QB Talk Once Again.... sigh

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, NYJets4716 said:

They cannot afford to wait, they will miss out on any 2023 draft compensation. There is also the possibility at that point Rodgers walks into your training facilities and starts making things ugly, you aren't benching Rodgers for Love. This idea that it is realistic for the Packers to wait until September is ridiculous to me, they won't allow it to go until then, the NFL will also put pressure on them to get this deal done so they can start scheduling prime time games as the Jets are a big market team.

That's the problem.  You ASSUME the Packers need 2023 draft compensation.  I believe they're perfectly content waiting until after the draft if it means getting the compensation they want.  If I believe the Jets' offer comes up after the draft, I'm waiting for that package even if it means not receiving any 2023 draft compensation.  Let me ask you this, would you rather have a 3rd round pick this year or a FRP next year?

[NYJets4716]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That's the problem.  You ASSUME the Packers need 2023 draft compensation.  I believe they're perfectly content waiting until after the draft if it means getting the compensation they want.  If I believe the Jets' offer comes up after the draft, I'm waiting for that package even if it means not receiving any 2023 draft compensation.  Let me ask you this, would you rather have a 3rd round pick this year or a FRP next year?

The Packers were the ones running around telling everyone that they want Rodgers off the team, so acting like they have a range of options with Rodgers is insane. You aren't moving him to get insane compensation, you are moving him so that you can move that salary off and move onto Love as his 5th year option is coming up in May. But good luck thinking the Packers can tie up all that money with the QB position. 

[GangGreen420]

5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Minor details don't make a contract take 2 days to be completed.  The fact is that it would be considered tampering if they discussed a new deal with Chubb prior to the trade being completed.  Odds are the Dolphins knew what Chubb would want, which isn't a hard assumption to make given the EDGE market.  They made the trade with the belief that they would find a deal, and in the event that they didn't get a deal done before his contract expired they could always use the franchise tag to keep him there.

If this is what you want to believe to try to make it a more palatable comparison, more power to you.

[GangGreen420]

Let it drag out as long as you have to

Maybe Gut will go on a power play and pick up the phone and start listening to all of these other teams that are lined up for Rodgers services behind the scenes 

[CWood21]

5 minutes ago, NYJets4716 said:

The Packers were the ones running around telling everyone that they want Rodgers off the team, so acting like they have a range of options with Rodgers is insane. You aren't moving him to get insane compensation, you are moving him so that you can move that salary off and move onto Love as his 5th year option is coming up in May. But good luck thinking the Packers can tie up all that money with the QB position. 

No.  Mark Murphy was the one who let it slip that they were looking to move on from Rodgers.  And I'd fathom a guess that most of the league new at that point.  You seem to ignore the fact that the Woody Johnson made it very public he was franchise QB shopping this offseason and they sent their entire FO, coaching staff, and ownership to convince Aaron Rodgers.  Let's not pretend like the Jets aren't equally invested in acquiring Rodgers as the Packers are at unloading him.

[NYJets4716]

1 minute ago, GangGreen420 said:

Let it drag out as long as you have to

Maybe Gut will go on a power play and pick up the phone and start listening to all of these other teams that are lined up for Rodgers services behind the scenes 

That contract is disgusting, idk what other team would want to take that contract up plus offer all these picks. 

[CWood21]

5 minutes ago, GangGreen420 said:

If this is what you want to believe to try to make it a more palatable comparison, more power to you.

I'm sorry I'm not the one doing mental gymnastics trying to make things fit differently than what you'd like to have happened, and then changing the goalposts.

[CWood21]

41 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

So to summarize something like this seems about right.

New York Jets Receive:
#15
#116
QB Aaron Rodgers
'25 Conditional Pick**

Green Bay Packers Receive:
#13
#45
'24 Conditional Pick*
 

* For the conditional pick the Packers receive, the Packers receive a FRP if the Jets make it to the Super Bowl.  They receive a SRP if the Jets make the playoffs.  And if the Jets miss the playoffs all together, the Packers get a 3rd round pick for Aaron Rodgers.  If for some reason Rodgers doesn't play a single snap for the Jets, they owe the Packers nothing.

** For the Jets' conditional pick, the pick is extinguished if Rodgers plays even 1 snap in 2024 whether it be with the Jets or another team.  IF Rodgers doesn't play in 2024, the Jets receive a SRP if they give the Packers a FRP in 2023.  The Jets receive a 3rd round pick in 2025 if the Jets give the Packers a 2nd round pick in 2024.  And the Jets receive a 4th round pick if the Packers receive the Jets' 3rd round pick in 2024.

EDIT: If the Packers want Corey Davis in the deal included to add a veteran WR to the room, he could be added but not in lieu of value from a draft pick.

Since it appears to have gotten paged, I'd love to know what Jets' fans feel about this package.

[GangGreen420]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm sorry I'm not the one doing mental gymnastics trying to make things fit differently than what you'd like to have happened, and then changing the goalposts.

Weak comp is weak 

[NJerseypaint]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Since it appears to have gotten paged, I'd love to know what Jets' fans feel about this package.

Complicated but I'm for it.

[Bobby816]

4 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Since it appears to have gotten paged, I'd love to know what Jets' fans feel about this package.

I think this is close to the ballpark it will go down as.

