2024 Draft Debate and Discussion

[AZBearsFan]

Just now, SLCbear said:

Agree with you post except for these 2 statements

We are not desperate. If we don't like what he is currently fetching, we don't have to trade him

Every team will always try to lowball and then the price eventually moves up, doesn't mean they think he sucks. If they think he sucks, they wouldn't offer ANYthing for him 

Honest question - if Poles ties his own future to Williams by drafting him 1st overall in April, do you actually think that Williams will sit behind the QB he drafted him to replace? Or do you think he’ll take whatever he can get for Fields and use that to get the most he can to put around the QB to whom he’s tying his future? There’s really no question, right? It’s obvious. 

[SLCbear]

18 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I couldn’t disagree with you more on just about all of that, tbh. 

By doing this you’d be under preparing both quarterbacks and making it more difficult for either to succeed. In your hypothetical the only “win” from keeping Fields is if he plays really well to start the season, and this makes that harder. 

If Fields gets that opportunity and Fields balls out then we will have completely wasted the most valuable draft asset any team has had except for whatever we might get for CW in trade later, which would be largely offset by the fact that we’d still be on the hook for a crap ton of dead money from his fully guaranteed rookie contract if we trade him away.

Is it an actual possibility? Sure. Someone could create this incredibly messy and conflict-laden situation for themselves. But the likelihood Poles actually chooses this option amongst all the available options is incredibly unlikely. Doing what maybe everyone but you expects (either trading Fields or trading the pick) would not be “conduct[ing] our business according to past models or crusty old NFL common sense notions” either - it would be applying actual human common sense to a situation that certainly calls for it.

His value on the trade market is what the market is willing to bear. That’s how markets work. Poles isn’t going to bamboozle some other GM here with some Three Card Monty. He’s trying to build a contending football team that’s a desirable destination franchise for free agents and draft picks alike. Jerking around what is pretty unquestionably the most popular and respected player in his locker room amongst the players because he’s not overwhelmed with what the market might bear to do something that will be pretty unpopular in the locker room to begin with (trade that guy away) would be as polar opposite of acting to build what he’s trying to build as possible. 

Dude , you keep straw man arguing  

I never said Poles had to be overwhelmed by return for JF, nor am I 'expecting' Poles to have 2 high profile QBs on the same roster, nor is CW the ONLY QB IN THIS DRAFT 

Can I see the rest of the league trying to lowball us for Fields ? YES !!! 

Can I see the rest of the league upping their lowball offers when they see we are serious about going into season with both QBs ? YEs. 

Can I see a scenario in which Poles keeps JF AND Drafts a qb ? YESSS 

Is this the perfect situation, or am I only expecting this to happen ? No.

Will having 2 qbs definately fracture the lockerroom ? No.

Does either player agent have ANY leverage ? NOO

Is drafting a qb, because JF has underperformed expectations, jerking JF around ? NO. Its actually telling him that we still believe in him or we would  have already shipped him off for ANY ol return. Keeping JF means we believe in him. 

 Killing me with the strawman's  ha ha 

 

[SLCbear]

32 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

 

1. If Fields gets that opportunity and Fields balls out then we will have completely wasted the most valuable draft asset any team has had except for whatever we might get for CW in trade later, which would be largely offset by the fact that we’d still be on the hook for a crap ton of dead money from his fully guaranteed rookie contract if we trade him away.

2. Is it an actual possibility? Sure. Someone could create this incredibly messy and conflict-laden situation for themselves. But the likelihood Poles actually chooses this option amongst all the available options is incredibly unlikely. Doing what maybe everyone but you expects (either trading Fields or trading the pick) would not be “conduct[ing] our business according to past models or crusty old NFL common sense notions” either - it would be applying actual human common sense to a situation that certainly calls for it.

3. His value on the trade market is what the market is willing to bear. That’s how markets work. Poles isn’t going to bamboozle some other GM here with some Three Card Monty. He’s trying to build a contending football team that’s a desirable destination franchise for free agents and draft picks alike. Jerking around what is pretty unquestionably the most popular and respected player in his locker room amongst the players because he’s not overwhelmed with what the market might bear to do something that will be pretty unpopular in the locker room to begin with (trade that guy away) would be as polar opposite of acting to build what he’s trying to build as possible. 

1. Uh, no you trade JF not the rookie. JF has 7 more seasons left of football. I think you still have not wrapped your head around this inevitably. 

2. The 'actual human common sense' approach is taking a wait and see approach, only making moves when absolutely HAvE to. 

3. No, we determine his value ! At least for now. If we don't like the current market, then F the current market and make it change or wait for a new one. We are in a perfect position of strength to set JFs trade value, at least for now 

[Epyon]

11 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

I will be honest with you man...you are the most fanatical poster on here when it comes to this debate...I think everyone can at least somewhat see it from either side...you seem incapable of doing so and feel the need to rubbish one to big up the other...

