Mad or Happy? - Draft Scenarios

[dll2000]

I am just going to assume everyone wants to trade down.  

 'Trade down' is like the generic candidate for your preferred political party.  Everybody likes him or her because they can imagine the best case scenario and a candidate aligning with all their wishes and views.

But here is question does the following scenario make you happy or mad?   

We will do a scale:   1 - 10.   1 being super mad.  10 being super happy.  5 being neutral.   

You can give whys under your answer for nuance if you like.   

1. Bears draft Will Anderson, Jr at 9?

2.  Bears draft Jalen Carter at 9?

3. Bears draft Tyree Wilson at 9?

4. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - He is first OL taken.

5. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - Jalen Carter is still on board.

6. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - Carter is gone, but Tyree Wilson is still on board.

7. Bears draft Peter Skoronski at 9? - He is first OL taken.

8. Bears draft Devon Witherspoon at 9?

9. Bears draft Christian Gonzalez at 9?

10. Bears draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 9?

11. Bears draft Calijah Kancey at 9?

12. Bears draft Lukas Van Ness at 9?

13. Bears draft Darnell Wright at 9?

14. Bears draft Broderick Jones at 9?

15. Bears draft Bijan Robinson at 9?

16. Bears draft Quentin Johnston at 9?

17. Bears draft anyone not named above?

Edited April 10, 2023 by dll2000
typo

[beardown3231]

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

I am just going to assume everyone wants to trade down.  

 'Trade down' is like the generic candidate for your preferred political party.  Everybody likes him or her because they can imagine the best case scenario and a candidate aligning with all their wishes and views.

But here is question does the following scenario make you happy or mad?   

We will do a scale:   1 - 10.   1 being super mad.  10 being super happy.  5 being neutral.   

You can give whys under your answer for nuance if you like.   

1. Bears draft Will Anderson, Jr at 9? 10- there is no way but this would be awesome

2.  Bears draft Jalen Carter at 9? 8

3. Bears draft Tyree Wilson at 9? 8

4. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - He is first OL taken. 9

5. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - Jalen Carter is still on board. 8

6. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - Carter is gone, but Tyree Wilson is still on board. 9

7. Bears draft Peter Skoronski at 9? - He is first OL taken. 6

8. Bears draft Devon Witherspoon at 9? 3- another corner, blah

9. Bears draft Christian Gonzalez at 9? 3

10. Bears draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 9? 5- I think he's going to be a good pro but they need DL and OL

11. Bears draft Calijah Kancey at 9? 1- that's too soon

12. Bears draft Lukas Van Ness at 9? 4- so raw but he can be great and fills a need

13. Bears draft Darnell Wright at 9? 6- and I love Wright but 9 is too early

14. Bears draft Broderick Jones at 9? 8- I like him but they can get him at 12-15 imo

15. Bears draft Bijan Robinson at 9? 1- this would be a waste of time

16. Bears draft Quentin Johnson at 9? -983: Johnston may not even go top 25 yet alone top 10

17. Bears draft anyone not named above?

 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

1. Bears draft Will Anderson, Jr at 9? 7,  have really come to like him but would dislike leaving OT open 

2.  Bears draft Jalen Carter at 9? 5 The longer the draft process goes on the worse he looks

3. Bears draft Tyree Wilson at 9? 2,  don't like big guys with bad feet 

4. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - He is first OL taken. 10.  Really feel that-barring a trade-leaving round 1 without an OT is a failure.  I really like all of the top 3 OT, including the one that might not even be an OT

5. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - Jalen Carter is still on board. 10. I, said 10, Dan!

6. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - Carter is gone, but Tyree Wilson is still on board. Is it groundhog day or something?

7. Bears draft Peter Skoronski at 9? - He is first OL taken. 8?  I really love the player but smarter people than I say he won't work at OT.  Give him a try and if not you've got a really really good guard?

