BDL 2023 Week 3 - Cuba Smugglers @ Gotham Gashslayers

[rackcs]

BDL 2023 Week 3

Match:  Cuba Smugglers @ Gotham Gashslayers

Away Owner: @MD4L

Home Owner: @Whicker

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[rackcs]

Lineups

Cuba Smugglers

QB: Deshaun Watson
RB: Travis Etienne
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Calvin Ridley
WR: Puka Nacua
TE: Dawson Knox 
LT: Mekhi Becton
LG: Ezra Cleveland
C - Jason Kelce
RG: Wyatt Teller
RT: Darnell Wright

QB: Ryan Tannehill
WR: Zay Flowers
WR: Marvin Mims
WR: Rondale Moore
TE: Austin Hooper
RB: Samaje Perine
RB: Zach Charbonnet
OL: Jonah Williams

Edge: Rashan Gary
DT: David Onyemata 
DT: Zach Sieler
Edge: Bradley Chubb
WLB: Leighton Vander Esch
STAR: Derwin James
RCB: Xavien Howard
FS: DeShone Elliot
SS: Vonn Bell
NCB: Alontae Taylor
LCB: Denzel Ward

Edge: Lukas Van Ness
DT: Dre’Mont Jones
DT: Karl Brooks
Edge: Rashad Weaver
MLB: Bobby Okereke 
OLB: Henry To’Oto’O 
NCB: Kader Kohou
RCB: Martin Emerson

Gotham Gashslayers

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Bijan Robinson
WR: Tyreek Hill
WR: Tee Higgins
WR: Christian Kirk
WR: Adam Thielen
LT: Paris Johnson Jr
LG: Peter Skoronski
😄 John Michael-Schmitz
RG: Shaq Mason
RT: Taylor Moton

QB: Trey Lance
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB: Elijah Mitchell
WR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR: Alec Pierce
TE: Adam Trautman
OL: Kevin Zeitler
OL: Jake Matthews

LEO: Arnold Ebikete
DT: Chris Jones
NT: Michael Pierce
DE: Demarcus Lawrence
Rush LB: Nolan Smith
LB: Germaine Pratt
LB: Christian Harris
CB: Ahmad Gardner
CB: Kendall Fuller
CB: Tyson Campbell
S: Micah Hyde

INT: Sheldon Rankins
INT: Grover Stewart
INT: Daquan Jones
Edge: Myles Murphy
LB: Brian Asamoah
CB: Cordale Flott
S: Tre'von Moehrig
S: Dane Belton

[rackcs]

Gameplans

Cuba Smugglers

Intro
Coming off a tough loss to an excellent Baltimore team, it does not get any easier with a high level team in Gotham coming to town. We have utmost respect for Whicker and know we’ll need to be at our best.

Offense 
After a disappointing output last week, we understand our offense is best suited with a pass friendly approach. Gotham has an impressive secondary but we have a WR group capable of beating premier secondaries. Beginning with Justin Jefferson and the shadow responsibility of Sauce Gardner, we would like to note that Gardner does not line up in the slot. That will matter wholeheartedly as Jefferson will do plenty of motioning into the slot. We want to establish a quick strike offense predicated on getting the ball out quickly and continually using our WRs YAC ability to keep the chains at a reasonable rate for our offense. We will stack Jefferson profusely as Puka and Ridley have both began the season as target heavy weapons in their respective offensive systems. We like that flat/slant, flat/in, and flat/drag cut concepts that authentically create pick opportunities. Additionally, we’ll begin to leverage deeper targets as our QB gets into rhythm. Marvin Mims will play for about ten snaps but we want to include 2 to 3 vertical shots where he’s stacked with Jefferson who will run a crossing pattern and likely be ticketed with safety help. A big benefit of playing man heavy coverages is we can start throwing crossing patterns and create rubs that make easy throws possible for the QB. We will also keep Zay Flowers involved with several screen passes, 1 or 2 shovel tosses, and some vertical patterns where he’s stacked with Calvin Ridley or giving a breather to any of our starting WRs.

Deshaun Watson will start this game and gets the first half to show us what he’s got. We are aiming for a 55:45 pass-run ratio with an intent to use those quick passes as preparation to attack the intermediate area which is the most potent part of our receiving group. If Watson still struggles to complete over 58% of his passes and turns the ball over, Tannehill will take the reins in the 2nd half. Tannehill is functional when he’s got pieces around him like our current skill group. We would up the running game to a near even balance but open up the WRs to motion on jet sweeps with counters to Travis Etienne.

Doubling down on the running game, we are going to constantly test the edges for Gotham. While our tackles leave something on the table in pass pro, we like the opportunities to get the running game going with Becton and Wright helping the interior get to the 2nd level. Watson will play a big role in helping get our run game open as Kelce will help our guards put a 2nd body on Chris Jones. Watson has shown well keeping the ball and using his legs when need be so he’ll help Etienne avoid having all the attention of Gotham in the run game. We have a couple invaried looks where we’ll bunch Knox or Hooper with Jefferson and Ridley with Flowers in the backfield and Etienne as a WR. He’ll motion and be the recipient of a couple jet sweeps where we can get him going opposite the edge Lawrence lines up. Final note, Austin Hooper and Dawson Knox split about 50/50 of the snap count so Hooper can help the blocking up front.

