Time to Fire LaFleur, Gute, and Murphy And Burn The House Down

[LLcheesehead12]

6 hours ago, incognito_man said:

Sure, but you also need to acknowledge that the ONLY goal of teams is not "winning". It's making money.

Flashy WRs sell tickets. They make owners money. That's what drives market price.

It's not a convincing argument to point to the market as a indicator of their on-the-field value compared to very unsexy positions like OL.

Yeah but flashy WRs can also win you or get you to Superbowls as they have for the last several SB winners outside of maybe the 2018 Patriots, though they had a super TE on that team.

[squire12]

here is a look at the top 3 WR (in targets) for the final 4 play off teams over the last 5 years

If there are errors, let me know.  

• 6 WR were round 1 selections by that team
• 7 WR (5 unique WR) were round 1 selections by a different team
• 13 WR (10 unique WR) were round 2 selections by that team
• 3 WR were round 2 selections by a different team
• 4 WR (3 unique WR) were round 3 selections by that team
• 1 WR was a round 3 selection by a different team
• the rest are day 3/UDFA players...  26 total and 19 unique WR in that pool

 take away....round 2 WR are represented in the final 4 teams top 3 WR at an slightly higher rate vs  round 1 WR

 

	round 1 with current team		Round 1 another team
	round 2 current team		round 2 another team
	round 3 current team		Round 3 another teaam
2021	LAR	Cincy	KC	SF
	Kupp	Chase	Hill	Deebo
	OBJ	Higgins	Hardman	Aiyuk
	Van Jefferson	Boyd	Pringle	Juan Jennings
2020	TB	KC	BUF	GB
	Evans	Hill	Diggs	Adams
	Godwin	Hardman	Beasley	MVS
	Antonio Brown	Robinson	Gabe Davis	Lazard
2019	KC	SF	TEN	GB
	Watkins	Deebo	Brown	Adams
	Hill	Sanders	Davis	MVS
	Robinson	Bourne	Humphries	Allison
2018	NE	LAR	KC	NO
	Edelman	Woods	Hill	Thomas
	Gordon	Cooks	Watkins	Tre'Quan Smith
	Hogan	Kupp	Conley	Ginn
2017	Philly	NE	Jax	Minnesota
	Jeffery	Cooks	Lee	Theilen
	Agholor	Amendola	Cole	Diggs
	Torrey Smith	Hogan	Hurns	Treadwell

Edited November 12, 2022 by squire12
Corrected AJ Brown round selection

[MacReady]

1 hour ago, LLcheesehead12 said:

Yeah but flashy WRs can also win you or get you to Superbowls as they have for the last several SB winners outside of maybe the 2018 Patriots, though they had a super TE on that team.

?

The Rams didn’t have a first round WR they drafted. The Bengals did. Who won?

The Buccaneers took 8 years between drafting Evans and winning a Super Bowl with him.

Then you have the Chiefs who didn’t have a WR they drafted in one, Patriots, Eagles, Patriots. The Broncos had D. Thomas, 22nd overall, who they drafted 5 years before they won with him. Patriots again, then Seahawks, then the Ravens, Giants, Packers, Saints…

Which teams are using first round picks on receivers and those receivers being big players in their Super Bowl wins?

I count the Buccaneers as the only one, and that took them eight years.

And don’t give me the Agholor types. If they’re a first round WR that sucks who happens to win a Super Bowl, that’s against the spirit of this debate.

[skibrett15]

4 hours ago, Cpdaly23 said:

First, you are arguing that WR’s are a core position now because rookie deals vs. the top end of the spectrum.  My post was in response to that.

But if you insist…

I am in the minority in that I don’t think the problem with our offense is “not enough WR’s”.  This is like 3rd or 4th on my list of what I believe ails this offense.  Right behind…

1) QB insisted reversion to MM type scheme

2) Offense line musical chairs and underperformance (some injury related) 

3) Regression from the QB 

Now that I have some caveats out of the way, it NEVER made any sense for us to let go of MVS.  I would have signed him to the exact deal KC did.  He’s not a great player, but he can stretch a defense and open up everything underneath for your RB’s, TE’s, and inexperienced WR’s.  Heck. Look at our offense in 2021 with MVS vs without MVS- our scoring output dropped 6 points a game without him.  
 

