The MVP race

[Nobellythrower]

5 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

I'd love to see Hurts playing with that Ravens Defense. Might be video game numbers.

He had a top 2 defense last year, hurts play offense not defense, he'd have to deal with less  on the flip side imagine lamar with a top 3 wr in brown, best wr2 and a wr1 caliber in smith,  swift in the backfield, with two hall of famers and the best line in the league, don't think they would lose a game let alone 4

[AngusMcFife]

4 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

Yes yes yes, the supporting cast argument. Tua, Josh, Dak, Brock are all surrounded by Scrubs.

I will give you Lamar having the ****tyiest of the 6 QB supporting cast. If Lamar was putting up 2019 MVP numbers you'd have no argument here. 4,000 yds and 25 TD,  is not that. Sorry. 

This Ravens team is closer to the 2000 Ravens team then they are 2019 MVP team Lamar carried on his back. Lamar isn't carrying this team, that Defense is! That's the point.

That's a bit harsh - the 2000 Ravens offense was straight trash! Didn't score a TD in 4 consecutive games. The 2023 offensive unit is top 5. 

[Nabbs4u]

1 minute ago, AngusMcFife said:

That's a bit harsh - the 2000 Ravens offense was straight trash! Didn't score a TD in 4 consecutive games. The 2023 offensive unit is top 5. 

To be fair, it's this years defense that is actually being compared to that 2000 Ravens Defense. Never suggested Lamar was Trent Dilfer. Just saying. 

[Thomas5737]

22 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

Lamar was Trent Dilfer.

Did now.

[Nabbs4u]

10 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Did now.

Now now Thomas, full quotes, full quotes.  🍺

[WFLukic]

Tbf I think Allen being in the discussion with an OC that was fired is a positive. He has been that good despite having a crap OC.

Allen on his own has more touchdowns than 25 teams and that's even including defensive and ST touchdowns. 

The turnover criticism is valid, but Allen also has the least sacks of any full-time starter and off the eye-test, definitely has the best ability at turning what would be a negative play (e.g. a big sack) into a neutral or positive play with his pocket presence and escapability.

Plus, a lot of his turnovers are arm punts or heaves down field. If it's 2 and 12 and he chucks it down field for a pick that's 50 yards, it's basically an arm punt just a down early. Compare that with a QB getting sacked for a loss of 6 there, and it's 99% they're punting anyway. It's just getting sacked looks pretty on the box score whereas the pick looks bad. For every criticism of his turnovers, there needs to be credit given for his ability to avoid sacks.

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

Strong disagree here, I'd have him at #1 by a decent margin.

He is also 4 TDs away from being in the top 5 all time for most TDs in a season. You want to include a QB with 24 total TDs but omit a RB with 21? There are 9 QBs with more passing TDs than Lamar has total.

So if you can forgive Lamar for not having the yards or TDs or having a top 5 passer rating I think we can forgive McCaffrey for whatever we're holding against him.

I’d have him #3 by a small margin behind Aiyuk and Trent but I could understand people having him as #1- but by a decent margin?

You can’t even stack the box against him because of everyone else. You’ve got the Shanahan offense effect on RBs (granted he’s shown he’s that dude without this offense), I think that’s a bit dramatic to say he’s a good bit better than Kittle, Deebo, Aiyuk, and Trent. Two of these guys have won NFC OPOW awards in their own right.

In terms of his TD numbers, he’s on pace for another 2-3 TDs, granted the Commanders are in full and obvious tank mode and so perhaps that’s why you’re attributing to him extra numbers? But his TDs are great and all, but he’s benefiting from a prolific offense. This isn’t like he’s carrying the unit for scores. It’s more Priest Holmes than it is LDT from a context perspective.

We’re literally seeing this same season in Miami the same Shanahan offense allowing for Moestert to get 21 TDs as well.

In terms of Lamar besides clearly being the best player on the field against a similar top 3 defense, he’s also 11th in most rushing yards ever by a QB. Which is higher than CMC’s current ranking of 14th in total TDs by a RB. Which doesn’t even account for Lamar’s impact on his rushing attack that shows up in RB after RB looking great when running alongside him. Lamar has his own Shanahan offense effect on RBs that isn’t explained in his stat line.

