Analysis and Offseason

[jetsfan4life51]

Coaching Staff and Front Office

-Joe Douglas: JD has to have the biggest leash here.  We cannot fire and hire, fire and hire every 2-3 years in hopes we finally hit.  JD has overhauled this roster, despite missing a few FA signings.  BUT I have a counterargument.  These overpaid vets are good locker room presences for the young talent we are bringing in.  And at the time of the signings these were all heralded moves.  Can't fault him for players sucking or the coaches not using them to their best abilities.  JD should be leading this charge for quite a while IMO.  Sure we can argue Fields would be running wild with Breece and Bam, but this is the same OL that is decimated and we are killing each week.  I liked Fields as well but I'm not going to act like we're a Super Bowl team with Fields over Wilson.  I see a silver lining....JD now knows what it takes to support and develop a QB, or at least should know.  He has seen Sam fail and Zach bust, for similar and different reasons. I trust him to target a vet and then draft someone to develop down the road.

-Robert Saleh: I put him in a notch below JD.  We need consistency and continuity.  His message is getting through.  Players play for him and believe in him.  He's had a HUGE turnaround here.  From laughing stock to meaningful games on Christmas.  We would have all signed our lives away for that.  He has head scratching clock management but I actually like how he handles press conferences. If we have another 3-5 win season under him OR he refuses to move on from Ulbrich/MLF than that will be his demise.

-Mike LaFleur: Anyone who thinks he will be poached for a HC job has got to be kidding themselves.  He's what 35? And zero track record.  He leaves a lot to be desired and almost every game he outsmarts himself.  He cannot get QBs into a rhythm unless the run game is working.  I won't look back at every single game but at least this season we are undefeated when we run 25+ times and winless when we run 24 or less.  That is our identity and to reasons unknown to fans he likes to get cute.

-Jeff Ulbrich: if we didn't have Q, Reed and Sauce his head would have been on a stick already.  If it wasn't for Q speaking up about the rotation then we don't have a dominant stretch of games on defense.  His scheme is so vanilla and beatable.  The reason we dominate is when the DL gets after the QB and QBs try to beat Sauce and Reed.  If other teams focus on running between the tackles, working TEs/slot and dumping off to RBs they could march on us all day.  We are an overrated top 3 defense.  Need another piece or two but more importantly we need to add in a little bit of creativity.  Blitz once in a while.  Sauce always comes in untouched.  Play more press/man.  We get beat in soft zone because we don't have Safeties and LBs built for that.

Offense

-QB: keep Mike White, bring in a vet, 2023 or 2024 draft a guy to develop.  Simple.  Zach has no respect here we have to cut loses.

-RB: the best room in the league? Just need to be healthy.  Breece could go for 15-20 touches, Bam 5-10 touches, Carter a few screens.  No reason we shouldn't make this our focal point with how talented they are.  This is where we can take advantage of developing an athletic college QB.  Run 30-40 times a game and then get Wilson his 5-10 catches a game.

-WR: Mims and Davis shouldn't be near this team.  No compete, injury prone, drop prone.  Wilson and Moore should be the show and with a competent QB they both can put up 100 yard games together.  I would draft or bring in a big target on the outside to keep one of them in the slot and Berrios as the gadget/slot guy.

-OL: Crap this is going to be a tough decision.  Do we want to tear it all down? Do we want to spend more money and draft picks?  Do we give vets like Tomlinson one last go?  I believe continuity may be the best bet.  Keep Herbig as backup, give Laken one last shot and he is benchable next season.  Resign CMG.  AVT comes back, Becton and Mitchell hopefully come back.  That gives everyone familiarity and we draft one or two guys to battle.  We have seen many times when a big FA comes to a new team he takes time acclimating to the new city.  Laken is a leader and good dude I am willing to bet on him.

-TE: Uzomah and Conklin are solid, but not good enough to hold Ruckert out next season if he shows promise.  Also great locker room guys.

Defense

-End: Here is another dilemma.  Do we give Lawson a second chance coming off a major injury?  Clemons and JJ will be good run defenders who can push the pocket but will never be monster rushers.  Curry needs to retire and he is not a fit for this defense.  JFM is borderline useless now.  Huff doesn't play enough.  If Lawson remains, we still need another rush specialist.  If Lawson is cut then we need another starting caliber guy with how much they rotate.

-Tackle: Q is here to stay.  He could use a beefy guy next to him.  Foley was a good fit and we can easily find those tackles on Day 3.  I would bring back Rankins or Thomas again for the rotation but please no more Shep.  With how important the DL is I would not be surprised if Saleh wanted a high pick.

