Who are the real first round talents?

[onejayhawk]

Who are the top half players?

It is a truism that there is only half a round of players that deserve to be drafted in the first round, hence Top Half players. Some years the number is less but rarely is it more than 20. However, position needs, particularly at QB, distort the actual draft. So, we get Trent McDuffie taken at #21. A rookie who plays 100% of the snaps while winning a Super Bowl probably deserved to go higher. 

For simplicity, lets omit the QBs. They are a special case and handled separately. An important aspect is where to draw the line and why. Please give your thinking. As a reminder, here is a consensus big board posted in the Athletic.

1	Will Anderson Jr.	Edge	Alabama
2	Bryce Young	QB	Alabama
3	C.J. Stroud	QB	Ohio State
4	Jalen Carter	DT	Georgia
5	Bijan Robinson	RB	Texas
6	Peter Skoronski	OT	Northwestern
7	Tyree Wilson	Edge	Texas Tech
8	Paris Johnson Jr.	OT	Ohio State
9	Myles Murphy	Edge	Clemson
10	Quentin Johnston	WR	TCU
11	Christian Gonzalez	CB	Oregon
12	Joey Porter Jr.	CB	Penn State
13	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	Ohio State
14	Michael Mayer	TE	Notre Dame
15	Jordan Addison	WR	USC
16	Brian Branch	DB	Alabama
17	Bryan Bresee	DT	Clemson
18	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	Alabama
19	Devon Witherspoon	CB	Illinois
20	Broderick Jones	OT	Georgia
21	Anthony Richardson	QB	Florida
22	Cam Smith	CB	South Carolina
23	Dalton Kincaid	TE	Utah
24	Nolan Smith	Edge	Georgia
25	Will Levis	QB	Kentucky
26	Lukas Van Ness	Edge	Iowa
27	Darnell Wright	OT	Tennessee
28	Trenton Simpson	LB	Clemson
29	Anton Harrison	OT	Oklahoma
30	Zay Flowers	WR	Boston College
31	O'Cyrus Torrence	G	Florida
32	Kelee Ringo	CB	Georgia

[MWil23]

I don’t have Gibbs in my Top 30. I think he’s fine as a receiver and a decent runner, but he’s on the small side and doesn’t “wow” me with anything he does athletically. I think he’s an average to low end starter and high end 3rd down back.

[jebrick]

So you mean have first round talent or some other grade?  Perhaps major impact by year 3?

 

Edited April 4, 2023 by jebrick

[onejayhawk]

21 minutes ago, jebrick said:

So you mean have first round talent or some other grade?  Perhaps major impact by year 3?

By year one. The example given is a rookie who started every down on a winning SB team.

There are usually about 15 in any given draft. Any QB in this group is almost certain to be drafted in the top 5 and often #1 overall but QBs outside the group are often draft in the first 16 picks, so I leave them out of the discussion. 

[jebrick]

I would disagree on your definition but here you go.  Players that will make an immediate impact IMHO.

 

Skoronski

Witherspoon

Smith-Njigba

John Michael Schmitz

Bijan Robinson

Josh Downs

Clark Phillips

Felix Anudike-Uzomah

Antonio Johnson

Will McDonald IV

Darnell Wright

Luke Wypler - depending on where he goes

Joe Tippmann

[Epyon]

A few I hadn't seen mentioned yet:

I'd add Darnell Washington-TE to the list of people that will have a big year 1 impact. While TE does often take much more time, it'll be mitigated in his case because his primary utility will be blocking, and the receiving he does do will be entirely based off being a size mismatch rather than route running. I think his overall stat line isn't going to make fantasy owners happy, so it depends a bit how we're grading their contributions.

Jalin Hyatt-WR could be that guy as well, but his fit is going to be more team dependent. He's gonna need at least a WR 1 ahead of him to soak up underneath routes and receiving volume, but I could easily see him being a 10+ TD receiver year one if he does get those other receivers letting him hyper focus on more downfield routes.

Jack Campbell-ILB  I've apparently got him way higher than most draft boards, and would be shocked if he wasn't a stud at the next level. Like a RB though his value is lower via position

Jamhyr Gibbs-RB I've got him much closer to Bijan than most though his style is more Etienne-esque than Bijan, who is more "big Matt Forte". Underutilized in college and thought he'll need to split carries, I think he'd be the best guy on the field for many offenses.

 

[incognito_man]

On that list, the latest guy I view as a bonafide 1st rounder is #27.

There are also 6 guys above that I wouldn't have in my top half. 

So that puts me at 21 counting 3 QBs 

[Scoundrel]

12 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

On that list, the latest guy I view as a bonafide 1st rounder is #27.

There are also 6 guys above that I wouldn't have in my top half. 

So that puts me at 21 counting 3 QBs 

Who are the 6?

[incognito_man]

22 minutes ago, Scoundrel said:

Who are the 6?

I miscounted, was actually 7:

14-18, Cam Smith and Levis.

[Hunter2_1]

Young, Carter, Anderson, Washington, Wright, Paris, Skoronski, Gonzalez, Witherspoon, Banks, Robinson, Mayer.

 

Not too high on this class, but I think those will be good and contribute well day one 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Hunter2_1

[onejayhawk]

21 hours ago, jebrick said:

I would disagree on your definition but here you go.  Players that will make an immediate impact IMHO.