In protection, the big goal is helping against Chris Jones. Our interior remains a strength but we will use Hooper as a chip to help our tackles against Lawrence. We have some two TE sets where Hooper will motion pre snap and get on Knox side to help against Lawrence or snap the ball as he motions with the QB in shot gun to help against Chris Jones.

Defense

This week we play one of the most explosive skill groups in the league. We have two players of interest to stop and as a by product can operate our regular defense otherwise.

To absolutely no surprise, we’re going to predicate our game plan behind slowing down Tyreek Hill. Our defense will be primarily zone with Derwin James playing a position less role where he’ll serve as the LB but move deeper toward the back end to give us 3 safety looks that will serve as preparation for any flood concepts and patterns that let Hill win vertically. We’re playing sides so Denzel Ward will definitely have some looks where he can challenge Hill at the line of scrimmage. Xavien Howard won’t have that same responsibility as well let him play 15 yards off the LOS on some occasions. The rational is Gotham will aim to get the ball out of Dak’s hands quickly so an important aspect of the game is making tackles in the open space and coaching our defense to try to under cut and aggressively play the ball if Gotham keeps attempting quick reads. Alontae Taylor will serve as the slot CB but with his ability to play safety and 4.36 speed, we’re comfortable running some looks where he drops back into the deep end so James and Vonn Bell can come into the box. James will already be in the second level but we want opportunities for Bell to come down hill and remain cognizant of the Hill upside. In anticipation of Hill motions, we’re going to have the side he motions to move back deep (Taylor or James) so the opposite side can come down into the box and read the opposite key to move up field on pass plays or approach the counter run game Gotham likes to use.

Bijon Robinson is the 2nd biggest key to this game and the reason we want James AND Bell coming into the box on certain occasions. Vander Esch can assist in coverage and we will put Bobby Okereke into the game on some obvious run situations. The key thing is Gotham is locked in on using 4 WR sets and being able to slow down the deep threat to Hill is one aspect of our defense. Pertaining to Bijon our goal is keep our defense in position where we can make tackles on him in open space and keep guys with the physical capabilities on the field to avoid him from absolutely taking over the game.

One major benefit of playing a 4 WR set is having an opportunity to get to the passer. We expect a dose of Bijon Robinson touches but also want to make life difficult on Prescott. We have a healthy rotation of pass rushers and Bradley Chubb emerging after his best game as a Dolphins getting after the passer. With Gary and Chubb, we’ll be selective on opportunities we want them to move directly upfield. There will be opportunities to hit Prescott and slow down the passing game when we win on selective early downs. On a handful of snaps, we’ll put both guys in a wide 9 set so they have room to operate against the opposing tackles. We want to play some games with Derwin James coming off the edge in some stunts and twists with Gary to accommodate for any Prescott situations where he wants to move up in the pocket and utilize his mobile ability to make a play. We’ll have Lukas Van Ness on the edge taking snaps from each guy while he’ll also pair with Dre’Mont Jones on pass rushing downs to give us a speed package capable of getting after the passer. 

Expect a base cover 4 set. We will mix in cover 6 as the boundary CB will be in the mix against flood concepts. The Hill responsibility is a collective group effort. He will obviously run a lot of pre snap motions so beyond the non boundary CBs, Derwin James, Alontae Taylor, Vonn Bell, and Deshone Elliot will alternate responsibility. Because Hill will primarily be in the slot, we never have to isolate anyone to distinctly account for him but we will always keep a primary guy in front of him with another safety playing deep. Elliot will keep a 20 yard cushion playing in the backend to solidify the responsibility.

Lastly, we will have some opportunities where we get Vander Esch off the field and make James the primary player at the 2nd level. We will move Vonn Bell down as the STAR and get Kader Kohou on the field. Taylor will move back as the deep safety and we’ll throw Karl Brooks to the edge in 3 DL looks with Gary or Chubb opposite. James will be used as a traditional LB with additional speed on the 2nd level to account for a pass friendly presnap look.

Beyond those two options, our defense is mainly aiming to account for flood concepts and preventing the deep ball. We’ll let Higgins and Kirk have solid performances at the cost of Hill and Bijon taking over the games. On our lightest fronts (3 DL, safeties at LB), we’ll use some zone blitzes to prevent Dak from having clean pockets and instead make him accurately assess who is coming with the weak side of the formations being the player who blitzes.

Gotham Gashslayers

After a 2-0 start, we still don't believe we have the proper respect from the league. We will continue to prove all the preseason doubters wrong in this one.

Offense:

We believe this is a matchup we're built for as we plan to turn this into a shootout. We're going to run a fast paced offense with many quick-hitting routes that will be designed to stretch the defense horizontally and keep the chains moving.

