Trevor Lawrence has arrived

[Soko]

1 minute ago, CKSteeler said:

Please articulate what point you were trying to make with your sarcasm if not to dismiss my argument? … I don't know. I don't really even care to know. 

So what WAS the point of the sarcasm, if not to disagree with the argument? … I stopped caring what your point was. 

“So what was your point? I don’t care to to know”

”….so what was the point, really?? I stopped caring”

You’re just like a puppy. Wouldn’t know what to do with the mailman once you caught him!

[ET80]

2 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

“So what was your point? I don’t care to to know”

”….so what was the point, really?? I stopped caring”

You’re just like a puppy. Wouldn’t know what to do with the mailman once you caught him!

[KhanYouDigIt]

 

 

WHY DOESNT TREVOR LAWRENCE THROW DEEP

[ramssuperbowl99]

Cannot believe Russell Wilson posts here.

[CKSteeler]

8 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

WHY DOESNT TREVOR LAWRENCE THROW DEEP

Lawrence in the two games he won the past 2 weeks - 8.7 YPA and 7.6.

Lawrence in the Chiefs game - 6.5.

I've gone over this with you earlier in the thread that we can take *any* QB and find examples of WR's dropping passes or missing plays. Tom Brady has thrown deep balls that Mike Evans has dropped this year. There's a reason I fixate on YPA, and then the corollary stats related to it and it's because it's the number one stat in all of football, right up there with turnovers if not slightly ahead of it, with winning games.

Lawrence has a decent offensive coach. He has a pretty strong run game. He has the physical tools to where he should be able to get the ball down field accurately and if the scheme/talent aren't always making it easy, he should be able to do a little extra to make it happen at least occasionally.

His vertical passing stats are horrendous over his career *thus* far. I'm perfectly willing to have an argument/debate over why that is, but that isn't the argument most of you want to have. You simply dismiss it as the WR's suck and it's not important. It is important. Very important.

I'm not criticizing Lawrence for bringing his team back against the Ravens. That's what you want to see. I am adding the caveat that the Ravens have been absolutely horrendous late in games this year with leads. And then the other game was against Oakland.

So, as I've said, Lawrence can in fact make me eat my words. Maybe he turns a corner. But that's the crux. He has to turn a corner, and you people seem to have a real problem admitting that fact. 

[KhanYouDigIt]

2 minutes ago, CKSteeler said:

Lawrence in the two games he won the past 2 weeks - 8.7 YPA and 7.6.

Lawrence in the Chiefs game - 6.5.

I've gone over this with you earlier in the thread that we can take *any* QB and find examples of WR's dropping passes or missing plays. Tom Brady has thrown deep balls that Mike Evans has dropped this year. There's a reason I fixate on YPA, and then the corollary stats related to it and it's because it's the number one stat in all of football, right up there with turnovers if not slightly ahead of it, with winning games.

Lawrence has a decent offensive coach. He has a pretty strong run game. He has the physical tools to where he should be able to get the ball down field accurately and if the scheme/talent aren't always making it easy, he should be able to do a little extra to make it happen at least occasionally.

His vertical passing stats are horrendous over his career *thus* far. I'm perfectly willing to have an argument/debate over why that is, but that isn't the argument most of you want to have. You simply dismiss it as the WR's suck and it's not important. It is important. Very important.

I'm not criticizing Lawrence for bringing his team back against the Ravens. That's what you want to see. I am adding the caveat that the Ravens have been absolutely horrendous late in games this year with leads. And then the other game was against Oakland.

So, as I've said, Lawrence can in fact make me eat my words. Maybe he turns a corner. But that's the crux. He has to turn a corner, and you people seem to have a real problem admitting that fact. 

Of course you would like YPA. Mahomes, Jimmy G and Burrow all push the ball downfield since they are all in top 8 in Y/A, correct?

[KhanYouDigIt]

Marvin Jones has 64 yards of YAC on his 31 catches.

Travis Kelce has the same amount of YAC as Christian Kirk and Zay Jones combined. 😂

You showed me a clip earlier in the thread of JuJu turning an 8 yard pass into a 42 yard TD. 
 