8. Bears draft Devon Witherspoon at 9? 6.  Great player but I would have felt better about it if the Bears had signed a mid level OT even if it's an overpay. 

9. Bears draft Christian Gonzalez at 9? Same as above. 

10. Bears draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 9? 5 I like him but don't think he's worth 9,  his spot in an offense isn't really what we're missing. 

11. Bears draft Calijah Kancey at 9? 2, very early. 

12. Bears draft Lukas Van Ness at 9?  2.  I really like the player but he's a huge risk and projection and at 9 you'd have to actually show me the time machine to buy this pick. 

13. Bears draft Darnell Wright at 9? 5.  Cool player but his limitations might not match the way Getsy is going to want to move him around when running or when Fields is froggering back there. 

14. Bears draft Broderick Jones at 9? 10.  Just as happy as with PJJ

15. Bears draft Bijan Robinson at 9? 1. Please see my early panicking guide. 

16. Bears draft Quentin Johnson at 9? **** outta here. 

17. Bears draft anyone not named above?  This is frainkly my best path to playing for the Bears, 10 for sure. 

[beardown3231]

(also it's Johnston, not Johnson)

[Ty21]

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

We will do a scale:   1 - 10.   1 being super mad.  10 being super happy.  5 being neutral.   

You can give whys under your answer for nuance if you like.   

1. Bears draft Will Anderson, Jr at 9? 10. Won’t happen but that’s insane value at 9

2.  Bears draft Jalen Carter at 9? 7. His ceiling is unquestionable, he’s in theory the best player in the draft and if he’s taken, the bears have weighed their doubts and decided he’s a good person. Docked 3 points for my own doubts.

3. Bears draft Tyree Wilson at 9? 9. I’ve been all over the place with him. Has various issues like production, reaction speed, but there was a time I was more comfortable taking him over Carter and Wilson  I haven’t evaluated since we traded back though since I assumed we were out of the running 

4. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - He is first OL taken. 9. It’s the right pick to make for Justin. Paris is a well spoken high potential guy. Good work ethic. Docked 2 pts for not having an elite skillset or potential

5. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - Jalen Carter is still on board. Same answer as before 

6. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - Carter is gone, but Tyree Wilson is still on board. Same answer as before 

7. Bears draft Peter Skoronski at 9? - He is first OL taken. 8. If he had longer arms, he’d be a top 5 pick. Hope we could figure out a way to make him effective at tackle and not just have another IOL  

8. Bears draft Devon Witherspoon at 9? 4, but it would go higher after watching him play. Great physical corner with fight. But with all our needs I’d be annoyed at taking a corner there even if it was the best choice 

9. Bears draft Christian Gonzalez at 9? 4 again. Very athletic corner I feel has the higher potential but still, I want the pick to be OT or DL 

10. Bears draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 9? 6? There’s still concerns about him as a player, where he projects in an offense, and needs beyond him. If you have an all star cast at WR but Jim McMahon as qb since your line sucks so bad, what good is it?

11. Bears draft Calijah Kancey at 9? 4. It’s just too much of a reach and a desperation move in which a team thinks they’re getting Donald (and higher than Donald got drafted). Kancey could be decent but his ceiling isn’t the sky. 

12. Bears draft Lukas Van Ness at 9? 6. Again a possible reach but I like him for what I’ve seen 

13. Bears draft Darnell Wright at 9? 8. I don’t think any OT in the top 4 is leaps and bounds better than the last and some will figure into our scheme better 

14. Bears draft Broderick Jones at 9? 9. I’m okay with any of the top 4 here really. But Brod and Paris would be my favorite  

15. Bears draft Bijan Robinson at 9? 8 lol. He could very well be the 2nd best bears rb at the end of his career and he’s so damn exciting I won’t lie and say I wouldn’t be excited despite the lack of necessity and cost to other positions. He’s potentially the best player in the draft in a time where rbs don’t matter anymore  

16. Bears draft Quentin Johnston at 9? 2. Yeah might hate this the most because I have him as a bust

17. Bears draft anyone not named above? 1. I can’t think of anyone else that could go that would be a savvy move

Edited to rescore

Edited April 10, 2023 by Ty21

[Ty21]

4 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

(also it's Johnston, not Johnson)

I edited his quote when I did mine lol

[dll2000]

6 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

(also it's Johnston, not Johnson)

Fixed

[dll2000]

I predict - unhappy.  

