Justin Tucker-esk Kick NFL trade Value

[twslhs20]

 Just want to understand why it doesn't happen.

What does the math say on the opportunity cost?

[RandyMossIsBoss]

Yes.

[Forge]

31 minutes ago, twslhs20 said:

 Just want to understand why it doesn't happen.

What does the math say on the opportunity cost?

Can you clarify what you're asking? 

[twslhs20]

Just now, Forge said:

Can you clarify what you're asking? 

Why don't NFL teams attempt to trade for Kickers of a Justin Tucker caliber?

They have an impact on, what?, 3-5% of game day plays.

Is there a mathematical argument, to be made, for trading a 1st round pick for that type of kicker?

[kokichi]

Agreed. Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like

[Forge]

1 minute ago, twslhs20 said:

Why don't NFL teams attempt to trade for Kickers of a Justin Tucker caliber?

They have an impact on, what?, 3-5% of game day plays.

Is there a mathematical argument, to be made, for trading a 1st round pick for that type of kicker?

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if the Ravens wouldn't even takea  first round pick for him. Given how little they cost relative to the salary cap and having that kind of value in certain moments...I think I'd just rather have Tucker than a random late round, pick #29 first rounder.

Meanwhile, if I were a team picking in the top 15 or something, I'm probably not going to give that pick up for a kicker given that you probably have substantial holes to fill given where you are drafting. 

 

[twslhs20]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if the Ravens wouldn't even takea  first round pick for him. Given how little they cost relative to the salary cap and having that kind of value in certain moments...I think I'd just rather have Tucker than a random late round, pick #29 first rounder.

Meanwhile, if I were a team picking in the top 15 or something, I'm probably not going to give that pick up for a kicker given that you probably have substantial holes to fill given where you are drafting. 

 

I think any team would take a late round 1st for a kicker.

First the market demand would have be be there. I don't think is has, or ever would be. Any team, coming in, would essentially be bidding against themselves.

Then it comes don't to opportunity cost. Maybe, a team picking 25-32, like that idea vs talented player that isn't a blue chip prospect.

I think about recent trades for Tyreek Hill and Adams. Premier players at their position. I think Hill got round 1 value, but didn't go for a 1st round pick. So that lies into your low cost argument for the position. If Hill can't command the value, that he should, in a thriving market, how can one expect a kicker to return that value?

[Forge]

3 minutes ago, twslhs20 said:

I think any team would take a late round 1st for a kicker.

First the market demand would have be be there. I don't think is has, or ever would be. Any team, coming in, would essentially be bidding against themselves.

Then it comes don't to opportunity cost. Maybe, a team picking 25-32, like that idea vs talented player that isn't a blue chip prospect.

I think about recent trades for Tyreek Hill and Adams. Premier players at their position. I think Hill got round 1 value, but didn't go for a 1st round pick. So that lies into your low cost argument for the position. If Hill can't command the value, that he should, in a thriving market, how can one expect a kicker to return that value?

I wouldn't have taken a late first for Tucker if I were the Ravens. I could justify doing it if I were a really good team with a kicker problem and it was like pick 28 or 29, but yes, its a very specific situation. 

And it's not really bidding against themselves because you have to have a starting point where it's even worth it for the Ravens. The leverage for the Ravens is that they simply wouldn't have ever had to trade him. The market demand from other teams is kind of irrelevant because you have to put them in a position to where they would even entertain moving him. 

[twslhs20]

6 minutes ago, Forge said:

I wouldn't have taken a late first for Tucker if I were the Ravens. I could justify doing it if I were a really good team with a kicker problem and it was like pick 28 or 29, but yes, its a very specific situation. 

And it's not really bidding against themselves because you have to have a starting point where it's even worth it for the Ravens. The leverage for the Ravens is that they simply wouldn't have ever had to trade him. The market demand from other teams is kind of irrelevant because you have to put them in a position to where they would even entertain moving him. 

A lot of variables to equivocate whether or not the move would be worth it.

[Soko]

1 hour ago, twslhs20 said:

Why don't NFL teams attempt to trade for Kickers of a Justin Tucker caliber?

Probably for the same reason KC isn’t fielding calls everyday for a team trying to acquire Patrick Mahomes.

[CP3MVP]

They love tucker but they’re take a 1 for him tonight 

[mse326]

1 hour ago, twslhs20 said:

I think any team would take a late round 1st for a kicker.

First the market demand would have be be there. I don't think is has, or ever would be. Any team, coming in, would essentially be bidding against themselves.

Then it comes don't to opportunity cost. Maybe, a team picking 25-32, like that idea vs talented player that isn't a blue chip prospect.

I think about recent trades for Tyreek Hill and Adams. Premier players at their position. I think Hill got round 1 value, but didn't go for a 1st round pick. So that lies into your low cost argument for the position. If Hill can't command the value, that he should, in a thriving market, how can one expect a kicker to return that value?

If any team would take first then why would any team trade the first?

[Jetzger]

2 hours ago, kokichi said:

Agreed. Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like

Quality reference. 

[Ray Reed]

27 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

They love tucker but they’re take a 1 for him tonight 

3 of the last 4 years the Ravens’ first round picks have been Patrick Queen (bust), Odafe Oweh (looks bad this year), and Hollywood Brown (was decent but still disappointing).

I wouldn’t trade Tucker for any of those players...not even close.

[wackywabbit]

It's clear and obvious to me that if you knew a rookie would be Justin Tucker it would be worth a first round pick. He's definitely provided more total value than 75% of first round picks and he only just passed 5M AAV on a contract.

The ceiling of not getting a superstar at another position is the reason I'd understand holding out like a top-10 pick. But Tucker is such a safe asset that is IMO comparable to a very good starter at most positions with excellent reliability and dirt cheap contract. You take that 16 or so in an average draft.