Mad or Happy? - Draft Scenarios

[anonymousGM]

If there is a trade back I think either Broderick Jones or Darnell Wright might still be there around #17, but definitely not both. I'd say there is also at least a 50% chance PJJ is gone before #9 to the Raiders or Falcons so if you don't truly believe any of the tackles after him are elite you may prefer a trade down. I get it, get some extra darts. But, you are definitely gambling if you are trading back for a specific player. If PJJ is gone at #9 (which I hope he's not) I'd rather stay at #9 and take Carter or Skoronski maybe even Darnell Wright or Myles Murphy rather than lose the chance of getting what the Bears may think of as an A+ premium talent or Day 1 starter. 

It seems like Darnell Wright has been getting the recent hype and I've seen Broderick Jones mocked to the Pats at pick 14 multiple times so I think the question we ask ourselves if we want to stick to plan A (draft a new LT and move Braxton Jones to RT) and PJJ is gone do you take your second favorite tackle at 9 or trade back. 

Best case scenario is both PJJ and Jalen Carter being available at 9. As weird as it sounds I'd rather have the Bears have the chance to draft Carter and pass on him than to have him go to the Seahawks or another team in the top-8.

[anonymousGM]

8 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Get these guys drafted and signed in March and let the early picks go hang with their QB at his beach house or whatever until mini camp.  

It will help offense and scoring.

They know what scheme they will be playing in a whole month earlier.  You can actually run plays in summer rather than taking baby schematic steps in July/August.

I don't know that it is some ratings bonus for NFL to wait until end of April.

All that would happen is you give more time for people to exam all tape of mid to late rounders and UDFAs and talk about them after draft in summer.

 

 

 

 

With NIL deals we may see fewer Juniors coming out in the future. What would be really crazy is If college players could be drafted before they are eligible to play in the NFL. You could spend a 2nd round pick on Arch Manning and have to wait 3-5 years to see if it turns out to be a good pick

[Sugashane]

40 minutes ago, anonymousGM said:

With NIL deals we may see fewer Juniors coming out in the future. What would be really crazy is If college players could be drafted before they are eligible to play in the NFL. You could spend a 2nd round pick on Arch Manning and have to wait 3-5 years to see if it turns out to be a good pick

The first year that is allwed the Bears trade back 4-5 times to get a ton of mid round picks then draft nothing but ineligible QBs to create a future monopoly. 

I almost wish it would be a possibility. 😆 

[StLunatic88]

1 hour ago, anonymousGM said:

so I think the question we ask ourselves if we want to stick to plan A (draft a new LT and move Braxton Jones to RT) and PJJ is gone do you take your second favorite tackle at 9 or trade back. 

Plan A according to who?

I can’t recall anyone suggesting we are looking to do this. Sure we could, but again, nothing suggests we are actively looking to do this

[anonymousGM]

2 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Plan A according to who?

I can’t recall anyone suggesting we are looking to do this. Sure we could, but again, nothing suggests we are actively looking to do this

Lots of Bears fans want an OT in the first round? are you suggesting that you keep Braxton Jones at LT regardless?

I think the Bears have done enough to the defense in free agency to make protecting Justin Fields by their top priority. If you think Braxton Jones is the answer at LT you can probably find a good RT in the second round to compete with Leatherwood.

OT DL CB in that order. There is some flexibility there to draft the best defensive lineman available 3 technique or defensive end IMO

Plan A

LT - 1st round pick

LG - Teven Jenkins

C - Whitehair/rookie

RG - Nate Davis

RT - Braxton Jones/ Leatherwood

Plan B (Defensive line round 1)

LT - Braxton Jones

LG - Teven Jenkins

C - Whitehair/ rookie

RG - Nate Davis/ Borom

RT - 2nd round pick or trade back/ Leatherwood

Plan C (if Jalen Carter and PJJ are both gone)

LT - Braxton Jones

LG - Skoronski

C- Whitehair / rookie

RG - Nate Davis

RT - Teven Jenkins/ Leatherwood

 

[anonymousGM]

There will be a guy who's there at #9 that will be a good pick! I might go as far as to say that the Bears are more likely to package a deal to move up in the second round than to move back again in the first.

[AZBearsFan]

3 hours ago, anonymousGM said:

There will be a guy who's there at #9 that will be a good pick! I might go as far as to say that the Bears are more likely to package a deal to move up in the second round than to move back again in the first.

I continue to think if the Bears do move back again in R1 that it will be a small move. Going all the way to 9 already has us potentially out of range of the top guys at what everyone assumes we will be looking to draft in R1 (OT/DL). Moving back again more than a few picks probably takes us all the way out. It’s one thing to accrue additional draft capital but another entirely to be so obsessed with doing so that you’re accepting lesser talent to get it. 

