State of the Steelers

[warfelg]

14 minutes ago, bigben07MVP said:

Yea - it was getting frustrating.

By doing this exercise though, if one of the big 3 WRs falls to 12 and we don’t jump I will be annoyed. I watched another breakdown of Odunze last night, he could easily be WR1 and a top 5 lock in any other year imo. 

I think part of it is the algorithm these are built on. Guys “falling” is because the algorithm sees who picks what for each team and builds a percentage chance of them going to a team. It does the same thing on trades. So if you try to trade for a pick commonly traded for, it’s going to be easier and Vice versa. The other part is if people keep declining “fair” trades the algorithm decides offers need to be higher to make them happen. There’s one sim that literally uses the pick value chart but its big board is broken beyond belief. It had Dallas Turner go one and Caleb Williams in round 3 of the last sim I ran. 

[Chieferific]

28 minutes ago, warfelg said:

I think part of it is the algorithm these are built on. Guys “falling” is because the algorithm sees who picks what for each team and builds a percentage chance of them going to a team. It does the same thing on trades. So if you try to trade for a pick commonly traded for, it’s going to be easier and Vice versa. The other part is if people keep declining “fair” trades the algorithm decides offers need to be higher to make them happen. There’s one sim that literally uses the pick value chart but its big board is broken beyond belief. It had Dallas Turner go one and Caleb Williams in round 3 of the last sim I ran. 

👀

The most common "top" players that have fallen to 20 for me have been Verse, Turner, Fuaga and Q. Mitchell. B. Thomas is almost always there but he's ranked #20 on the site. JPJ has NEVER not been there, and Frazier rarely makes it back to #51.

[jebrick]

25 minutes ago, Chieferific said:

👀

The most common "top" players that have fallen to 20 for me have been Verse, Turner, Fuaga and Q. Mitchell. B. Thomas is almost always there but he's ranked #20 on the site. JPJ has NEVER not been there, and Frazier rarely makes it back to #51.

I never put much faith into mocks.  They are more of what you would look at given the situation.  Some stuff you can figure out from research.  Dallas Turner is not going to make it past the Falcons.  Anyone who do not have the Falcons taking him is a fool or looking for clicks.

[Chieferific]

3 minutes ago, jebrick said:

I never put much faith into mocks.  They are more of what you would look at given the situation.  Some stuff you can figure out from research.  Dallas Turner is not going to make it past the Falcons.  Anyone who do not have the Falcons taking him is a fool or looking for clicks.

Oh I agree. The Caleb Williams in the 3rd is crazy. 

[43M]

1 hour ago, bigben07MVP said:

Those offers weren’t accepted in the simulator I was using and whole point of doing this is seeing what the scenario would look like. 

Honestly - it might have been the 2025 3rd because I was basing this off the Devin Bush trade.

Didnt realize you did it with a mock simulator.  Yeah, the value is off on them.

[armsteeld]

2 hours ago, warfelg said:

I think part of it is the algorithm these are built on. Guys “falling” is because the algorithm sees who picks what for each team and builds a percentage chance of them going to a team. It does the same thing on trades. So if you try to trade for a pick commonly traded for, it’s going to be easier and Vice versa. The other part is if people keep declining “fair” trades the algorithm decides offers need to be higher to make them happen. There’s one sim that literally uses the pick value chart but its big board is broken beyond belief. It had Dallas Turner go one and Caleb Williams in round 3 of the last sim I ran. 

Part of the issue is "draft experts" not knowing the true value of players. That's why there's always late "risers" because that's when actual scouts on teams will release information to certain draft pundits. 

[AFF]

With Dean Lowry getting a 2 year deal and basically being the new Watts…I’m not sure if they force a DL pick in the draft.

I mean it’s needed but it wouldn’t surprise me if pushed back til 2025 with huge holes at Center/RT/WR and CB….not to mention them seemingly intent on adding another mid round ILB.

[armsteeld]

1 hour ago, AFF said:

With Dean Lowry getting a 2 year deal and basically being the new Watts…I’m not sure if they force a DL pick in the draft.

I mean it’s needed but it wouldn’t surprise me if pushed back til 2025 with huge holes at Center/RT/WR and CB….not to mention them seemingly intent on adding another mid round ILB.

Lowry is 30 years old, we definitely need to infuse some talented younger defenders on the defensive line. Some of those draftees who haven't developed will probably be released or have solid competition to get a roster spot.

[AFF]

1 hour ago, armsteeld said:

Lowry is 30 years old, we definitely need to infuse some talented younger defenders on the defensive line. Some of those draftees who haven't developed will probably be released or have solid competition to get a roster spot.

If you look at my post, I said DL youth is needed.

Im simply stating they don’t have enough picks to help everywhere so something will still be needed somewhere.

[rlon]

1 hour ago, AFF said:

If you look at my post, I said DL youth is needed.

Im simply stating they don’t have enough picks to help everywhere so something will still be needed somewhere.

That's why trading down and/or trading a player should be under consideration. DL youth is definitely needed. I hope the Cam era doesn't finish ugly so to speak. I'd love to see him stay on an additional year or two, at a reduced salary, to be more of a part timer...

