Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?

[Forge]

 

[JIllg]

8 minutes ago, Forge said:

 

I'm feeling the Drew Brees vibes and they feel good.

[Forge]

Just now, JIllg said:

I'm feeling the Drew Brees vibes and they feel good.

I had the drew brees thought about 20 minutes ago

[typecast]

 

[Herodreamer79]

Brock Purdy is amazing. 

I was one of the biggest Purdy skeptics out there, but it's UNDENIABLE.

He's been the best QB in the NFL this season and deserves the MVP.

 

 

[Ftn49]

 

[JIllg]

So, I mostly enjoy Steve and Sam's PFF stuff, but the narrative that Brock has suddenly been playing better than he was during the first 5 games of the season is nonsense. Their company's inability to note Brock's big time throws in the first five weeks and his plays out of structure is a failure on PFF's part, not Brock's. Brock had no charted big time throws in the Steelers game, and that's just ludicrous, because for me there were at least 2 clear-cut ones in the second window cover 2 throw to Deebo and the back shoulder to Aiyuk for the TD. Plus, you have the spinning out of structure throw when Minkah had him dead to rights that you can do with whatever you want.

Guess what, guys? Brock's been awesome all season and the graininess of small sample sizes and internal biases bit ya. Happens to us all.

Brock has had the highest PFF grade since the bye, however. Along with the CPOE, that's just about every meaningful metric other than making Ruiz feel special that Purdy is tops at. This team is absolutely nuts on offense, but it is triply nuts because the QB is adding some serious value. The offense is also so absolutely bonkers that the fact that this is probably the worst defense since 2019 (or at least tied with 2020 and 2021) with the best and most expensive personnel just hasn't mattered. It might at some point. The Ravens are a very interesting puzzle to solve. But it's a good feeling nevertheless.

[J-ALL-DAY]

17 minutes ago, JIllg said:

So, I mostly enjoy Steve and Sam's PFF stuff, but the narrative that Brock has suddenly been playing better than he was during the first 5 games of the season is nonsense. Their company's inability to note Brock's big time throws in the first five weeks and his plays out of structure is a failure on PFF's part, not Brock's. Brock had no charted big time throws in the Steelers game, and that's just ludicrous, because for me there were at least 2 clear-cut ones in the second window cover 2 throw to Deebo and the back shoulder to Aiyuk for the TD. Plus, you have the spinning out of structure throw when Minkah had him dead to rights that you can do with whatever you want.

Guess what, guys? Brock's been awesome all season and the graininess of small sample sizes and internal biases bit ya. Happens to us all.

Brock has had the highest PFF grade since the bye, however. Along with the CPOE, that's just about every meaningful metric other than making Ruiz feel special that Purdy is tops at. This team is absolutely nuts on offense, but it is triply nuts because the QB is adding some serious value. The offense is also so absolutely bonkers that the fact that this is probably the worst defense since 2019 (or at least tied with 2020 and 2021) with the best and most expensive personnel just hasn't mattered. It might at some point. The Ravens are a very interesting puzzle to solve. But it's a good feeling nevertheless.

Brock Purdy got like a 76.9 grade for his performance against the Cardinals in week 4 and they had him down for one TWP and that was absolutely ridiculous. What their argument early on was how many TWP's Purdy had and that's why his grade wasn't high. Granted, he had some fumbles but this was always a stupid argument. 

You are right, they had their opinions on him before the season and were going to make sure they were right from beginning. Purdy has started to throw better down the field since his elbow has started to feel better but he's been great all season long. 

[JIllg]

4 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Brock Purdy got like a 76.9 grade for his performance against the Cardinals in week 4 and they had him down for one TWP and that was absolutely ridiculous. What their argument early on was how many TWP's Purdy had and that's why his grade wasn't high. Granted, he had some fumbles but this was always a stupid argument. 

You are right, they had their opinions on him before the season and were going to make sure they were right from beginning. Purdy has started to throw better down the field since his elbow has started to feel better but he's been great all season long. 

Like, last year Purdy absolutely fit the narratives they had for him to start this year. He was playing well, but at a roughly Garoppolean rate according to every metric including their own. Noting that Brock was being heavily lifted by scheme from a middling starter to what he was last year was pretty darn fair. And it would make sense that Shanahan could make a Garoppolo out of just about anything that didn't stink.

But this year Purdy hasn't been that guy all year. Even in the Vikings and Bengals losses for me, he was really trying to deal and maybe trying to do too much with literally no offensive line and a banged up receiving corps. He was rolling out there with a cast roughly equivalent to or worse than these QBs with bad casts and keeping us in the game while the defense blew chunks.

The Browns game was just a terrible game. Even the greats have one or so a season.

[J-ALL-DAY]

4 minutes ago, JIllg said:

Like, last year Purdy absolutely fit the narratives they had for him to start this year. He was playing well, but at a roughly Garoppolean rate according to every metric including their own. Noting that Brock was being heavily lifted by scheme from a middling starter to what he was last year was pretty darn fair. And it would make sense that Shanahan could make a Garoppolo out of just about anything that didn't stink.

