2018 Free Agency targets

[IronMike84]

On 2/6/2018 at 2:46 PM, Superman(DH23) said:

There was so much wrong in oakland this past year its hard to place blame. 

Hypertension, asthma, high housing costs, prostitution... definitely a lot going wrong in Oakland.

[AZBearsFan]

21 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I have reservations about Landry and quite frankly I have doubts that Pace can land him based on previous players that have turned us down.

But Landry means you don’t have to

1. Hope a couple of tier 2 free agents can step up into bigger roles than they have on previous teams

2. Hope a draft Pick is ready to contribute early as a rookie.

 

You would have someone capable of handling a lot of targets and who can consistently produce.

For the role Landry is asked to play I think you could find a few dozen or more guys who could produce as well or better with 160 targets a year. Hell Albert Wilson’s 2017 stats extrapolated over 160 targets blow Landry’s out of the water, and you know what my thoughts are on him. They play the same role, and Wilson has far more speed, better production per target (by a lot) 35% of the price tag. 

Here’s the lens through which I am viewing Landry: if you give any of Josh Bellamy, Kendall Wright or Dontrelle Inman 160 targets at their 2017 rate of production in the Dowell frickin Loggains offense EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM puts up better numbers than Landry. Bellamy is probably gonna be out of the league next year, and the other two can probably both be had for about $6M combined with basically nothing guaranteed. 

[WindyCity]

12 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

For the role Landry is asked to play I think you could find a few dozen or more guys who could produce as well or better with 160 targets a year. Hell Albert Wilson’s 2017 stats extrapolated over 160 targets blow Landry’s out of the water, and you know what my thoughts are on him. They play the same role, and Wilson has far more speed, better production per target (by a lot) 35% of the price tag. 

Here’s the lens through which I am viewing Landry: if you give any of Josh Bellamy, Kendall Wright or Dontrelle Inman 160 targets at their 2017 rate of production in the Dowell frickin Loggains offense EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM puts up better numbers than Landry. Bellamy is probably gonna be out of the league next year, and the other two can probably both be had for about $6M combined with basically nothing guaranteed. 

I was all over the 160 targets and the 8.8 YPC, but that is an oversimplification. Cutler was terrible and the offense was broken.

I am also guilty of extrapolating too much. The sample sizes are way to different. Landry had 2.5x the targets of Wilson and there really is no a good way to say what he would have done with that many targets. We have no idea what Wilson will do with 100+ targets because he has never been close, that is the concern.

He would either be catching shorter passes, like Landry, or drawing a boat load of defensive attention.

[WindyCity]

Who would you rather gives 100 targets to?

Jarvis Landry

or

Kendall Wright

 

My guess is regardless of his inefficient 2017 season we would take Landry.

[Sugashane]

13 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I was all over the 160 targets and the 8.8 YPC, but that is an oversimplification. Cutler was terrible and the offense was broken.

I am also guilty of extrapolating too much. The sample sizes are way to different. Landry had 2.5x the targets of Wilson and there really is no a good way to say what he would have done with that many targets. We have no idea what Wilson will do with 100+ targets because he has never been close, that is the concern.

He would either be catching shorter passes, like Landry, or drawing a boat load of defensive attention.

To add to that Miami had no rushing game, or as we relied on Howard and Cohen in the backfield. With all the attention given the Howard none of our receivers were constantly keyed on by defensive coordinators. But Miami's offense ran through Landry he was an extension of the running game and the key cog in generating first downs. Coordinators new the offense ran through him and he still was able to produce. 

[WindyCity]

I just don’t want to be watching an overwhelmed WR core with an extra 6 million in cap space.

The cap space is not a concern, but the on field support of Trubisky is a huge concern.

[WindyCity]

I am not going to lose my mind if the Bears don’t grab Landry.

But I think you have to explore it.

It is the closest thing we can get to guarabteed production at the WR spot. Everyone else we are projecting a lot and sometimes (Bears 2017 FAs) you miss on the projection.

[AZBearsFan]

55 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Who would you rather gives 100 targets to?

Jarvis Landry

or

Kendall Wright

 

My guess is regardless of his inefficient 2017 season we would take Landry.

That’s not a balanced equation - for the $ Landry would cost you’re also probably spending another $8-10M on a second WR who is at least reasonably established. Historically 100 targets of either gives you pretty comparable production. If I’m getting 650-750 yards out of those 100 targets no matter what I’d much rather do so having spent the extra $8-10M on another WR or a good or great player at pretty much any other position. $13M gets you Wright at comparable output plus Norwell, or the major bulk of a Fuller extension, or pretty much any other WR in FA besides Robinson or Landry. 

[pigsooie5]

15 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

For the role Landry is asked to play I think you could find a few dozen or more guys who could produce as well or better with 160 targets a year. Hell Albert Wilson’s 2017 stats extrapolated over 160 targets blow Landry’s out of the water, and you know what my thoughts are on him. They play the same role, and Wilson has far more speed, better production per target (by a lot) 35% of the price tag. 

Here’s the lens through which I am viewing Landry: if you give any of Josh Bellamy, Kendall Wright or Dontrelle Inman 160 targets at their 2017 rate of production in the Dowell frickin Loggains offense EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM puts up better numbers than Landry. Bellamy is probably gonna be out of the league next year, and the other two can probably both be had for about $6M combined with basically nothing guaranteed. 

This an extremely skewed argument AZ. If we extrapolated Johnny Holtons stats over 160 targets, he'd break both Jerry Rice and Calvin Johnson all time receiving records. Do you see what I mean? 