No Jags player is doing that to help inflate Trevor’s Y/A like that. 

[KhanYouDigIt]

You praise him for his 7.6 YPA against the Raiders when his IAY/PA was 5.2 and  completed 0 passes beyond 20 yards (1 attempt). Yet bring up his 6.5 YPA against the Chiefs when his IAY/PA was 7.2 and he completed 3 passes (1 TD) beyond 20 yards on 8 attempts. 
 

You bash him for not pushing the ball downfield, which he didn’t do in Raiders game and you give him props for that game. And when he goes deep against the Chiefs, you bring up his YPA of 6.5 and say he was “mediocre”.
 

I am confused at what you’re doing here.

[skywindO2]

11 hours ago, CKSteeler said:

 

[CKSteeler]

5 hours ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

You showed me a clip earlier in the thread of JuJu turning an 8 yard pass into a 42 yard TD. 

I also asked everyone in this thread if they believed that that was a pass attempt that Trevor Lawrence would even attempt. Would Lawrence sit in the pocket, scramble to his right and then throw back across his body to a WR who was on or outside the left hashmark? I didn't get a single response from any of you. 

5 hours ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

You bash him for not pushing the ball downfield, which he didn’t do in Raiders game and you give him props for that game. And when he goes deep against the Chiefs, you bring up his YPA of 6.5 and say he was “mediocre”.

I said he played a decent game against Oakland. YPA is a simple proxy for passing efficiency. Getting chunk yards is part of it. A QB who is averaging an anemic 6 YPA or under who can't get the ball downfield at all is a detriment to his offense in the long term.

3/8 passing on attempts of 20 yards or longer would be pretty awful, actually, but a difference from earlier in the season when Lawrence wasn't even attempting those throws on a consistent basis let alone completing them. 

IAY is a goofy stat. I don't use it, haven't used it in this thread, and it correlates with nothing. A QB who throws two bombs down field in roughly 30 attempts is going to inflate his IAY greatly. It doesn't mean the team is an effective deep passing team or even one that schematically challenges you down field on a consistent basis. Ask me how I know this (I know, I know, I don't watch games). I've watched the Steelers run a short, u-shaped offense that often put up respectable IAY numbers for several seasons now. It's a nonsense stat.

Teams sit back in cover 2 against Patrick Mahomes much of the time while the Chiefs lack any top flight WR talent. Teams fear their intermediate and deep passing attack (no matter who the WR's are) and the Chiefs big play potential at all times. That is largely due to Mahomes. No defensive coordinator is looking at his IAY and using that to determine how he's going to play the Chiefs. They aren't going to look at IAY to determine how successful his defense was against them, either. They are going to look at explosive plays allowed and YPA long before they even think about the Chiefs IAY's.

In short, no one in the NFL cares if Trevor Lawrence's intended air yards were 7.2 because he attempted 2-3 deep shots in the game, a rarity for him anyway. 

They probably care more about the fact that on third down, he throws shorter of the sticks than like 2/3's of the league's starting QB's. They look at the fact that his passing offense barely produces plays of 20+ yards in any context. They look at things like YPA and completion percentage. Third down conversions and first downs. TD's/INT's. You know, the boring basic stuff that's been measured since forever.

[CKSteeler]

Addendum - Trevor Lawrence's IAY are still low, and his actual air yards per completion are even lower. He's one of the lowest in FO's Alex stat. He has only 34 passes that have gone over 34 yards this year, and just 2 over 40. When we looked at even just his attempted passes in the deep range, it was among the lowest in the league. 

The excuses are going to come flying in that it's the Jaguars lack of legitimate X WR and all that. YAC and explosive plays don't just happen in a vacuum and are not just the result of WR's. I remember it wasn't that long ago before WR's became the league's premier position where it was pretty widely recognized that the top QB's tend to be among the best with YAC every year because they are the best at throwing their guys open and giving them catchable balls that allow it.

Scheme and WR talent are a factor. Kelce is a dominant player. He's also the *only* dominant skill player KC has. Mahomes is obviously the gold standard, but it's a joke that some mediocre IAY numbers are being used to refute the notion that Lawrence is a guy who likes to play small ball.

