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Josh Allen without Brian Daboll


notthatbluestuff

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9 hours ago, BillsGuy82 said:

hat's your justification on us not moving the ball in second half on the drives where he didn't throw an INT?  

Bills had 5 drives in the second half.

3 ended in turnovers by Allen.

One ended on a punt after going 3 and out (no sacks on the drive)

1st down: Bills rushed for 4 yards,

2nd down: Allen incomplete over the middle

3rd down: 4 yard completion to James Cook.

Final drive was a game-tying field goal. 

So two drives in the second half where Allen didn’t turn it over. One drive they moved the ball and got a field goal. The other was a 3 and out. Not sure where the notion that we didn’t move the ball in the second half came from. 

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We all think of Allen as a turnover machine - and he is. But I was curious just how much of a turnover machine he REALLY is:
 

2022
Note: Just picked 2022 bc it was Allens worst year of last 3 and he's going against quality years by mahomes, hurts, burrow, goff, etc so it feels like we are really steelmanning the opposing case and I really don't want to do this again for multiple stretches unless someone asks lol
*-plays = Pass Attempts + Rush Attempts (to try to avoid handoffs skewing stats)


Josh Allen | 691plays 5,045totYards 42totTD 19turnovers ... 36 plays per turnover ... 266 yards per turnover ... 2.2 td per turnover

Dak Prescott | 439plays 3,042totYards 24totTD 16turnovers ... 27 plays per turnover ... 190 yards per turnover ... 1.5 td per turnover
Patrick Mahomes | 709plays 5,608totYards 45totTD 12turnovers ... 59 plays per turnover ... 467 yards per turnover ... 3.8 td per turnover
Joe Burrow | 681plays 4,732totYards 40totTD 15turnovers ... 45 plays per turnover ... 315 yards per turnover ... 2.7 td per turnover
Trevor Lawrence | 646plays 4,404totYards 30totTD 17turnovers ... 38 plays per turnover ... 259 yards per turnover ... 1.8 td per turnover
Jalen Hurts | 625plays 4,461totYards 35totTD 8turnovers ... 78 plays per turnover ... 558 yards per turnover ... 4.4 td per turnover
Jared Goff | 616plays 4,511totYards 29totTD 11turnovers ... 56 plays per turnover ... 410 yards per turnover ... 2.6 td per turnover
Lamar Jackson | 438plays 3,006totYards 20totTD 9turnovers ... 49 plays per turnover ... 334 yards per turnover ... 2.2 td per turnover
Kirk Cousins | 674plays 4,644totYards 31totTD 17turnovers ...  40 plays per turnover ... 273 yards per turnover ... 1.8 td per turnover
Justin Herbert | 753plays 4,886totYards 25totTD 13turnovers ... 58 plays per turnover ... 376 yards per turnover ... 1.9 td per turnover
Derek Carr | 526plays 3,624totYards 24totTD 14turnovers ...38 plays per turnover ... 259 yards per turnover ... 1.7 td per turnover
Tua Tagovailoa | 423plays 3,618totYards 25totTD 9turnovers ... 47 plays per turnover ... 402 yards per turnover ... 2.7 td per turnover
 

Bigger numbers are better here.

I didn't bother comparing to worse because that's not the company Allen wants to be in.

----------------------

Final Thoughts - I came into this thinking that Allen would look better when we compare his turnovers to his workload or production, but I was frankly wrong. Obviously, last year was his worst year and others in the comparison had career years, but it's clearly true - Allen is simply turning the ball over too much. His TD:TO isn't the worst, but by every other metric, he's not giving you that top 5 production you might think by just looking at the raw numbers and excusing some turnovers. 

Edited by Soggust
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10 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

Mixon has only had 1 1000 yard season since Burrow entered the league. And he had 292 carries that year. Any NFL RB behind any NFL OL is going to get 1000 yards on 292 carries. Singletary got over 800 yards last year on 115 less carries. If you genuinely don't think Burrow has had bad OLs through most of his career, there's not much to really discuss here. That's been the most known issue with Cincy's roster the past few years.

