refundmytickets Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, anonymousGM said: If you add up the 5th year option plus the franchise tag for Fields for following season (technically) he's on a 2 year 38 million dollar deal. Tagging him means you're paying him 35M in pure salary. No cap savings from pro-rating bonus money. Keep in mind Daniel Jones' extension was for 40M AAV. I doubt Fields is giving the Bears any discounts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anonymousGM Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12 minutes ago, refundmytickets said: Tagging him means you're paying him 35M in pure salary. No cap savings from pro-rating bonus money. Keep in mind Daniel Jones' extension was for 40M AAV. I doubt Fields is giving the Bears any discounts. Exactly! I'm just trying to illustrate that the rent on Justin Fields is due!!! I have no doubts that Fields will put up good numbers next season with MHJ and DJ. He will get then need to be paid 50M AAV factoring in the franchise/transition tag I would much rather be having this discussion 5 years from now about a QB after 3 winning season under a rookie deal not today having this conversation about Justin Fields after 3 losing ones. The top teams that win super bowls do it with a QB on a rookie deal or veteran QB's on a third deal and thats pretty difficult to disprove. If Fields want to accept that he's not going to put the team on his back by himself to win games and accept a team friendly deal next year then there are no problems and its full steam ahead. I just don't think that will happen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 9 hours ago, anonymousGM said: Age isn't the issue. I've said it once and ill say it again. Its strictly about the contract situation. Is Justin Fields good enough to justify a 25+ million dollar cap hit over what Caleb Williams would get as a replacement for the next 5 years? With that money you could sign a premium free agent or continue extending the young talent you have. Am I saying that I'm not rooting for a guy to have success because we'll have to pay him more... no... If the Bears trade out of the #1 pick i'll stand up and clap for Justin Fields as our QB, he deserves it! I simply like trying to predict what the Bears will do and from what we've seen from Poles he wants to build long-term success and won't sacrifice anything for the short-term if it effects the teams future too much I said it the other day (not in response to one of your posts) - the list of teams significantly limited in signing key players either in FA or to extensions because their QB has a big contract is very, very small. Look at the contracts of Herbert and Hurts, both signed before the 2023 season. Herbert doesn’t have a cap hit above $40M until 2026. Hurts until 2027 (due to dead years at the end). Say we play out year 4 of Fields’ deal in 2024 after picking up his 5YO and he’s a stud and gets a Herbert deal next offseason. Under similar structure, by the time he costs $40M+ per year the salary cap will have gone up another $30-50M from where it is now and that number becomes FAR more manageable. And, by then, if Fields is still a stud, we can extend from there and reduce the 2027-28 cap numbers further at that point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JibjeResearch Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 It's best to trade down this year and build the team. The Bears can always reset at QB in 2025 even if JF1 is good... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 53 minutes ago, JibjeResearch said: It's best to trade down this year and build the team. The Bears can always reset at QB in 2025 even if JF1 is good... What would that look like? On 1/12/2024 at 10:26 AM, refundmytickets said: Tagging him means you're paying him 35M in pure salary. No cap savings from pro-rating bonus money. Keep in mind Daniel Jones' extension was for 40M AAV. I doubt Fields is giving the Bears any discounts. This is a major factor in my thinking Bears are drafting a QB at 1. Not sure who that is, but there are enough really good candidates that I am fairly certain it will happen. I would say I am better than 90% sure. Are their gambling lines on this? Bears keeping Fields versus drafting QB? I would bet lines/odds are strongly in favor of drafting a qb and strongly against keeping Fields. If I gambled I know where I would be placing my bet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 53 minutes ago, dll2000 said: I would say I am better than 90% sure I don’t know how you can possibly have this opinion right now 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TankWilliams Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I don't think I'd say 90% but I'd definitely wager that is their move. If i could put money on a number, I'd probably land at 75%, personally. The only saving grace for Justin I think is the respect in the locker room. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epyon Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 hours ago, JibjeResearch said: The Bears can always reset at QB in 2025 even if JF1 is good... This of course implies that there's a QB in 25 worth drafting, or rated anywhere in the same stratosphere as the top guys this year. Nothing I've heard about the 25 class leads me to believe that.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 11 minutes ago, Epyon said: This of course implies that there's a QB in 25 worth drafting, or rated anywhere in the same stratosphere as the top guys this year. Nothing I've heard about the 25 class leads me to believe that.... Always seems like there is someone who comes out of nowhere but the top guys (Sanders and Ewers) definitely don't entice me too much. Maybe they'll pop for me more this upcoming season, who knows? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 56 minutes ago, TankWilliams said: I don't think I'd say 90% but I'd definitely wager that is their move. If i could put money on a number, I'd probably land at 75%, personally. The only saving grace for Justin I think is the respect in the locker room. That’s still insanely high, I honestly doubt they even know what they will be doing at this point. So you thinking you know is… something I think fans don’t consider leadership nearly enough. Not to mention that’s not the “only thing” going for Justin. His immense potential hasnt gone anywhere. And it’s not like he has shown nothing up to this point (like other QBs in that draft). I can’t fathom thinking that this is a sure thing either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 52 minutes ago, Epyon said: This of course implies that there's a QB in 25 worth drafting, or rated anywhere in the same stratosphere as the top guys this year. Nothing I've heard about the 25 class leads me to believe that.... Both Sanders and Ewers would likely be 1st round picks this year. They were for sure talked about like that for most of this season. And pretending like they can’t take another step forward and be exactly or nearly the same level as every other Drafts Top QBs (yes also including this years) is pretty ignorant to the process of QBs in the draft. Not to mention, the Draft is t the only way to get a QB 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said: That’s still insanely high, I honestly doubt they even know what they will be doing at this point. This is why I don't even want to really break down what could happen either way. Poles is likely still reviewing Fields' film, he is likely going to want the new OC to do a deep dive with the notations they have (calls made, adjustments they believe were made, what was done well/poorly in their opinion, etc) and then they will see where to go from there. Then they will likely do independent reviews/scouting on the QBs and then group ones to try and see if there are patterns for/against each of them. This is a long and thorough process that is just in its infancy. Plus at this point no one has really reached out to try and figure out a price. Those within Halas Hall are created/fuel demand so they can get a similar haul to what was ripped from CAR. I firmly believe the report that WAS wanted to get Williams was generated inside of Halas Hall, why would WAS come out and weaken their own hand? I mean stupidity happens all the time but at that level you would think there would be some intelligence about it. If they can generate enough desperation in one owner/GM (and it only takes one to overpay) then Fields is staying and the pick is gone, but a haul is had. If they review and unanimously love Williams or Maye then I don't think they gamble and risk losing out, they just take them at 1.1. Maybe if they really want Maye and WAS wants Williams they can trade back one and get something but it would be a deal dependent on Maye being available and WAS taking Williams, for example. Moore and 1.1 were traded on March 10th, I don't see why this would happen much, if any, faster. Unless Poles gets to absolutely ream another team then he surely wants to review the prospects and try to create as much desire for 1.1 as possible for the top teams. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TankWilliams Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said: That’s still insanely high, I honestly doubt they even know what they will be doing at this point. So you thinking you know is… something I think fans don’t consider leadership nearly enough. Not to mention that’s not the “only thing” going for Justin. His immense potential hasnt gone anywhere. And it’s not like he has shown nothing up to this point (like other QBs in that draft). I can’t fathom thinking that this is a sure thing either way. I'm not saying they know or that there is no chance it happens, I'm just wagering on their final conclusion. I don't know anything, just my impressions from what I saw of his play, what is available in the draft, and the impressions I got from their press conference and comments. Lots of you keep talking about Fields immense potential and act as if it's not being weighed directly against the draft talent. Clearly he has less talent potential than Caleb Williams. So when I say "only thing" clearly I'm not saying he has nothing else at all, I'm saying that's a known quantity that we don't know we could get from other options. Also, who is saying this is a sure thing? Obviously no one knows for sure, but we are on a GD football forum, of course we are going to speculate or say what we hope. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 14 minutes ago, TankWilliams said: Clearly he has less talent potential than Caleb Williams. I don’t think that’s true at all. We can debate likelihood to hit that potential, but IMO if Fields develops into even an above average passer he will likely be one of the best QBs in the league. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TankWilliams Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 (edited) 5 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: I don’t think that’s true at all. We can debate likelihood to hit that potential, but IMO if Fields develops into even an above average passer he will likely be one of the best QBs in the league. Fields can be a great NFL QB, yes, thats why he was taken #11 overall. But I don't think its even slightly controversial at this point to say Caleb's potential ceiling is higher than Fields. This is where I think homerism comes into play. Its possible Caleb Williams ends up being a bust, but he's not so widely regarded as a #1 overall, borderline generational talent for no reason. Edited January 14 by TankWilliams 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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