-LB: I am probably the biggest critic of the LBs on this team.  Saleh was right about Kwon.  He had honestly an awesome start to the season and has disappeared since.  He doesn't take care of his body and cannot be relied as a full time guy.  Mosley is not a good fit for this defense, he's a good leader but he needs to be in a different defense.  He also makes bonehead plays.  Quincy for every hard hit and TFL he misses 3 tackles/takes horrible angles and we get gashed.  Very hit or miss player, but not someone I want to get rid of.  Just want to get a true LB for this defense.  We need to combine Quincy's talents with Mosley's leadership into one guy.  

-CB: play these guys in man more often, let them win games for us.  Nothing else to say lol

-S: Joyner will be gone, is Whitehead worth paying that much to lay a hard hit here and there?  Not sure what position Tony Adams is being groomed for but we need a true ball hawking Safety.  That should be a priority. I feel like SS is so easy to find now-a-days. 

In House Free Agents

Fant- One great season at LT got to his head and he hasn't been able to handle going back to RT.  Also cannot stay healthy, GONE.

CMG- Solid Center, would love to upgrade in the draft but we have too much going on and need to keep someone. KEEP

Rankins/Thomas- I believe one of the two will be resigned.  They are great rotation pieces.  I wouldn't be upset if both guys were kept on short deals as well.

Joyner- He was a stop gap he's definitely out. GONE

Herbig- He needs to be kept as depth and can start in a pinch KEEP

Kwon- has disappeared during the second half of the season. GONE

Quincy- even if I think he get's overrated he has value and should be resigned.  KEEP

Curry/Shep- I would prefer neither guy comes back. GONE

SHAKE UP

There will be 1-2 statement moves this offseason.  IF Mike White comes back, the Jets go 2-0 and sneak into the playoffs, then I believe we may only see one move come to fruition.  Let's list the options:

1. Zach is cut/traded

2. MLF/Ulbrich is fired

3. Mosley/Lawson/Whitehead/Tomlinson/Davis cut

Regardless of what happens I do not see Zach touching the field for the Jets ever again, that is shake up number 1.  Which in turn is going to buy another season for both MLF and Laken Tomlinson.  However, Corey Davis doesn't come out on top.  He is simply too unreliable with health and hands.  Elijah Moore will get a chance to redeem himself and GW becomes the leader of the offense.  Saleh is loyal to his guy and will give him a full season of Mike White/whatever vet we sign.  Ulbrich also gets another season, unfortunately.  I believe he really has nothing to do with the success of the defense but after a massive improvement from 2021, he gets to see another year.  Laken gets to settle into NY, the injury bug from this season also makes us a little gun shy letting go of a starter.

On defense, I honestly think it's 50/50 anyone gets cut.  It seems like Saleh loves these guys.  Maybe we get a Mosley restructure.  If it was up to me I'd love to make a statement but I don't know if it happens.  Whitehead is the easiest to replace and hasn't done much here.  I don't know timing of when he needs to get cut but if we bring in a vet S through FA first, I can see him definitely out.  But he may also get the Ulbrich treatment.

Zach Wilson and Corey Davis cut

Jordan Whitehead cut  

Denzel Mims and Braden Mann also cut

Needs

1. Settling our QB situation

2. Fixing our OL

3. Safety and Safety

4. Big bodied WR

5. Young Linebacker

6. Space eating DT

7. Developmental pass rusher

8. Developmental QB

Free Agency

WR Noah Brown big bodied WR to take the Davis/Mims role.  He has some potential to do well, he can block in a run first offense, and then we can let it be the Wilson/Moore show.

FS Jimmie Ward makes too much sense here.  We need a FS, would be a great guy to replace Mosley as a leader and he has Saleh ties.

OT/OG Andre Dillard Now normally I would stay away from someone who has been injured but this is an intriguing pick up.  Former 1st round pick, can play inside and out, likely coached well in Philly.  However, would he sign here to compete for a job? Or will he go somewhere he is penciled in as the starter?

QB if I had a choice I would take Darnold on a prove it deal, but Jimmy G would be great to battle out with Mike White.  He's a locker room favorite which I think can go a long way for this team as opposed to 25 year old Darnold.

Some small moves will be made to round out the roster.

Needs after Free Agents

1. Still missing a Safety

2. Young, athletic LB

3. OL depth, someone to push vets

4. Space eating DT

5. Developmental pass rusher

6. Developmental QB (if someone interesting presents themselves, Jimmy and White aren't bad options the next two seasons)

NFL Draft

1.18, 2.49, 3.81, 4.113, 5.145, 6.160 (going off a website and current position, their picks are confusing with the trades)

TRADE- NYJ trade down to mid 20s with NYG or BAL who are desperate for a WR. Jets pick up a 3rd rounder and 6th rounder.