Dak Prescott will operate mainly out of the shotgun in this one in order to help keep him as protected. We'll use a lot of pre-snap motion as well as differing WR formations in order to find favorable matchups against the Cuba Cbs. Cuba has mostly played sides with their corners this year and we think we can get Tyreek Hill and Christian Kirk good matchups on the inside. Against shadow coverage, we still believe we can find good matchups for Kirk and Adam Thielen against what we we expect to be an open middle of the field. Similar to last week, we want Hill to have plenty of option routes where he can get deep or settle depending on the safety shell.

Bijan Robinson will act as Prescott's personal air conditioning unit in this one and ensure that the heat stays off of him. We want the two of them to be in constant communication about defensive pressure, and Robinson will either pass protect, run a simple route in an area vacated by blitz, or take a handoff off of a draw. We expect Robinson to take about 15-20 carries as we, of course, want to keep our balance in playcalling.

Paris Johnson Jr. gets the start at LT this week after a good start to his rookie season. Between quick passes, shotgun formation, Robinson, and a solid O-line, we feel we have the tools this week to keep Prescott upright. We have Adam Trautman available for additional blocking if we are just getting killed.

Defense:

Aggression is the name of the game for us on defense. We have the corners to cover. We have the offense to make up points, and Cuba has a QB that has not looked good under pressure.

We want to run a hybrid front this week with essentially 3 edge rushers in Demarcus Lawrence, Arnold Ebiketie, and Nolan Smith. Smith and Ebikete will play a 9-tech from a two-point stance and rush the passer. Lawrence will line up on the outside shoulder of the RT and play the C-gap. Chris Jones will line up over the B-gap on the left side and shoot the gap. Michael Pierce will line up over the center and play both the A-gaps. Christian Harris will play downhill as a blitzing linebacker and fill the other B-gap. We feel like this will put tremendous pressure on Cuba to hold back extra blockers on pass plays and give us complete control over the line of scrimmage on running plays.

Ahmad Gardner will shadow Justin Jefferson and get him 1v1 on most plays. We trust our star and believe he can hold Jefferson from taking over the game. Like we've done every game so far, Kendall Fuller will play outside exclusively and Tyson Campbell will take whichever WR is left. Germaine Pratt will key on the RB and fall into a middle robber when he reads the RB as a pass protector. Micah Hyde will key on the TE and bail into a deep Cover-1.

Again, we expect our defense to give up some amount of points via quick scores, but we are more afraid of Cuba grinding us away and controlling the game with time of possession. We want get them into a shootout type game where they have to make multiple stops and play mistake free football on offense while under immense pressure.

[Blue]

Skoronski out again.

Look, I'd be willing to give the 4WR base offense a chance if you specified how much you're going to be in that formation vs. 3 WR, 2 TE, etc. But every team in the league is going to be coming after your quarterback constantly if this is what you're running for most of the game, and the run game is going to do jack all out of the shotgun with effectively five blockers. That's especially true when the defense, just as Cuba did here, is playing in zone because A) they don't have to cover the individual receivers one-to-one, B) they don't have their backs to the ball so they can see if it's a hand-off right away, C) they can come out with a heavier base defense to handle runs. It also really doesn't help when you're starting at least two, and apparently prefer to start three, rookies along that line and a guy at right tackle that I personally have seen struggle in pass pro this season.

I'd like to see more explanation from Gotham on what exactly their formations are gonna look like, because right now it just seems like a base 4 WR all game and I don't see that working. There's lots of good reasons NFL teams don't do this, even those with deep receiver groups.

[bcb1213]

I haven't voted yet, but Whicker, please clean up your players' names

it's 

John Michael Schmitz, no hyphen

Arnold Ebiketie

Cor'Dale Flott

DaQuan Jones

[Whicker]

5 minutes ago, bcb1213 said:

I haven't voted yet, but Whicker, please clean up your players' names

it's 

John Michael Schmitz, no hyphen

Arnold Ebiketie

Cor'Dale Flott

DaQuan Jones

You got me dammit lol

[TedLavie]

Look it's going to be more of the same for me here. I don't like base 4WR sets, I think Dak is going to get killed and/or Gotham is condemned to have a vanilla offense. With these weapons, this QB and a middling but not terrible OL, I think there's so much potential limited by this scheme. So far it's worked with voters so good for Whicker, but it's not working on me.

I do think Gotham D can be super effective here and match up well with Cuba. So it's not a blowout by any means. Cuba 17-7

[RuskieTitan]

I like Gotham at home in this matchup. I think their defense has an advantage and they execute on offense.

[Ragnarok]

I do agree with blue that I need to see some formation variation from Gotham.  It is impossible to run a 4 WR set all game and win.  If you're saying 4 WRs are going out on 51% of the snaps and the other 49% is whatever, I can buy into that.

That aside, both teams have very talented secondaries.  Both teams have some questions on the OL.  Both teams have talented pass catchers and RBs.  I view the QBs similarly.

I think I trust the DL for Cuba to make one more play than the DL for Gotham.  I just haven't seen Arnold or Nolan do much yet.