Who is cementing their HOF status this year?

[scar988]

18 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

Throwing out rookie years, here is 1 WR who is nowhere close to the HOF compared to Mike Evans. Can you guess who it is??

WR Anonymous 

9 seasons, 3 Pro Bowls, 2x All Pro, NFL receptions leader, 2x SB champion

• Receptions- 775
• Yards- 10,488
• TDs- 62

Mike Evans

9 seasons, 4 Pro Bowls, 0 All Pro, 1 SB champion

• Receptions- 681
• Yards- 10,451
• TDs- 80 

This just says to me that Rod Smith probably should be in the HOF discussion.

[AngusMcFife]

10 hours ago, FrantikRam said:

The other six are Marino, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady and Mahomes. I could craft an argument that the last five there are the greatest QBs to ever play and they all happened to play during his career. And with most of those guys gone now, scoring is down. So I think it was mostly bad luck to be playing at the same time as those guys.

If you think that all the greatest QBs played in one era, that's a sign that you are not contextualizing their production correctly. 

[stl4life07]

1 hour ago, Soko said:

Player A: 3,320 passing yards, 61.4 completion percentage, 21 passing TDs (4.6 TD%), 9 INTs (2.0 INT%), 6.62 ANY/A, 90.9 passer rating. 

Player B: 3,315 passing yards, 63.5 completion percentage, 24 passing TDs (5.2 TD%), 8 INTs (1.7 INT%), 6.53 ANY/A, 94.7 passer rating. 

Guess which one is elite, HOFer Matthew Stafford, and which is Baker Mayfield?

Which one has played the toughest schedule? Stafford. 

[scar988]

10 hours ago, FrantikRam said:

The other six are Marino, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady and Mahomes. I could craft an argument that the last five there are the greatest QBs to ever play and they all happened to play during his career. And with most of those guys gone now, scoring is down. So I think it was mostly bad luck to be playing at the same time as those guys.

 

This is the same argument I make for Matt Ryan in the Hall of Fame. (That being said, I agree Stafford probably belongs in there too.)

[seminoles1]

8 minutes ago, scar988 said:

This is the same argument I make for Matt Ryan in the Hall of Fame. (That being said, I agree Stafford probably belongs in there too.)

Matt Ryan's resume blows Stafford's out of the water right now.

[FrantikRam]

39 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

If you think that all the greatest QBs played in one era, that's a sign that you are not contextualizing their production correctly. 

 

I think it's a consensus that Manning/Brady/Brees are all time greats regardless of era though, and probably Rodgers too. If you make a list of top ten QBs and be honest with yourself, half that list all played in the same era, and the other half did not. I also said I could craft an argument, not that I would make said argument.

[FrantikRam]

9 hours ago, Forge said:

I agree with you that there is some bad luck in play here, but mainly because I think we are looking at a situation where Stafford was maybe a HOF talent that had his enshrinement robbed by the years of ineptitude of the Detroit franchise. He was just an after thought. 

The 40 TD seasons is cool, but kind of arbitrary. His career is largely set upon bulk numbers which I think a lot of people view as somewhat empty in some regards (there's a reason the stats padford nickname exists). So I think he absolutely has to play like 4 more years after this one to separate himself with a bulk numbers since he almost certainly won't have sufficient personal accolades. I do think that there is a point where bulk stats can get you in for voter. 

And we do have to hold these things such as a lack of high end elite seasons and all pros against guys. We are talking HOF, best of the best, and I don't know how many people they are going to be willing to put in from this stretch. I can't imagine that we are going to put in like 10 guys from this last 20 years. So where is he on that list? 

Brees never won MVP, but he won OPOY twice (finished second 3 other times). He was a second team all pro 4 other times besides the first team all pro he had. He finished second in MVP voting 4 times.  Stafford's resume is pretty blank with those type of accolades and true high end finishes. It's crazy that Stafford's 2011 season was basically regarded with like a pat on the back and an "atta boy", but it really feels like it was. He didn't even make the pro bowl (I think  he went on a tear after the pro bowl rosters were picked).  Stafford's cupboard is crazy barren besides a comeback player of the year. Heck, he's only been player of the week 4 times and never player of the month (that's not to say that particular accolade is worth anything in terms of HOF, but I think it really just puts into perspective how people viewed Stafford in his career...Matt Ryan was player week 11 times, player of the month 3 times. Big Ben 19/1. Rivers 10/4. Hell, Kirk Cousins has been player of the week 7 times and player of the month 3 times and he shares very similar per game rate stats with Stafford). 

