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The 2024 Commanders NFL Draft Thread


MikeT14

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I can see some similarities between Howell and Maye. Although it’s moreso in circumstances/situation than the actual players themselves. 

They’re roughly similar, in the sense that they’re both guys with nice arms who can also run some, but the passing game will always be the key to what they do. 

But the real comparison I see between the two is that they both took a step back in their last season, due in large part to personnel losses around them. With less reliable receivers and deteriorating OL play, they struggled to adjust. 

The thing is, even if you think they’re similar, Maye is better than Howell at literally everything Howell is good at, except probably accuracy outside the numbers. A lot taller, more classic QB frame (lanky rather than squatty), stronger arm, faster runner, more creative, and seemingly better pre-snap reader. He did what he did with worse personnel around him at UNC, and he also did it while having to weather the loss of his OC (and turmoil around his only decent receiver) in his second year as a starter. 

I guess the point is, if you think Maye is similar to Howell, and you think Howell has a chance to be successful — I think you’d almost have to be massively more confident in Maye’s chances, given that (if they’re similar) he’d have to be a very, very wealthy man’s Howell. 

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https://theathletic.com/5301341/2024/02/28/caleb-williams-quarterback-nfl-draft-ownership/?source=pulsenewsletter&campaign=9118630&userId=4430697

I’m just going to say, if dad is the agent and attempting to find loopholes in rookie contracts and trying for team ownership (which was already rumored), I want no part of Caleb Williams.  And I have a feeling that it is entirely possible that if this kind of stuff continues, #2 might be the worst position to have in this draft.  

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Here’s my thing. I am not going to make this a McCarthy post even though I’d take him over just about all of them even though I love Daniels skillset and Williams is the number 1 talent. But trade back!!! Rob a team get future  1’s people say oh we’re two you won’t be back here. That’s not true you pick a guy at 2 that sucks and we will be right back!! Also you trade for all those picks and work them right you have the ammo to go get your guy while putting a roster around them before you get the guy. 
people talk about Mahomes. Okay Mahomes team was in the playoffs 5 years in a row the had a talented roster they traded up. Then another model similar is the eagles. They had hurts traded Wentz and kept trading for future 1’s and Hurts just happened to click when the roster was built and they gave him that time. But show me a team that was bad that moved up for a QB and it made a difference for more then 2 years?

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10 hours ago, e16bball said:

The thing is, even if you think they’re similar, Maye is better than Howell at literally everything Howell is good at, except probably accuracy outside the numbers. A lot taller, more classic QB frame (lanky rather than squatty), stronger arm, faster runner, more creative, and seemingly better pre-snap reader. He did what he did with worse personnel around him at UNC, and he also did it while having to weather the loss of his OC (and turmoil around his only decent receiver) in his second year as a starter. 

I guess the point is, if you think Maye is similar to Howell, and you think Howell has a chance to be successful — I think you’d almost have to be massively more confident in Maye’s chances, given that (if they’re similar) he’d have to be a very, very wealthy man’s Howell. 

The biggest difference between myself and the majority of people here is even if Maye is better than Howell in every category as stated, I believe, it is not as big of a discrepancy as suggested. Certainly not enough to warrant using a "franchise altering pick" on him. I don't believe that Maye is light-years physically or mentally ahead of Howell. The same red flags that Howell has, are the knocks on Maye. Heck, I can't even tell you confidently that Maye would beat Howell outright in a fair QB competition. That is why, IMO, if they go QB at 2 it has to be a different skillset/play-style QB (Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels). 

I still prefer a trade down over pretty much any of the QB options in this "loaded" QB class.

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I’m having a hard time with the fact that the options are somehow being boiled down to a binary choice between “take a QB” or “build up the roster.”

Everyone agrees that you want a young QB to play with a strong group around him. More importantly, as we’ve said, you especially don’t want a terrible group around him — that’s how you ruin talented guys.

But why is it that some folks don’t think we’re able to do both? Even if we take the QB at 2, we have FIVE other picks in the top 100ish of this draft and like $90M in cap space. We’ve got more available roster upgrade capital than pretty much any team in the league. We really don’t have faith that Adam Peters is able to take all those assets and build a quality group around a QB?