Did you ever sit and consider that maybe part of the reason his league average was low this season is because he was constantly force fed balls, in an extremely predictable offense, with little to no talent help around him? I get chills thinking what that guy could do in an innovative offense with an up and coming QB. 

He was 7th in the NFL in YAC last season, this rhetoric that Joshua Bellamy and Mitch Trubisky are better WRs than Jarvis Landry is quite frankly getting old. 

[WindyCity]

3 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

That’s not a balanced equation - for the $ Landry would cost you’re also probably spending another $8-10M on a second WR who is at least reasonably established. Historically 100 targets of either gives you pretty comparable production. If I’m getting 650-750 yards out of those 100 targets no matter what I’d much rather do so having spent the extra $8-10M on another WR or a good or great player at pretty much any other position. $13M gets you Wright at comparable output plus Norwell, or the major bulk of a Fuller extension, or pretty much any other WR in FA besides Robinson or Landry. 

You are too concerned with money. We have more than enough.

There is no one else to spend the money on.

Norwell is going to NYG and we are not signing anyone worth a damn at OLB. We would be adding a couple #2 WRs, or we hope they are, and sitting on cash.

[WindyCity]

Part of what you are paying for with Landry is his consistency. Which I get it is not sexy at all.

He is going to play 16 games, get 1000 yards and at an above average level consistently catch the ball.

Everyone is right, there is not a lot of flash to him game. But the Bears need someone consistently open and who can produce to help develop Mitch.

[WindyCity]

I think there are only a few difference makers that are going to hit free agency. Consistent high level performers or Pro Bowlers

Landry

Norwell

T Johnson

M Butler, this year and SuperBowl aside

 

After that I think there are nice players that are going to get over paid.

We should explore landing 1 of them.

 

[pigsooie5]

I think this is just one of those situations where we'll agree to disagree and hope for the best. There seems to be a group very PRO Jarvis Landry and a group of very CON Jarvis Landry. I think we can all agree though, regardless of opinion, that Landry will certainly be in play a month from now.

[AZBearsFan]

30 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

You are too concerned with money. We have more than enough.

There is no one else to spend the money on.

Norwell is going to NYG and we are not signing anyone worth a damn at OLB. We would be adding a couple #2 WRs, or we hope they are, and sitting on cash.

I’m concerned about building the best team. Landry getting 100 targets instead of 160 and he’s not a 1000 yard WR or anything close to it, and a 5/65 with $30M contract may not be limiting on 2018 but it certainly could be limiting in future years where we don’t have 80M in cap space. If we are paying top FA money it only makes sense to do so for a top FA. Landry is only a top FA WR by default. If he was a top player MIA would find a way to keep him and he would never get to FA. 

I used Norwell as an example. The cost difference between Wright and Landry is Eddie Goldman’s extension. It’s Whitehair’s extension next year. It’s Malcolm Butler on top of Fuller. It’s Jimmy Graham. It’s one of the good FA centers available this year. It’s the bulk of Ezekiel Ansah. It’s Meredith’s next contract midseason if he shows to be what he was in 2016 or more in Nagy’s offense. Free agency spending is about all of the years of the contract, not just 2018. At some point we will need to be able to pay our own developed players too, and $13M on a guy who with 7 targets a week instead of 10 is about a 750-yard limited route tree player is just a bad investment.

Overpay when you have the funds for the right player and I’m fine with it - for Tru Johnson or Allen Robinson or Norwell, or a QB pre-Trubisky. Landry isn’t near that level. Landry is a guy who needs 142 targets a season to get 1009 yards on average through 4 years. If he got normal levels of targets, which is what he would probably get here, then his history suggests he’s gonna give you about 70 catches and 715 yards. He’s the biggest piece of fool’s gold in FA this year, and it’s not close. 

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, pigsooie5 said:

This an extremely skewed argument AZ. If we extrapolated Johnny Holtons stats over 160 targets, he'd break both Jerry Rice and Calvin Johnson all time receiving records. Do you see what I mean? 

Did you ever sit and consider that maybe part of the reason his league average was low this season is because he was constantly force fed balls, in an extremely predictable offense, with little to no talent help around him? I get chills thinking what that guy could do in an innovative offense with an up and coming QB. 

He was 7th in the NFL in YAC last season, this rhetoric that Joshua Bellamy and Mitch Trubisky are better WRs than Jarvis Landry is quite frankly getting old. 

I’m obviously not saying that Bellamy is a comparable player. He’s awful. I’m making a point about Landry’s production being a product of volume over elite ability. Devante Parker and Kenny Stills are both solid NFL players and better than a lot of other teams have outside of their “top” WR. Also, the first half of the season they had Ajayi at RB who is above average. Gase is an innovative offensive mind.

Were his numbers skewed down somewhat this year because of the QB position? Sure, maybe. Probably even. But in 4 years the outlier season is 2016, not 2017. Have you considered that the reason he is near the league leaders in RAC every year is because the vast majority of his catches are within 5 yards of the LOS? It’s really the only explanation since he still averages just 10.1 ypc over 400 catches. You know who else is on that RAC list every year? Lots of running backs, and other guys who run mostly 5 yard routes. Guys like Albert Wilson and Duke Johnson.

I don’t HATE Jarvis Landry. I just don’t think he’s a star or a player for whom we should be pining. He’s a nice slot player but that’s all he is IMO. I don’t think his skill set is unique or elite but his price tag almost certainly will be.