Potential First Round Targets for the Steelers

[JustPlainNasty]

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

Even outside of that, this is something I always take into account when scouting:

Rome Odunze - I got him top 13 in my big board

Troy Fautanu - Top 35 on my board

Ja'Lynn Polk - Top 60

Jalen McMillan - Top 125

Roger Rosengarten - Late 7th/Priority UDFA

That's offensively, when you add in defense and Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui are top 100 prospects you start to think that there's just so much talent around him it's just a matter of try not to fail.

I wouldn't worry too much about that. Judge the player first and foremost on his technique, his ability.  Now if he's sitting back in a pocket all day with no pressure and fades from pressure when he does see it , or never making NFL like throws because his WRs are always wide open or the offense schemes him up so unlike anything he will ever see in the NFL than be concerned that you aren't seeing what you need to see. 

Geno Smith is a good example for me, I struggled to find him throw any NFL type throws when he was at West Virginia and with all the hype he received I was a big doubter. There was ONE throw that I saw that said to me NFL type throw, I can still picture it right now but everything else was of little value to make a positive judgement on him.  You can say he's a decent QB now but it only took 10 years of NFL experience to form that and not to be hating but is he still even a top 16 QB?

Theres a top QB right now that makes it similarly concerning to judge. 

To be fair, Patrick Mahomes was one of my favorite evaluations Ive ever done, I wrote up the longest summary on him that I ever took the time to do on my website. However, it was difficult to rate him systematically because he played in such chaos. They basically never blocked for him at Texas Tech and he would just run around and make things happen. Funny that still sort of rings true today, but I never felt Pat faded from pressure which is the characteristic that bothered me most about a lot of those Oklahoma guys...(with the exception of Baker) they all seem to do it. Our boy Landry Jones was one of the first & possibly the worst to make me see and realize it. Kyler similarly did it and the ex-Oklahoma now USC qb does it as well. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by JustPlainNasty

[warfelg]

1 hour ago, JustPlainNasty said:

I wouldn't worry too much about that. Judge the player first and foremost on his technique, his ability.  Now if he's sitting back in a pocket all day with no pressure and fades from pressure when he does see it , or never making NFL like throws because his WRs are always wide open or the offense schemes him up so unlike anything he will ever see in the NFL than be concerned that you aren't seeing what you need to see. 

 

It’s something I’ve just always looked at. Even if the QBs mechanics and everything look good, but we keep seeing WRs making big time plays in terms of going up to catch balls I get worried. 

The way I look at it: Penix is fringe starter at best IMO. He’s gotten boosted by the offense around him. His WRs seem to make (in games Ive watched) two types of catches: highlight reel and wide open. So I look at what those happen and it’s either they obliterated the defender or Penix was running around. 

That leads me to a process where the WRs help the QB, so I got to ignore the play basically and look at just the QB. 

To give you the situation we’re in - I’ve avoided bashing Kenny too much because when you look at tape under Canada, yea guys are awesome but your also running into defensive winning boxes and you’ve got 3 pass catchers within 10 yards of each other. How can you correctly judge players with an offense that does that? 

I feel like the inverse applies to Penix. The offense is so good, how much of this play is actually his quality. 

Lastly - Panic’s Indiana tape is worse than Nix’s Auburn tape. And if that Auburn tape is part of the problem for Nix then it sure as hell should be for Penix. 

[armsteeld]

14 minutes ago, warfelg said:

It’s something I’ve just always looked at. Even if the QBs mechanics and everything look good, but we keep seeing WRs making big time plays in terms of going up to catch balls I get worried. 

The way I look at it: Penix is fringe starter at best IMO. He’s gotten boosted by the offense around him. His WRs seem to make (in games Ive watched) two types of catches: highlight reel and wide open. So I look at what those happen and it’s either they obliterated the defender or Penix was running around. 

That leads me to a process where the WRs help the QB, so I got to ignore the play basically and look at just the QB. 

To give you the situation we’re in - I’ve avoided bashing Kenny too much because when you look at tape under Canada, yea guys are awesome but your also running into defensive winning boxes and you’ve got 3 pass catchers within 10 yards of each other. How can you correctly judge players with an offense that does that? 

I feel like the inverse applies to Penix. The offense is so good, how much of this play is actually his quality. 

Lastly - Panic’s Indiana tape is worse than Nix’s Auburn tape. And if that Auburn tape is part of the problem for Nix then it sure as hell should be for Penix. 

Penix's Indiana tape was not that bad. His OL was almost as bad as Colorado's. I was a huge Penix fan so I've done extensive work on him. Bo Nix was trash at Auburn. He was similar to Jalen Hurts when he played at Alabama. Both were great athletes that couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with a shotgun from 5 yards away. 

