2018 Draft Thread I

[Forge]

21 minutes ago, Gore Whore 21 said:

The one that stands out to me which I don’t think I’ll ever forget is Jake Locker. Everyone wanted to give Locker a pass due to his surrounding cast (myself included). Now that is just one guy, and as @Forge pointed out, there are guys that have improved in the NFL. I’d be willing to bet that the number of 50% passers in college that stay in that range in the NFL than the amount of guys that improve. Like I said, I like Josh Allen, but I’d be lying if I said he didn’t scare the hell out of me especially in the top 10 of the draft. Seems like a guy that can get a coach/gm fired.... or make them look really good.

Locker is a very apt comparison too, because of the accuracy issues, the mobility, and the scheme locker played in. I've used that a couple of times. The one thing that Allen does better is throw on the run (he may be the best I have seen since I started paying to the draft), but a lot of the other things are very comparable. Locker's arm wasn't quite as good, but obviously he had a very good one as well, so anything over that is simply gravy. 

The problem with using the completion percentage as an absolute is that it's not all created equal because a lot of it will come from scheme. Like I said with Cam, there's just no way that he's an "accurate" quarterback. Maybe if you put him on Wyoming, he's completing something comparable to Allen in college as opposed to the 66% percent he was at auburn. So it's not like we haven't had successful quarterbacks with less than stellar accuracy before - they just don't pop up on the arbitrary numbers  that people use to suggest Allen will bust (the most common one is sub 57% completion percentage in college, which is about as arbitrary as it gets, since there have been plenty of guys in that 57-59 range that just happen to  miss that cut off). 

Even if his accuracy is just Kaepernick-esque, which obviously was very spotty, he's got better mental processing to read the field and will actually take something off his throws and use touch (which Kaepernick didn't do). Kaep has been right around 60% in his nfl career, and I see no reason why Allen wouldn't be a couple of ticks better with the superior passing ability (using touch) and mental processing (going through progressions to get to the open man) and ability to throw on the run. I also wouldn't suspect him to go stagnant in his growth as a passer like Kaep did, since the latter was very unnatural as an actual passer in the pocket. If Allen is a 62% passer at the next level, with his ability to throw the ball downfield, on the run, etc etc, I think he's going nto be a formidable quarterback. I don't see why he can't be a more mobile Carson Palmer, for example. 

[big9erfan]

3 hours ago, Forge said:

It's not. It's just rare. 65% is a bit high (usually only about a third of the league hits that mark, last year only 6). I think if you're in that 62-65 range, you're fine. 

Matt Stafford was a 57% in college, 62% in nfl, including last 3 years 65% or above. Tyrod was 57% in college, 62% in the NFL which is certainly workable. Josh McCown was 51% in college, was 67% last year and 60% for his career. Matt Ryan was right around 60% in college with some really bad interception rates, he's 65% in the nfl. Jay Cutler was 57% in college, 62% in the NFL.  Those are just the somewhat recent guys. David Garrard was 57% in college, 61.5% in the NFL (and his era wasn't as easy as this one to bump that up in my opinion, even though it was just about 10 years ago).  Carson Palmer was 59% in college, 62.5% in NFL. Some guys were also hidden by scheme in college - Cam Newton completed 66% of his passes his one year starting - there's no way that someone is going to tell me they think that he's an accurate thrower of the football (58% in NFL). 

If you want a more dated guy, but someone who could potentially comp out to Allen, Brett Favre was 52% in college, 62% in the NFL. Allen has the comparable arm, similar gunslinger mentality. 

Dated - but I think a really good one. There's lot about Allen that reminds me of Favre.

[big9erfan]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

Locker is a very apt comparison too, because of the accuracy issues, the mobility, and the scheme locker played in. I've used that a couple of times. The one thing that Allen does better is throw on the run (he may be the best I have seen since I started paying to the draft), but a lot of the other things are very comparable. Locker's arm wasn't quite as good, but obviously he had a very good one as well, so anything over that is simply gravy. 

The problem with using the completion percentage as an absolute is that it's not all created equal because a lot of it will come from scheme. Like I said with Cam, there's just no way that he's an "accurate" quarterback. Maybe if you put him on Wyoming, he's completing something comparable to Allen in college as opposed to the 66% percent he was at auburn. So it's not like we haven't had successful quarterbacks with less than stellar accuracy before - they just don't pop up on the arbitrary numbers  that people use to suggest Allen will bust (the most common one is sub 57% completion percentage in college, which is about as arbitrary as it gets, since there have been plenty of guys in that 57-59 range that just happen to  miss that cut off). 

