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Highsmith


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10 sacks 4 FF so far and most of this was without Watt and an anemic offence which allowed the oppositions to run and not pass as much.

what do you think his stat line will be at seasons end?

what would you sign him for or expect him to get ? This is year 3, so is he restricted at seasons end?

I would try to keep him, trade DJ and spend that on Highsmith.

I can see him with 17 sacks and 7 FF now that Watt is back and lesser opponents and especially if our offence can get some points. 

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1 hour ago, MOSteelers56 said:

He'll be under contract next season too. I imagine he'll be a prime candidate for an extension in the off-season. I don't know where he'll end up in terms of numbers. I could see him get 15 pretty easily. Once Watt gets back up to speed, he may steal some of Highsmiths sacks. 

Highsmith has continues to improve, I still see him getting better. Maybe add JJ Watt inside next year and see how that helps 😜

The season is most likely  ending  not being in the playoffs  but Highsmith has been a positive.  Keep him longterm , trade DJ to pay for that

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I have a hard time seeing a team commit $50M against the cap to a position that plays 2 at a time. I think Highsmith is headed for a tag. I am definitely in no way against signing him to an extension, but just taking a quick look and knowing the cap is rising, he is probably in line for $18M-$20M per....if not more. 

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31 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

I have a hard time seeing a team commit $50M against the cap to a position that plays 2 at a time. I think Highsmith is headed for a tag. I am definitely in no way against signing him to an extension, but just taking a quick look and knowing the cap is rising, he is probably in line for $18M-$20M per....if not more. 

Agree with this thinking but I’ll add if Watt goes out again next year and Highsmith looks pedestrian we my be able to keep him much cheaper. 

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16 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Agree with this thinking but I’ll add if Watt goes out again next year and Highsmith looks pedestrian we my be able to keep him much cheaper. 

It’s hard to let a proven pass rusher go but I’m not sure Highsmith is worth top 5-7 Edge $$$ despite our cap space looking really good after this offseason.

Its why I’m ok with Anderson in the 1st…you basically just used your 2023 1st on a 2024 huge need.

I know they wouldn’t do it but he would be a very interesting Tyreek Hill/AJ Brown situation where if they think they wouldn’t want to pay him long term, trade him this offseason for another 1st and a mid rounder or 2

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If we have a chance to draft a solid pass rusher earlier, Id jump at it.

Highsmith is what Haggans was to Porter and Woodley was to Harrison.   Take those big dogs away and they are JAGs.

Nothing Highsmith has shown tells me he is worth a huge contract.  $8m to 10m a year?   Maybe..but he isnt some stand alone doninant force we should break the bank on.   His production is too dependent on Watt staying healthy.

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I generally agree with the sentiment about Highsmith. I don't think he's worth huge money. But, I do think if there's a team that can afford to have two high priced pass rushers, it's a team with a rookie deal QB. We can afford to spend on other positions, especially if we don't go out and break the bank for a LT or CB. 

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8 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I generally agree with the sentiment about Highsmith. I don't think he's worth huge money. But, I do think if there's a team that can afford to have two high priced pass rushers, it's a team with a rookie deal QB. We can afford to spend on other positions, especially if we don't go out and break the bank for a LT or CB. 

As @Dcash4 said, the AAV on a deal for him is likely $17-$20 mill per.

I totally agree on being able to spend $$$…it just as you said though, WHAT positions does that $$ get spent on is the question that matters more.

I would base it off of how this upcoming FA and draft periods go…if they go drop a top 100 pick on an Edge guy, I’m leaning they view it as more of a Dupree/Highsmith scenario from 3 years ago even thouygh they desperately need depth.

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I don’t think that number is close to what Highsmith will get but if he does, good for him. Dupree got stud money putting up better numbers across from Watt while also looking like he could do it alone without him. Highsmith is in the $12-15mil range. 

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1 hour ago, warfelg said:

I don’t think that number is close to what Highsmith will get but if he does, good for him. Dupree got stud money putting up better numbers across from Watt while also looking like he could do it alone without him. Highsmith is in the $12-15mil range. 

We'll see what Highsmiths stats are after next year in regards to that. Bud wasn't doing much in terms of stat sheet production until his 4th year in the league. Highsmith is on pace to dwarf Bud's production. 

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25 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

We'll see what Highsmiths stats are after next year in regards to that. Bud wasn't doing much in terms of stat sheet production until his 4th year in the league. Highsmith is on pace to dwarf Bud's production. 

If you use pass rush win rates and the like Highsmith is much better with Watt than without, and with Watt he’s close to Buds rates, without he’s close to Buds pre-Watt rates. 

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I had a cancelled meeting and got bored so I wanted to check it out more in depth. 

Based on per game:

Player A: 3.4 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 0.1 FF, 1.2 QBhits, 0.64 tfl

Player B: 3.9 tackles, 0.4 sacks, 0.1 FF, 0.83 QBhits, 0.65 tfl

Player C : 3.5 tackles, 0.6 sacks, 0.1 FF, 1.3 Qbhits, 1 tfl

Player D : 4 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 0.0 FF, 1.03 QBhits, 0.95 tfl

Player A was on the same team as one of the premier pass rushers in the league (and was oddly outpaced in a season by a guy currently on the Steelers). Player C is the stud of the group, but got paid after a season playing next to another top end rusher. Player D has been in really solid defenses and has one of the best interior players with him. 

Player A, C, and D signed deals this year that average $22M, $23.5M, and $17.5M respectively. Player D is the lowest, but he is also the one that signed first -- that's big as 3 players signed larger contracts than him per year after.

Player B is Highsmith

Estimated tag next year is $17.5M for LB's, only going to rise based on the next money deals with Watt, Garrett, Bosa, and now the others hitting by 2024. 

Raw stats and similar story lines don't tell you everything, but I don't think we are talking about wildly different tiers from Chubb (A), Crosby (B), and Landry (C) to Highsmith. I believe that those guys are better than Highsmith, but we are not talking by a gigantic margin. Even if we say Highsmith is on tier 3 to those players on tier 2, the high end of that price point is likely the Landry deal at $17.5M now. Trey Hendrickson had very similar production out of a good defense too when he landed his deal last year for $16M per. 

Highsmith is right in line with all these guys and based on the tag in a really good space to take a risk if he can't cash in. If he has a strong finish to the year - TJ Watt or not - he is putting himself in a range to make similar numbers to those folks. Anything under $16M you just go ahead and name Khan GM of the year immediately. 

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