mitch Deal. So if we were just going to swap 1 for 2, we would need to receive two 3rd rounders and a 4th. Which for one spot is a TON.

You're not wrong on the value for a single spot, but the 1st spot is unique in the draft as it's an absolute guarantee that you get your guy.  Especially if you can get it done before the draft and structure your plans accordingly, it's a pretty special spot to be in.   Also seems like more QB deperate teams than 2017 this year, coupled with a lot of rookies playing well and vets flaming out.  I don't think we'll get "I am a good GM because I refreshed the draft sim a lot" value, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Bears can get far greater than chart value out of this.

The rest of your points are very good.  Two trades back at "enhanced" valuations would go a long way towards fixing issues with this team. Even getting extra late picks for flyers and depth (assuming Poles' talent evaluation improves over last year, yikes) is going to help fill out a roster which doesn't just have holes, it's not even a complete offense and defense actually under contract.  

My own hunch with no other pieces moved is that Poles would be comfortable moving back, but wouldn't want to miss out on whatever players he may consider sure thing players. If he values Carter and Anderson as much as drafty types seem to, then I'd be suprised if we get out of the top 5.  People on here know way more than me on these things and seem to like those two, so it all sounds fine to me to get one of them and still get some extra picks.  I really like Skoronski, Q Johnston and Jalin Hyatt and would be thrilled if we could leave the first round with one of them too.  Also... and I KNOW college is different, but I have a Darnell Washington crush and would love to see him inadvertantly send Jaire Alexander into row 14 on a collision.  That dude's highlights look fake. 

[AZBearsFan]

3 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Indianapolis

• I legitimately do think that there is a chance that we can make 2 trades in this draft (assuming the first one is Houston) Because there are MANY teams looking for their Franchise QB, and more than one of them are looking desperate. But, just talking 1-to-4, It will be a steeper price as they are jumping Houston for THE Quarterback. But once again, from Precedence (which the Colts actually helped set) its the Sam Darnold deal I would look most at (the Niners/Trey Lance deal is weird) and the Jets gave up Three 2nd round picks to move up 3 slots. But that was to #3 and for the 2nd overall QB (Baker went #1). I say all that to say, we would need to get more than the Darnold return. The Colts also dont have a 3rd rounder this year, so they would almost certainly be dipping into the Future Picks to make something happen. And the fact that they are jumping a division rival for this Franchise QB, I think this is where the Haul comes in. Id start with #4, 2nd (35) 4th (105) and a 2024 1st. Honestly might be able to sneak in another future pick depending how desperate.

To go way back to 2004 and the Manning/Rivers trade, though the QBs were both already selected before the trade was consummated, it was effectively:

SD traded their 2004 1st (1-1) for:

2004 1-4

2004 3rd

2005 1st

2005 5th

One would think we have more leverage against IND than SD did against the Giants though, because at some point NY could’ve just said they’d just keep Rivers instead and left SD stuck with the QB who didn’t want to be there. IND wouldn’t have any such leverage against us because our trade would almost certainly not take place on draft day, and if IND pushes back we would have other options and wouldn't be stuck with a specific player. 

[Madmike90]

5 hours ago, Ty21 said:

I genuinely feel the cards trade down from 3 

I think if the first two picks are QBs then the Cardinals would have a really tough time getting down.

[beardown3231]

2 hours ago, RunningVaccs said:

You're not wrong on the value for a single spot, but the 1st spot is unique in the draft as it's an absolute guarantee that you get your guy.  Especially if you can get it done before the draft and structure your plans accordingly, it's a pretty special spot to be in.   Also seems like more QB deperate teams than 2017 this year, coupled with a lot of rookies playing well and vets flaming out.  I don't think we'll get "I am a good GM because I refreshed the draft sim a lot" value, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Bears can get far greater than chart value out of this.

The rest of your points are very good.  Two trades back at "enhanced" valuations would go a long way towards fixing issues with this team. Even getting extra late picks for flyers and depth (assuming Poles' talent evaluation improves over last year, yikes) is going to help fill out a roster which doesn't just have holes, it's not even a complete offense and defense actually under contract.  

