Is it actually worth it drafting RB's high + extending them?

[beekay414]

2 minutes ago, Dr LBC said:

It also depends on, from a perspective sense, a person willing to give an honest evaluation of where their team is at in terms of legitimately competing (I'm not talking just making the playoffs and having "a lottery ticket," but actually being favored to make a deep run) and whether that's just hopeful projected (heavily?) tinged by personal bias.

Would I think Buffalo would gratefully take Bijan in the 1st if they get a natural shot at him?  Hell yes.  It would add a dimension to their offense that (with all due respect to the runners they have under contract) they don't have outside of Josh Allen... but at the same time, being able to afford some of those reps (and hits/wear) that Allen might otherwise be taking to Bijan, because they already have a ton of money committed to Allen (as well as him playing a more difficult to attain position)... well that also is a boon.

Do I think a team should be spending a Top 15 pick on Bijan (or any generational running back) if they're picking the Top 15 for a good reason and not just a blip season caused be bulk injuries (i.e. they don't have a team pre-draft very capable and confident of making the playoffs)?  No.  Do I think teams in there still will for a myriad of reasons?  Absolutely.  I look at it similar to the idea of a Maserati as a daily driver; it really serves no practical purpose (aside from flash and ego) and will honestly probably cost you more in the expenditure dept (fuel, maintenance) than you'll ever really get the perks of having such a specimen because we have speed limits and no Autobahn in this country.  But if you offer it at a "discounted" (or at least perceived so) price to strings of people who have been stuck driving Ford Focus' and Honda Accords out of necessity, far more often than not you're going to find on of them to ****** up the keys before you get to the segment that drive Mustangs or even Lexus' come up in the order.

For sure. If we were completely rebuilding, which I don't think we are in the slightest, I'd be opposed to it. I don't think it happens regardless since we've got another year of Jones and Dillon before going forward with other RBs. Bijan and JSN are the two non-trench guys I'd be good with at 15. Think everyone in the Packers forum has come around to the fact that we're going to take an OT or EDGE at 15.

[General Tso]

Well, my team did it

It's time to start coping.

[incognito_man]

On 4/10/2023 at 3:35 PM, General Tso said:

 

Lmao, you post this, which is EXACTLY WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING about the Gibbs selection and you guys are arguing with me 🤣🤣🤣

[General Tso]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

Lmao, you post this, which is EXACTLY WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING about the Gibbs selection and you guys are arguing with me 🤣🤣🤣

I'm glad to know I'm popular enough to have a fan who searches my post history 🙂

As a fan of the team, obviously I have to justify it in some ways. Generally I agree with your take in an objective sense. I just think it's fine to do this once in a while when your team think it's already set at premium positions anyways. Do I disagree with them that they're "set"? Yea I would say so. I would have taken Gonzalez.

I'll give an example - Do you think the Giants regret taking Saquon over Sam Darnold? Considering their next FRPs were QB, OT, WR, OT and Edge, I think it's allowable. 

This is also to say, if your team is good at drafting in the late rounds, you can make up for "lost surplus" by getting value there.

[Chiefer]

On 4/28/2023 at 3:24 PM, General Tso said:

Well, my team did it

It's time to start coping.

Gibbs is gonna thrive in that offense. He’s fast and will take advantage of the holes your great OL provides. He’s also gonna be a great dump off option for the Goofster when he needs it. The boxes should be light with that high-powered passing attack keeping defenses honest.

A real blue chip option that can take it to the house on any snap, something that’s been missing in Detroit since Megatron retired. If that defense can be serviceable, y’all can make some serious noise next season and possibly beyond 

[incognito_man]

22 minutes ago, General Tso said:

I'm glad to know I'm popular enough to have a fan who searches my post history 🙂

As a fan of the team, obviously I have to justify it in some ways. Generally I agree with your take in an objective sense. I just think it's fine to do this once in a while when your team think it's already set at premium positions anyways. Do I disagree with them that they're "set"? Yea I would say so. I would have taken Gonzalez.

I'll give an example - Do you think the Giants regret taking Saquon over Sam Darnold? Considering their next FRPs were QB, OT, WR, OT and Edge, I think it's allowable. 

This is also to say, if your team is good at drafting in the late rounds, you can make up for "lost surplus" by getting value there.