2023 Justice Hill -> 5.8 YPC
2023 Keaton Mitchell -> 5.9 YPC

Historically Gus Edwards has averaged over 5 ypc with Lamar (he’s on the decline in his burst this season), same with Dobbins rushing averages.

So sure 24 TDs isn’t guady, but what difference does it make if Lamar scores or if he hands it off to Gus for a 1 yard score? Lamar leads an offense that’s #4 in DVOA while having had to face some of the strongest defenses in the league all season.

While leading a team to more two score victories against teams with a winning record in NFL history (7) with games against two teams with winning records left on the schedule (though there’s no guarantee Cincy and Seattle hold on to a winning record either). I think when you look at most valuable player and not just stats, that’s Lamar’s argument over CMC, but even from a historical stat perspective, Lamar’s argument is in his historic rushing numbers in addition to the combination of rushing numbers to passing numbers.

No QB that has run for the kind of yards Lamar is on pace for has ever thrown for the kind of yards Lamar is on pace for. So historically speaking, CMC is doing something the NFL has seen before, the NFL has never seen a running QB thrive with as many yards/game as we’ve seen from Lamar this season. Typically they run because they’re not as proficient in passing, not dominate as a runner while also having a top 10-12 passing QB season to boot. Which with Lamar 15th in yards, 14th in TDs, and 8th in ANY/A, he’s closing in on a top 10 passing season.

So Lamar isn’t even the stat candidate and his stats from a historical perspective are still gaudy in the right areas.

[incognito_man]

Oh damn, didn't realize Allen has friggin 13 rush TDs, too. 

He should be higher on the list than he is 

[Thomas5737]

27 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

Now now Thomas, full quotes, full quotes.  🍺

So you think doubling the words on all of your posts will help to keep me from quoting things out of context?

28 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

Now Thomas, full quotes.  🍺

Dang, it works.

[Thomas5737]

5 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

So sure 24 TDs isn’t guady, but what difference does it make if Lamar scores or if he hands it off to Gus for a 1 yard score?

The stat which is a big part of the award for voters.

9 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

NFL has never seen a running QB thrive with as many yards/game as we’ve seen from Lamar this season.

Cunningham? In '88 he averaged 15 more yards passing per game and 13 less rushing and in '90 he averaged 7 more rushing yards and 7 less passing yards per game than Lamar. That was also a much tougher time to be a QB.

[Soggust]

3 hours ago, Soko said:

How RBs are treated with their second contracts has much more to do with their shelf life than it does their pay for play. Some people get it twisted, quite a few, actually. RBs are not inherently devalued for being RBs, they’re devalued going into their second contracts because of the cliff they typically fall off of. 

Elite RBs are extremely valuable. The problem with paying them is that they typically aren’t elite RBs for the duration of their contracts.

I'm not sure I agree.

PFF, for example, measures wins above replacement, similarly to baseball. I don't have a subscription, but getting recent examples demonstrates how little they consider RB value. 

QB Example - 1) Mahomes 3.70 ... 9) Herbert 2.52 
RB Example - 

Quote

• At his peak between 2018 and 2019, which he hasn’t been able to reach since due to injuries, McCaffrey was worth 0.25 PFF wins above replacement per season. In 2020 and 2021, he averaged 0.07 PFF WAR.

Like, it's not even remotely close. PFF is suggesting an average QB is worth 10x McCaffery's Peak.

Even compared to other positions, it's the same.

source

Quote

It is surprising (although if you’ve followed along, maybe less so) that the further away from the ball a player plays, the more valuable they appear to be. After quarterbacks, wide receivers, defensive backs and tight ends have the highest average WAR.

Now I get that PFF isn't the be all end all, but remember that the 49ers were literally in the super bowl a few years ago without CMC. In fact, they were 2nd in rushing yards and 1st in TDs in 2019. Now they are 4th in rushing yards and 2nd in TDs.

This RB is supposed to be so revolutionary to the 49ers that he deserves the MVP despite a similar performance in Carolina leading to a 5-11 record? I just don't buy the CMC argument, or any RB for that matter.

[AngusMcFife]

1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

Cunningham? In '88 he averaged 15 more yards passing per game and 13 less rushing and in '90 he averaged 7 more rushing yards and 7 less passing yards per game than Lamar. That was also a much tougher time to be a QB.

