Week 17: Broncos (7-8) Vs Chargers (5-10)

[jolly red giant]

Well - a battle of the back-ups - Stidham Vs Stick

Both teams are a bit banged up - but it looks like the Chargers could also be missing Allen and Palmer.

Be interesting to see how Stidham plays, how much of Payton's offence will be on display and could Stidham be an option for next season.

After that there is a very slim hope of a wildcard - but the combinations of games left really do not help the situation, so it is effectively a write-off after last weeks loss to the Pats

I think we'll get a bounce from having Wilson on the bench

Broncos 24 - Chargers 14

[Broncofan]

 

 

 

We won’t have Sutton & Browning.  Chargers won’t have Keenan Allen or Joshua Palmer and obv not Justin  Herbert / Mike Williams.   
 

Honestly shouldn’t matter.  Unless we lose the TO battle by 2+ we should win this by 2+ scores.   

Edited December 29, 2023 by Broncofan

[bMiller031]

21 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Honestly shouldn’t matter.  Unless we lose the TO battle by 2+ we should win this by 2+ scores.   

curious to hear the source of this confidence.  Line is DEN -3.5, we’ll be w/o Sutton, Browning, potentially Simmons, and Stidham is a complete unknown. 

[grizmo78]

Now that we're basically out of the playoffs, time to hope our young guys get quality playing time while also coming away with a last second loss. A win could drop our draft position by around 10 spots as we're tied with 5 other teams and 1 loss more than an additional 8 teams. 

[AKRNA]

I'm really interested in how Stidham performs. His pre-draft analysis has some interesting info.

Excerpts from Draft Dive:

" he looked very comfortable throwing intermediate and long passes. His arm strength is average, but he knows how to throw the ball far enough and with the right touch."

"I also liked how accurate his throws were. As I said, he threw a lot of dump offs, but throwing intermediate and deep he was usually on point."

" His arm strength isn’t anything special, but it’s good enough. More importantly, he’s accurate. " 

"I believe people rated below Stidham can play in the NFL, so it only makes sense that I believe Stidham can as well."

"He’s really close to Gardner Minshew for me, so I think he can be an NFL starting quarterback."

Should be interesting. He's been under this system for a while and has watched hours of game film. He should have learned a lot. Now we'll see how well it translates to the football field.

 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, bMiller031 said:

curious to hear the source of this confidence.  Line is DEN -3.5, we’ll be w/o Sutton, Browning, potentially Simmons, and Stidham is a complete unknown. 

 

2 hours ago, grizmo78 said:

Now that we're basically out of the playoffs, time to hope our young guys get quality playing time while also coming away with a last second loss. A win could drop our draft position by around 10 spots as we're tied with 5 other teams and 1 loss more than an additional 8 teams. 

 

The ironic part - I would rather we lose this week, for the reasons @grizmo78 alluded to.   And I think I've been very clear on why before - to ensure we didn't get stuck with Russell Wilson next year (so that's done), and yes, if it's not an org-changing culture W like KC, then the rest doesn't really matter, give me the better draft pick.

But as to why I see a 10+ pt win for DEN if it's TO-neutral, there are 3 key matchups with current DEN-LAC that swing our way:

1.   First and foremost, the Chargers can't run the ball effectively, and they can't stop the run consistently.    With our O & DL issues, that's huge.   Anytime you have a trench edge on both sides, IMO that makes you a strong favorite.   It's pretty rare we can say we do with this OL & DL (there might be 5 teams with which I can think we own a trench edge on both sides of the ball...at most), but with the Chargers, IMO that's the case.

2.  Next, the Chargers also don't cover well at all.    The reason why they limited us in the first game was both an awful Jeudy day (1 drop & 1 can't keep feet inbounds), but also the limitations got Russell Wilson benched - can't throw to middle of field, doesn't want to throw slants (a Payton staple), and doesn't throw to spots.   The throw that Jeudy dropped at the sideline was also an easy walk in TD if Russ throws in anywhere within 5 yards of where Jeudy was running to (and 5+ yards behind the CB).   That throw to led to the Mims-target pick was all Russ.    I don't think Stidham is a long-term solution - but vs. the Chargers, the ability to throw slants & across the middle, actually opens up our pass O vs. them. 