‘I also would have gone after Austin Hooper.  That would be a WR and TE for a net 16MM in 2023.  

1) I agree that WR is not the biggest issue on the team

2) I do think MVS would be a helpful piece on this team.  I'm not so sure he's a more helpful piece than adrian amos though, or any of the other 8M cap hits on the team.  He's playing with the best QB in the world, and he's not really flashing.

3) The issue I'll bring it back to, and you're right about my original point - rookie deal vs top of market - is that you have to fill your WR room somehow. 

So rather than paying these mediocre players who are getting 10-15/year, or these great players who are making 25/year... why not try for great players who make 2-4/year but are rookies.  Then pocket the "savings" and sign the next Zadarius Smith or Darius Slay.

 

Maybe the solution is to continue trying in the 2nd round, or the mid rounds, but I don't think you ever get the best of the best in the 2nd, and I don't think getting the best WR is really any less important than the best CB or the best LT or the best Edge. 

Obviously certain players break trends and outperform any drafted player in the past 10-20 years - Aaron Donald is a perfect example, Aaron Rodgers another, Patrick Mahomes another.  But when you look at the norms and not the outliers it seems like WR is becoming, and this is NEW mind you, one of the premium positions in the NFL alongside Edge, CB, LT, and QB.

 

[MacReady]

@squire12 must have a subscription to PFR advanced stats or whatever that’s called.

Thanks.

If people use Agholor and Treadwell I’m gonna be pissed.

If drafting a crap WR gets you Super Bowl wins I give up.

Which ones are Brown/Davis?

[squire12]

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/sort-value/wide-receiver/limit-20/

top 20 WR in AAV for 2022

Fact check for errors

11 of the top 20 are on teams that are currently in playoff position (top 7 in either conference) highlighted in green

1 of those is Keenan Allen and he has played like 2 games thus far in 2022

Feels like spending money just to do so because some other teams are in the league is not the best team building decision

RANK	PLAYER	SIGNED AGE	YRS	VALUE	AAV
2	Tyreek HillWide Receiver | 2022-2026 (FA: 2027)	28	4	$120,000,000	$30,000,000
1	Davante AdamsWide Receiver | 2022-2026 (FA: 2027)	29	5	$140,000,000	$28,000,000
8	Cooper KuppWide Receiver | 2022-2026 (FA: 2027)	28	3	$80,100,000	$26,700,000
3	A.J. BrownWide Receiver | 2022-2026 (FA: 2027)	24	4	$100,000,000	$25,000,000
6	Stefon DiggsWide Receiver | 2022-2027 (FA: 2028)	28	4	$96,000,000	$24,000,000
10	D.K. MetcalfWide Receiver | 2022-2025 (FA: 2026)	24	3	$72,000,000	$24,000,000
13	Deebo SamuelWide Receiver | 2022-2025 (FA: 2026)	26	3	$71,550,000	$23,850,000
15	Terry McLaurinWide Receiver | 2022-2025 (FA: 2026)	26	3	$68,364,000	$22,788,000
18	D.J. MooreWide Receiver | 2022-2025 (FA: 2026)	24	3	$61,884,000	$20,628,000
8	Keenan AllenWide Receiver | 2020-2024 (FA: 2025)	28	4	$80,100,000	$20,025,000
3	Amari CooperWide Receiver | 2020-2024 (FA: 2025) Originally signed w/ DAL	25	5	$100,000,000	$20,000,000
20	Mike WilliamsWide Receiver | 2022-2024 (FA: 2025)	27	3	$60,000,000	$20,000,000
5	Michael ThomasWide Receiver | 2019-2024 (FA: 2025)	25	5	$96,250,000	$19,250,000
10	Kenny GolladayWide Receiver | 2021-2024 (FA: 2025)	27	4	$72,000,000	$18,000,000
10	Christian KirkWide Receiver | 2022-2025 (FA: 2026)	25	4	$72,000,000	$18,000,000
14	Tyler LockettWide Receiver | 2021-2025 (FA: 2026)	28	4	$69,000,000	$17,250,000
7	Mike EvansWide Receiver | 2018-2023 (FA: 2024)	24	5	$82,500,000	$16,500,000
16	Robert WoodsWide Receiver | 2020-2025 (FA: 2026) Originally signed w/ LAR	28	4	$65,000,000	$16,250,000
17	Adam ThielenWide Receiver | 2019-2024 (FA: 2025)	28	4	$64,200,000	$16,050,000
19	Courtland SuttonWide Receiver | 2021-2025 (FA: 2026)	26	4	$60,800,000	$15,200,000

