Is it actually worth it drafting RB's high + extending them?

[Tugboat]

On 3/27/2023 at 1:04 PM, scar988 said:

As my old used car manager used to say, "never buy a german, only rent them." 

 

RBs are BMWs and Audis.

Honestly, i think that's a kinda bunk take.

 

I'd subscribe to the idea when it comes to RBs...but when it comes to cars, there's nothing inherently problematic about German cars over time.  Can make jokes about how "over-engineered" they are where simple things get complicated to a hilarious degree...but as a whole, they at least used to be some of the most solid, bulletproof cars you could get.  Nothing is really built to last anymore.  But previously, German cars were kind of tanks in a lot of ways.  Like...if i was going to buy any sort of high mileage car...i'd probably want it to be a German one.  You know at least the motor, drivetrain as a whole, and key functional components are going to be designed to last.  It's probably not going to rust to pieces like a lot of Asian cars, or have the transmission or something explode like an American car.

 

 

But yeah...i think when it comes to RBs, it's a pretty prescient point.  It's okay to spend premium draft capital on one and get the most out of those rookie deal years.  Extending them long-term though...is dangerous territory.  They've just become such a short-term revolving door type position.  The real "premium" quality of top drafted RBs is that athleticism and explosiveness.  That's what you're really paying for in the draft.  That goes away pretty quickly for a lot of guys though.

[scar988]

1 minute ago, Tugboat said:

Honestly, i think that's a kinda bunk take.

 

I'd subscribe to the idea when it comes to RBs...but when it comes to cars, there's nothing inherently problematic about German cars over time.  Can make jokes about how "over-engineered" they are where simple things get complicated to a hilarious degree...but as a whole, they at least used to be some of the most solid, bulletproof cars you could get.  Nothing is really built to last anymore.  But previously, German cars were kind of tanks in a lot of ways.  Like...if i was going to buy any sort of high mileage car...i'd probably want it to be a German one.  You know at least the motor, drivetrain as a whole, and key functional components are going to be designed to last.  It's probably not going to rust to pieces like a lot of Asian cars, or have the transmission or something explode like an American car.

 

 

But yeah...i think when it comes to RBs, it's a pretty prescient point.  It's okay to spend premium draft capital on one and get the most out of those rookie deal years.  Extending them long-term though...is dangerous territory.  They've just become such a short-term revolving door type position.  The real "premium" quality of top drafted RBs is that athleticism and explosiveness.  That's what you're really paying for in the draft.  That goes away pretty quickly for a lot of guys though.

It's more the cost to maintain them becomes cumbersome. Much like running backs after a certain point, the money you are putting into them isn't yielding the results you want to get out of them. That's the point he was making. Cost to value takes a turn after the first 5 years.

[Slappy Mc]

The value of a single running back in todays NFL is very low IMO. Most teams employ 2-3 backs with different skill sets. If you can find one back that can perform multiple skill sets it makes their value higher, but we have all witness the toll it takes on a RB to be "overused".

IMO the 2nd round is the earliest I think a team should take a back AND extend them. The value of a 2nd round contract is significantly lower and you don't have the 5th year option to factor in. 5 years is an extremely long time for RBs in the NFL. If you are still an elite RB after your 5th year on a rookie contract, absolutely you should get paid. 

[Tugboat]

9 minutes ago, scar988 said:

It's more the cost to maintain them becomes cumbersome. Much like running backs after a certain point, the money you are putting into them isn't yielding the results you want to get out of them. That's the point he was making. Cost to value takes a turn after the first 5 years.

I just don't know that it really works as an analogy for me.

 

German "luxury" cars are where you pay a premium up front (which kind of aligns with drafting a RB high), then there's a period where they hit that depreciation wall and are usually pretty good value, even if they have some expensive maintenance to do in that timeframe.  Then they turn into real bargains usually as they age.  Where the engineering is solid and intended to last.  Which is...very much not applicable to most RBs.  lol.

[scar988]

5 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

I just don't know that it really works as an analogy for me.