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1 minute ago, e16bball said:

I’m having a hard time with the fact that the options are somehow being boiled down to a binary choice between “take a QB” or “build up the roster.”

Everyone agrees that you want a young QB to play with a strong group around him. More importantly, as we’ve said, you especially don’t want a terrible group around him — that’s how you ruin talented guys.

But why is it that some folks don’t think we’re able to do both? Even if we take the QB at 2, we have FIVE other picks in the top 100ish of this draft and like $90M in cap space. We’ve got more available roster upgrade capital than pretty much any team in the league. We really don’t have faith that Adam Peters is able to take all those assets and build a quality group around a QB?

Ya this is where I'm at. Our cupboard is already pretty full. 

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24 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

The biggest difference between myself and the majority of people here is even if Maye is better than Howell in every category as stated, I believe, it is not as big of a discrepancy as suggested. Certainly not enough to warrant using a "franchise altering pick" on him. I don't believe that Maye is light-years physically or mentally ahead of Howell. The same red flags that Howell has, are the knocks on Maye. Heck, I can't even tell you confidently that Maye would beat Howell outright in a fair QB competition. That is why, IMO, if they go QB at 2 it has to be a different skillset/play-style QB (Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels). 

I still prefer a trade down over pretty much any of the QB options in this "loaded" QB class.

Well if you don't like the options at QB in this draft you're certainly going to hate them next year...

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8 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I’m having a hard time with the fact that the options are somehow being boiled down to a binary choice between “take a QB” or “build up the roster.”

I have the same problem for discussions when it comes to the #2 overall pick it. There is a vast majority that believes its a "have to" take the QB of your choice deal. You could easily take a top talent like MHJr at 2 and draft a McCarthy/Penix/Nix in the 2nd. 

 

12 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Everyone agrees that you want a young QB to play with a strong group around him. More importantly, as we’ve said, you especially don’t want a terrible group around him — that’s how you ruin talented guys.

But why is it that some folks don’t think we’re able to do both? Even if we take the QB at 2, we have FIVE other picks in the top 100ish of this draft and like $90M in cap space. We’ve got more available roster upgrade capital than pretty much any team in the league. We really don’t have faith that Adam Peters is able to take all those assets and build a quality group around a QB?

My belief is that the team will be set up for success better auctioning off #2 to the highest bidder and working from there. Whether they draft a QB with the pick they traded down to, later in the draft or not at all, IDC. We all agree we need better QB play, but we also need significantly better O-Line play, TE play and WR play on that side of the ball. 

That's just the offensive side of the ball. The defense was worse. 

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Just now, lavar703 said:

Well if you don't like the options at QB in this draft you're certainly going to hate them next year...

The only option is drafting a QB early right? That's what's being thrown around constantly. 

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19 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I’m having a hard time with the fact that the options are somehow being boiled down to a binary choice between “take a QB” or “build up the roster.”

Everyone agrees that you want a young QB to play with a strong group around him. More importantly, as we’ve said, you especially don’t want a terrible group around him — that’s how you ruin talented guys.

But why is it that some folks don’t think we’re able to do both? Even if we take the QB at 2, we have FIVE other picks in the top 100ish of this draft and like $90M in cap space. We’ve got more available roster upgrade capital than pretty much any team in the league. We really don’t have faith that Adam Peters is able to take all those assets and build a quality group around a QB?

Honestly, I think some are just terrified of blowing the pick. We have spent the last 4 years have every fan of this team ***** about the Chase Young pick and how it should've been Tua or Herbert. Mind you, Tua was coming off of a major hip injury and Herbert had a regression much like Maye is experiencing now amongst the draftniks. However, here we are, same scenario playing out right before us and the same guys want to either trade down or take Marvin Harrison Jr. Its not just Slappy either, its fans everywhere. Calling into radio stations, on Reddit, the dummies at Hogs Haven. I think when push comes to shove, this fanbase is more terrified of getting wrong than they are excited about getting it right. 

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12 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Ya this is where I'm at. Our cupboard is already pretty full. 

Nobody loves trading down more than me. I would almost always trade down, if given a fair price to do so. In fact, there’s really only one scenario in which my first preference would not be to trade down.

It just so happens that we’re currently in that one scenario.

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2 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

The only option is drafting a QB early right? That's what's being thrown around constantly. 