[squire12]

7 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

@squire12 must have a subscription to PFR advanced stats or whatever that’s called.

Thanks.

If people use Agholor and Treadwell I’m gonna be pissed.

If drafting a crap WR gets you Super Bowl wins I give up.

Which ones are Brown/Davis?

No subscription.  just looked at playoff results and went year by year, select each team and sort passing stats by targets.  Tedious for sure, but doable

AJ Brown and Corey Davis for TEN....looks like that is an error as Brown was a 2nd round pick.

Edited November 12, 2022 by squire12

[squire12]

Looking at draft capital of the current top 20 WR in AAV

• round 1 = 4
• round 2 = 8
• round 3 = 5
• round 5 = 2
• UDFA = 1

round selected	RANK	PLAYER	SIGNED AGE	YRS	VALUE	AAV
5	2	Tyreek HillWide Receiver | 2022-2026 (FA: 2027)	28	4	$120,000,000	$30,000,000
2	1	Davante AdamsWide Receiver | 2022-2026 (FA: 2027)	29	5	$140,000,000	$28,000,000
3	8	Cooper KuppWide Receiver | 2022-2026 (FA: 2027)	28	3	$80,100,000	$26,700,000
2	3	A.J. BrownWide Receiver | 2022-2026 (FA: 2027)	24	4	$100,000,000	$25,000,000
5	6	Stefon DiggsWide Receiver | 2022-2027 (FA: 2028)	28	4	$96,000,000	$24,000,000
2	10	D.K. MetcalfWide Receiver | 2022-2025 (FA: 2026)	24	3	$72,000,000	$24,000,000
2	13	Deebo SamuelWide Receiver | 2022-2025 (FA: 2026)	26	3	$71,550,000	$23,850,000
3	15	Terry McLaurinWide Receiver | 2022-2025 (FA: 2026)	26	3	$68,364,000	$22,788,000
1	18	D.J. MooreWide Receiver | 2022-2025 (FA: 2026)	24	3	$61,884,000	$20,628,000
3	8	Keenan AllenWide Receiver | 2020-2024 (FA: 2025)	28	4	$80,100,000	$20,025,000
1	3	Amari CooperWide Receiver | 2020-2024 (FA: 2025) Originally signed w/ DAL	25	5	$100,000,000	$20,000,000
1	20	Mike WilliamsWide Receiver | 2022-2024 (FA: 2025)	27	3	$60,000,000	$20,000,000
2	5	Michael ThomasWide Receiver | 2019-2024 (FA: 2025)	25	5	$96,250,000	$19,250,000
3	10	Kenny GolladayWide Receiver | 2021-2024 (FA: 2025)	27	4	$72,000,000	$18,000,000
2	10	Christian KirkWide Receiver | 2022-2025 (FA: 2026)	25	4	$72,000,000	$18,000,000
3	14	Tyler LockettWide Receiver | 2021-2025 (FA: 2026)	28	4	$69,000,000	$17,250,000
1	7	Mike EvansWide Receiver | 2018-2023 (FA: 2024)	24	5	$82,500,000	$16,500,000
2	16	Robert WoodsWide Receiver | 2020-2025 (FA: 2026) Originally signed w/ LAR	28	4	$65,000,000	$16,250,000
UDFA	17	Adam ThielenWide Receiver | 2019-2024 (FA: 2025)	28	4	$64,200,000	$16,050,000
2	19	Courtland SuttonWide Receiver | 2021-2025 (FA: 2026)	26	4	$60,800,000	$15,200,000

[AlexGreen#20]

Basically every piece of data available says R2 is the sweet spot for WR drafting. 