[bigben07MVP]

https://x.com/schultz_report/status/1775327220858532098?s=46&t=qcRuXjH2St1oLeP8Aph7Og
 

If this guy falls to 10+ you go get him.

[rlon]

One thing I feel strongly, Dan Moore need to learn another position. If he can’t handle the right side he should be getting reps at LG to enhance his value to the team and as a fall back in case there are injuries to the interior. He is a solid run blocker, and working in less space might be the ticket.

[Dcash4]

10 hours ago, bigben07MVP said:

https://x.com/schultz_report/status/1775327220858532098?s=46&t=qcRuXjH2St1oLeP8Aph7Og
 

If this guy falls to 10+ you go get him.

He is the type of guy that makes me extremely underwhelmed so far with the off-season. We seem to be relying heavily on the draft for starting positions. 

Can we get a center in the second? Sure..but we can’t as freely move a pick that it might take to get a significant talent like his at a non-essential position right now (I still considering WR2 a luxury with Arthur smith until proven otherwise). 

[warfelg]

Kind of an appropriate tweet with this conversation:

https://x.com/Steelersdepot/status/1775509132277338489?s=20

Quote

Buy Or Sell: Steelers Right Now Have ‘Bottom Five’ WR Room

Personally, as good as Pickens is he's yet to produce consistently enough to really count as a WR1.  I really feel both Pickens and DJ were "SuperWR2's" and they both benefitted from it.  Watkins, Jefferson, Austin are all more WR3/4 types to me than actual WR2's.

I am more prepped for a trade down in RD1 or 2 than anything else.  We still have a lot of needs, not just starting but also future.  On top of that we're 3 weeks from the draft and there's also still so much available talent out there.

IMO there might be some feeling of let the draft fall, then go into post-draft FA to stopgap the spots you didn't feel or feel like you have a guy that needs some development.

Just looking at some top available talent areas and what I'm thinking:

S - Depth here is lacking - Justin Simmons, Quandre Diggs

CB - Depth here is lacking, CB3 non-existent, CB2 iffy - Stephon Gilmore, Steven Nelson (not likely), Xavien Howard, Adoree' Jackson, Avonte Maddox (when healthy fixes out CB3 issue), Patrick Peterson (I think this is very likely), Levi Wallace (I feel he got too much unnecessary hate), Fabian Moreau, Daryl Worley, Ahkello Witherspoon

OL - Needing at least 1 starter and 1 future guy - Connor Williams (this can make sense if Herbig is your place holder at C), Makhi Becton (Still draft a RT but Becton can start the year for you there), Andre Dillard (I liked him last year and he's a decent stop gap option), Donovan Smith (holding machine but stopgap upside), Charles Leno (repeat of others)

DL - Needs depth and a future - Teair Tart, Calais Campbell (could be a one year stop gap with a later round developmental player), Chris Wormley

WR - Still really lacking here - Tyler Boyd (reports are that he had an offer, asked for more, steelers balked and that's why he's unsigned), Michael Gallup (injuries are a concern), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Can separate and is big).

I'm also going to throw a OL curveball out there.  I wouldn't mind seeing us nab Dalton Risner at a reasonable rate right now because he was really good at G the last two years, is underappreciated, and you can slide Daniels to C.  I know this isn't an all star list above of guys who suddenly make us SB contending but it's a lot of guys that I look at and think that if we needed to play them for the short term while someone developed (Peterson for Porter) or I needed them to provide competition and spot snaps for a high pick I would feel very comfortable with that.

The most obvious one to me at this point is to try to sign Williams, having Herbig start the season at C.  That allows Williams not to have to rush back, and it opens up a pick for us.  My next two wouldn't be super obvious but signing Maddox and Simmons would really put that secondary in a great spot.  Eilliot can play more box S and small MOF zones where Simmons and Fitzpatrick can make deep balls a no-fly-zone.  Maddox, while injury prone, offers that slot ability we need.  Then my last one is to sign Teair Tart.  I don't see him as someone that takes DL off the board, but it doesn't force your hand in taking DL in the top 4 picks. 

If we went into the draft thinking that those could be post-draft FA signings, then it allows you to be more free.  Maybe you can move back from 20 to 27 in the first, have JPJ fall to there, and you pick him up at 27, cross Williams off the board.  Because you had the plan with Williams in the back pocket you didn't push yourself to take C at 20 and let the value of the trade back to 27 motivate you.  Maybe you take one of the 3rd round OT's in this class with bringing in a FA or just starting with the current setup and let the rookie work their way into the lineup.  I just really feel a plan like that just makes this draft make more sense even without knowing who will be on the board or what trades will be out there to be had.

[bigben07MVP]

58 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

He is the type of guy that makes me extremely underwhelmed so far with the off-season. We seem to be relying heavily on the draft for starting positions. 

Can we get a center in the second? Sure..but we can’t as freely move a pick that it might take to get a significant talent like his at a non-essential position right now (I still considering WR2 a luxury with Arthur smith until proven otherwise). 

Heard this idea on a pod recently but they could just end up taking Johnny Wilson late day 2/early day 3 and have him be the Mack Hollins mold WR2.