2024 Draft Debate and Discussion

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, SLCbear said:

Brock had (882) receiving yds as a true Freshman, (942) sophmore season, and (714) last season in only 10 games, and would have easily gone over 1000 in a full season. 

 Pitts BeST season was (770), Davis (871), and Hockenson (760) 

at age 18  BB outerformed all 3 of these guys' BEST season. And in their Freshman seasons,  these 3 were (73), (59) & (24) respectively...

 Brock is DiFFERENT⚡️ and he just turned 21 in December

 

Receiving yards (especially in college) aren’t a great barometer for who’s a good prospect moving into the and who isn’t. Here’s a random sample from 2011 showing the collegiate receiving yardage leaders:

How many of those guys have you never even heard of? Outside of Keenan Allen, none had any noteworthy success in the NFL, and the only two 1st round picks (Blackmon and Wright) were busts.

It’s neat that Bowers put up great numbers as a freshman and the other guys didn’t, but teams aren’t drafting freshmen - they’re drafting guys where they are when they come out. A more appropriate side-by-side would be to compare their stat lines in their final seasons in college:

Davis: 51-871-6 (11 games)

Pitts: 43-770-12 (8 games)

Hockenson: 49-760-6 (13 games)

Bowers: 56-714-6 (10 games) 

Pitts’ numbers blow everyone away there (with Kyle Trask at QB). Davis’ exceed those of Bowers too (with Sam Hollenbach (who??) at QB). Hockenson’s numbers were the worst but he also probably had the worst QB (Nathan Stanley). Meanwhile, Bowers had likely future top 10 pick Carson Beck in his last college season. Production-wise, Bowers is in those guys’ class production wise (a great place to be!), but he’s not ahead of them IMO.

Athletically, Davis and Pitts are head and shoulders above everyone else (Bowers has no verified numbers without working out at the combine or pro day).

Davis:

Pitts:

Bowers might match some of that athletically (I’ll be shocked if he runs 4.40 and I doubt he’s sub-4.5; he’s not touching Davis’ 33 bench reps), but he won’t exceed much if any of it, and certainly not all of it. 

Bowers is a great prospect. Nobody’s taking anything away from that at all. But, he’s not so much different from prior top TE prospects that you bypass comparably graded great prospects at other positions where you’re likely to see more of an overall impact to the team from where they are before the pick to where they’ll be afterwards to make sure you get him. Say you do take Bowers at 9 and effectively push Everett out of the regular lineup - you’re pushing out a guy who probably goes for 35-50 catches, 400-600 yards and 2-5 TDs in 2024. Even if Bowers were to go for Sam LaPorta’s mostly unprecedented rookie season (86/889/10) in 2024 the net gain is only the difference between the two, which is only 300-500 yards, where as an Odunze addition for instance with similar numbers is a much more significant net gain since he’s replacing a big bag of nothing at WR3.

No one will be upset if we add Bowers. But he’s not “Vontae Mack no matter what”, at least not for me. 

[SLCbear]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

Receiving yards (especially in college) aren’t a great barometer for who’s a good prospect moving into the and who isn’t. Here’s a random sample from 2011 showing the collegiate receiving yardage leaders:

How many of those guys have you never even heard of? Outside of Keenan Allen, none had any noteworthy success in the NFL, and the only two 1st round picks (Blackmon and Wright) were busts.

It’s neat that Bowers put up great numbers as a freshman and the other guys didn’t, but teams aren’t drafting freshmen - they’re drafting guys where they are when they come out. A more appropriate side-by-side would be to compare their stat lines in their final seasons in college:

Davis: 51-871-6 (11 games)

Pitts: 43-770-12 (8 games)

Hockenson: 49-760-6 (13 games)

Bowers: 56-714-6 (10 games) 

Pitts’ numbers blow everyone away there (with Kyle Trask at QB). Davis’ exceed those of Bowers too (with Sam Hollenbach (who??) at QB). Hockenson’s numbers were the worst but he also probably had the worst QB (Nathan Stanley). Meanwhile, Bowers had likely future top 10 pick Carson Beck in his last college season. Production-wise, Bowers is in those guys’ class production wise (a great place to be!), but he’s not ahead of them IMO.

Athletically, Davis and Pitts are head and shoulders above everyone else (Bowers has no verified numbers without working out at the combine or pro day).

Davis:

Pitts:

Bowers might match some of that athletically (I’ll be shocked if he runs 4.40 and I doubt he’s sub-4.5; he’s not touching Davis’ 33 bench reps), but he won’t exceed much if any of it, and certainly not all of it. 

