Week 15: Bengals (5-8) at VIKINGS (10-3)

[vike daddy]

4 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

But that’s a different conversation. Just like it would have been had he thrown it to Carter, and Carter dropped it. 

The ultimate point about Keenum, is that he’s failing to recognize receivers wide open down field. This wasn’t the first time, it’s actually happening on nearly a weekly basis. For what ever reason, whether it’s Shurmur’s route designs, the receivers running great routes, or defenses making mistakes, we are seeing these opportunities present themselves nearly every week, and when we start playing teams like New Orleans, Los Angeles, Carolina, etc. in the playoffs. If these opportunities present themselves then, you can’t afford to miss them. 

thank you.

[vikingsrule]

2 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

But that’s a different conversation. Just like it would have been had he thrown it to Carter, and Carter dropped it. 

The ultimate point about Keenum, is that he’s failing to recognize receivers wide open down field. This wasn’t the first time, it’s actually happening on nearly a weekly basis. For what ever reason, whether it’s Shurmur’s route designs, the receivers running great routes, or defenses making mistakes, we are seeing these opportunities present themselves nearly every week, and when we start playing teams like New Orleans, Los Angeles, Carolina, etc. in the playoffs. If these opportunities present themselves then, you can’t afford to miss them. 

I agree, he's done well enough in the regular season. But to your point, he's got to capitalize on easy points and there seems to be a weekly throw that should have gone for 6.

It hasn't hurt the team yet but the playoffs will be different. Can't miss those points given that every game will be grind until the end. 

[CriminalMind]

3 hours ago, SemperFeist said:

A quarterback is supposed to work his progressions from deep to short, Keenum didn’t do that.

wait, this is not necessarily true, and basically its false that a QB is "suppose" to do this.

Its based on numerous factors.

[Worm Guts]

Just now, vike daddy said:

but i'm not being critical of the player. i posted one play and brought up the point that he does seem to repeat this behavior - miss the open receiver at times. miss throwing to him, that is. we've seen it with Thielen too, and Diggs.

the dude isn't perfect. so by definition, it means it's fair to discuss his imperfections too. and the purpose of doing so is in hoping he will improve on them.

He isn't perfect, but he wasn't signed to be a franchise QB either.  With Keenum, I'm probably going to be happy that he gave us 20-23 performance with 2 TD's as opposed to focusing on the plays he didn't  make.

He's not Aaron Rodgers, but he's the best we got for now.  And I think that was made clear with how uncomfortable Teddy looked in his few snaps.

[vike daddy]

Just now, Worm Guts said:

 With Keenum, I'm probably going to be happy that he gave us 20-23 performance with 2 TD's as opposed to focusing on the plays he didn't  make.

i'm happy with him too, extremely so.

but as we get in to the playoffs, we won't be playing lousy teams like the Bengals every week, or at all. so it's proper to discuss what we need to do to be a better, more opportunistic team.

do you think wide open receivers and not throwing to them is not discussed in Viking team film reviews?

 

that's how i see it.

[CriminalMind]

8 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

But that’s a different conversation. Just like it would have been had he thrown it to Carter, and Carter dropped it. 

The ultimate point about Keenum, is that he’s failing to recognize receivers wide open down field. This wasn’t the first time, it’s actually happening on nearly a weekly basis. For what ever reason, whether it’s Shurmur’s route designs, the receivers running great routes, or defenses making mistakes, we are seeing these opportunities present themselves nearly every week, and when we start playing teams like New Orleans, Los Angeles, Carolina, etc. in the playoffs. If these opportunities present themselves then, you can’t afford to miss them. 

Every QB does this, Rodgers did this last night as well. Didn't see the whole NE/PITS game but its very likely both Brady & Ben did this as well.

This won't be Case's last time and it will happen to every QB.

[VIKINGS101011]

It was so awesome to see Teddy back in there even if he threw an INT. Such a feel good moment.

[vike daddy]

Just now, VIKINGS101011 said:

It was so awesome to see Teddy back in there even if he threw an INT. Such a feel good moment.

he certainly has the team's and the fans' support!

[SemperFeist]

2 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

Every QB does this, Rodgers did this last night as well. Didn't see the whole NE/PITS game but its very likely both Brady & Ben did this as well.