Just stick with the WR excuse if you want to defend the guy. 

Edited December 2, 2022 by CKSteeler

[KhanYouDigIt]

4 hours ago, CKSteeler said:

I also asked everyone in this thread if they believed that that was a pass attempt that Trevor Lawrence would even attempt. Would Lawrence sit in the pocket, scramble to his right and then throw back across his body to a WR who was on or outside the left hashmark? I didn't get a single response from any of you. 

I said he played a decent game against Oakland. YPA is a simple proxy for passing efficiency. Getting chunk yards is part of it. A QB who is averaging an anemic 6 YPA or under who can't get the ball downfield at all is a detriment to his offense in the long term.

3/8 passing on attempts of 20 yards or longer would be pretty awful, actually, but a difference from earlier in the season when Lawrence wasn't even attempting those throws on a consistent basis let alone completing them. 

IAY is a goofy stat. I don't use it, haven't used it in this thread, and it correlates with nothing. A QB who throws two bombs down field in roughly 30 attempts is going to inflate his IAY greatly. It doesn't mean the team is an effective deep passing team or even one that schematically challenges you down field on a consistent basis. Ask me how I know this (I know, I know, I don't watch games). I've watched the Steelers run a short, u-shaped offense that often put up respectable IAY numbers for several seasons now. It's a nonsense stat.

Teams sit back in cover 2 against Patrick Mahomes much of the time while the Chiefs lack any top flight WR talent. Teams fear their intermediate and deep passing attack (no matter who the WR's are) and the Chiefs big play potential at all times. That is largely due to Mahomes. No defensive coordinator is looking at his IAY and using that to determine how he's going to play the Chiefs. They aren't going to look at IAY to determine how successful his defense was against them, either. They are going to look at explosive plays allowed and YPA long before they even think about the Chiefs IAY's.

In short, no one in the NFL cares if Trevor Lawrence's intended air yards were 7.2 because he attempted 2-3 deep shots in the game, a rarity for him anyway. 

They probably care more about the fact that on third down, he throws shorter of the sticks than like 2/3's of the league's starting QB's. They look at the fact that his passing offense barely produces plays of 20+ yards in any context. They look at things like YPA and completion percentage. Third down conversions and first downs. TD's/INT's. You know, the boring basic stuff that's been measured since forever.

 

This is a routine throw in the NFL lmao and it most definitely wasn’t across his body. Please show me a Jaguars receiver catching an 8 yard pass, breaking two/three tackles and turning it into a 40 + yard TD. Pat bought time with his feet but that was all JuJu. Don’t even try the DB’s were tired excuse.

You’re completely missing the point with that anyway. It was in reference to Y/A. 42 yards on a pass that went 8 IAY. That’s why Y/A are skewed. Like I asked earlier, are Jimmy G, Burrow and Mahomes all pushing the ball downfield since they are top 8 in Y/A? Jimmy G has benefited the most from YAC. He’s 1st in YAC/Cmp, Mahomes in 5th and Burrow is 10th. Lawrence is 22nd.While Mahomes is 24th in IAY/PA, Jimmy G is 29th and Burrow is 30th. Just because you have a high Y/A doesn’t mean you are pushing the ball downfield. If I throw a 2 yard pass, it goes 80 yards, then throw 3 straight incompletions all behind the LOS. That’s 20 YPA on 4 passes that traveled 2 yards beyond the LOS. I’m pushing the ball downfield though, right?

And he was 3/8 against the Chiefs on throws 20 + yards with two drops.

If you’re going to talk about him, at least pretend like you watch him play.

Edited December 2, 2022 by KhanYouDigIt

[KhanYouDigIt]

5 hours ago, CKSteeler said:

They look at the fact that his passing offense barely produces plays of 20+ yards in any context. 

The Jags are in the top half of the NFL in pass plays of 20 + yards 😂

 

[ET80]

13 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

The Jags are in the top half of the NFL in pass plays of 20 + yards 😂

 

[.Buzz]

31 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

The Jags are in the top half of the NFL in pass plays of 20 + yards 😂

 

This is just sad now.

Someone take his phone/computer away.