Bowers is a great prospect. Nobody’s taking anything away from that at all. But, he’s not so much different from prior top TE prospects that you bypass comparably graded great prospects at other positions where you’re likely to see more of an overall impact to the team from where they are before the pick to where they’ll be afterwards to make sure you get him. Say you do take Bowers at 9 and effectively push Everett out of the regular lineup - you’re pushing out a guy who probably goes for 35-50 catches, 400-600 yards and 2-5 TDs in 2024. Even if Bowers were to go for Sam LaPorta’s mostly unprecedented rookie season (86/889/10) in 2024 the net gain is only the difference between the two, which is only 300-500 yards, where as an Odunze addition for instance with similar numbers is a much more significant net gain since he’s replacing a big bag of nothing at WR3.

No one will be upset if we add Bowers. But he’s not “Vontae Mack no matter what”, at least not for me. 

Catches, REC yds and TDs are all GrEAT barometers for TEs. WRs not so much.

 Also year after year consistency as well (Pitts a 1yr wonder and falling WELL short of NFL expectations), level of competition (Davis and Hockenson are out there) 

 BB dominated the best conference all 3 yrs he played, and was the best player on  the best team (top 3 at worst) in College fb...

 He dominated the SEC at age 18, 14TDs... who has EVER done anything like that ?? Then improved upon that production as a Sophomore. Junior season cut short and still won Mackey Award for a second time ...First player to ever win it twice.

 Besides all of this, when you watch the games, he STaNDs OUT EVERY SINGLE game... 

 Big Board

1. Caleb

2. Jayden

3. MHj

4a, b c & d Bowers Alt Nabers Rome (in that order IMO)

 It makes sense more sense to draft a WR or LT in the top 10 over a TE, bc a top 10 drafted TE is already making Top 5 TE money league-wide, so you don't have nearly the same rookie scale value as a WR or LT 

...but Alt and Nabers will be GONE, and a very good chance Rome is gone as well. That leaves BB, who will def be there !

No other college TE has ever produced like this for 3 straight yrs 

[AZBearsFan]

14 hours ago, SLCbear said:

Catches, REC yds and TDs are all GrEAT barometers for TEs. WRs not so much.

 Also year after year consistency as well (Pitts a 1yr wonder and falling WELL short of NFL expectations), level of competition (Davis and Hockenson are out there) 

 BB dominated the best conference all 3 yrs he played, and was the best player on  the best team (top 3 at worst) in College fb...

 He dominated the SEC at age 18, 14TDs... who has EVER done anything like that ?? Then improved upon that production as a Sophomore. Junior season cut short and still won Mackey Award for a second time ...First player to ever win it twice.

 Besides all of this, when you watch the games, he STaNDs OUT EVERY SINGLE game... 

 Big Board

1. Caleb

2. Jayden

3. MHj

4a, b c & d Bowers Alt Nabers Rome (in that order IMO)

 It makes sense more sense to draft a WR or LT in the top 10 over a TE, bc a top 10 drafted TE is already making Top 5 TE money league-wide, so you don't have nearly the same rookie scale value as a WR or LT 

...but Alt and Nabers will be GONE, and a very good chance Rome is gone as well. That leaves BB, who will def be there !

No other college TE has ever produced like this for 3 straight yrs 

The bolded part made me laugh. What you’re really saying is you have them:

4. Bowers

5. Alt

6. Nabers

7. Odunze

I would have your 5-7 in my 5-7 along with Daniels, and then Bowers in a group 8-12 just behind that graded very closely with Verse, Latu, Quinyon Mitchell and Fashanu, ahead of the next group with Turner, a few of the next tier of OTs, Brian Thomas, McCarthy and a few others. From there it comes down to need for me. We need a WR, but I don’t have one in my 8-12 tier. We don’t need a corner either, so I’m not taking Mitchell.  We don’t need a TE either (we have 2 good ones locked up for multiple years) so I’m probably not taking showers there. That leaves me the two edges or Fashanu at 9 assuming all my top 7 guys are gone there, and in a spot where I’m very comfortable trying to trade down.

Everyone has a guy though, and Bowers is yours. It’s all good - he’s a damn fine player. 

[dll2000]

Multi person drafts sims are available now to play with.   https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft

Hard to get Bears though.  

[AZBearsFan]

Been weird for anyone else to not get as much enjoyment out of running draft sims this year? With only 3 picks after the presumed Caleb pick there’s only so much you can do, and my desire to look for late round gems when we have no selections in the final 135 picks of the draft is minimal.

Champagne problems I suppose.

[HuskieBear]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Been weird for anyone else to not get as much enjoyment out of running draft sims this year? With only 3 picks after the presumed Caleb pick there’s only so much you can do, and my desire to look for late round gems when we have no selections in the final 135 picks of the draft is minimal.