Round 1- I think this one is in the trenches and we have great options all over.  We've spent a 1st on Becton and a 1st on AVT but we still need stability and I think that outweighs taking a falling DT.  Broderick Jones OT Georgia: we don't know if Becton will be healthy or if Duane Brown will be back.  It's not the end of the world if he doesn't have to start.

Round 2- I actually prefer to go OL here but the way the board falls I think it may shake out this way.  There are a lot of safeties that will go in this range and after grabbing Jimmie Ward I believe we grab the next leader of our defense JL Skinner S Boise State: instantly replaces Jordan Whitehead and gives us Kam Chancellor upside.  Having his physicality and swagger to go along with Sauce will be incredible.

Round 3a- Keanu Benton NT Wisconsin: we grab a big NT to help plug the run.  Maybe this improves the play of the LBs?

Round 3b- Dee Winters LB TCU: athletic LB who can blitz.  Good project, maybe crack the lineup early. 

Round 4- Steve Avila OG/C TCU: no idea if he's slated to go here but we grab a developmental iOL

Round 5- Cedric Johnson EDGE Ole Miss: leader on his defense, may put up solid athletic numbers

Round 6a- speedy WR

Round 6b- Punter

Depth Chart

QB: Jimmy G, Mike White

RB: Breece Hall, Michael Carter, Bam Knight

WR: Garrett Wilson, Noah Brown

WR: Elijiah Moore, Braxton Berrios, 

TE: Tyler Conklin, CJ Uzomah, Jeremy Ruckert

LT: Duane Brown, Broderick Jones

LG: Laken Tomlinson

C- CMG, Avila

RG: AVT, Herbig

RT: Mekhi Becton, Andre Dillard, Max Mitchell

 

DE: Lawson, Huff, Johnson

DT: Q, Thomas

DT: JFM, Benton

DE: JJ, Clemons

LB: Quincy, Winters

LB: Mosley, Sherwood

CB: Sauce

CB: Reed

NCB: MCII

FS: Jimmie Ward

SS: JL Skinner

 

ANALYSIS

We can't fix everything in one shot but I think this is the closest way (on paper).  Over the next two offseasons 2024-25 Mosley, Tomlinson, Reed, Lawson, Becton, Conklin, Uzomah, JFM?, Jimmy G, CMG again? will all need to be replaced so we have to keep bringing in talent.  And we will eventually need a QB but without going too far down the road this gives us potential starters at LT and SS off the bat along with big contributors rotating at DT and LB.  Unless someone falls in the draft I would rather spend a higher pick in a year or two on a QB.  That way he doesn't have to learn multiple offenses if MLF is canned and we have more pieces around him.  This team is built around shutting down air attacks and running the ball.  We improve our OL in this to support our stable of RBs plus protect our QB.  Put up 250 yards and don't turn the ball over, keep it simple.  Less WRs to feature means more for GW and Moore.  Looking at Minny, Miami and Philly.....JJ is by himself with meh after and he gets it in, Cook is featured as well.  Philly has just AJ and Smith.  Miami has just Hill and Waddle.  We can feature the run and only have two WRs.  On defense by upgrading both Safeties we can really be scary.  I think that's all.

[xrade]

I like the draft. I don’t get cutting Lawson and Whitehead but keeping Tomlinson and McG. Tomlinson blows and McG sucks yet you want to get rid of two D players that contribute?  

[jetsfan4life51]

17 minutes ago, xrade said:

I like the draft. I don’t get cutting Lawson and Whitehead but keeping Tomlinson and McG. Tomlinson blows and McG sucks yet you want to get rid of two D players that contribute?  

Didn;t cut Lawson.  LT and CMG aren't given the job, we need vets so we aren't forced to play rookies, Mitchell and Herbig.

[xrade]

34 minutes ago, jetsfan4life51 said:

Didn;t cut Lawson.  LT and CMG aren't given the job, we need vets so we aren't forced to play rookies, Mitchell and Herbig.

Read it wrong. I saw the potential cuts under the “shake up” section. I’d still let McG walk and replace Tomlinson.  Get the vets via FA. 

[rickyt31]

I honestly have no notes. I really like this. You handled all my concerns and drafted prospects I really like right now. 

[jetsfan4life51]

18 hours ago, xrade said:

Read it wrong. I saw the potential cuts under the “shake up” section. I’d still let McG walk and replace Tomlinson.  Get the vets via FA. 