Even if his accuracy is just Kaepernick-esque, which obviously was very spotty, he's got better mental processing to read the field and will actually take something off his throws and use touch (which Kaepernick didn't do). Kaep has been right around 60% in his nfl career, and I see no reason why Allen wouldn't be a couple of ticks better with the superior passing ability (using touch) and mental processing (going through progressions to get to the open man) and ability to throw on the run. I also wouldn't suspect him to go stagnant in his growth as a passer like Kaep did, since the latter was very unnatural as an actual passer in the pocket. If Allen is a 62% passer at the next level, with his ability to throw the ball downfield, on the run, etc etc, I think he's going nto be a formidable quarterback. I don't see why he can't be a more mobile Carson Palmer, for example. 

Arm strength and accuracy matter, but the "head aspect" of playing QB is the thing that is most often over-looked - maybe because it's often hard to evaluate.  Certainly it's hard for us that don't have full-22 views of every play to see how well the QB was reading the field. I'd say with his arm, his size, his mobility, and even given his college accuracy of 56% he can still be a really good NFL QB if he can read defenses and see the field well. I have no opinion on whether he can or not, just saying that it matters a lot.

[big9erfan]

4 hours ago, Forge said:

It's not. It's just rare. 65% is a bit high (usually only about a third of the league hits that mark, last year only 6). I think if you're in that 62-65 range, you're fine. 

Matt Stafford was a 57% in college, 62% in nfl, including last 3 years 65% or above. Tyrod was 57% in college, 62% in the NFL which is certainly workable. Josh McCown was 51% in college, was 67% last year and 60% for his career. Matt Ryan was right around 60% in college with some really bad interception rates, he's 65% in the nfl. Jay Cutler was 57% in college, 62% in the NFL.  Those are just the somewhat recent guys. David Garrard was 57% in college, 61.5% in the NFL (and his era wasn't as easy as this one to bump that up in my opinion, even though it was just about 10 years ago).  Carson Palmer was 59% in college, 62.5% in NFL. Some guys were also hidden by scheme in college - Cam Newton completed 66% of his passes his one year starting - there's no way that someone is going to tell me they think that he's an accurate thrower of the football (58% in NFL). 

If you want a more dated guy, but someone who could potentially comp out to Allen, Brett Favre was 52% in college, 62% in the NFL. Allen has the comparable arm, similar gunslinger mentality. 

Thanks for the update. So there's hope out there for some of those QBs that are only in the mid to uper 50's in college. That's good to know.

[the-catch]

6 hours ago, Gore Whore 21 said:

The one that stands out to me which I don’t think I’ll ever forget is Jake Locker. Everyone wanted to give Locker a pass due to his surrounding cast (myself included). Now that is just one guy, and as @Forge pointed out, there are guys that have improved in the NFL. I’d be willing to bet that the number of 50% passers in college that stay in that range in the NFL than the amount of guys that improve. Like I said, I like Josh Allen, but I’d be lying if I said he didn’t scare the hell out of me especially in the top 10 of the draft. Seems like a guy that can get a coach/gm fired.... or make them look really good.

Any top 5-10 QB pick that fails is gonna get the coach/GM fired. The difference with Josh Allen, is the fired coach/GM will be viable to pick up another gig afterwards. With a Baker Mayfield it will be harder to justify in Hindsight when the coach/gm is looking for his next job. Of the guys who failed, it's easier to defend a guy who at least had objective traits of why he could've been great; the big arm, the size, the athletic ability, etc whereas Baker everyone will boil it down to his size or lack there of...  Greg Cosell had a great discussion about this.

So, personally I like Baker better, but my gut says Allen goes first.

[sherm]

11 hours ago, 757-NINER said:

 

Unless they see James as a CB, I dont see him being the guy@9. Too many holes elsewhere and safety is arguably our deepest, most talented position with Tartt, Ward, and Colbert. Not to mention I really like Chancellor James's potential long-term also. Plus I dont think he's a top ten talent. Top ten athlete yes but his tape isnt the greatest IMO. 

Sorry but I'm not sold on any of our S currently on our roster. Now would I be ok if they ended up starting...yeah I guess. But none of them would prevent me from drafting James if he's available. 

Ward and Tartt aren't signed past this yr. Colbert showed some flashes that's all. 