I think Stafford is probably closer a Big Ben than Brees, but you can't  put Stafford in over Ben right and I'm not sure Ben is a HOF guy.  Ben has better bulk numbers (he played more games) which should even out,  but he won a second super bowl and was in the playoffs a lot more (though we can debate whether his performance in the playoffs was overwhelmingly positive or not).  If Stafford doesn't put some distance between them bulk numbers wise, you have to give priority to the second super bowl, I would think. I think Matt Ryan's MVP  probably gets more emphasis than a super bowl win when evaluating a career (there are a lot more bad QBs who started and won a super bowl than who won MVP) and he ran through the same gauntlet of QBs yet still got those accolades. Stafford will catch him in some of the bulk numbers over the next two years, but he's going to have to put some distance between them.  Ryan was largely just a good QB but not a great one so I don't think he's a HOFer either, but I think for the next couple of years, his case is probably stronger.  I think Stafford was the better player between he and Eli, but two big super bowl wins for Eli with MVPs and a Walter Payton man of the year and I honestly feel like Eli gets in before Stafford (eli also has the narrative advantage, if we are being honest). 

Rivers makes a decent comparable just in terms of scope of career because he also never received an all pro, but Rivers had 3 top 5 OPOY finishes, a top 3 MVP year compared to the super bowl win for Stafford. He also had like  8 pro bowls...and yes, we all think the pro bowl is a joke, but it's still some sort of recognition which Stafford can't seem to get (I do think that Stafford turned down the pro bowl once and made the super bowl one year, so his totals are slightly impacted...but 3 pro bowls isn't making it look that much better). 

Who's more deserving between Russ and Stafford? Stafford has him smoked on yardage, which isn't surprising, but with a season's difference in games, they aren't that far apart in total touchdowns (Stafford has like 10 more total), and Russ has way fewer INTs, second team all pro, 4 top 5 opoy finishes. Wilson has the super bowl win as well and a Walter Payton Man of the year. Maybe you give Stafford the edge here, but I won't fault anyone for going with Russ. 

Without another 3-4 years of stat building by Stafford, I simply don't know how he stands high enough in this era unless we are putting in like 8-10 QBs. He's getting some late career love from film nerds (deservedly so), but his career with Detroit is a black hole. There are only a handful of QBs in the HOF that have losing records, which is worth noting as well. I would hope that QB wins is a thing that is dead in modern day analysis, but you never know with the HOF voting. 

 

All fair points and to be clear, I am NOT saying he should be in. I also agree he would need another 3-4 years.

But for the accolades, its the same story to me as my Super Bowl MVP example. I didn't really want to put the effort into this because, again, I do NOT think he's a hall of famer. But here goes some random *** examples for why I think focusing on accolades or a lack there of doesn't make a ton of sense:

2011 - which you referenced - Eli makes pro bowl over Stafford despite having less TDs, worse numbers, a worse passer rating and his team having a worse record

2021 - Russell Wilson selected over Stafford - despite Staffords team having a better record and beating Wilson head to head twice, better overall numbers

2017 - league MVP was Tom Brady with 13 wins, 32 TDs and a passer rating of 102.8 - Stafford in 2021 had 12 wins, 41 TDs and a passer rating of 102.9 - if we pick up Stafford's 2021 season and drop it in 2017, he should win league MVP - and it's worth noting that those are similar eras

Back to 2011 for a second - Brees and Rodgers threw 46 and 45 TDs respectively - bad luck that Stafford had an amazing season during the same year that two (all time great) QBs had the seasons they did.

