Trevor Lawrence and the Jags - Year 4 (T-Law is what he is)

[NYRaider]

5 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

Yeah.  It's just a shame that they're squandered the first year of this "window" on...well...whatever trainwreck this season has started off as.  By ignoring glaring problems from last year, and doubling down on some of them instead.  🤷‍♀️

But yeah.  BTJ + Engram should hopefully be a solid duo to build around for Lawrence as targets.  I think Kirk is probably gone after this year, unless he suddenly really turns things around.  And Gabe Davis is one of those..."well...he's the sort of big target Trevor clearly prefers...and he's willing to sign in Jacksonville (not common)".  But they should've realized a wildly inconsistent/disappearing act WR signing a decent sized contract to come to and play in Florida is a script they've seen before.  Too many players in Jaguars history who sign those sort of deals and treat it like a "vacation".

And that aspect of the situation is an often overlooked contributor to why it's so darn hard to put the right supporting pieces all in place around a guy like Lawrence, all at once.  The Jaguars are a bit of a laughingstock, and have been for a very long time.  Not a preferred destination as a franchise or as a city.

I think a lot of that is on Pederson though, they started 8-3 last year and looked like they were going to coast to another division title and then things just fell apart. 

I've heard rumors that Kirk could be moved this season. Davis is the definition of mid and not someone that can be relied upon week to week. They've consistently overpaid on JAGs at WR with Zay, Kirk, and now Davis.

And I agree that the Jaguars started with an empty cupboard and that has been overlooked. Prior to drafting him they had gone 6-10, 5-11, 1-15 and then went 3-14 with the Meyer debacle in his rookie season. They were able to win the division and win a playoff game after two consecutive seasons where they had the #1 pick and then started 8-3 the following year before things fell apart. All in all though back to back winning seasons after only one in the previous 13 years is pretty significant progress. 

There has clearly been a culture shift in Jacksonville as they now expect to be competitive with Lawrence. Pederson did a good job of helping to create that shift but they need to find a coach that can take it to the next level and help Lawrence return to form.

 

[Tugboat]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

I think a lot of that is on Pederson though, they started 8-3 last year and looked like they were going to coast to another division title and then things just fell apart. 

I've heard rumors that Kirk could be moved this season. Davis is the definition of mid and not someone that can be relied upon week to week. They've consistently overpaid on JAGs at WR with Zay, Kirk, and now Davis.

And I agree that the Jaguars started with an empty cupboard and that has been overlooked. Prior to drafting him they had gone 6-10, 5-11, 1-15 and then went 3-14 with the Meyer debacle in his rookie season. They were able to win the division and win a playoff game after two consecutive seasons where they had the #1 pick and then started 8-3 the following year before things fell apart. All in all though back to back winning seasons after only one in the previous 13 years is pretty significant progress. 

There has clearly been a culture shift in Jacksonville as they now expect to be competitive with Lawrence. Pederson did a good job of helping to create that shift but they need to find a coach that can take it to the next level and help Lawrence return to form.

 

 

Yeah.  This is the stuff that has me still a believer.  There are so many spurts of play that look truly commanding and superb.  There are so many stupid things constantly standing in his way.

 

I look at it similarly.  Where Doug was a great hire to re-center the franchise after the Urban disaster.  Team really turned a corner and Lawrence even balled out for a while.  But it's becoming very clear that Pederson is out of answers already.  Some things went wrong, and he just lost any handle on it.  Turned things vaguely in the right direction though after the careening nonsense of Urban.  Just terrifying if they're going to be able to get the next step right...and when they'll even be able to do it.  Or have to let it just fester as it goes badly for the rest of the year.

 

And it's really not even just the "empty cupboards" of a bad team.  It was just masses of incompetence and ignorance and a team that simply is not an attractive destination for desirable Free Agents.  It's rough.  They have to outdraft the average team to make any real inroads.  Unfortunate reality.

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, Tugboat said:

Yeah.  This is the stuff that has me still a believer.  There are so many spurts of play that look truly commanding and superb.  There are so many stupid things constantly standing in his way.

I look at it similarly.  Where Doug was a great hire to re-center the franchise after the Urban disaster.  Team really turned a corner and Lawrence even balled out for a while.  But it's becoming very clear that Pederson is out of answers already.  Some things went wrong, and he just lost any handle on it.  Turned things vaguely in the right direction though after the careening nonsense of Urban.  Just terrifying if they're going to be able to get the next step right...and when they'll even be able to do it.  Or have to let it just fester as it goes badly for the rest of the year.

And it's really not even just the "empty cupboards" of a bad team.  It was just masses of incompetence and ignorance and a team that simply is not an attractive destination for desirable Free Agents.  It's rough.  They have to outdraft the average team to make any real inroads.  Unfortunate reality.