[Striker]

10 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Do it yourself. I will do receivers. You can use the same rules.

Bust/hit. One pro bowl season does not make a hit. They have to have had significant value to the team that drafted them. If no top ten receiver, the first one selected in the top 20. Use the same rules for any position and I bet you cannot find a position that busts as frequently or as hard. Keep in mind how hard most of these busts busted. Blackmon, Williamson, Rogers, Williams (x4)...

Let's go with top ten picks alone. Can we reach a solid ground there?

2000: Peter Warick, Plaxico Burress, Travis Taylor
3 busts.

2001: Koren Robinson, David Terrell
2 busts.

2002: 13th overall was the closest to top ten.

2003: Charles Rogers, Andre Johnson
1 hit, 1 bust.

That's 6 to1 so far. Do you think any other position has that failure rate?

2004: Fitzgerald, Williams, Williams
Roy Williams was not a top 10 player and I am calling him a bust.
2 busts, 1 hit.

2005: Braylan Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams
3 busts

2006: No top 20 WR picks

2007: Calvin Johson, Ted Ginn
1 hit, 1 bust

2008: No top 20 receivers

2009: Darius Heyward Bay, Michael Crabtree
2 busts

2010: None

2011: AJ Green, Julio Jones
2 hits

2012: Justin Blackmon
1 bust

2013: Tavon Austin
1 bust

2014: Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans
1 hit, 1 bust

2015: Amari Cooper, Kevin White
-I would make a serious argument that the very nature of WR makes Cooper a bust. You're attracting selfish behavior, but I will give you a hit on Cooper.
1 hit, 1 bust

2016: Corey Coleman (15th overall)
1 bust

2017: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross (all drafted ahead of Mahomes by the way)
3 busts (and hard busts)

2018: No top 20 receivers

2019: None

2020: Henry Ruggs
1 bust

2021: Waddle, Chase, Smith
2 hits, 1 bust

2022: Drake London, Garrett Wilson (We won't count these ones yet, but possible hits)

So that's 24 busts to 9 hits.

That's a 27% hit rate.

Do you think any other position fails that often? Maybe quarterback, but the value there is not commensurate.
 

I'll help out w/ OT.

2000 - Chris Samuels (Hit)

2001 - No OT taken in top 10

2002 - Mike Williams (Bust), Bryant McKinnie (Hit)

2003 - Jordan Gross (Hit)

2004 - Robert Gallery (Bust)

2005 - No OTs in top 10

2006 - D'Brickashaw Ferguson (Hit)

2007 - Joe Thomas (Hit), Levi Brown (Bust)

2008 - Jake Long (Hit)

2009 - Jason Smith (Bust), Andre Smith (Bust), Eugene Monroe (Bust)

2010 - Trent Williams (Hit), Russell Okung (Hit)

2011 - Tyron Smith (Hit)

2012 - Matt Kalil (Bust)

2013 - Eric Fisher (Hit), Luke Joeckel (Bust), Lane Johnson (Hit)

2014 - Greg Robinson (Bust), Jake Matthews (Hit)

2015 - Brandon Scherif (Hit), Ereck Flowers (Bust)

2016 - Ronnie Stanley (Hit), Jack Conklin (Hit)

2017 - No OTs in top 10

2018 - Mike McGlinchey (Bust)

2019 - No OTs in top 10

2020 - Andrew Thomas (Bad rookie year, but playing out of his mind this year), Jedrick Willis (Trending Bust)

2021 - Penei Sewell (Trending hit)

29 total. 17 are hits, 12 are busts.

So an almost 58 percent hit rate.

[AlexGreen#20]

5 hours ago, Striker said:

I'll help out w/ OT.