Definitely didn't search your post history lol. I just read through this thread today again.

I think the Giants lost value with Barkley relative to at least half the guys taken immediately after him, yep.

(And props for putting yourself out there and saying you'd have taken CG instead. I 100% would have, too)

Edited May 2, 2023 by incognito_man

[Chiefer]

27 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Definitely didn't search your post history lol. I just read through this thread today again.

I think the Giants lost value with Barkley relative to at least half the guys taken immediately after him, yep.

(And props for putting yourself out there and saying you'd have taken CG instead. I 100% would have, too)

I just don’t think CG works out in Detroit, a place where ‘more of an athlete’ corner just failed and had to be shipped out. CG works for a team like the Patriots that have a defensive guru who can make anybody that shows up everyday into a good corner. CG had some basic coverage and toughness issues that concerned me in his draft evaluations, and it also concerned teams in the draft which is why he went 17th.

[THE DUKE]

I think tail end of rd 1 is the perfect spot to draft a RB.  You have 4 years of a guy you think can come in and start right away.  If he hits and is the man, 5th year option.  Still going strong after 5 years?  Franchise one year, and then let him go.

Even if you just get 4 years of good RB play, I think it still worth it in rds 2 and 3.  Just go in with eyes wide open of "probably not getting a 2nd contract".  4 years is a long time in the NFL, worth drafting high, as long as you were right about their talent.

[General Tso]

3 hours ago, incognito_man said:

Definitely didn't search your post history lol. I just read through this thread today again.

I think the Giants lost value with Barkley relative to at least half the guys taken immediately after him, yep.

(And props for putting yourself out there and saying you'd have taken CG instead. I 100% would have, too)

This only matters if your GM is smart enough to actually use that surplus towards other needs. Just looking at some of the teams that drafted immediately after them, that surplus value didn't amount to much for the incompetent teams.

I happen to trust in our GM to put together a roster. We'll see who's right in a year or two.

[incognito_man]

8 minutes ago, General Tso said:

This only matters if your GM is smart enough to actually use that surplus towards other needs. Just looking at some of the teams that drafted immediately after them, that surplus value didn't amount to much for the incompetent teams.

I happen to trust in our GM to put together a roster. We'll see who's right in a year or two.

How do you define being "right"? 

Here's mine: there will be a meaningful number of players (min 5) drafted within 12 picks after each of them who will get bigger 2nd contracts than Gibbs and Campbell and thus be valued more by the league.

What's the definition of success of Gibbs and Campbell relative to their peers in the draft?

[General Tso]

6 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

How do you define being "right"? 

Here's mine: there will be a meaningful number of players (min 5) drafted within 12 picks after each of them who will get bigger 2nd contracts than Gibbs and Campbell and thus be valued more by the league.

What's the definition of success of Gibbs and Campbell relative to their peers in the draft?

So as long as Gibbs/Campbell get a 2nd contract and the other guys are bums.. 

I think being right is as simple as is the team successful? Deep playoff runs? Were they right about their other players providing value enough that they can take non-premium positions?

[incognito_man]

2 minutes ago, General Tso said:

So as long as Gibbs/Campbell get a 2nd contract and the other guys are bums.. 

I think being right is as simple as is the team successful? Deep playoff runs? Were they right about their other players providing value enough that they can take non-premium positions?

State it in a measurable way such that we can all look back in 4 years and see explicitly if they met the benchmarks or not

[General Tso]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

State it in a measurable way such that we can all look back in 4 years and see explicitly if they met the benchmarks or not

At least one conference championship appearance during their rookie contract. Maybe this is too low, but I'll start with this.

[incognito_man]

4 minutes ago, General Tso said:

At least one conference championship appearance during their rookie contract. Maybe this is too low, but I'll start with this.

I think a conf championship appearance is generally indicative of solid team building strategy.

[General Tso]

10 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I think a conf championship appearance is generally indicative of solid team building strategy.

I also want to say that there's always exceptions to team building, even if they're extreme. The Commanders have been constantly taking DL. Now Chase Young isn't even getting a 5th year option and their team is going nowhere.

Devin White was a top 5 pick but was sandwiched by premium positions in other years. So in general I agree with you, but it's more palatable if your team is drafting premium positions in other years.