 

Edited April 10, 2023 by dll2000

[Bowler1215]

1. Bears draft Will Anderson, Jr at 9?  10 is too low.  He's the guy I was hoping we'd get at 1. 

2.  Bears draft Jalen Carter at 9? 2 with all his off the field issues. 

3. Bears draft Tyree Wilson at 9? 6 not a bad pick, but I won't be jumping for joy

4. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - He is first OL taken.   10 currently one guy I'm hoping we'd get

5. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - Jalen Carter is still on board.  10

6. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - Carter is gone, but Tyree Wilson is still on board.   10

7. Bears draft Peter Skoronski at 9? - He is first OL taken.  5, unless he can play RT then 7   To my understanding, he's better suited at guard

8. Bears draft Devon Witherspoon at 9?  3 O-line and D-line much bigger needs.  Plus our secondary is one of our biggest strengths  Depth later, not in round 1

9. Bears draft Christian Gonzalez at 9? 3 see above

10. Bears draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 9?  5 IMO WR bigger need than secondary.  Mooney and Claypool in contract years.  Plus, not a deep WR class. 

11. Bears draft Calijah Kancey at 9?  5 Is he really Aaron Donald like?  

12. Bears draft Lukas Van Ness at 9?  9 Another guy I'm hoping for. 

13. Bears draft Darnell Wright at 9?  7 fills a big need

14. Bears draft Broderick Jones at 9? 8 3rd or 4th on my personal big board as of now.

15. Bears draft Bijan Robinson at 9?  5 I wouldn't hate it, but I'd hate passing on one of the top O-line and D-line/edge rushers

16. Bears draft Quentin Johnston at 9?  3 I'd rather have JSN.  Plus isn't drops an issue with him?

17. Bears draft anyone not named above?  Nolan Smith wouldn't be a bad pick.  A surprise pick in round 1 for us: TE Dalton Kincaid  Pairing him with Kmet could be dangerous for opponents for a few years. 

[Epyon]

1. Bears draft Will Anderson, Jr at 9?

My concern would actually be questions about why he fell that far, and what our team is apparently missing that everyone else knows. I'm fully expecting him to go top 3.
5/10 because I think we're missing something.... 10/10 for where I have him currently ranked

2.  Bears draft Jalen Carter at 9?

If the team is confident his issues won't be a problem, I'm all for it. Great value.

8/10

3. Bears draft Tyree Wilson at 9?

I'm significantly less thrilled than with Carter or Anderson. Wilson is a boom or bust guy, and a defensive player. There's obviously reason for optimism, and if he hits, he has a VERY high ceiling.... but I'd rather draft offensively, and safer.

7/10

4. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - He is first OL taken.

Don't overthink it. Home run pick

10/10

5. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - Jalen Carter is still on board.

100% happy with it.

10/10

6. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - Carter is gone, but Tyree Wilson is still on board.

I'd outright prefer PJJ to Wilson

10/10

7. Bears draft Peter Skoronski at 9? - He is first OL taken.

Dislike it. Skoronski is a guard, he isn't all pro level, and there are 4 OT I'd take above a guard.

6/10

8. Bears draft Devon Witherspoon at 9?

Happy with it, Witherspoon is a beast of a corner.

9/10

9. Bears draft Christian Gonzalez at 9?

I get it based on his Measurables, but I have Witherspoon higher.
7/10

10. Bears draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 9?

Happy to give Fields more weapons.

10/10

11. Bears draft Calijah Kancey at 9?

Dude scares me as a prospect. Gut reaction is upset, but optimistic for his potential.

