The MVP race

[Thomas5737]

1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

And John Harbaugh agrees with you! “It takes a team to win an MVP award”.

Grateful we have the team and FO and HC around him that we do. Especially that defense which is #1 PPG #1 yards per play #1 sacks #1 takeaways.

Hey…come to think of it we should probably bump that midseason thread asking whether the Browns are a historic defense, don’t you think? I mean they’re not even the best in their own division. That was a whacky one huh

It certainly takes a team to win an MVP award. You don't win unless you are in the playoffs. No one carries a team to the playoffs.

I personally never argued that the Browns defense was historic, I just said "think of what the team could have done if they fired Joe Woods sooner". That said, they are #1 in yards against. The Ravens defense has been great too but they haven't had to deal with 32 turnovers by their offense. That's neither here nor there, both have been great.

[MWil23]

1 hour ago, Nobellythrower said:

Lol bro be serious, best record in the nfl without his no.1 target, rb1 and his rb2, Thats why its mvp for most valuable 

So…? If it’s about value if you took Mahomes off the Chiefs they dont make the playoffs. If we are talking value here.

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

If your thought process is that Jackson deserves it because a previous winner that didn't deserve it won it, then I guess I can't disagree with ya.

There is still time to work on the resume, it won't put him ahead of Allen statistically but with a good running game (besides Lamar) and the best defense in the NFL they certainly could win out and Jackson could be awarded for the team effort. It doesn't really honor the award but it certainly could happen.

Which brings me back to my question. What would Jackson have to do over the final two games to make you think he’s worth winning the award?

Real talk. Is there anything within reason he could do that would make you feel his case is legit?

 

Like for example if he rips off 800 yds and 7 scores and 0 turnovers over the last two games, would you still question the numbers case or would you accept him as a “quality” MVP?

Would he be your #1 if all other candidates play per their normal pacing?

[Ray Reed]

16 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

So…? If it’s about value if you took Mahomes off the Chiefs they dont make the playoffs. If we are talking value here.

I also think we have the first case of his career this year where his weapons aren’t great, and honestly Mahomes and the Chiefs have looked pedestrian. In fact that offense has looked downright dreadful. If the “he can elevate his supporting cast” argument is in play, Mahomes hasn’t shown the ability to do that this year to the level that Lamar has in his career tbh. His defense is playing great, he has no weapons, and the offense looks bad. They’re 9-5. Lamar has made great defenses and no weapons look way better than this several times. There’s a really solid floor you can achieve offensively every time Lamar starts under center that no one else in this league can match. Straight up. Guys have had higher highs more frequently, but it’s funny how everyone looks pedestrian when they have scrubs at WR. Lamar just brings an instant offense with his unique play style.

I mean, Lamar’s offensive supporting cast this year is the best he’s had by far and this is without Andrews, JK Dobbins, and his main targets being a bunch of solid but not gamebreaking guys in OBJ/Nelson Agholor/Isaiah Likely/Rashod Bateman. Flowers is playing very well for a rookie IMO but who on this offense would you put on another team and say “yeah, we’ve gotta gameplan for that guy”?

Edited December 28, 2023 by Ray Reed

[Ray Reed]

21 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

It certainly takes a team to win an MVP award. You don't win unless you are in the playoffs. No one carries a team to the playoffs.

I personally never argued that the Browns defense was historic, I just said "think of what the team could have done if they fired Joe Woods sooner". That said, they are #1 in yards against. The Ravens defense has been great too but they haven't had to deal with 32 turnovers by their offense. That's neither here nor there, both have been great.

I teach Jim Schwartz’ nephew, and he’s told me several times this year that outside of the Tennessee job coming open, the family doesn’t think he’d take a HC gig. I think you all are safe for another year. It’ll be up to the Browns FO now to keep the defense going with limited cap resources now that Watson’s cap hit is going to skyrocket in the coming seasons  

[thrILL!]

34 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

So…? If it’s about value if you took Mahomes off the Chiefs they dont make the playoffs. If we are talking value here.

You're describing team MVP, not league MVP.   “Valuable” is such a misnomer when it comes to the award anyway but league MVP should be awarded to the best player in the league that season whether it’s QB, WR, DL, etc.  

[Thomas5737]

27 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Which brings me back to my question. What would Jackson have to do over the final two games to make you think he’s worth winning the award?

Real talk. Is there anything within reason he could do that would make you feel his case is legit?

 

Like for example if he rips off 800 yds and 7 scores and 0 turnovers over the last two games, would you still question the numbers case or would you accept him as a “quality” MVP?

Would he be your #1 if all other candidates play per their normal pacing?

I think a combination of things happening could vault him into an argument for #1. My opinion doesn't really matter but us fans and the media (voters) are huge with recency bias. If he is hot the final two games and Allen has a stinker or two and CMC gets shut down then a door opens for Lamar, Tua, Stafford I guess, Hill, Purdy, Dak, Hurts, Goff, hell If Mayfield throws for 8 TD and 800 yards over the next two games his final 4 games would capture some voters (maybe, media doesn't love him).

So there is a way that I could put him as my #1 (I still probably wouldn't admit it, he is a Raven lol). I don't know what they would take theoretically I'd also have to put those I have above him as having off games so it would take a bit of effort but it should all come out in the wash.

5 weeks ago I thought Stefanski winning COTY was a crazy thought. If you keep winning good things happen. The Ravens could finish hot and everyone will want to reward them. That would be a big boost for Lamar. If the Browns win out Stefanski will probably be a front runner for COTY. I don't truly believe either are the best at what they do but that doesn't matter because the buzz will be there for both and plenty of voters will be swayed.