And you are by far the most fanatical/delusional Fields supporter.... for seemingly no discernible reason that you have ever articulated. Feel free to actually defend that position anytime. Seriously.

As I said, I'm not opposed to other QB options. Draft Maye, draft Daniels, or Penix.... Hell, jump into the FA market if really think that's the solution and can find an actual upgrade there.... But don't, with a straight face, tell me you have ANY faith that a guy who has been a career bottom tier QB in the NFL for 3 entire years.... a guy who has been outplayed by such dominating forces as Mitch Trubisky and Marcus Mariota is somehow the answer for us, when the reality is that he's a gargantuan risk to the franchise at this point, given both the monetary and opportunity costs of retaining him.

If he stays it goes into 4 possible outcomes:

1. You don't resign him, and he sucks.... Which means you wasted 2-3 more years (if you 5th year then tag him)... Probably aren't in a good enough position to draft a replacement (IF there's even a replacement in the draft worth taking)....then have to trade all your future draft capital moving up to get a new QB right as all your actually good players are up for contracts. The team declines in talent via losing good draft picks to FA and having no capital to replace them, unless the rookie QB can put the team on his back.

2. You do resign him, and he sucks. Same as #1 but you waste even more time waiting for his contract to have an out, and lose even more of the actual talent you do have because you're wasting money on Fields.

3. He plays well, but never good enough to get you there. For reference, this is "Kirk Cousins".... and arguably worse than him just completely busting outright because you get stuck in a nigh inescapable pit of mediocrity. Sorry I want Superbowls, not occasional wildcards.

4. He plays well enough to win a superbowl and develops into a top 10 QB

 

Now handicap those 4 options, knowing what you know about him right now, and seeing what he is in the NFL.  What % chance do you think #4 is possible?  For me, his CEILING is #3, because he'd need Elon Musk and Nasa joining forces to build him a space shuttle if he wants too get from where he is, all the way up to where Kirk Cousins is as a QB, and that's STILL a level where everyone is getting fired, it's just going to take a lot longer to get there.

[Madmike90]

7 minutes ago, Epyon said:

And you are by far the most fanatical/delusional Fields supporter.... for seemingly no discernible reason that you have ever articulated. Feel free to actually defend that position anytime. Seriously.

Yeah that's it buddy

[AZBearsFan]

1 minute ago, SLCbear said:

Dude , you keep straw man arguing  

I never said Poles had to be overwhelmed by return for JF, nor am I 'expecting' Poles to have 2 high profile QBs on the same roster, nor is CW the ONLY QB IN THIS DRAFT 

Can I see the rest of the league trying to lowball us for Fields ? YES !!! 

Can I see the rest of the league upping their lowball offers when they see we are serious about going into season with both QBs ? YEs. 

Can I see a scenario in which Poles keeps JF AND Drafts a qb ? YESSS 

Is this the perfect situation, or am I only expecting this to happen ? No.

Will having 2 qbs definately fracture the lockerroom ? No.

Does either player agent have ANY leverage ? NOO

Is drafting a qb, because JF has underperformed expectations, jerking JF around ? NO. Its actually telling him that we still believe in him or we would  have already shipped him off for ANY ol return. Keeping JF means we believe in him. 

 Killing me with the strawman's  ha ha 

 

Re-read your own posts, then my responses to them (as well as those of others). I’m not sure you know what a strawman argument is.

-Are you not continually advocating that keeping Fields while also drafting Williams is a good plan? That’s what my posts are addressing (i.e. not a strawman argument) and saying is a bad idea, and then explaining why it’s a bad idea on multiple levels.

-Do you really think drafting Fields’ replacement but then not allowing him to go somewhere where he’ll actually get a chance to be something more than CW’s placeholder is anything other than jerking him around? My response directly to that premise (i.e. not a strawman argument) is that doing so is 100% jerking him around. By drafting his replacement you’re telling him you don’t believe he’s the future. You draft the other guy because you think he’s the future. If he’s the future, then Fields can’t be, no? Frankly, keeping such a polarizingly popular player in the locker room would be a disservice to Williams in your scenario too. More frankly, Poles clearly has a ton of respect and admiration for Fields, and because of that I think if he moves on he’ll want to get Justin to a place where he has a real chance to succeed long term. 

I think you’re mistaken about who has leverage here. When it comes to trading Fields away, Poles has very little. Most notably, time is against him. Teams know he’s likely replacing him with Williams so they can wait him out. You’re not drafting Williams with the intention of staying with Fields. Even if that were the case (it would be crazy), nobody outside Chicago will believe it to be the case, so Poles isn’t gaining anything against the market there.