But this year Purdy hasn't been that guy all year. Even in the Vikings and Bengals losses for me, he was really trying to deal and maybe trying to do too much with literally no offensive line and a banged up receiving corps. He was rolling out there with a cast roughly equivalent to or worse than these QBs with bad casts and keeping us in the game while the defense blew chunks.

The Browns game was just a terrible game. Even the greats have one or so a season.

Agreed, he was absolutely the best player on the offense through three quarters of both the Vikings and Bengals games. He was legitimately carrying the offense and we had some bad luck in the RZ that skewed folks opinions on him in those games. Now, he absolutely made some terrible throws and had a couple of bad decisions, but he was largely playing to the same level he has all season long. In fact, some of his best throws came from those two games. I do think it is perfectly fair to want to see him win and perform well in a got to have it drive when the team is down but he's been pretty much lights out since the bye week. 

Of course, Brock saying that CMC should be the MVP will be used against him on talk shows all week long lol. 

[jonnguy2015]

10 minutes ago, JIllg said:

 

The Browns game was just a terrible game. Even the greats have one or so a season.

 Browns also just have a very good defense and the weather conditions were terrible. Despite all that and missing CMC and Deebo, and having a banged-up Trent on the final drive, he still did enough to put them in a position to win

[oldman9er]

Love all that has been said in here lately, but still, I absolutely unequivocally do not GAF about any source of skepticism or disrespect over Purdy or the 49ers. 

It just truly means jack zip nothing. I only say this, because some fans here but mostly there get very bristled over these things. I don't understand why. We know what Purdy is and what the 49ers are. I think we are all loving this season. 

That is ALL that matters. 

[NinerNation21]

Ok, so I spent way too much time on this today but I created a spreadsheet of the last 10 MVP winners and their stats with Purdy and Prescott's extrapolated numbers for this year to see how close they are to past MVP type years.

I wanted to share a screenshot of it on here but Imagur is not working at the moment, so I will update it with the image later. 

Long story short, Purdy's season compared to the past 10 winners is better than Dak's by a little bit, but they're both middle of the pack or slightly lower compared to everyone else. They're also pretty even in a ton of categories.

The Average Stats of an MVP QB Over the Last 10 Years:

• CMP%: 66.9%
• Passing Yards: 4,510
• Passing TDs: 41
• Ints: 8
• Rsh TDs: 3
• Fmbls Lost: 4
• Combined TDs: 44
• Combined Turnovers: 12
• Y/Att: 8.23
• ADoT: 8.98

Purdy's Extrapolated Numbers:

• CMP%: 69.8% 🔼
• Passing Yards: 4,608  🔼 
• Passing TDs: 35
• Ints: 9
• Rsh TDs: 2
• Fmbls Lost: 2  🔼 
• Combined TDs: 37 
• Combined Turnovers: 11  🔼 
• Y/Att: 9.9  🔼 
• ADoT: 8.8

The up arrow shows which stats are above the average. 

Also, Tom Brady's 2017 MVP might be the least deserving MVP over the last 10 years. 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by NinerNation21

[J-ALL-DAY]

49 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

Ok, so I spent way too much time on this today but I created a spreadsheet of the last 10 MVP winners and their stats with Purdy and Prescott's extrapolated numbers for this year to see how close they are to past MVP type years.

I wanted to share a screenshot of it on here but Imagur is not working at the moment, so I will update it with the image later. 

Long story short, Purdy's season compared to the past 10 winners is better than Dak's by a little bit, but they're both middle of the pack or slightly lower compared to everyone else. They're also pretty even in a ton of categories.

The Average Stats of an MVP QB Over the Last 10 Years:

• CMP%: 66.9%
• Passing Yards: 4,510
• Passing TDs: 41
• Ints: 8
• Rsh TDs: 3
• Fmbls Lost: 4
• Combined TDs: 44
• Combined Turnovers: 12
• Y/Att: 8.23
• ADoT: 8.98

Purdy's Extrapolated Numbers:

• CMP%: 69.8% 🔼
• Passing Yards: 4,608  🔼 
• Passing TDs: 35
• Ints: 9
• Rsh TDs: 2
• Fmbls Lost: 2  🔼 
• Combined TDs: 37 
• Combined Turnovers: 11  🔼 
• Y/Att: 9.9  🔼 
• ADoT: 8.8

The up arrow shows which stats are above the average. 

Also, Tom Brady's 2017 MVP might be the least deserving MVP over the last 10 years. 

 

 

I think you should have adjusted Purdy's stats to 16 games instead of 17 games. That would have made the comparisons to the PY MVP's more valid. I know the last few years MVP's also played 17 games but the ones before that did not. Or compare Purdy's extrapolated numbers to the last two MVP's that also played 17 games. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]