My own hunch with no other pieces moved is that Poles would be comfortable moving back, but wouldn't want to miss out on whatever players he may consider sure thing players. If he values Carter and Anderson as much as drafty types seem to, then I'd be suprised if we get out of the top 5.  People on here know way more than me on these things and seem to like those two, so it all sounds fine to me to get one of them and still get some extra picks.  I really like Skoronski, Q Johnston and Jalin Hyatt and would be thrilled if we could leave the first round with one of them too.  Also... and I KNOW college is different, but I have a Darnell Washington crush and would love to see him inadvertantly send Jaire Alexander into row 14 on a collision.  That dude's highlights look fake. 

That's where I think you're right. I think our trade scenarios need to be somewhere between realistic/what we've seen and unrealistic, especially since the Colts and Texans are division foes. It could be a bidding war. 

[beardown3231]

1 minute ago, Madmike90 said:

I think if the first two picks are QBs then the Cardinals would have a really tough time getting down.

Unless someone still loves the #3 guy. Normally I'd say Myles Murphy seems like a very Cardinalsy pick but now they'll have a new FO, so who knows?

Edited January 12, 2023 by beardown3231

[StLunatic88]

18 hours ago, RunningVaccs said:

You're not wrong on the value for a single spot, but the 1st spot is unique in the draft as it's an absolute guarantee that you get your guy.  Especially if you can get it done before the draft and structure your plans accordingly, it's a pretty special spot to be in.   Also seems like more QB deperate teams than 2017 this year, coupled with a lot of rookies playing well and vets flaming out.  I don't think we'll get "I am a good GM because I refreshed the draft sim a lot" value, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Bears can get far greater than chart value out of this.

Im not saying we shouldnt get more than the Mitch trade, the opposite actually, Im saying that is the bar that the Texans would have to hurdle. 

But I also am just pointing out that a pair of 3rds and a 4th is a LOOOONG way from #12 overall

[chisoxguy7]

3 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Im not saying we shouldnt get more than the Mitch trade, the opposite actually, Im saying that is the bar that the Texans would have to hurdle. 

But I also am just pointing out that a pair of 3rds and a 4th is a LOOOONG way from #12 overall

It is kind of interesting to think about--to be clear, I think it would be the wrong move for the Texans, but, say they want to pick at #1 AND #2, what do you have to have in addition to that #12 pick to give up #1? Next year's first from them should also be pretty high.

 

Or, maybe they are thinking they trade up from 12 to 1, then trade down from 2 to wherever. They do have a lot of options available to them. And if the Bears are comfortable with the talent available at 12, maybe they would consider it.

[StLunatic88]

3 minutes ago, chisoxguy7 said:

It is kind of interesting to think about--to be clear, I think it would be the wrong move for the Texans, but, say they want to pick at #1 AND #2, what do you have to have in addition to that #12 pick to give up #1? Next year's first from them should also be pretty high.

 

Or, maybe they are thinking they trade up from 12 to 1, then trade down from 2 to wherever. They do have a lot of options available to them. And if the Bears are comfortable with the talent available at 12, maybe they would consider it.

I think its more of a fun thought experiment, than something that would actually happen in reality. But just to play along, 1-to-12 would have to be a MASSIVE haul.

We are not only dropping down past all the premium players, but getting very close to missing out on all the second wave as well.

If you are using strictly the Value Chart, #1 is like 3000 on most, #12 is 1200, youre talking about starting with Houston's '24 First Rounder and Cleveland's First Rounder. Because even the most generous GM is only going to value those at Mid First value (1000 each). But in reality our Pick is worth more, because of the QB factor, and those future first, are probably worth less than that right now. 

Youre talking #12, HOU '24 1st, CLE '24 1st and #33 this year. Probably more

[Madmike90]

 

I would be amazed if Allbright is right and Young is just under 6' 1/2"...if he is it would be great news for us since more teams will have him on their boards.