The potential trade market for Fields is a limited one to begin with. 15-20 teams aren’t in the market for a new starting QB. Some of the rest already have their own young guy in the wings. Some others will sign bridge guys in FA like Garoppolo, Tannehill, Mayfield, Minshew, Brissett, etc. More of the others also have a pick in the top 5 and at least 2 of them will draft their own rookie QB early in R1. Of those teams left after all that, you still have to work past that a QB like Fields (largely unproven, highly unique skill set that will need a pretty customized playbook) isn’t going to be a fit for everyone. Realistically there are only maybe 2-3 teams that Poles probably can trade Fields to and expect any return at all. 

[SLCbear]

26 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Honest question - if Poles ties his own future to Williams by drafting him 1st overall in April, do you actually think that Williams will sit behind the QB he drafted him to replace?  

Tied to Williams ? eh probably not, but certainly not out of the question either. I can easily see a scenario in which it plays out that way.

 Is this Poles plan ? NO.

Could the varying, moving parts fall in this fashion ? YES. 

 The only scenario in which you do NOT draft a QB  AND keep Fields, at all costs,  is if you have a homerun, can't miss prospect.

Again, alot of this can get sorted out along the way, this is what pre-draft screening is for,

and CW is not the only QB in this Draft 

 

[AZBearsFan]

14 minutes ago, SLCbear said:

1. Uh, no you trade JF not the rookie. JF has 7 more seasons left of football. I think you still have not wrapped your head around this inevitably. 

So you think if Fields stays in this scenario where we also draft Williams and then balls out, meaning plays like the franchise QB we’ve been waiting on for most of our entire lifetimes, you think Poles will then trade him away because in some pre-determined timeline inside your head he will only play until… 2031 or 2032?

I mean, wow. Truly.  

[dll2000]

59 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I couldn’t disagree with you more on just about all of that, tbh. 

By doing this you’d be under preparing both quarterbacks and making it more difficult for either to succeed. In your hypothetical the only “win” from keeping Fields is if he plays really well to start the season, and this makes that harder. 

If Fields gets that opportunity and Fields balls out then we will have completely wasted the most valuable draft asset any team has had except for whatever we might get for CW in trade later, which would be largely offset by the fact that we’d still be on the hook for a crap ton of dead money from his fully guaranteed rookie contract if we trade him away.

Is it an actual possibility? Sure. Someone could create this incredibly messy and conflict-laden situation for themselves. But the likelihood Poles actually chooses this option amongst all the available options is incredibly unlikely. Doing what maybe everyone but you expects (either trading Fields or trading the pick) would not be “conduct[ing] our business according to past models or crusty old NFL common sense notions” either - it would be applying actual human common sense to a situation that certainly calls for it.

His value on the trade market is what the market is willing to bear. That’s how markets work. Poles isn’t going to bamboozle some other GM here with some Three Card Monty. He’s trying to build a contending football team that’s a desirable destination franchise for free agents and draft picks alike. Jerking around what is pretty unquestionably the most popular and respected player in his locker room amongst the players because he’s not overwhelmed with what the market might bear to do something that will be pretty unpopular in the locker room to begin with (trade that guy away) would be as polar opposite of acting to build what he’s trying to build as possible. 

Trying to work and skim the thread at same time.   This had me stop and cackle out loud for a bit.  

 

[SLCbear]

2 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Re-read your own posts, then my responses to them (as well as those of others). I’m not sure you know what a strawman argument is.

 

I don't need to re-read anything. I clearly stated what your straw man's were. 

[Epyon]

4 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

It’s semantics and relative to expectations, but I wouldn’t call Fields a bust at all. EJ Manuel was a bust. Kyle Boller was a bust. Christian Ponder was a bust. Jake Locker was a bust. Dwayne Haskins (RIP) was a bust. Paxton Lynch was a bust. Johnny Manziel was a bust. Cade McNown was a bust (shudders). To me a bust is a highly drafted guy who’s either entirely out of the league in 3-4 years or a complete afterthought. That’s not Fields at all. Fields is pretty well established to be a starting caliber QB in the NFL (if he wasn’t he wouldn’t have any trade value of consequence at all this offseason, right?) and still may end up being significantly better down the road than that whether you believe in him or not.

I would say a more fair characterization of Fields would be to say that he’s been a disappointment in Chicago. It doesn’t matter what label is put on him I suppose - I just don’t think “bust” fits him. 

It's a binary question for a starting QB. Can you win a Superbowl with the guy or not? If the answer is no, he's wasting space.

 

37 minutes ago, SLCbear said:

We are not desperate. If we don't like what he is currently fetching, we don't have to trade him

We are the only franchise in the NFL who has never had a franchise QB (well, maybe Cutler), and we're actually coming off a rebuild that actually seems to be going well.... The competitive window is opening.... or would be, if we had a quarterback capable of winning a superbowl. If that isn't desperate, I don't know what is.