[GW21]

25 minutes ago, the-catch said:

Any top 5-10 QB pick that fails is gonna get the coach/GM fired. The difference with Josh Allen, is the fired coach/GM will be viable to pick up another gig afterwards. With a Baker Mayfield it will be harder to justify in Hindsight when the coach/gm is looking for his next job. Of the guys who failed, it's easier to defend a guy who at least had objective traits of why he could've been great; the big arm, the size, the athletic ability, etc whereas Baker everyone will boil it down to his size or lack there of...  Greg Cosell had a great discussion about this.

So, personally I like Baker better, but my gut says Allen goes first.

I was referring to the fact that he could be a colossal bust or an absolute stud. There are guys drafted in the top 10 that haven’t lived up to their billing that didn’t get their coaches or GMs kicked out of town. Guys like Bradford, Alex Smith, Jay Cutler are not the reason the coaches/GMs were run out of town imo; their coaches earned that distinction themselves. I see Rosen as having a similar floor as these guys, although I expect Rosen to do much better. I guess what I’m getting at is that I think Rosen is a far ‘safer’ pick than a guy like Allen. Again, I’m not saying Josh Allen will bust, just that there is a higher probability with him in my mind. There is also a higher ceiling with a guy like Allen than there is with pretty much any guy in this draft. That’s the gamble you make with Josh Allen. 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, Gore Whore 21 said:

I was referring to the fact that he could be a colossal bust or an absolute stud. There are guys drafted in the top 10 that haven’t lived up to their billing that didn’t get their coaches or GMs kicked out of town. Guys like Bradford, Alex Smith, Jay Cutler are not the reason the coaches/GMs were run out of town imo; their coaches earned that distinction themselves. I see Rosen as having a similar floor as these guys, although I expect Rosen to do much better. I guess what I’m getting at is that I think Rosen is a far ‘safer’ pick than a guy like Allen. Again, I’m not saying Josh Allen will bust, just that there is a higher probability with him in my mind. There is also a higher ceiling with a guy like Allen than there is with pretty much any guy in this draft. That’s the gamble you make with Josh Allen. 

Absolutely. Allen could be a punctual Josh Freeman, let's be honest

 

[rudyZ]

7 hours ago, Forge said:

Absolutely. Allen could be a punctual Josh Freeman, let's be honest

 

You're saying that as though Josh Freeman is a failure. The guy has a fair chance of being the Montréal Alouettes' starting QB this year. What are you even talking about?!

[oldman9er]

Adarius Bowman... Getting it done... baby!!!!!!

https://www.cfl.ca/players/adarius-bowman/143266/

[Psychlone]

Any thoughts on Voch Lombard from you draft aficionados? I like to hear breakdowns from a former O-Lineman's perspective but not sure how reputable his take is...  

[oldman9er]

6 hours ago, Psychlone said:

Any thoughts on Voch Lombard from you draft aficionados? I like to hear breakdowns from a former O-Lineman's perspective but not sure how reputable his take is...  

If folks have the time to really watch and listen, he can put together some informative youtube on prospects... but... I do at times find him to give me headaches with his zip-zip replays (my eyes are getting older and tireder.. that a word?) He also tries to inject too much suave (I'm mr. cool-daddy) talk in there.. and his attempts at humor can sometimes backfire into wasting my time, if  in a no nonsense let's get to it mood. 

I'm also assuming you mean Voch Lombardi ?  

[Forge]

10 hours ago, Psychlone said:

Any thoughts on Voch Lombard from you draft aficionados? I like to hear breakdowns from a former O-Lineman's perspective but not sure how reputable his take is...  

I like him. He's not perfect, but I think that his breakdowns are good to listen to, and he knows enough about what's going on to not be talking out of his butt. He does a good job catching some little things and bringing them to the forefront. I think that he states his case somewhat well for the most part, but the thing that I don't particularly love is that his breakdowns come from a very, very small sample size. He spends so much time rewinding a single play from a single game...I think that he would be better off providing more content from a wider variety of tape. Otherwise it can come off as him cherry picking on the vids. If you look enough, most prospects will provide the things you are looking for at some point or another if you're just trying to prove a point, but he can help you catch things too, which is nice. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

A guy I was high on last year and seems to be getting little love is Arden Key. Any chance he falls all the way down to our spot in the 2nd round?

[Forge]

Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

A guy I was high on last year and seems to be getting little love is Arden Key. Any chance he falls all the way down to our spot in the 2nd round?

I've been saying for a while now that I think there's a legit shot he falls to round 3. I think there's a really good shot he's there in round 2 at our pick.