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Trevor Lawrence has arrived


notthatbluestuff

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6 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Didn’t compare them but I’d wager no. I feel as if Aikman is the ultimate example of “Wins aren’t a QB stat” that you and I went around with this off-season.

Hope all is well, buddy. How’s Wyoming?

4 feet of snow and rising ( that means excellent)

how due you like the new advatar

speaking of how about brissette being 7 th in qbr

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59 minutes ago, mtmmike said:

4 feet of snow and rising ( that means excellent)

Gonna be a great season for you, sounds awesome.

59 minutes ago, mtmmike said:

how due you like the new advatar

I have a new one? Thought I was still wearing Dr. Kelso from Scrubs…

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2 hours ago, ET80 said:

That can attest for the W/L figures at most (and as I've said on more than one occasion, Wins aren't a QB stat) so I'm actually referencing figures like completion percentage (60.8% for Luck vs 64.2% for Wilson) TDs (196 for Wilson vs 171 for Luck) and INTs (83 for Luck, 63 for Wilson).

So, from 2012 until 2018 - Luck’s career vs a portion of Wilson’s career - Wilson completed a better percentage of his passes for a lot more TDs and a lot less INTs. We already know Luck was in a pass first offense and Wilson was in a run first offense - but the discrepancies in these numbers is significant, moreso than what can be explained with philosophy differences in offensive gameplans.

Interesting sidenote that I didn’t even realize until I started deep diving on Luck’s stats: over the course of his career, Luck was on a top 5 offense only once in his career (in 2016 - 5th overall). He’s had two top 10 offensive finishes outside of that, but - despite being on an offense that was created to let him do what he does whenever he could - he never sustained an offense that was top in scoring. How can we rate him top 5 at any point in his career when the offenses he was running barely ever reached that spot? Is that something a generational QB would miss on? I’m pretty sure Elway and Manning ran some high powered offenses, even when they didn’t have Marvin Harrison or Shannon Sharpe.

I want to try something here - I enjoy talking to you @NJerseypaint, so I wanted to try an exercise to see where the line is with you. Statistically speaking, Luck compares to two different QBs:

Luck: 60.8%, 23,671/171 TDs/83 INTs

QB1: 66.6%, 22,674/146 TDs/52 INTs

QB2: 68.0%, 25,342/172 TDs/65 INTs

As you can see, the numbers are very similar - I’m running these as close to each other as possible, factoring in each QBs first six years starting (the number of actual seasons Luck played in his career). Luck is trailing pretty significantly in completion percentage, has yardage very similar, is sitting at #2 in TDs of the three and is leading INTs by nearly 20 INTs. I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking the other two QBs over Luck, and I think you’d agree - the numbers are similar.

I’ll skip on the drawn out reveal:

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QB1 is Dak Prescott.

QB2 is Kirk Cousins (his first three years as a starter in Washington and his first three years in Minnesota).

Are either of these guys elite/top 5 QBs? Are either generational in terms of on field accomplishments?

I agree wins aren't a QB stat, but when the only person on the team playing well enough to win games is the QB it's something that can't be overlooked.

I'm going to skip Wilson vs Luck, only because I'm going to re-hash things I said before, but yes, Wilson's numbers are prettier. The fact that they are comparable still speaks volumes IMO because before this year those Wilson years are considered elite.

Next up is "Luck only reaching top 5 as an offense", but in 2014 he had the #1 passing offense. I think that matters when it's your third year and your a QB. The fact that the Colts couldn't do anything else (bottom 10 rushing attack and middling defense), and they went all the way to the AFCCG losing to the soon-to-be-champion Patriots (albiet in a blowout) is just a testament to how much he put them on his back.

And I'm a "numbers aren't everything" person, context matters with QBs. Kirk sat for a while, so he's already not comparable to Luck - my argument isn't just about his performance, but his performance as rookie/young QB. Dak had the same luxuries as Wilson, top rushing and top defense (+ Dak had the best OL in the league). It's different IMO when a QB has to make the offense work vs when he can just play as a cog in an already deadly attack.

Most QBs put in Luck's shoes end up like David Carr or Sam Darnold. It's not easy coming in with that hype, expected to replace one of the greatest QBs of all-time, and then do so when the rest of your team is just so-so.

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19 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

"Generational" is too much hyperbole since it increasingly gets slapped on virtually any Freshman starter at a blue chip program that has a hot season. It may not last, indeed it usually doesn't, but it doesn't mean the outrageous hype wasn't there. 

Lawrence/Luck are really the only two recent prospects that were anointed as the potential #1 overall pick super early in their college careers and then actually lived up to the hype in college and then were selected first. 

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This thread is funny. When he has a good game against a team he should have a good game against, one side likes to brag. When he has a bad game against a team he should have a bad game against, the other side brags lol. 

Seems like he's right where he should be more or less. 

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1 minute ago, Forge said:

This thread is funny. When he has a good game against a team he should have a good game against, one side likes to brag. When he has a bad game against a team he should have a bad game against, the other side brags lol. 

Seems like he's right where he should be more or less. 

Should have had 3 tuddies today. Cam Robinson costed him a TD to Engram.

No turnover worthy throws. Missed a couple high early. Pleased with his progress the last two weeks. 
 

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