All keeping Fields on the team after bringing in another guy does is divide the locker room and cause distractions.

[SLCbear]

7 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

1. Are you not continually advocating that keeping Fields while also drafting Williams is a good plan? That’s what my posts are addressing (i.e. not a strawman argument) and saying is a bad idea, and then explaining why it’s a bad idea on multiple levels.

2. Do you really think drafting Fields’ replacement but then not allowing him to go somewhere where he’ll actually get a chance to be something more than CW’s placeholder is anything other than jerking him around? My response directly to that premise (i.e. not a strawman argument) is that doing so is 100% jerking him around. By drafting his replacement you’re telling him you don’t believe he’s the future. You draft the other guy because you think he’s the future. If he’s the future, then Fields can’t be, no? Frankly, keeping such a polarizingly popular player in the locker room would be a disservice to Williams in your scenario too. More frankly, Poles clearly has a ton of respect and admiration for Fields, and because of that I think if he moves on he’ll want to get Justin to a place where he has a real chance to succeed long term. 

3. I think you’re mistaken about who has leverage here. When it comes to trading Fields away, Poles has very little. Most notably, time is against him. Teams know he’s likely replacing him with Williams so they can wait him out. You’re not drafting Williams with the intention of staying with Fields. Even if that were the case (it would be crazy), nobody outside Chicago will believe it to be the case, so Poles isn’t gaining anything against the market there.

4. The potential trade market for Fields is a limited one to begin with. 15-20 teams aren’t in the market for a new starting QB. Some of the rest already have their own young guy in the wings. Some others will sign bridge guys in FA like Garoppolo, Tannehill, Mayfield, Minshew, Brissett, etc. More of the others also have a pick in the top 5 and at least 2 of them will draft their own rookie QB early in R1. Of those teams left after all that, you still have to work past that a QB like Fields (largely unproven, highly unique skill set that will need a pretty customized playbook) isn’t going to be a fit for everyone. Realistically there are only maybe 2-3 teams that Poles probably can trade Fields to and expect any return at all. 

1. I am advocating that when the dust settles and we are not seeing a proper return for JF that we need not FEAR having 2 high-profile QBs on the same roster. Catastrophising that the 2 can ONLY rip the lockerroom apart. You and others sound like a knitting circle 🧶 😜

2. Holding onto JF means we believe in him. This is the message that will be conveyed to JF. How is believing that someone, who is wired right AND works his *** off, can still breakout jerking them around ??

 3. No, teams are not gonna 'wait poles out'. This is year 4, the final year before big contract. Interested teams  will want JF NOW to get him ready for season and have a full season to evaluate.

4. Unable to glean your point. If only 2 or 3 teams interested, so what. We  Only need 1.

[G08]

1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

Now I also think if Fields lands in the right place he will still go on to have a really good career...he is still clearly a starter in this league and would start right now at multiple different teams...

I guess sometimes there doesn't need to be a winner and a loser in a situation...if Caleb was great here and Field was good somewhere else much like Stafford-Goff both sides could live with it...

Well said and it is what's giving me a sense of peace at this point. We are in a luxurious position; if we don't find any issues with Caleb Williams, draft him and trade Justin Fields to the highest bidder. It will suck because I love the kid, but it's the best move IF everything checks out.

Conversely, if there are red flags on Williams and we aren't comfortable taking him? Trade #1 to the highest bidder and build around Justin Fields.

[SLCbear]

24 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

So you think if Fields stays in this scenario where we also draft Williams and then balls out, meaning plays like the franchise QB we’ve been waiting on for most of our entire lifetimes, you think Poles will then trade him away because in some pre-determined timeline inside your head he will only play until… 2031 or 2032?

I mean, wow. Truly.  

All of these are GOOD problems to have !

Uh, the lights finally came on for our uber-talented qb in year 4 and we still have him on the roster  ...Oh and we also have a stud rook on the roster  OMG HOW AWFUL  

 And yes JF is done in 7 maybe 8yrs MAX. 7-8 more would give him the longest shelf-life EVER !  Its not my timeline, its human biology for all rushing QBs, windows for RBs even shorter. Is this MY timeline ? No. 

Edited January 16 by SLCbear

[Bigbear72]

2 minutes ago, SLCbear said:

2. Holding onto JF means we believe in him. This is the message that will be conveyed to JF. How is believing that someone, who is wired right AND works his *** off, can still breakout jerking them around ??

Respectfully, this may be the single most ridiculous thing that I have read on this forum. How does spending the most valuable pick in the draft on another QB show that we believe in JF as opposed to giving him and the team more talent elsewhere. This is simply nonsense. Respectfully.