2000 - Chris Samuels (Hit)

2001 - No OT taken in top 10

2002 - Mike Williams (Bust), Bryant McKinnie (Hit)

2003 - Jordan Gross (Hit)

2004 - Robert Gallery (Bust)

2005 - No OTs in top 10

2006 - D'Brickashaw Ferguson (Hit)

2007 - Joe Thomas (Hit), Levi Brown (Bust)

2008 - Jake Long (Hit)

2009 - Jason Smith (Bust), Andre Smith (Bust), Eugene Monroe (Bust)

2010 - Trent Williams (Hit), Russell Okung (Hit)

2011 - Tyron Smith (Hit)

2012 - Matt Kalil (Bust)

2013 - Eric Fisher (Hit), Luke Joeckel (Bust), Lane Johnson (Hit)

2014 - Greg Robinson (Bust), Jake Matthews (Hit)

2015 - Brandon Scherif (Hit), Ereck Flowers (Bust)

2016 - Ronnie Stanley (Hit), Jack Conklin (Hit)

2017 - No OTs in top 10

2018 - Mike McGlinchey (Bust)

2019 - No OTs in top 10

2020 - Andrew Thomas (Bad rookie year, but playing out of his mind this year), Jedrick Willis (Trending Bust)

2021 - Penei Sewell (Trending hit)

29 total. 17 are hits, 12 are busts.

So an almost 58 percent hit rate.

There's some harsh busts in that group, which I think points to another advantage OTs have over WRs. They tend to be far more graceful busts, occasionally being saved to a switch to an IOL spot. I feel like when WRs bust, they tend to bust hard.

Robert Gallery sucked as a Tackle, but he was a passable Guard and started 100 games in an 8 year career.

Andre Smith was a passable RT for a minute and started 100 games in a 13 year career. 

Eugene Monroe was a good player before injuries torpedoed his career. 

Matt Kalil was a solid player before injuries torpedoed his career.

Ereck Flowers was terrible, but even he managed to start 100 games.

The 49ers felt good enough about McGlinchey to exercise his 5th year option. 

 

[mikemike778]

6 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Basically every piece of data available says R2 is the sweet spot for WR drafting. 

Probably.

You don't need flashy first round picks or expensive free agents. Drafting in the second round and drafting well is great for receivers. We built a very strong receiving group doing that. Then once we drafted Adams, decided not to bother again (until this year).

Last few years at receiver has been very frustrating. Instead of picking up receivers incrementally, we let the receiving group dwindle away until we just had Adams and bits. Then when Adams left, we just had bits. Receiver isn't a Grade A position that you have to throw first rounders at. But it is a position that you don't want to wait till you have nothing before you draft again.

 

 

 

[mikemike778]

14 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

yeah, I mean there might be some case to be made around the WR market is a bubble.  But so long as your team building philosophy is we are going to build around a passing game - you need a WR1 and that WR1 will either be highly paid, or on a rookie contract.

I don't think you need a pure alpha WR1

For me you want two legitimate starting calibre WR even if they are WR1/WR2 type guys and a solid WR3. Then you have what you need for a strong WR group. Hitting on your second rounders at the position will do that.

You can argue for Lazard but I don't think we have any legitimate starting calibre WR at the moment, we have plenty that would be great as your solid WR3 option.

[Mr Bad Example]

13 hours ago, squire12 said:

Drafting studs at just about any position is better than drafting busts at just about any position.  Seems like a very solid strategy.

 

 

The problem being some believe we never draft studs while all other teams hit on every premium pick and FA and trade.

[AlexGreen#20]

21 minutes ago, mikemike778 said:

Probably.

You don't need flashy first round picks or expensive free agents. Drafting in the second round and drafting well is great for receivers. We built a very strong receiving group doing that. Then once we drafted Adams, decided not to bother again (until this year).

Last few years at receiver has been very frustrating. Instead of picking up receivers incrementally, we let the receiving group dwindle away until we just had Adams and bits. Then when Adams left, we just had bits. Receiver isn't a Grade A position that you have to throw first rounders at. But it is a position that you don't want to wait till you have nothing before you draft again.

Doesn't the fact that MVS signed a 10 year AAV contract and Allen Lazard got a second round tender indicate that the unit was not, in fact, just "bits"