There are exceptions. It can be a player in waiting, eg Mahomes, or a player where the upside is so massive that it is enough even for a high first round player

21 hours ago, jebrick said:

Skoronski

Witherspoon

Smith-Njigba

John Michael Schmitz

Bijan Robinson

Josh Downs

Clark Phillips

Felix Anudike-Uzomah

Antonio Johnson

Will McDonald IV

Darnell Wright

Luke Wypler - depending on where he goes

Joe Tippmann

No Paris or Kancey?

I have Tippmann #2 at his position and 2nd round grade. Is he the next Jason Kelce? Wypler I don't even have day #2. Antonio Johnson over Brian Branch?

[jebrick]

 

1 hour ago, onejayhawk said:

There are exceptions. It can be a player in waiting, eg Mahomes, or a player where the upside is so massive that it is enough even for a high first round player

No Paris or Kancey?

I have Tippmann #2 at his position and 2nd round grade. Is he the next Jason Kelce? Wypler I don't even have day #2. Antonio Johnson over Brian Branch?

immediate impact on day 1 is what you said.  Starting might mean they were drafted into a crappy team and they need to start.  Does not mean they have impact or prove their 1st round credentials.

  I would say who is a full time starter by year 2 or 3 and a pro bowl/ all-pro team.  Josh Allen was not a 1st round talent based on immediate impact on day 1.  It took him a season of work. Troy Polamalu did not start year 1 as he learned the system.  By the end of year 2 would you say he had first round talent?  Ryan Shazier was mediocre for 2.5 season and fans started to think he was a bust but then it clicked.  The other side is Dan Moore, a 3rd round pick by the Steelers who started all year at LT.  There are exactly zero Steeler fans who would say he is a 1st round talent even though it fit your criteria. 

Those are just some examples off the top of my head.  Most of the draft is projecting what the Player can do in the NFL.  I would guess that 90% of the players will need to learn their craft or get stronger.  Some who have the athletic  talent and/or advanced technique will have the quickest impact.  I picked WR who can run good routes.  They will have immediate impact.  i picked Olinemen who are technically sounds and have a lot of starts.  Paris Johnson does not have a lot of experience.  

Wypler will be excellent on a zone running team.  He will fail on a power running team.

I have a hard time with any DB having immediate impact in that for the most part, they do not know their craft or get drafted into a team that does not play to their strengths.  So I would not want to guess wit this class.  Their are some DBs I like but not enough to say immediate impact in year 1.

 

I am often wrong and this is just my opinion.  YMMV

 

[onejayhawk]

9 minutes ago, jebrick said:

 

immediate impact on day 1 is what you said.  Starting might mean they were drafted into a crappy team and they need to start.  Does not mean they have impact or prove their 1st round credentials.

  I would say who is a full time starter by year 2 or 3 and a pro bowl/ all-pro team.  Josh Allen was not a 1st round talent based on immediate impact on day 1.  It took him a season of work. Troy Polamalu did not start year 1 as he learned the system.  By the end of year 2 would you say he had first round talent?  Ryan Shazier was mediocre for 2.5 season and fans started to think he was a bust but then it clicked.  The other side is Dan Moore, a 3rd round pick by the Steelers who started all year at LT.  There are exactly zero Steeler fans who would say he is a 1st round talent even though it fit your criteria. 

Those are just some examples off the top of my head.  Most of the draft is projecting what the Player can do in the NFL.  I would guess that 90% of the players will need to learn their craft or get stronger.  Some who have the athletic  talent and/or advanced technique will have the quickest impact.  I picked WR who can run good routes.  They will have immediate impact.  i picked Olinemen who are technically sounds and have a lot of starts.  Paris Johnson does not have a lot of experience.  

Wypler will be excellent on a zone running team.  He will fail on a power running team.

I have a hard time with any DB having immediate impact in that for the most part, they do not know their craft or get drafted into a team that does not play to their strengths.  So I would not want to guess wit this class.  Their are some DBs I like but not enough to say immediate impact in year 1.

I am often wrong and this is just my opinion.  YMMV

For the elite players in the draft the expectation is that they are able to start, even for a good team. That means that their base is a starting quality player.

You were using centers so consider Creed Humphrey. That level of impact is what I would expect from one of these players, ie not just starting but getting Pro Bowl mention as a rookie.

[jebrick]

44 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

For the elite players in the draft the expectation is that they are able to start, even for a good team. That means that their base is a starting quality player.

You were using centers so consider Creed Humphrey. That level of impact is what I would expect from one of these players, ie not just starting but getting Pro Bowl mention as a rookie.

so by your definition, Troy Polamalu was not a 1st round talent nor was Mahomes but Dan Moore is.  We have way different idea of what makes first round talent.  Look at when people do "redrafts". That is where you can judge 1st round talents.  Show talent in the NFL resulting which, in hindsight, would make them drafted in the 1st round.

[onejayhawk]

2 hours ago, jebrick said:

so by your definition, Troy Polamalu was not a 1st round talent nor was Mahomes but Dan Moore is.  We have way different idea of what makes first round talent.  Look at when people do "redrafts". That is where you can judge 1st round talents.  Show talent in the NFL resulting which, in hindsight, would make them drafted in the 1st round.

Polamalu is exactly the type of player I am talking about, a day #1 starter and was getting Pro Bowl mention as a rookie. Mahomes is one of the exceptions that I mentioned. It's unusual for one of these players to have a quality veteran blocking his path.

Dan Moore definitely not. Who has ever said that he was performing at a Pro Bowl level? If you had said Creed Humphrey, I would have had to agree even though he was taken at the bottom of round #2 with two other Cs in front of him.