 

Someone said that Matt Ryan's resume is head and shoulders above Stafford's - but that's not the case if he has his 2021 season in 2017 and wins MVP and has his 2011 season any other year and then makes the pro bowl in those seasons. He also likely should have made it in 2017 - Wilson made it over him again despite having a worse passer rating, less yards and the same record. So we're up to three "justified" pro bowls and then two seasons that could have seen him first or second team all pro and possibly even league MVP if they happen in other years.

 

Again, not saying he should be in - just that I push back on the lack of accolades for any player when the numbers dictate they could have or should have gotten said accolades.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

13 hours ago, seminoles1 said:

That seems a little hyperbolic. He's playing pretty well.

Stafford, kind of like Lamar, you just have to actually watch to know how good he's been. Some of the throws he's made this year are beyond insane. No-look passes, passes into impossible windows - it's all there.

They've had some struggles here and there mainly because he's been injured a little bit and their run game has been inconsistent without Kyren, and they've had Puka and Kupp going in and out with injuries too.

But Stafford has been among the best QB's this year without a doubt.

[seminoles1]

1 hour ago, FrantikRam said:

I think it's a consensus that Manning/Brady/Brees are all time greats regardless of era though, and probably Rodgers too.

Brees is not even close to the consensus 3rd best QB ever.

Edit: Though top 10 for sure, so your point still makes sense. Bad luck for Stafford I guess, but other QBs made multiple Pro Bowls and won MVPs in that same era.

Edited December 21, 2023 by seminoles1

[Soko]

37 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

Which one has played the toughest schedule? Stafford. 

Scheduling is all that separated Stafford from Baker? What about who has the better coaching?

Hope Canton is getting their Baker Mayfield bust ready!

[seminoles1]

20 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

But for the accolades, its the same story to me as my Super Bowl MVP example. I didn't really want to put the effort into this because, again, I do NOT think he's a hall of famer. But here goes some random *** examples for why I think focusing on accolades or a lack there of doesn't make a ton of sense:

Someone said that Matt Ryan's resume is head and shoulders above Stafford's - but that's not the case if he has his 2021 season in 2017 and wins MVP and has his 2011 season any other year and then makes the pro bowl in those seasons. He also likely should have made it in 2017 - Wilson made it over him again despite having a worse passer rating, less yards and the same record. So we're up to three "justified" pro bowls and then two seasons that could have seen him first or second team all pro and possibly even league MVP if they happen in other years.

Again, not saying he should be in - just that I push back on the lack of accolades for any player when the numbers dictate they could have or should have gotten said accolades.

That's a lot of ifs and buts.

I agree that voted on accolades always deserve context (I go over this every time I run out of patience and jump into an MJ-LeBron debate), but do you honestly think the Hall of Fame committee takes the time to breakdown every applicant's resume to this amount of detail?

[Soko]

You put guys like Stafford or Ryan in (I’d probably pick Ryan first if forced), you open Pandora’s box, and you have to start considering a lot of other guys.

Being good for a long time is an awesome thing, but it should mean something to be the best (or among the best). Ryan at least had one outlier season of being the best, but neither guy really consistently put themselves in the elite competition.

[grizmo78]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned TJ Watt (unless I missed it). This year he's at 16 sacks and approaching 100 sacks on his career along with 26 forced fumbles. He's been a beast and underrated since everyone only talks about Garrett, the Bosa brothers and Parsons. 

[AngusMcFife]

1 hour ago, FrantikRam said:

 

I think it's a consensus that Manning/Brady/Brees are all time greats regardless of era though, and probably Rodgers too. If you make a list of top ten QBs and be honest with yourself, half that list all played in the same era, and the other half did not.

Manning and Brady, yes.

Brees,  I don't think so. 

Rodgers, maybe. 

Quote

I also said I could craft an argument, not that I would make said argument.

Fair enough, you got me there. 

[seminoles1]

10 minutes ago, grizmo78 said:

I'm surprised no one has mentioned TJ Watt (unless I missed it). This year he's at 16 sacks and approaching 100 sacks on his career along with 26 forced fumbles. He's been a beast and underrated since everyone only talks about Garrett, the Bosa brothers and Parsons. 

I'm highly skeptical of this take.