Champagne problems I suppose.

i mostly play around with them to see our picks at 9. whos available, what kind of trades are there, whos on the board in the teens/twenties kinda things.

[dll2000]

3 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Been weird for anyone else to not get as much enjoyment out of running draft sims this year? With only 3 picks after the presumed Caleb pick there’s only so much you can do, and my desire to look for late round gems when we have no selections in the final 135 picks of the draft is minimal.

Champagne problems I suppose.

It's more fun if you trade down at 9.   Gives you variety and different outcomes.   

Drafting Caleb and Odunze gets old real fast when it isn't real.  

[Bigbear72]

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

It's more fun if you trade down at 9.   Gives you variety and different outcomes.   

Drafting Caleb and Odunze gets old real fast when it isn't real.  

I am 100% sure that we will NOT draft both Williams and Odunze. Why, you ask? Because we all here feel like that is what we would do (well most of us). One of those picks will be someone that we did not expect. 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

1 minute ago, Bigbear72 said:

I am 100% sure that we will NOT draft both Williams and Odunze. Why, you ask? Because we all here feel like that is what we would do (well most of us). One of those picks will be someone that we did not expect. 

It's going to be Daniels and CB Arnold and you'll be able to hear my skull blast clean off my body from wherever it is you call him. 

In seriousness, they hit RT last year, and it was a clear and obvious need.  I think if they were to stay at 9 and not draft WR or OT or DL it would be a real shock.  

Trying to wrap my head around Daniels and I see so many familar flaws to Fields with coverage reading, decision making, but in a sligther package.  I just don't get the appeal of him, so cue him storming the league next year and making Mahomes look like Trubisky. 

[dll2000]

54 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

I am 100% sure that we will NOT draft both Williams and Odunze. Why, you ask? Because we all here feel like that is what we would do (well most of us). One of those picks will be someone that we did not expect. 

Odunze may not be there.  He never is if you do a mock with fans drafting.

But fans always draft WRs early.  They are more exciting than linemen.  

 

[Epyon]

8 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Been weird for anyone else to not get as much enjoyment out of running draft sims this year? With only 3 picks after the presumed Caleb pick there’s only so much you can do, and my desire to look for late round gems when we have no selections in the final 135 picks of the draft is minimal.

Champagne problems I suppose.

My big thing if we sit at 9 is trying to trade future capital to get an early 2nd rounder. 

I actually highly doubt Poles makes a move like that but there's just so many potential targets in that 25-40ish range and it's the only way I feel like I can get us all 3 of wr/center/and one of an edge, 3t, or OT. 

Also I keep trying to manuever into snagging the Iowa punter later. 

 

[dll2000]

6 minutes ago, Epyon said:

My big thing if we sit at 9 is trying to trade future capital to get an early 2nd rounder. 

I actually highly doubt Poles makes a move like that but there's just so many potential targets in that 25-40ish range and it's the only way I feel like I can get us all 3 of wr/center/and one of an edge, 3t, or OT. 

Also I keep trying to manuever into snagging the Iowa punter later. 

 

Take the Iowa punter at 9 at this point.  

I am just ready for it to start. 

[Madmike90]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Odunze may not be there.  He never is if you do a mock with fans drafting.

But fans always draft WRs early.  They are more exciting than linemen.  

 

Yeah I have been in two GM Mocks on this site and both time the worst scenario has happened where all 4 QBs, Alt, all 3 WRs are the first 8 picks...meaning we are looking at Fashanu or Turner at #9 if we don't move down...now of course actual NFL teams will see things very differently but it is interesting how quickly you lose out on either a top WR or a potential trade down for a QB before a lot of QB needy teams are OTC.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

5 hours ago, BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW said:

It's going to be Daniels and CB Arnold and you'll be able to hear my skull blast clean off my body from wherever it is you call home.

In seriousness, they hit RT last year, and it was a clear and obvious need.  I think if they were to stay at 9 and not draft WR or OT or DL it would be a real shock.  

Trying to wrap my head around Daniels and I see so many familar flaws to Fields with coverage reading, decision making, but in a sligther package.  I just don't get the appeal of him, so cue him storming the league next year and making Mahomes look like Trubisky. 

 

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, Epyon said:

My big thing if we sit at 9 is trying to trade future capital to get an early 2nd rounder. 

I actually highly doubt Poles makes a move like that but there's just so many potential targets in that 25-40ish range and it's the only way I feel like I can get us all 3 of wr/center/and one of an edge, 3t, or OT. 

Also I keep trying to manuever into snagging the Iowa punter later. 

 

I’ve been toying a little with trading down to 13-18 then trading up into the late 1st with the 2 I get in that trade plus one of our 2025 2s and one of our 2025 later picks (since we have 3 6s for now).