6/10

12. Bears draft Lukas Van Ness at 9?

Too early for LVN. He's a late 1st prospect.

4/10

13. Bears draft Darnell Wright at 9?

Feels a touch rich for a RT, but I have him graded close enough to Broderick and PJJ to be fine with it. Ideally we get him on a small trade down

9/10

14. Bears draft Broderick Jones at 9?

Same answer I had for PJJ, 100% happy with it, guy has the tools.

10/10

15. Bears draft Bijan Robinson at 9?

I'd probably be one of the like 15 bears fans across the city happy we did that. Guy is a rich man's Matt Forte, and Matt Forte was a stud.Very real chance he's the best overall player of the entire draft class.  I'd also take an enormous amount of satisfaction drinking up all the tears from haters whining about the pick, who all end up eventually buying his jersey after 2 years of showing what a real running back looks like again. People are too used to cheering for mediocre players/talent, they've forgotten what a good player looks like.

10/10

16. Bears draft Quentin Johnston at 9?

This is probably the one pick out of this entire list where I'd be seriously upset. Dude screams bust to me.... He isn't that athletic, and despite his size, he plays small.

0/10

17. Bears draft anyone not named above?

Jahmyr Gibbs-RB and Darnell Washington-TE are two guys I think will be special players in this league.... and I'd gamble on Jalin Hyatt-WR's upside as well. That being said, all three of those guys should be had on trade downs, rather than picked at 9. I'd be one of the few happy we got the player, but still pissed we took them at 9 vs trading down (and in all 3 cases, trading down to at least the mid 20s or later and getting a big haul).

6/10 is the best grade I can give if they're taken at 9. On substantial trade downs they're all 10/10

Edited April 11, 2023 by Epyon

[Ty21]

1 hour ago, Bowler1215 said:

Plus, not a deep WR class.

Disagree

[AZBearsFan]

3 hours ago, Ty21 said:

Disagree

I’m with you. There may not be a lot of star WRs in this draft but I think there’ll be a half dozen or more that are solid WR2 for several years when it’s all said and done. 

[dll2000]

My (current) thoughts are:

1) Will Anderson.   His floor is enough you easily take him at 9.  I still think he has a limited ceiling and some bust potential.  But I am willing to go with consensus and crowd on this one.   As @Epyon pointed out, he is unlikely to fall to 9 without reason.   Off field incident or injury.  But you never know.   

Could be 4 QBs, plus Tyree, Carter, Top CB, Top OT - boom Anderson all of sudden is unexpectedly sitting there at 9.

If this did happen and he could generate trade demand I absolutely listen because I am not 100% sold on his greatness.  Especially if it picks up a 2024 1 or a high 2023 2.

2) Jalen Carter.   He is uber talented.  He is more talented than even Quinnen Williams in my opinion.  But even without off field stuff and the bad pro day, I have questions about his effort on tape.   He clearly doesn't go 100% on several reps.    I am not much swayed by the bad driving incident.   I am very concerned about poor work ethic and a pervasive pattern (if there is one) of bad decision making.

As a guy on a computer it is too hard to make this call.   I would need to talk to his college coaches privately about him off record, but I can't.   Poles can.

I am going to say I take him based on little I know and his incredible talent.  

3) Tyree Wilson.  Another one with insufficient info for an armchair GM.  I take him based on tape and forward potential at 9 (depending on a viable strategy and executable plan to procure a good OT).   I think his ceiling is higher than Anderson's, but his floor is lower.    I need access to his medicals and a staff of doctors to make a decision.   Foot injuries really scare me when it comes to large men.   I don't like that he is still rehabbing at this point in time.   Seems like he could be set back for his rookie year.

Still this guy is physically a prototype 4-3 edge.   Hard to pass on him.