For the most part, yes. I am not taking a QB who has already had 4 major injuries and is older than Sam Howell. I'm also not taking a QB who was practically awful until he transferred to Oregon and started throwing 40 5-yard passes every game. And as far as McCarthy goes, we have absolutely no idea what he is and he'll be gone in the top 15 picks. He had one game over 300 yards. He barely threw the ball. He is a complete mystery. So for me, I'm either taking Maye or Daniels. Both are far better than what you see at QB in most drafts and while I have Maye quite a bit ahead of Daniels both represent upgrades over Sam. 

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8 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

I have the same problem for discussions when it comes to the #2 overall pick it. There is a vast majority that believes it’s a "have to" take the QB of your choice deal. You could easily take a top talent like MHJr at 2 and draft a McCarthy/Penix/Nix in the 2nd.

The only time it becomes a “have to” situation, for me, is when you (a) don’t have a franchise QB and (b) believe a guy on the board is a good bet to be your franchise QB. That trumps everything else.

But if the player isn’t there, you don’t do it just to do it. Even though we desperately needed a QB, wouldn’t have taken any of the QBs at #2 in 2022, for example. I would have last year (Stroud) and I would have in 2021 (Fields). 

The difference, and this is the reason we keep talking past each other on this, is that we evaluate the QBs differently. You think Maye is middle-class man’s Howell, and I think he has one of the 10-15 highest ceilings of any QB to come out in the last decade. And I think the same about Williams and even Daniels. It’ll always be bordering on impossible for us to agree on what we should do with that pick when I see these QBs as extraordinarily valuable assets and you see them as booby traps.

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30 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

For the most part, yes. I am not taking a QB who has already had 4 major injuries and is older than Sam Howell. I'm also not taking a QB who was practically awful until he transferred to Oregon and started throwing 40 5-yard passes every game. And as far as McCarthy goes, we have absolutely no idea what he is and he'll be gone in the top 15 picks. He had one game over 300 yards. He barely threw the ball. He is a complete mystery. So for me, I'm either taking Maye or Daniels. Both are far better than what you see at QB in most drafts and while I have Maye quite a bit ahead of Daniels both represent upgrades over Sam. 

This, again, is why I decided to avoid QB discussions. Painting yourself into a corner where there is only one option is not how you run a successful organization. Also, Adam Peters just came from a franchise that drafted their QBotF with the last pick in the draft. The greatest QB of all time was drafted in the 6th round. Yes they are anomalies, but also examples of QBs drafted outside of the 1st round that made it. 

On top of that, Len Dawson, Johnny Unitas, Roger Staubach, Ken Stabler, Joe Theismann, Joe Montana, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Nick Foles have all won SBs despite being drafted outside the 1st round. 

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12 minutes ago, e16bball said:

The only time it becomes a “have to” situation, for me, is when you (a) don’t have a franchise QB and (b) believe a guy on the board is a good bet to be your franchise QB. That trumps everything else.

Again, my opinion is different specifically for this. I have serious doubts about any of the QBs this year panning out. Even the top guy has serious character concerns that give me pause at pulling the trigger. 

13 minutes ago, e16bball said:

But if the player isn’t there, you don’t do it just to do it. Even though we desperately needed a QB, wouldn’t have taken any of the QBs at #2 in 2022, for example. I would have last year (Stroud) and I would have in 2021 (Fields). 

The difference, and this is the reason we keep talking past each other on this, is that we evaluate the QBs differently. You think Maye is middle-class man’s Howell, and I think he has one of the 10-15 highest ceilings of any QB to come out in the last decade. And I think the same about Williams and even Daniels. It’ll always be bordering on impossible for us to agree on what we should do with that pick when I see these QBs as extraordinarily valuable assets and you see them as booby traps.

There has only been one QB that I have been completely enamored over, that I can remember, since the turning of the millennium and that is Josh Allen. That means that I have been wrong about all of the QBs that have panned out in that span. I am in no way saying that I am correct and anyone else is wrong, I just have a difference of opinion as you said. I respect and appreciate you and Lavar engaging with me on the subject. I just need to obstain from participating in draft discussions because I know I'm the minority.

I will be curious to see if they target a veteran QB in FA first and how that might impact people's plans/requirements for the #2 pick.

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