To clarify Stefanski and Jackson have both been good this year, they aren't getting lucky I just wouldn't vote for them right now if the season ended today.

[Thomas5737]

4 minutes ago, thrILL! said:

You're describing team MVP, not league MVP.   “Valuable” is such a misnomer when it comes to the award anyway but league MVP should be awarded to the best player in the league that season whether it’s QB, WR, DL, etc.  

It isn't though.

Which is why everyone uses their own definition which means they can change it year by year and case by case.

[MWil23]

I mean, I’ve never really cared about hardware for players that’s not a team award, I really don’t care. I just chuckle with “total yards” comparing Peyton when he was a pocket passer and had a lot more passing attempts and somehow that’s equitable with QBR 

[diamondbull424]

3 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

I think a combination of things happening could vault him into an argument for #1. My opinion doesn't really matter but us fans and the media (voters) are huge with recency bias. If he is hot the final two games and Allen has a stinker or two and CMC gets shut down then a door opens for Lamar, Tua, Stafford I guess, Hill, Purdy, Dak, Hurts, Goff, hell If Mayfield throws for 8 TD and 800 yards over the next two games his final 4 games would capture some voters (maybe, media doesn't love him).

I get all that. I’m asking for something more concrete. The argument against Lamar from a stat perspective is seemingly that there isn’t any empirical data that he can point to that would represent his case for MVP.

So I’m specifically asking what type of empirical data would you need to see?

Again we’re assuming Allen ends up with 4,750 total yards and 45 total TDs (his current pace). We’ll also assume the Bills finish 1-1 and get the wildcard but not win the #2 seed.

We’ll assume that CMC closes with 2,190 total YFS and 24 total TDs. Hill gets 1,893 and 14 TDs.

Lamar currently has 4,143 total yards and 24 total TDs. Keeping this specific to Lamar. What type of empirical data (besides wins and perhaps offensive DVOA) would you need to see for Lamar to be your #1 MVP candidate?

You mentioned Lamar needing to get hot and Allen having stinkers. If we assume Allen doesn’t have stinkers, what would Lamar need to do to win? Whats the hypothetical statistical output you’re thinking would be sufficient a case?

Would he have to tie Allen in total TDs (something incredibly and highly improbable, virtually impossible) or would he have to simply hit a particular threshold of yards or TDs?

And if so, what are those thresholds if the above pacing ends up coming to fruition?

[Thomas5737]

6 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

I get all that. I’m asking for something more concrete. The argument against Lamar from a stat perspective is seemingly that there isn’t any empirical data that he can point to that would represent his case for MVP.

So I’m specifically asking what type of empirical data would you need to see?

Again we’re assuming Allen ends up with 4,750 total yards and 45 total TDs (his current pace). We’ll also assume the Bills finish 1-1 and get the wildcard but not win the #2 seed.

We’ll assume that CMC closes with 2,190 total YFS and 24 total TDs. Hill gets 1,893 and 14 TDs.

Lamar currently has 4,143 total yards and 24 total TDs. Keeping this specific to Lamar. What type of empirical data (besides wins and perhaps offensive DVOA) would you need to see for Lamar to be your #1 MVP candidate?

You mentioned Lamar needing to get hot and Allen having stinkers. If we assume Allen doesn’t have stinkers, what would Lamar need to do to win? Whats the hypothetical statistical output you’re thinking would be sufficient a case?

Would he have to tie Allen in total TDs (something incredibly and highly improbable, virtually impossible) or would he have to simply hit a particular threshold of yards or TDs?

And if so, what are those thresholds if the above pacing ends up coming to fruition?

2 losses to finish the season and I'll give him my vote (not that I have one).

He won't statistically have a better year than Allen so unless you want it to be about something other than what it is he probably can't do anything with your Allen projection. Just to let you sleep I'll say 756 total Yards, 7 total TDs and no turnovers.

[sdrawkcab321]

It’s flaccos 

[BetterCallSaul]

5 minutes ago, sdrawkcab321 said:

It’s flaccos 

I don’t see how it couldn’t be at this point. Either Flacco or JOK. Maybe Garrett. Outside chance it could be Ward, Kareem Hunt, or Emerson. Then again, Newsome has been great.

Man I would have a hard time picking MVP this year…but ultimately itll be Flacco drenched in gold after this season. 

[Soggust]

The Lamar argument is very simple and I think we are overcomplicating it.

He's the best player on the best team.

I am as big of a stat person as anyone else, and I personally think Dak/Purdy should be STRONG contenders still if not even ahead, but Lamar's case is really freakin' strong ngl. 

It was less impactful last week when we could say the 49ers were the best team. But as of now, the Ravens are the best team in football. I even scanned PFF trying to find a better score to make a MVP Kyle Hamilton case, for example, to discredit Lamar. But I can't. Lamar's leading the team (pretty sure).

I don't love it but I think I've come to be okay with it.

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

2 losses to finish the season and I'll give him my vote (not that I have one).

He won't statistically have a better year than Allen so unless you want it to be about something other than what it is he probably can't do anything with your Allen projection. Just to let you sleep I'll say 756 total Yards, 7 total TDs and no turnovers.

I appreciate the answer. Again I think Allen was #1 heading into the SF game.. and he’s still 1b for me. So it’s not like I’m entirely Lamar. It would be nice. But I also would like the idea of seeing Allen’s greatness recognized with an MVP and this might be his best chance.

However you seem to represent the empirical crowd and so I was genuinely curious what someone from that crowd would need to see for them to become “pro Lamar” so to speak.

I get that you don’t have a vote, however  logically speaking I’m sure many others in the media will have a similar perspective and might share a similar threshold. But again, appreciate the answer.