4) Paris Johnson (also going to discuss Darnell Wright).   I am not in love with Paris Johnson.  In fact, I would have to watch more, but I think I may like Darnell Wright better as a pure RT than I like Paris Johnson as a LT or RT.   But here is my dilemma.   We may not be picking in top 10 again for a long time.    LTs are really, really hard to find.   Paris does have ability to be a viable LT.   Wright is too big.    I know JJ Watt and Mack play on right.  But teams are right handed.  So TE and back help are more likely to be toward right side.    Even if TE is aligned right and not blocking that alignment helps the RT and affects the defensive left side Edge.   The LT needs to be able to play more in space than the RT more often.  Hence why you can get away with bigger guys on right side.  It can be a bonus in run game as well.

You say we have a good LT in Braxton.  I say we have a good run blocker and a below average pass blocker with potential to be a good pass blocker in Braxton.  Braxton struggled with anchor and power on pass blocking in 2022.   He is still a projection at this time when it comes to pass blocking.  I liked his run blocking.  

I think Braxton gives you position versatility to play right or be okay on left and possibly good on left in future.   Paris gives you same thing, but has more talent than Braxton.   Which is why Paris is a first round pick and Braxton a mid rounder.    

So I draft Paris and move Braxton to RT.  This going to sound counter intuitive, but I think drafting Darnell Wright actually makes the whole Oline better than drafting Paris - because the OL becomes much more physically imposing as a unit.   Assuming Braxton takes a step forward in improvement at pass blocking at LT.  

But given the rarity of LTs, I think the greater value is in drafting Paris over Wright and the right move.   Other consideration is very large men are greater injury risk IMO. 

Also I think Poles doesn't like over sized OL.  I like them as long as they can move, it sucks going against giants.  They wear on you throughout a game.   But, I think Poles wants smaller more nimble OL.   

Interesting that Kiper just mocked Wright to us at 9.   He does his later April mocks off inside information and his NFL sources.  So someone told him something.  Who knows what that was and if it is true.   

... done for now.  Back to work.  

 

[TankWilliams]

On 4/10/2023 at 10:55 AM, dll2000 said:

We will do a scale:   1 - 10.   1 being super mad.  10 being super happy.  5 being neutral.   

You can give whys under your answer for nuance if you like.   

1. Bears draft Will Anderson, Jr at 9? 10

2.  Bears draft Jalen Carter at 9? 4 - I have strong bust vibes from him, the off the field issues and the lack of effort and preparation for his pro day really make me question his passion for the game and whether or not he will be a long term impact guy.  Obviously the talent is there, but don't trust him.

3. Bears draft Tyree Wilson at 9? 8.5, I have a couple questions about him but would be pretty thrilled overall to have him there at 9 in Ebeflus' scheme.

4. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - He is first OL taken. - 9

5. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - Jalen Carter is still on board. - 9

6. Bears draft Paris Johnson at 9? - Carter is gone, but Tyree Wilson is still on board. 7.5 

7. Bears draft Peter Skoronski at 9? - He is first OL taken. - 5.  He'll be a great guard or center in the NFL, but if they try to throw him in at RT I think it'll fail.  

8. Bears draft Devon Witherspoon at 9? 5

9. Bears draft Christian Gonzalez at 9? 5

10. Bears draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 9? 5 - I like him but this would be pretty dang early, and I don't think we need to to be splurging on WRs with as many gaps as the team has now, WR group is now a positional strength compared to other areas.

11. Bears draft Calijah Kancey at 9? 5.5

12. Bears draft Lukas Van Ness at 9? 7

13. Bears draft Darnell Wright at 9? 6

14. Bears draft Broderick Jones at 9? 7

15. Bears draft Bijan Robinson at 9? 5.5 - I like him, hate his positional value

16. Bears draft Quentin Johnston at 9? 1 - probably the only player I'd want less than Carter besides a QB.

17. Bears draft anyone not named above? - Would be happy with Myles Murphy as well, probably a 6.5 or 7 out of 10.

 

Edited April 11, 2023 by TankWilliams

[dll2000]