The 2024 Commanders NFL Draft Thread

[taylor made]

Much better with the short screen game in this one. Maye shows a couple plays where he can be special. The deep throw where he launches one with not much buildup and then the scramble where he throws with his off hand for a TD. Also shows some really good runs where he show s a fast 10 yard speed. Could be better in the pocket once again and I'd like him to be able to use his athleticism better here. 

Edited February 15 by taylor made

[MikeT14]

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

I don’t see Lamar when I watch Jayden Daniels run. I see straight line speed, not ankle breaking moves like Lamar & Vick have/had. When I watch Daniels, I see RG3 2.0. 
 

Daniels is a one read & then run QB. He’s a straight line runner with sprinters speed & he’s built like a sprinter/WR at 6’4 200 to 210 pounds. Considering he’s 2 inches taller than RG3 and at the least 5 pounds lighter than him, he’s skinner than RG3.

Daniels’s one read and run game is a real concern for me. I wanted RG3 but I remember that being a concern of mine when he was drafted as well. Daniels does not stay in the pocket and scan the field from what I’ve seen, he doesn’t get to his 2nd or third reads or hit check downs; instead he takes off and runs while taking unnecessary hits at 210 pounds at best.

If we take him, I certainly hope I’m wrong about all this but I have a major concern that he will be RG3 in a pro style offense unless the offense we install has zone read in it w/ easy reads/passing concepts.

Im with @lavar703 I do not understand why anyone thinks Jayden Daniels has a higher ceiling except that he can be like & is like RG3 as a track/WR style runner in the open field.

Daniels played 5 years in college, he, Nix & Penix are far closer to their ceilings than Caleb Williams & Drake Maye just for that reason alone not to mention the later 2 are younger.

To clarify I wasn’t trying to say Jayden and Lamar were the same runner (although I think he’s closer than you do).  I just meant statistically I think he can get there. 

[ripsean21]

17 minutes ago, taylor made said:

Just watched Drake Maye vs Miami and unfortunately wasn't that impressed with him this game. He doesn't feel pressure that well here. He can take the hits well though and I don't think he's gonna have any ball security issues, which is good. Alright on the WR screens, but not great on the quicker screens. Attacks the middle of the field and has some hit or miss success there. A mixed bag

That one game is almost any game you watch him where it’s a similar level or higher ranked opponent. What you said about feeling pressure is why I like Shadure Sanders so much. He has so much young Russ in him. He legit feels back side pressure and has that Caleb magic. But we will see this year I think Colorado will be better they got some good trench help let’s see if the gel and can get it out there on the field

[taylor made]

1 hour ago, ripsean21 said:

That one game is almost any game you watch him where it’s a similar level or higher ranked opponent. What you said about feeling pressure is why I like Shadure Sanders so much. He has so much young Russ in him. He legit feels back side pressure and has that Caleb magic. But we will see this year I think Colorado will be better they got some good trench help let’s see if the gel and can get it out there on the field

It's a concern for sure. I thought this game against South Carolina was finally where he showed some decent pocket presence. It's something that's pretty hard to project to the next level. I love Drake's size and potentially his speed. Drake is a tough evaluation and I try to be objective as possible. We'll hopefully know more at the combine. He was playing pretty well in this game until he had some later INTs. I love that we have the option of any of the top 3 QBs potentially and I think it was you who like JJ McCarthy, I also liked a lot from the little that I had seen of his. 

[ripsean21]

8 hours ago, taylor made said:

It's a concern for sure. I thought this game against South Carolina was finally where he showed some decent pocket presence. It's something that's pretty hard to project to the next level. I love Drake's size and potentially his speed. Drake is a tough evaluation and I try to be objective as possible. We'll hopefully know more at the combine. He was playing pretty well in this game until he had some later INTs. I love that we have the option of any of the top 3 QBs potentially and I think it was you who like JJ McCarthy, I also liked a lot from the little that I had seen of his. 

I know I take heat for the criticism of Maye. As we know I’m critical until I’m won over. I loved Maye when I watched him Sam’s last year in their spring game and was like okay he’s next. The biggest thing for me is I have certain things I’ve learned over the years that are die hard for me. I love his potential. Potential is easy to fall in love with. That’s why guys like Zack Wilson and guys who can wow you with size or legs rise. But one thing I always stand on is do they win. We can watch games and say okay they lost but he put them in a spot to win. And we can get with that okay they aren’t losing because the QB. He’s got what it takes to win. Maye every time I watched the bigger games. It’s like he couldn’t take things from game to game and it was super frustrating. At the QB position there are very few trucks. Most are trailers and the team can win with them as long as they have XYZ. And that’s okay but that’s not the narrative we’re getting. We’re getting this oh your top 2 and there’s these 3 guys. And 4 other potential 1’s. Okay that’s great but out of those 7 how many will truely hit? Better yet how many hit because they exceed and elevate the team and system around them? Well statistically speaking maybe one. 2 if your lucky. It’s not a bash on Maye. He is the player you create on madden from a ratings standpoint. But as we know this game and especially that position require so much more.