[AZBearsFan]

15 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

DraftKings has the following notable draft position over/unders as of this morning:

PJJ 10.5 (over a slight favorite)

Broderick Jones 13.5 (under is the betting favorite)

Jalen Carter 6.5 (even odds both ways)

They show the following for odds for who will be selected in the #9 slot:

 

So their odds are a bit contradictory - they have it listed more likely than not (slightly) that PJJ makes it beyond pick 10, but also that he’s the most likely player to be taken at 9. Some of that is certainly driven by betting volume on either side of either wager as well. Carter at +550 is more reflective of that he’s probably going to go before 9 than that we wouldn’t take him there. If he’s there and we don’t trade down I think it’s probably 50/50 he or an OT.

Broderick Jones at +1600 seems to have a lot of value though… 🤔 

Not even 24 hours later:

 

Can’t imagine the $20 I put down on it at +1600 moved the line lol 

[dll2000]

14 hours ago, anonymousGM said:

With NIL deals we may see fewer Juniors coming out in the future. What would be really crazy is If college players could be drafted before they are eligible to play in the NFL. You could spend a 2nd round pick on Arch Manning and have to wait 3-5 years to see if it turns out to be a good pick

That’s fine. it will help some guys.  

For decades CF ripped players off and denied them right to earn money off their talent.  

I think especially of all the option QBs over years especially through 60s, 70s and 80s at OK, NB and Notre Dame.  

Most famous guys in country under 21 and they made nothing unless it was under the table. 

[dll2000]

1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

That’s fine. it will help some guys.  

For decades CF ripped players off and denied them right to earn money off their talent.  

I think especially of all the option QBs over years especially through 60s, 70s and 80s at OK, NB and Notre Dame.  

Most famous guys in country under 21 and they made nothing unless it was under the table. 

Worse they were made villains if they asked for anything.  

[dll2000]

8 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Not even 24 hours later:

 

Can’t imagine the $20 I put down on it at +1600 moved the line lol 

Paris is best player now, but B. Jones has higher ceiling.

D. Wright is best pure RT, but can’t play LT. 

Peter Skoronski is better than all of them at college level, but has more bust potential than any at OT due to his T-Rex arms.

LOL.  It is not an easy clear cut decision if you are picking at 9.

And because there may be an OT run early it is difficult to know how far you could trade down and still get any of them.  

The you have dilemma of possibility of Carter or Tyree Wilson sitting there at 9 tempting you to pass on OT in first.  

Decisions decisions.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

Would Skoronski be a bust if he ends up at guard that makes the pro bowl a bunch of times? 

Whatever the answer is, would you feel better if you got him at 17 instead of 9?

 

I just don't think Skoronski is going to bust.  I have no clue if he'd be good at OT but he often looks like the best OL available in the draft.  

 

[Docknstein11]

Jalen Carter

Tyree Wilson

Paris Johnson

Broderick Jones

Christian Gonzalez

Devon Witherspoon

Are the guys I would be happy with if we stay at 9. Otherwise trade back. 

Edited April 14, 2023 by Docknstein11

[BeaReylo]

2 hours ago, BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW said:

Would Skoronski be a bust if he ends up at guard that makes the pro bowl a bunch of times? 

Whatever the answer is, would you feel better if you got him at 17 instead of 9?

 

I just don't think Skoronski is going to bust.  I have no clue if he'd be good at OT but he often looks like the best OL available in the draft.  

 

I could live with that.   Brandon Scherff was taken fifth overall; played guard day one and is considered one of the best players taken in his class.  Hail I even think he was the only top five player who resigned with his team.  And given Jenkins injury history it might be good to have a too tier guard?

[HuskieBear]

41 minutes ago, BeaReylo said:

I could live with that.   Brandon Scherff was taken fifth overall; played guard day one and is considered one of the best players taken in his class.  Hail I even think he was the only top five player who resigned with his team.  And given Jenkins injury history it might be good to have a too tier guard?

he was tagged twice then was able to walk.

here's my thing with PS. could be be a good guard? yes more than likely. where is our BIGGEST hole on the OL? tackle - where there are 2 other players in the same range that will FOR SURE play the position. if they are rated similarly, why not take the position where you know the player is going to play? it's not like our options are PS and the 3rd or 4th best T - we could have our pick of the first OL to come off the board. 

with davis and jenkins (i know he has injury concerns) seemingly locked in a G, you would be taking a player we know we have a solid started at to replace him with a rookie, while still leaving the black hole that is RT open. but again, that all depends on if they don't think PS can play tackle