This won't be Case's last time and it will happen to every QB.

Every QB also throws interceptions, that doesn’t excuse the mistakes when they occur. Rodgers, Brady, Roethlisberger, etc. all have a much greater track record of finding these open receivers. 

Even if Keenum was hitting on a couple, and missing a couple, it wouldn’t stand out the way that it has. But he’s not seeing any of them. 

[Worm Guts]

5 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

i'm happy with him too, extremely so.

but as we get in to the playoffs, we won't be playing lousy teams like the Bengals every week, or at all. so it's proper to discuss what we need to do to be a better, more opportunistic team.

do you think wide open receivers and not throwing to them is not discussed in Viking team film reviews?

 

that's how i see it.

I would hope they do. It just seem to me there has been an unusual focus on Keenum's mistakes in this forum compared to other players.

[vike daddy]

Just now, Worm Guts said:

It just seem to me there has been an unusual focus on Keenum's mistakes in this forum compared to other players.

nah. and just because a tendency in his behavior is pointed out (with the hope it improves) doesn't mean the guy is even being criticized. and it certainly doesn't mean he should be replaced or anything like that.

[CriminalMind]

6 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Every QB also throws interceptions, that doesn’t excuse the mistakes when they occur. Rodgers, Brady, Roethlisberger, etc. all have a much greater track record of finding these open receivers. 

Like I said previous, in a similar discussion.... is there a stat that actually shows that Case "missing the open guy" is more prevalent then Rodgers/Brady/Ben ?

I don't know of one, and it would be extremely complex to decipher that.

Sure Case is overall not as talented as Brady/Ben/Rodgers, that's obvious ... but its likely not due to "missing the open guy" more/less frequently.

[SemperFeist]

15 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

Like I said previous, in a similar discussion.... is there a stat that actually shows that Case "missing the open guy" is more prevalent then Rodgers/Brady/Ben ?

Is there a stat that shows he isn’t! Ultimately who cares what those other QBs are doing? 

When Brady/Rodgers/Roethlisberger, etc miss an open target it’s still a mistake. It’s still leaving points on the field. These players get the benefit of the doubt due to their body of work, something Keenum doesn’t have.

Every player makes mistakes, but that doesn’t excuse the mistake. And like all players who make mistakes, you’d like to see them fix those mistakes, or at least make progress towards fixing those mistakes. I’m not looking for Keenum to see 100% if these plays, but seeing a couple would be nice. 

[Worm Guts]

15 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Is there a stat that shows he isn’t! Ultimately who cares what those other QBs are doing? 

When Brady/Rodgers/Roethlisberger, etc miss an open target it’s still a mistake. It’s still leaving points on the field. These players get the benefit of the doubt due to their body of work, something Keenum doesn’t have.

Every player makes mistakes, but that doesn’t excuse the mistake. 

The issue is that it can be misleading when attempting to evaluate Keenum's level of play.  A mistake is a mistake and he should attempt to fix them, but if we don't know how his mistakes compare to the elites, then it's hard to know if we can even reasonably expect fewer of them.

[JDBrocks]

2 minutes ago, Worm Guts said:

The issue is that it can be misleading when attempting to evaluate Keenum's level of play.  A mistake is a mistake and he should attempt to fix them, but if we don't know how his mistakes compare to the elites, then it's hard to know if we can even reasonably expect fewer of them.

Nah. I think this is something that you can look at in a vacuum. A miss is a miss, and it stands out on tape.

 

I guess the way to look at it would Air yards per attempt, right? The higher that number is the more often they are throwing the ball down the field and hitting big plays. Elite guys typically have better AYPA, regardless of offensive scheme.

Keenum's average Completed Air Yards this season is 5.8, and his average intended Air Yards is 8 (https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-completed-yards). Both of which are relatively low. I think a ton of that is because of how effective the screen game has been, but I think that we can all recognize that hitting a couple of those really obvious big plays would drive that number up dramatically.

I haven't been overly concerned with his deep ball accuracy to be honest. It's the short/mid game that is troublesome (see Diggs bounce int and the throw to Diggs in the endzone against Carolina). 

Anyhow, I think that it is quite fair to judge Keenum on missed opportunities, especially as we get closer to watching him play in the postseason.