For all of the hate he receives he has still been one of the top 10 most productive passers in the league over the last two seasons. If Lawrence didn't hurt his ankle in the Bengals game the Jags likely find a way to win and their entire trajectory is different right now. 

The same thing happened for Pederson in Philadelphia too. But man the schedule makers didn't do them any favors this year, has any team ever had to start the year against four conference opponents that made the playoffs the year prior, with three of those games being on the road?

Honestly though good teams build through the draft, the Jags are like the Raiders in that they've drafted so poorly that they've been forced to over compensate by paying bad players in free agency.

[GHARMON9]

On 9/27/2024 at 9:05 PM, Frankie2Gunz said:

I would hardly call that a great cast.  Ridley and Kirk are #2's at best, Jones is a bum, Engram is a slightly above average TE, Etienne is an above average back, their Oline is putrid and their D is terrible.  He has some weapons but calling his supporting cast great is just nonsense. 

Dont you ever quote me a year later lol. And i still disagree. Jaguars fans were happy with the cast when people thought highly of him . Cant have it both ways. 

[notthatbluestuff]

 

Why doesn't Trev just be more confident?

[notthatbluestuff]

 

[Blackstar12]

1 minute ago, notthatbluestuff said:

 

At home vs Gus Bradley is going to bump up his numbers temporarily this week. 😂 

[notthatbluestuff]

Just now, Blackstar12 said:

At home vs Gus Bradley is going to bump up his numbers temporarily this week. 😂 

Rest assured I won’t be bumping the thread in that case.

[LinderFournette]

On 9/30/2024 at 9:57 AM, notthatbluestuff said:

 

Why doesn't Trev just be more confident?

Hard to be confident when your entire OL is very mediocre. Cam Robinson has regressed hard.   Harrison is having a bad 2nd year.  There's also probably a lack of confidence in the play caller

[MagicMT]

36 minutes ago, LinderFournette said:

Hard to be confident when your entire OL is very mediocre. Cam Robinson has regressed hard.   Harrison is having a bad 2nd year.  There's also probably a lack of confidence in the play caller

Not saying he has a good O-line (he doesn't) or a good coach (Press Taylor or Pederson are terrible at play calling) but man look at what Jayden Daniels is doing in Washington. Commanders have a poor O-line and Kingsbury (who has been decent this year) and they're making magic with what they have. 
You shouldn't need for everything to be perfect around you to be a decent QB. 
Lawrence isn't in the best situation but at some point he has to play good enough to elevate his teammates and he's just not doing that. 

[Vladimir L]

57 minutes ago, LinderFournette said:

Hard to be confident when your entire OL is very mediocre. Cam Robinson has regressed hard.   Harrison is having a bad 2nd year.  There's also probably a lack of confidence in the play caller

Burrow Stafford have had terrible lines what do they do get the ball out fast

 

commanders don’t have a great line but they get the ball out in 2.5 sec and people respect jd ability to run so they don’t rush him

 

wasnt Lawrence a great runner too a 4.5-4.6 guy?

 

daniel jones has even looked better than him

[Soko]

”Yeah his receivers are getting wide open, and yeah this is his third year with the same play caller, and yeah the team is strong rushing, but he’s not confident in the line” doesn’t fly for a guy who you just paid $55M/year. You’re not paying him that much money under the guise that he gets a pass if everything isn’t perfect around him.

The team’s freaking 0-4, I don’t want to hear that your $275M QB, wide open receivers, strong run game, and offensive minded coach can’t win a single game because TL isn’t confident in the line.

[NYRaider]

3 minutes ago, Soko said:

”Yeah his receivers are getting wide open, and yeah this is his third year with the same play caller, and yeah the team is strong rushing, but he’s not confident in the line” doesn’t fly for a guy who you just paid $55M/year. You’re not paying him that much money under the guise that he gets a pass if everything isn’t perfect around him.

TLaw is 31st in completion % from a clean pocket this year ahead of only Anthony Richardson

[Forge]

1 hour ago, notthatbluestuff said:

 

To be clear, this is an extremely niche stat that tells us very little. 

One, it's man coverage. Yes, it needs to be man coverage to give us a real separation score. But for most teams, thats probably going to be less than half their dropbacks. Per PFF, for Jacksonville, they are dead last in the league facing man coverage. It won't get any better this week because the Colts are one of the most zone heavy teams in the league. 

Secondly, you typically would only gauge separation on targeted throws. So all this really tells us is that when they face man coverage and Trevor targets them, they are usually wide open.  But that's a pretty limited sample and that's a whole lot more unknown to their play than known.  PFF has BTjr and Kirk as running 30 and 33 routes against man coverage this year. 

[NYRaider]

https://www.the33rdteam.com/whats-wrong-with-trevor-lawrence-this-season/