And I'm sorry, but you're not going to convince me that bad OL is the reason that Allen is yolo'ing the ball deep downfield. That just...doesn't track? There were checkdowns open on at least two of the INTs, too. He can even just throw it away. Doesn't matter the play call, he can do that regardless. It is a choice he is making. The OL and coaches are not forcing that to happen.

He’s also equating pass blocking with run blocking. 
 

You can be good at run blocking but terrible in pass pro 

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I am the biggest Joe Burrow hater on this entire forum, and even I recognize that his OL's have been beyond atrocious for his entire career basically. I can't believe I'm reading posts seriously suggesting otherwise in an attempt to make Josh Allen look better or something.

All of the below can be true simultaneously:

  1. Joe Burrow has had bad offensive lines throughout his career
  2. Josh Allen has turnover issues
  3. The Bills' offensive scheme has massive issues and Josh Allen hides a lot of it because of how good he is

Nothing anyone has said makes it so that these 3 statements of fact conflict with each other.

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Josh Allen punching the air right now wishing he had this OL.

LT Jonah Williams - Generally average tackle play at best throughout career. Now moved to RT.

LG - Quinton Spain - Out of the league.

C Trey Hopkins - Out of the league.

RG Hakeem Adeniji - Vikings practice squad.

RT Isaiah Prince - Back up LT for the Falcons.

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32 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Josh Allen punching the air right now wishing he had this OL.

LT Jonah Williams - Generally average tackle play at best throughout career. Now moved to RT.

LG - Quinton Spain - Out of the league.

C Trey Hopkins - Out of the league.

RG Hakeem Adeniji - Vikings practice squad.

RT Isaiah Prince - Back up LT for the Falcons.

The only thing Josh Allen and Joe Burrow have in common is that their offensive systems are being propped up by generational talent at QB and/or WR. If you put Burrow or Allen in an offensive system that wasn't actually god awful - my goodness.

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40 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Josh Allen punching the air right now wishing he had this OL.

LT Jonah Williams - Generally average tackle play at best throughout career. Now moved to RT.

LG - Quinton Spain - Out of the league.

C Trey Hopkins - Out of the league.

RG Hakeem Adeniji - Vikings practice squad.

RT Isaiah Prince - Back up LT for the Falcons.

But hey - they run block well. Look at Joe Mixon.

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6 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

The only thing Josh Allen and Joe Burrow have in common is that their offensive systems are being propped up by generational talent at QB and/or WR. If you put Burrow or Allen in an offensive system that wasn't actually god awful - my goodness.

I watched LAR@SEA yesterday and man, it's a night and day difference watching McVay's offense versus ours. Made Tutu Atwell looked like a young Tyreek Hill. Also Stafford is still really, really good.

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Yeah, I’m not of the belief that Burrow is the clear cut #2 behind Mahomes, but his OL has been crap for years, he’s made up for it, as well as having 1 elite receiver, 1 really really good receiver, and 1 really good slot receiver. 
 

I think Joe and Josh truly are interchangeable, Joe tends to make better decisions, but isn’t going to give you the holy **** how’d he do that plays on the level Allen will either. 
 

 

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21 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

Yeah, I’m not of the belief that Burrow is the clear cut #2 behind Mahomes, but his OL has been crap for years, he’s made up for it, as well as having 1 elite receiver, 1 really really good receiver, and 1 really good slot receiver. 
 

I think Joe and Josh truly are interchangeable, Joe tends to make better decisions, but isn’t going to give you the holy **** how’d he do that plays on the level Allen will either. 
 

 

Joe is the accuracy, decision making, and ball placement.

Josh is the flare, athleticism, and rocket arm.

Pat is a combo of the two.

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23 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

Yeah, I’m not of the belief that Burrow is the clear cut #2 behind Mahomes, but his OL has been crap for years, he’s made up for it, as well as having 1 elite receiver, 1 really really good receiver, and 1 really good slot receiver. 
 

I think Joe and Josh truly are interchangeable, Joe tends to make better decisions, but isn’t going to give you the holy **** how’d he do that plays on the level Allen will either. 
 

 

Joe also isn't going to give you the holy **** WTF is he doing-type plays.

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