Some details I see being different such as it being a 2nd if we make the playoffs. Making the playoffs should be easy for us relatively speaking if he's on our team. I mean we almost made it last year. Also with expanded playoffs that's too easy. So I'd have that more at 1st for SB, 2nd of we make it to the AFCCG, 3rd if we make the playoffs, 4th if we miss the playoffs.

 

Keep in mind that our 2nd rounder and let's say 3rd rounder in 2024 would equal to the value of a late 1st this year (and that's with me putting that 3rd as a very late 3rd). Us doing a 2nd and lets say we make it to the AFCCG that equals around the 24th pick type range.

 

So if the goal is a 1st on GB side. It's safe to say that it's almost a lock for you ti get a 1st round value in a scenario like that. 

[CWood21]

5 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I think this is close to the ballpark it will go down as.

Some details I see being different such as it being a 2nd if we make the playoffs. Making the playoffs should be easy for us relatively speaking if he's on our team. I mean we almost made it last year. Also with expanded playoffs that's too easy. So I'd have that more at 1st for SB, 2nd of we make it to the AFCCG, 3rd if we make the playoffs, 4th if we miss the playoffs.

 

Keep in mind that our 2nd rounder and let's say 3rd rounder in 2024 would equal to the value of a late 1st this year (and that's with me putting that 3rd as a very late 3rd). Us doing a 2nd and lets say we make it to the AFCCG that equals around the 24th pick type range.

 

So if the goal is a 1st on GB side. It's safe to say that it's almost a lock for you ti get a 1st round value in a scenario like that. 

The problem is you're not devaluing future picks.  A 3rd round pick this year isn't worth a 3rd round pick next year, so even assuming it's a late 3rd round pick in 2024 doesn't mean it's equal to a 2023 late 3rd round.  That's an issue that I don't think you're evaluating correctly.

So the "floor" of a SRP this year and a 3rd round pick next year is more like a SRP and a 4th round pick this year, which falls well short of a FRP+ worth of value.

[GangGreen420]

19 minutes ago, NYJets4716 said:

That contract is disgusting, idk what other team would want to take that contract up plus offer all these picks. 

Got to just stick to their guns and show resolve, no matter how much “leverage” Green Bay wants to pretend to have

[NJC33]

36 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

So a guy who was 90% retired and changed his mind when learning that the Packers were shopping him that isn't driven by money is simply going to return to Green Bay to sit on the bench?  The Packers have been pretty clear, the 2024 Green Bay Packers QB1 is Jordan Love.  You're telling me that you think Rodgers' ego is going to be okay sitting on the bench collecting $60M?

You're missing the point. His ego ensures he won't just rollover if the Packers were to utterly screw him. He would, by all means, fight back - meaning, he isn't going to do the literal one thing that would save the Packers from a disastrous situation... while also forfeiting $60m in the process.

And, fighting back doesn't mean he'd be collecting from the sideline. The situation would likely be so toxic he's excused from the team, maybe he gets "injured" or restructures his to deal to be cut while still inflicting as much pain possible..etc.

Taking a step back.. You realize what a sh*t show it would be if GB attempted to forcibly end his career rather than trading him? You really think that'll go smoothly? The entire football world, sports world, would castrate the Packers.

None of this is going to happen, nor is it meant to say the Packers have no leverage, of course they do, but at some point (both) sides will have to give. To think there's a scenario in which the Packers refuse to trade Rodgers and he'll simply retire so they can walk away unscathed is beyond delusional.

[Rockice_8]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

So to summarize something like this seems about right.

New York Jets Receive:
#15
#116
QB Aaron Rodgers
'25 Conditional Pick**

Green Bay Packers Receive:
#13
#45
'24 Conditional Pick*
 

* For the conditional pick the Packers receive, the Packers receive a FRP if the Jets make it to the Super Bowl.  They receive a SRP if the Jets make the playoffs.  And if the Jets miss the playoffs all together, the Packers get a 3rd round pick for Aaron Rodgers.  If for some reason Rodgers doesn't play a single snap for the Jets, they owe the Packers nothing.

** For the Jets' conditional pick, the pick is extinguished if Rodgers plays even 1 snap in 2024 whether it be with the Jets or another team.  IF Rodgers doesn't play in 2024, the Jets receive a SRP if they give the Packers a SRP in 2023.  The Jets receive a 3rd round pick in 2025 if the Jets give the Packers a 2nd round pick in 2024.  And the Jets receive a 4th round pick if the Packers receive the Jets' 3rd round pick in 2024.

EDIT: If the Packers want Corey Davis in the deal included to add a veteran WR to the room, he could be added but not in lieu of value from a draft pick.

Honestly not terrible although still too much for my liking.  I would try and beat you up and say winning a Superbowl gets you the 2024 1st, making it gets you a 2nd, and playoffs gets you a 3rd.  Retirement gets you nothing pre draft or you return the same round to the Jets in 2025 if it's post draft. 

13 to 15 is about a late 3 and I'd offer you a 43 for 78 swap which is basically another early 3rd late 2nd.  That's essentially two 3's (one early one late in value).  Your real value is in 2024 if Rodgers takes us deep and plays another year.  I'd say a 3rd is pretty likely (playoff bound) so you'd be getting 3 thirds Rodgers for mostly likely or more.  Two 3rds for a 1-year rental sounds reasonable if he bails after a year. 

I'd love to hand you a 2024 1st for a Superbowl win trust me.