I'm not going to pretend I know what free agent OG and OC are good.  If you want to sub new guys that's fine.  I don't know if Laken's contract will prevent us from making other moves so I'm fine betting on him in year 2.

[NYJets4716]

I think Zach Wilson will be traded, there is always a team or coach who will be like "I'll fix that guy", he is very talented and someone will bite. It always happens. 

We can't really cut him because of the cap hit, trade is our best hope to clear that contract. 

Our offensive weapons are solid, we have a true WR1 in Garrett Wilson. Elijah Moore will be a good WR2, just needs consistent QB play and to be utilized.  Corey Davis is a good player, but his injuries are concerning and makes me wonder if we release him because of it. He can never stay healthy. 

RB room will be exciting if Breece Hall returns back to strength and can rebound from that injury, he looked special. But he is coming off of a ACL tear so we need to protect him and build him up.  Jets were 5-2 when Breece Hall was playing, he was the best player on the team.

OL needs to be overhauled, they are pathetically bad. Can't run block. In ways, I want to upgrade over McGovern. I feel like the middle has always looked bad on the OL since hes been here. We are stuck with Tomlinson due to contract, so he'll be back at LG. AVT back would be great, he was our best player on the OL.  OT might be 2 new starters. We have Becton on roster still, while we can't sit there and bank on him, he might surprise everyone and come back healthy and retake his career. Since Becton is on his 4th year of his rookie contract, I expect the Jets to see what happens with him.

 

Defense is close to being elite, they need to upgrade at certain spots.  DT depth, LB, S, and DE.  I expect to see jumps from guys like Jermaine Johnson and Micheal Clemons year 2.  We'll see how the Jets feel about Carl Lawson, he was coming off of a achilles injury, so they might want him around next year. Need to keep Bryce Huff. 

Biggest issues are really who is going to be at QB and fixing the OL.  

[JetsandI]

Place Kicker?

 

Jets led NFL in passing yard when Mike White was in the helm so MLF shouldn't be canned.  However, I can see that if redzone conversion doesn't improve.

 

Kind of sad that you are thinking of 2024 instead of 2023. lol.

[GangGreen420]

3 hours ago, NYJets4716 said:

  

Biggest issues are really who is going to be at QB and fixing the OL.  

New GM, new coach, same story for the Jets unfortunately. Let’s hope they can fix it.

Broderick Jones has been the popular pick in round 1 in most mocks. I like this draft.

[JetsandI]

Just now, GangGreen420 said:

New GM, new coach, same story for the Jets unfortunately. Let’s hope they can fix it.

Broderick Jones has been the popular pick in round 1 in most mocks. I like this draft.

Pass on Jones.   In recent history OL from UGA have no luck in NFL.  Andrew Thomas finally emerges this year but it is his 3rd season as pro.  Jones is 24 years old with UGA's traditionally bad technique.  Forget it.

[GangGreen420]

5 minutes ago, JetsandI said:

Pass on Jones.   In recent history OL from UGA have no luck in NFL.  Andrew Thomas finally emerges this year but it is his 3rd season as pro.  Jones is 24 years old with UGA's traditionally bad technique.  Forget it.

I loved Andrew Thomas that year lol

[JetsandI]

Just now, GangGreen420 said:

I loved Andrew Thomas that year lol

I did too. 

[NYJets4716]

33 minutes ago, JetsandI said:

Place Kicker?

 

Jets led NFL in passing yard when Mike White was in the helm so MLF shouldn't be canned.  However, I can see that if redzone conversion doesn't improve.

 

Kind of sad that you are thinking of 2024 instead of 2023. lol.

Yeah, I don't think its MLF either. When he has had anyone besides Zach at QB the offense moves. We also had to deal with a ton of injuries on the OL and losing Breece Hall was big.  Hall was carrying us, he is a elite talent at RB. 

[NJerseypaint]

2 hours ago, NYJets4716 said:

Yeah, I don't think its MLF either. When he has had anyone besides Zach at QB the offense moves. We also had to deal with a ton of injuries on the OL and losing Breece Hall was big.  Hall was carrying us, he is a elite talent at RB. 

Let's also not forget that Zach is mostly missing open receivers. It's not the play that was bad.

[NYJets4716]

17 hours ago, NJerseypaint said:

Let's also not forget that Zach is mostly missing open receivers. It's not the play that was bad.

yup, consistently we have open guys who the QB doesn't find. CJ Uzomah was open for a TD vs the Jaguars but Streveler isn't a NFL QB and underthrew him a lot. A competent QB hits CJ for a big TD with how wide open he was.