 

German "luxury" cars are where you pay a premium up front (which kind of aligns with drafting a RB high), then there's a period where they hit that depreciation wall and are usually pretty good value, even if they have some expensive maintenance to do in that timeframe.  Then they turn into real bargains usually as they age.  Where the engineering is solid and intended to last.  Which is...very much not applicable to most RBs.  lol.

IDK man, paying $1000 for maintenance on a german car every 6-12 months is what has me out on those.

[Tugboat]

17 minutes ago, scar988 said:

IDK man, paying $1000 for maintenance on a german car every 6-12 months is what has me out on those.

Is that really a thing though?  Like i just don't really experience that personally.  Or anyone i know who owns a German car.

 

If it's a VW...yeah.  lol.  They're built like trash these days and have always had endless electrical system gremlins.  But outside of that, it feels anecdotally at least, like it's the people with Asian or American cars who are constantly shelling out to get stuff fixed.  Frankly...it's almost always some stupid electronic sensor with any modern cars these days.  Which just doesn't really relate to RBs for me.  I think i understand the analogy in a "stereotype" sort of sense, but it's not really accurate.

[Nabbs4u]

1 hour ago, squire12 said:

So if you are a player at any other position, you are good with the NFLPA pushing for RB to have shorter rookie contracts so they can hit FA sooner but not pushing for you?

Baby steps.

[tyler735]

5 hours ago, scar988 said:

IDK man, paying $1000 for maintenance on a german car every 6-12 months is what has me out on those.

My Maserati was between $1,000-$2,000 for yearly scheduled maintenance. I know it’s Italian not German, but it seems pretty much all the luxury brands have somewhat similar scheduled maintenance.

[scar988]

8 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

My Maserati was between $1,000-$2,000 for yearly scheduled maintenance. I know it’s Italian not German, but it seems pretty much all the luxury brands have somewhat similar scheduled maintenance.

Maseratis are so overrated too. Not a fan of them.

[y*so*blu]

This strategy fails more often than not. Running backs get banged up as much as anyone on the team, and there are generally good ones available in the later rounds, so it doesn't make a lot of sense to spend premium capital on a non-premium position. And of course that's exactly what Gettleman did. 😜

I count the Giants lucky for getting good production out of Saquon without giving him a monster extension. Plus he's the face of the team, a class act on and off the field, so that helps too.

Edited March 29, 2023 by y*so*blu

[tyler735]

1 hour ago, scar988 said:

Maseratis are so overrated too. Not a fan of them.

To each their own. I absolutely loved mine. Was a head turner wherever I went with it. Definitely not cheap though to maintain.

Edited March 29, 2023 by tyler735

[NYRaider]

On 3/27/2023 at 11:06 AM, HerbertGOAT said:

A better way to do this is look at the top 10 rushing offenses and see where their RBs are drafted. of course the most productive individual RBs are the ones who are drafted high. They have the ability, and the teams are inclined to give them the ball. But as a whole, RB By Committee allows for the production to be replaced at a lower cost.

Kind of skewed because you need a mobile QB to have a top tier rushing offense regardless of who you have at RB.

[scar988]

29 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

To each their own. I absolutely loved mine. Was a head turner wherever I went with it. Definitely not cheap though to maintain.

Yeah, I just don't think they drive too different than a Chevy.

 

My favorite cars are Japanese ones. Hondas, Toyotas, Nissans. I'd love to have a Z at one point.

[squire12]

6 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Baby steps.

Each step gives something to the other side in negotiations.   CBA coming around every 5-10 years makes it a tough sell to the other 90% of the NFLPA.

[tyler735]

32 minutes ago, scar988 said:

Yeah, I just don't think they drive too different than a Chevy.

 

My favorite cars are Japanese ones. Hondas, Toyotas, Nissans. I'd love to have a Z at one point.

Mine certainly did with a twin turbo Ferrari based engine. The engine note is one of the best out there as well. Such a cool sound when accelerating.