[armsteeld]

11 hours ago, JustPlainNasty said:

At the end of last season I was fascinated by a few of the guys on Missouri's defense. Two of their Db's as I recall and the LB. Found them when I was studying Isaiah McGuire. 

Also that corner from Toledo intrigued me as well. 

They have a perfect 5 Tech for the Steelers in Darius Robinson who is listed at 6'5 295. Tyrone Hoppers is a solid physical LB. Jaylon Carliss is that big physical Safety who covers well and they have CB Kris Abrams-Drayne. I learned them by also watching McGuire.

[JustPlainNasty]

1 hour ago, armsteeld said:

Penix's Indiana tape was not that bad. His OL was almost as bad as Colorado's. I was a huge Penix fan so I've done extensive work on him. Bo Nix was trash at Auburn. He was similar to Jalen Hurts when he played at Alabama. Both were great athletes that couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with a shotgun from 5 yards away. 

My recollection doesnt agree with that. 

The problem i saw with Nix at Auburn was recklessness, trying to do wayyy too much and that Auburn team needed his fire but it also needed a steadier hand. His traits were always transferrable imo. 

Penix, I recall not being fascinated, another running around qb. I checked out what the hype was all about but didn't see the QB.  Sounds like he is a lot more QB these days but here we are talking about how he has "fallen off" or probably more just like reality.

 

 

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by JustPlainNasty

[armsteeld]

@JustPlainNasty I don't recall Penix being a scrambler. I think that's a weakness of his. Now he was running for his life behind that Indiana OL! Penix is more Tua in that he's a rhythmic pocket passer. For his career he has a 63.2% completion percentage. 

[jebrick]

For any college QB, ignore the stats.  Just watch them throw.  You want to see them throw into tight windows. Throwing jump balls is more about the WR then the QB. Throwing to wide open receivers shows you nothing unless they miss it ( Penix!!).  See if they make actual reads or just following the system.  See if they can throw in the pocket.  See what happens when they have to make a game winning drive or just bring their team back.  Do they fold or make the throws.  Still good decisions or panicking?

 

  Some QBs can show me everything I need to see in one game.  I might go back and look at other games but Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson and Stroud I saw one game and though they would do well in the NFL.  I think Carson Beck is the same.

Penix misses too many throws to open receivers.  By open I mean no one around them.  I do not trust his injury history.  I would not trust him to be a backup at this point.

Edited December 1, 2023 by jebrick

[mwalker]

8 hours ago, armsteeld said:

@JustPlainNasty I don't recall Penix being a scrambler. I think that's a weakness of his. Now he was running for his life behind that Indiana OL! Penix is more Tua in that he's a rhythmic pocket passer. For his career he has a 63.2% completion percentage. 

Agree. He has a really accurate arm, decent pocket presence, but he isn't a scrambler.
I think he hits windows with timing and accuracy better than in QB in the draft.

[warfelg]

3 hours ago, mwalker said:

Agree. He has a really accurate arm, decent pocket presence, but he isn't a scrambler.
I think he hits windows with timing and accuracy better than in QB in the draft.

Penix was a scrambler though where his legs were a weapon. Pre knee injuries he was getting 6 yards per carry. Since the injuries he’s getting about two. He was a runner in the way Ben was early in his career. Issue is he moves like over the hill Ben before his NFL career starts. 

[bigben07MVP]

For the tape grinders I would love an assessment on Kalen Deloach is a NFL prospect. He was one of my favorite players for FSU this year. ILB with great closing speed. Had 7 sacks from ILB spot which is impressive. I have not seen him mentioned highly as a draft prospect yet but I would love for the Steelers to take a shot on him. I think he might have to transition to safety or WLB in the NFL unfortunately.

 

[JustPlainNasty]

17 hours ago, armsteeld said:

@JustPlainNasty I don't recall Penix being a scrambler. I think that's a weakness of his. Now he was running for his life behind that Indiana OL! Penix is more Tua in that he's a rhythmic pocket passer. For his career he has a 63.2% completion percentage. 

Not saying he was Lamar Jackson but he wasnt Bailey Zappe by any stretch of the imagination. 

I dont have in depth notes on him, I just did some summary notes. Looks like the 2020 PSU game was all I did. 

"Throws high a good bit. Footwork would be questioned . Appears to throw 3/4 arm but can throw from odd angles. Touch is a question. Seems to whip it / throw hard a lot. Has running ability. Questionable 2pt conversion beat PSU , incorrect call but won game. Accuracy stats better than actual accuracy. Stood in vs pressure but also did not read pressure well."