Not factored into Cunningham's passing and rushing stats are the massive amount of sacks he took (57 for 442 yards). 

Cunningham was second for MVP in 1988 and 1990, but it is clear Lamar's efficiency are vastly superior to Cunningham, who had low completion % and more INTs.

Bringing up Cunningham actually reinforces Lamar's candidacy. If Cunningham can be 2nd in MVP for two years with decent counting stats but poor efficiency, in which his team only won 10 games, then Lamar's 2023 season that matches Cunningham's counting stats but is vastly more efficient with much fewer sacks and INTs, and his team has 3 or 4 more wins, then that's a good case for Lamar. 

The strength of those Eagles teams was also the defense with Buddy Ryan. 

[Thomas5737]

28 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Not factored into Cunningham's passing and rushing stats are the massive amount of sacks he took (57 for 442 yards). 

So a more pressured QB is a negative?

35 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Cunningham was second for MVP in 1988 and 1990, but it is clear Lamar's efficiency are vastly superior to Cunningham, who had low completion % and more INTs.

Different eras. Cunningham was 5th in passer rating in 1990, Lamar is currently 8th.

36 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Bringing up Cunningham actually reinforces Lamar's candidacy. If Cunningham can be 2nd in MVP for two years with decent counting stats but poor efficiency, in which his team only won 10 games, then Lamar's 2023 season that matches Cunningham's counting stats but is vastly more efficient with much fewer sacks and INTs, and his team has 3 or 4 more wins, then that's a good case for Lamar.

Cunningham had 35 TD and 17 turnovers in 1990. Lamar is at 24 and 13.

 

41 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

The strength of those Eagles teams was also the defense with Buddy Ryan. 

In 1990 11 teams gave up less points than the Eagles (299). This season no team has given up less points than the Ravens (244).

[Soko]

36 minutes ago, Soggust said:

I'm not sure I agree.

PFF, for example, measures wins above replacement, similarly to baseball. I don't have a subscription, but getting recent examples demonstrates how little they consider RB value. 

QB Example - 1) Mahomes 3.70 ... 9) Herbert 2.52 
RB Example - 

Like, it's not even remotely close. PFF is suggesting an average QB is worth 10x McCaffery's Peak.

Even compared to other positions, it's the same.

source

Now I get that PFF isn't the be all end all, but remember that the 49ers were literally in the super bowl a few years ago without CMC. In fact, they were 2nd in rushing yards and 1st in TDs in 2019. Now they are 4th in rushing yards and 2nd in TDs.

This RB is supposed to be so revolutionary to the 49ers that he deserves the MVP despite a similar performance in Carolina leading to a 5-11 record? I just don't buy the CMC argument, or any RB for that matter.

The point isn’t a CMC point, but a RB value point. I wouldn’t have CMC in the MVP discussion at this point, but that’s independent of the over correction/misunderstanding people have for great running backs. 

Using SF as a microcosm is sort of disingenuous to that discussion. It’d be like saying WRs have no value because the Patriots won SBs without elite playmakers at receiver. Hell, you could use the Chiefs as arguments for both: the 2022 Chiefs had an MVP QB and nobody at WR, and they won a championship. Meanwhile the 2023 Chiefs have largely the same group, and have been struggling a lot offensively. You could use them to make a case for, or against, pricey WRs.

Some schemes are extremely [insert position here] friendly, or perhaps provide a different emphasis on other parts of the game (the Chiefs for example, won’t make as much use of an elite runner as a team like Tennessee or Atlanta would, for example). There’s more than one way to skin a cat, so to speak. 

Meaning, I’m not going to discount the 2019 49ers as a good, run first team, that largely functioned with a stable of backs (although Mostert isn’t exactly replacement level). But I’m not going to devalue a guy like Derrick Henry (younger days) or a healthy CMC because of that either. Same how I won’t use the 2022 Chiefs to devalue Justin Jefferson. Like, sure, we could say CMC didn’t win anything in Carolina, but let’s not pretend like Carolina was remotely a good team throughout most of his career there (plus injuries). If we’re having an honest discussion, then I wouldn’t have to say that I’m not saying an elite RB can carry the entire team with no help whatsoever. 

[Forge]

Do people think the line move more if CMC is missing a game as opposed to Purdy?