3.  The Chargers' talent gap is masked by having all-world guys at key positions - Justin Herbert at QB, Keenan Allen at WR.    Neither guy is playing.  Worse, their only "good" WR left, is also out (Joshua Palmer - Mike Williams out a long time ago as well, but Palmer is new).     Palmer was their top guy with Allen out, and while he was a downgrade, it's an even bigger downgrade now.    Austin Ekeler has hit the wall with age & injuries this year, and their TE corps we should know to focus on with the WR's not nearly as concerning (Donald Parham in the RZ is always an issue, but he used to be the 3rd/4th read). 

4.  Because of the Chargers D' issues, and their inability to run the ball well - they lose TOP battles regularly.  Our 1st game it was 33:30 - 26:30, and we let off the gas the entire 4Q.     At home, in altitude - that TOP gap accentuates the first 3 edges even more.  

Now, you may ask "how did LAC almost beat Buffalo"?   Well, pretty simple - +3 TO margin, and Buffalo decided to shy away from pounding the ball with James Cook (the boxscore says 20 carries, but 8 came on the 4Q drives) - and so the Chargers actually had 33 min TOP as a result.      

So, without a 2+ TO margin, yeah, I see a DEN 10+ pt win.   I took DEN -3 as soon as it dropped for 4U right away lol.    And to be clear, I wish I didn't feel this way as a fan - I'd prefer we lose the last 2, and reset to 2024 with a top 10 pick.   But I can't deny the above matchups. 

FWIW, if you looked up the WK16 GDT, those same matchups were why I said we could easily lose to NE, when ppl were calling for a blowout W.   And I said the same for HOU as well and I said we'd likely lose in TO-neutral game (my Survivor picks will back me up here lol).    Some matchups we are set up so poorly, and rarely do we enjoy a massive edge on both sides of the trenches, but this is one of them.  Without Herbert, at home, with the trench edge, sadly it would take -2 TO result or more to lose IMO.   Still, anything's possible.  Take it 1 step further - barring injury, I think we'll lose WK18 to LV in a TO-neutral game, so this isn't me suddenly thinking the team is good.    It's just that the matchups matter. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Broncofan

[MontanaBronco]

Well didnt set the world on fire on the first drive, but immediately apparent Stidham is much more capable of seeing/attempting to throw timing routes over the middle. He also had plenty of time in the pocket with a bit of intelligent movement. Will definitely keep an eye on the OL but have a feeling they will give him ample time

[BroncoBruin]

Jerry Jeudy’s effort level is an absolute joke.

[MontanaBronco]

Did surtain lose the ball? Looked like that could been a relatively easy int

[BullsandBroncos]

33 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Jerry Jeudy’s effort level is an absolute joke.

It's also insane how often he's been open this year and how he's never gotten the ball 

[MontanaBronco]

I know its the chargers, but I think the OL is showing that they are capable of creating a solid pocket. Stidham has plenty of time in the pocket and space to manipulate the pocket with small movements(something Russ doesn't really do). That being said, Stidham looks a bit lost out there with questionable accuracy and difficulty with progressions. Jeudy isn't a 1 and no Sutton or Mims doesn't give him a lot of options, but we will see how he looks going forward. 

Overall, I think long term this offense sans Russel will be a lot better off. 

[MontanaBronco]

What a play by lil jordan

[MontanaBronco]

Williams just doesnt have it this year

[BullsandBroncos]

21 minutes ago, MontanaBronco said:

Williams just doesnt have it this year

There's no chance that knee is 100%. He's lost all explosion 

[BullsandBroncos]

So if we make the playoffs (highly unlikely) does Stidham stay number 1?