My thing with JJ is to play at Michigan and that type offense he sacrificed a lot for team success over personal accolade. That says something too me. They rarely get him in rythm. He takes a ton of snaps under center. He toned out all the noise. He elevated in the biggest moments. And he didn’t pull no hero crap trying to boost his stock for his sake. He just played team first ball. And while people can say okay well he didn’t throw a ton. Well that actually works against a QB. He isn’t like Tua Jones Burrow Stroud or Fields. Those guys all had pro bowl level or higher guys to throw too in college. Michigan doesn’t. They have a good burner who I believe will assess come draft time. And they have the second best TE in college behind Bowers. JJ has shown he has the mental makeup for the distractions and to run a pro offense. He has progressed in big moments from year to year. And he’s a heck of an athlete which we all know I value. I think the kid is the total package. I believe he can only get better throwing in rythm. And he’s not to proud to hand the ball off for a win if it’s the best thing for the TEAM. In a era of me me me’s and social media; I believe he’s a true throwback with modern ability. You pair him with a Terry and Jahan in this offense with air raid principals I believe this guy will only get better. You add a scat back to Robinson or bring back AG who is a pass catcher maybe someone here will actually use that I believe JJ can thrive in it. Personally I’m probably just waisting time falling in love with another player who will thrive elsewhere. But he’s the guy I believe has the best all around package and presents the best value in the class and that’s what I always look for.

[turtle28]

@ripsean21 I hate to say this but, JJ McCarthy has become your Kellen Mond.

JJ has rarely displayed the ability to carry an offense in college on his own arm.

You talk about there being an issue w/ falling in love with QBs potential well hell, you’re falling in love with that too when you’re projecting McCarthy into something he’s never shown to be. McCarthy absolutely rode the running game to wins the last 2 years & one of the top D’s in the nation.

My guess is Harbaugh did that bc it was the only way he thought they could win. If he didn’t feel that was the case then Harbaugh would’ve threw more and treated McCarthy like Andrew Luck & threw the ball a lot more. The fact that Harbaugh had a run first offense tells us a lot about what he thought of McCarthy’s ability to carry Michigan on his arm alone.

Edited February 16 by turtle28

[ripsean21]

28 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

@ripsean21 I hate to say this but, JJ McCarthy has become you’re Kellen Mond.

JJ has rarely displayed the ability to carry an offense in college on his own arm.

You talk about there being an issue w/ falling in love with QBs potential well hell, you’re falling in love with that too when you’re projecting McCarthy into something he’s never shown to be. McCarthy absolutely rode the running game to wins the last 2 years & one of the top D’s in the nation.

My guess is Harbaugh did that bc it was the only way he thought he could win. If he didn’t feel that was the case then Harbaugh would’ve threw more and treated McCarthy like he Andre Luck & threw the ball a lot more. The fact that Harbaugh had a run first offense tells us a lot about what he thought of McCarthy’s ability to carry Michigan on his arm alone.

I can live with that. I admit Kellen Mond didn’t live up to his potential but it was a longshot! And it isn’t like I ranked him higher than Fields Lance or Lawrence. But I did have him higher than Wilson and Jones and I’d say they’ve all ended up the same 🤣🤣🤣. I just like JJ’s intangibles. I don’t have him higher than Williams or Daniels. But I do think he has just as good a chance of panning out as Maye. Especially if Maye goes top 3 and JJ goes to a better team.. again I’ve seen him make the big time throws when his team needed it. Same with Daniels and Williams. I haven’t seen Maye win many big games at UNC. I don’t hate him. I just hate comps saying he’s Josh Allen who had nobody at WR at Wyoming or Herbert who showed at the SB he was much better than the system he played in. I hate that me saying Maye has shortcomings and I don’t think he’s a top 5 pick doesn’t add up to I think he’s a first rounder. He is all day everyday. But the things I have needed to see to be a franchise altering player I’ve never seen with any consistency. And to JJ. It matters too me that he played the ball his team needed him to play. Last year he threw to win games. He didn’t just forget how to do that. There’s a difference in not being able to do something and not being asked to systematically.