Thats some very base stuff from early in his career. I don't usually get too involved with play by play notes on early yr class men. I honestly haven't watched him in depth this year. The only thing Ive noticed from this year is his throwing motion makes it look like he's throwing a shot put to be blunt. I know he's lefty, but I dont think I've ever thought that once when I've watched Tua. 

Much of what Im giving you guys on this years prospects is more like observations from afar. Haven't been able to get too involved. Sorry for that. Ive really only looked around a bit for centers, corners and linebackers and at Fuaga cause his movement ability / suddenness onto 2nd level fascinated me..

 

Some notes on Nix, one game from 2019, 21 &22 : "Accuracy not great. Has some touch and a pretty good arm. Threw 50 yards on line going left against body, was incomplete but.Has some crazy throws, but accuracy is an issue. 3rd qtr throw vs LSU ridiculous Favre like just less accurate. / 2021 @ UGA : Escapability is insane , R Wilson/Manziel like./2022 vs UCLA : Throw on move pretty good. Decent lil whip. Accuracy and touch ? decent play action, ok mobility. Gets a lil shaky w pressure has good mobility. Very nice 56 yd in air pass for TD, perfect location and good touch drop right in bucket. + Feet can get out of whack at times, low/short throws in mid to short range. Three quarter arm on occasion. Pretty comfortable throwing on the move. +. Gritty tough runner, dive head first for 1st down vs 3 defenders +."

My summary note on him was escapability.  

Little history look back. Those notes are untouched, just copy pasted. Let me know if any of that rings true on either guy. 

 

[AFF]

In terms of targets, can’t go wrong with some combo of OL/DL/DB/maybe WR and/or ILB.

Free agency/cap clearing will help determine that.

[3rivers]

1 minute ago, AFF said:

In terms of targets, can’t go wrong with some combo of OL/DL/DB/maybe WR and/or ILB.

Free agency/cap clearing will help determine that.

lots to happen next year, no idea what they do. I expect dionte to be traded as well as chuks, but they might not be able to get anything for chuks unless he plays again and does play decently for a change. 

 

[JustPlainNasty]

2 hours ago, 3rivers said:

lots to happen next year, no idea what they do. I expect dionte to be traded as well as chuks, but they might not be able to get anything for chuks unless he plays again and does play decently for a change. 

 

I think Chuks has draft pick value, it may only be 6th or 7th but his salary is not horrible. He will likely start wherever he goes if somebody is buying, we got a 4th for Dotson but he didnt cost much salary wise. I think a 5th would be my hope.

I would trade Diontae, and Im not just hating. Its his final year of his contract , are you really gonna want to pay him for another 4 year deal? I dont feel that. 

We are probably gonna pay Pat and as long as hes healthy hes worth roughly 15-16 mill in todays market i guessing. 

One question for me is what they try to do with Cams deal. Do they honor it as is? Do they agree to an extension and what will that look like ? His cap hit is 22 million roughly and dead money is i think 6-7 million. His play is worth more than 6-7 million but will it be worth 22 million? I think Id write up a 3 yr deal. Spread that money out over the 3yrs. I think he could give you 2 more decent yrs but will he want to once that 2nd year rolls around. He could be Calais Campbell. 

[AFF]

16 minutes ago, JustPlainNasty said:

I think Chuks has draft pick value, it may only be 6th or 7th but his salary is not horrible. He will likely start wherever he goes if somebody is buying, we got a 4th for Dotson but he didnt cost much salary wise. I think a 5th would be my hope.

I would trade Diontae, and Im not just hating. Its his final year of his contract , are you really gonna want to pay him for another 4 year deal? I dont feel that. 

We are probably gonna pay Pat and as long as hes healthy hes worth roughly 15-16 mill in todays market i guessing. 

One question for me is what they try to do with Cams deal. Do they honor it as is? Do they agree to an extension and what will that look like ? His cap hit is 22 million roughly and dead money is i think 6-7 million. His play is worth more than 6-7 million but will it be worth 22 million? I think Id write up a 3 yr deal. Spread that money out over the 3yrs. I think he could give you 2 more decent yrs but will he want to once that 2nd year rolls around. He could be Calais Campbell. 

Yea you can fetch a 6th or so from some team for Chuks especially if they draft a QB high and want a RT that can be a placeholder for a year so the new guy doesn’t get killed.

Pat will get $12-$14 mill based on the recent contract of Kmet and Njoku.

Im on the side of ripping the bandaid off for Cam…that $16 mill can grab you 2 solid starters with decent year 1 cap hits who can help the team for year.

What will the Steerlers do?….Im guessing an extension as you said.