Edited February 15 by ripsean21

[ripsean21]

Trust me I don’t pretend to be a QB whisperer. If I was I think I’d have a football job lol. It’s like I say every class usually finds itself with a franchise altering QB. Even in Howells class and I said I’d bank on Howell and it’s been Purdy. So again I know I’m not always right. But there are lessons in every class. And my eyes aren’t always right. QB’s are hard. And intangibles matter. That’s where I like JJ. Does he have concerns? Heck yeah. If he answered them all he’d be sure fire number one. Is he? No. But it’s traits based. It’s projection based and its intangibles all added up together which has bought confidence in him. I’m not saying take him 2. I’m saying I’d love for him to be our QB. But I’d love Williams Daniels and I’d pray like heck we can coach Maye up because he unquestionably has shown everything it takes on tape. It’s consistency and intangibles that I worry about because winners win. He’s struggled in that reguard and typically if you aren’t elevating your teams to win up in college you won’t in the NFL come playoff time and we’ve seen that over and over. 

[lavar703]

I have been wrong on so many QBs that you'd think I'd stop but nope, here I am lol

[Slappy Mc]

2 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I have been wrong on so many QBs that you'd think I'd stop but nope, here I am lol

 

[e16bball]

I’m actually higher on JJ McCarthy than a lot of people (though not the NFL, apparently) as well.

If you can get past all the obvious disqualifiers — the very low workload and the fact that basically the entirety of his offensive roster will play in the NFL — what he’s doing on the tape actually looks very good. He has a good to very good arm, he obviously can hurt you with the legs, he’s very solid on the short throws (seems more flexible with his hips and upper body than a guy like Maye), and even with the relatively low degree of difficulty, I still think you see more tight window throws from him than you do from Daniels. 

The fact that he’s also the youngest QB in the draft is appealing to me. All things equal, I have some interest in the kid who beat Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa, Texas, and Washington back-to-back to claim a national championship at the age of 20. Yes, he had the benefit of clearly the best team, and I fully agree that it’s not like JJ McCarthy was winning these games for them — but he made some throws and made some plays, and really avoided any big negatives throughout that stretch run. The drive against Alabama to tie it and sent it to OT was a lot on him, for example. 

Anyway, with him more than almost anyone else (maybe not Nix?), the draft position would come down to the intangibles. If I think he’s a precociously smart, fast processing, elite leader — I could envision taking him top 15 with the physical abilities he has and gambling that he’s capable of becoming more with an expanded role. If he’s not off the charts in those areas, he’s a 2nd round “sit for a year” guy for me. Which is not something I’m typically a big believer in (the second round part, not the sit for a year part).

[turtle28]

I’m not here to bash McCarthy, I’m merely trying ti defend Drake Maye as a better prospect than him. Does that mean I’m right? Hell no.

As @lavar703 said I’ve been way more wrong than right in my QB evaluations the last 25 years since 2000 or so. 
 

But, I will always have a feather in my cap for wanting Drew Brees in the 2001 draft over taking Rod Gardner & if we were going to take a WR, I wanted Santana Moss. I was at WVU when Moss was at Miami and I watched him in person absolutely dismantle the WVU D, if it wasn’t going to be Brees, it should’ve been Santana Moss in 2001. 

[taylor made]

6 hours ago, lavar703 said:

I have been wrong on so many QBs that you'd think I'd stop but nope, here I am lol

You aren't alone. I think I calculated around 40% of First Round QBs have been worth their value in the past 20 years. 

[lavar703]

1 hour ago, taylor made said:

You aren't alone. I think I calculated around 40% of First Round QBs have been worth their value in the past 20 years. 

It’s an educated guessing game. Where even the best evaluators get it wrong so some Joe Shmoe like me will certainly have a low hit rate. It’s the fun of making picks from a message board. There’s no consequences lol

[lavar703]

And with that in mind, please for the love of god do no take Jayden Daniels over Drake Maye. If you trade back somehow and want to take Jayden Daniels and he's there then go for it but do not take him over Maye. Take the 6'4 230lb rocket armed 21-year old. I get all of the excitement that comes along with Daniels. He runs and causes issues for defenses and yadda yadda yadda. He also refuses to slide and takes massive hits and we've been down this road. It will absolutely end in similar fashion. Don't be dumb. Do the right thing this time. TAKE DRAKE MAYE!