UK's dream offseason (as of right now)

[lomaxgrUK]

18 hours ago, AKRNA said:

See, that's what I don't agree with. History doesn't agree with  it either. Mr. Irrelevant of 2022 is one of the best QB's in the league and two former #1's are available in FA. Last years MVP was the 10th pick in 2017 and this years probable MVP, Jaclson, was the 32nd pick in 2018.

What each one of those guys has in common is they were drafted by very good, well coached teams. Hopefully we can be one of those.

I know what you are saying; I don't think anyone disagrees with the notion that a good team and good coaching makes finding QB production a lot easier.

That said - if we got nothing else from a draft other than a QB who proves he can play at a top 10 level, that draft is a resounding success. It's the hardest thing to find in pro sports.

[broncos67]

23 hours ago, AKRNA said:

See, that's what I don't agree with. History doesn't agree with  it either. Mr. Irrelevant of 2022 is one of the best QB's in the league and two former #1's are available in FA. Last years MVP was the 10th pick in 2017 and this years probable MVP, Jaclson, was the 32nd pick in 2018.

What each one of those guys has in common is they were drafted by very good, well coached teams. Hopefully we can be one of those.

Listen, there's always an element of "a rising tide lifts all boats" that factors into QB play and overall team performance. I get that. That said, some of this is luck, some is skilled scouting, and some of it is smart team building and drafting.

For the most part, R1 QBs tend to be among the most successful in the league. There's a risk of failure as with any position, sure.

Among playoff teams: BAL, BUF, KC, HOU, CLE, MIA, DET, TB, LAR, GB all have QBs drafted in the first round. 10 of 14 teams. It's not to say that you must draft a QB before the team is built or can't find QB talent later in the draft, however, I do think it bears mentioning that if you have a pick in a range where a good prospect for your team slated to land and you can get him, you probably should. I do not have an issue trading back and punting on QB this year if it's not worth it. But the flipside is, if you are in a deep QB draft and you forego the pick to build, you may end up in the same purgatory we are in and you're hoping for some luck in finding a QB later in the draft.

[broncos67]

5 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I know what you are saying; I don't think anyone disagrees with the notion that a good team and good coaching makes finding QB production a lot easier.

That said - if we got nothing else from a draft other than a QB who proves he can play at a top 10 level, that draft is a resounding success. It's the hardest thing to find in pro sports.

Exactly this. Look what Stroud did for Houston, for example. I'm not suggesting that any QB we draft will have that exact same impact, but Stroud changed the entire outlook for an organization overnight. A team that decidedly did not have a full roster in place before being selected.

[AKRNA]

On 1/12/2024 at 6:33 AM, broncos67 said:

Listen, there's always an element of "a rising tide lifts all boats" that factors into QB play and overall team performance. I get that. That said, some of this is luck, some is skilled scouting, and some of it is smart team building and drafting.

For the most part, R1 QBs tend to be among the most successful in the league. There's a risk of failure as with any position, sure.

Among playoff teams: BAL, BUF, KC, HOU, CLE, MIA, DET, TB, LAR, GB all have QBs drafted in the first round. 10 of 14 teams. It's not to say that you must draft a QB before the team is built or can't find QB talent later in the draft, however, I do think it bears mentioning that if you have a pick in a range where a good prospect for your team slated to land and you can get him, you probably should. I do not have an issue trading back and punting on QB this year if it's not worth it. But the flipside is, if you are in a deep QB draft and you forego the pick to build, you may end up in the same purgatory we are in and you're hoping for some luck in finding a QB later in the draft.

" the team will end up needing a major trade up in order to land "the guy" anyway." 

This is the part I disagreed with. #1 pick QB's don't fare so well. Sure, your best talent will always be in the first but scattered throughout. I don't see any need or reason to try to trade up to #1. 

Also, just wanted to remind everyone not to look at CJ Stroud in a vacuum. He's far from  the only reason Texas had a huge turnaround. Look no futher than Demeco Ryans and the haul they got from the Watson trade. Kenyon Green, Will Anderson etc. with more to come. 

[broncos67]

On 1/14/2024 at 2:16 PM, AKRNA said:

" the team will end up needing a major trade up in order to land "the guy" anyway." 

This is the part I disagreed with. #1 pick QB's don't fare so well. Sure, your best talent will always be in the first but scattered throughout. I don't see any need or reason to try to trade up to #1. 

Also, just wanted to remind everyone not to look at CJ Stroud in a vacuum. He's far from  the only reason Texas had a huge turnaround. Look no futher than Demeco Ryans and the haul they got from the Watson trade. Kenyon Green, Will Anderson etc. with more to come. 

Not necessarily a trade up to #1, but a trade up somewhere in the draft. It's important to remember that guys like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, etc, came into the draft with some questions, but also during a time when teams still hadn't fully embraced the whole "running QB trend" which is part of why they dropped. That skillset is viewed very differently now.

Regarding Stroud - completely fair point that Ryans and the drafting of Will Anderson in particular also helped them immensely. But Stroud is undeniably the reason Houston is in the position they are in. He hasn't performed like a rookie and he's dramatically elevated the play of Nico Collins, Tank Dell and the rest of that WR group. Without him, the Texans are not a playoff team. Picking the right QB is the difference between having a trajectory like Houston and Pittsburgh. Two playoff teams, two different outlooks. One team has their QB position set for the next 12+ years and can build accordingly. The other has a QB carousel and no direction and is relying on one side of the ball. I want us to have a Houston-esque outlook.

[broncofan48]

1 hour ago, broncos67 said:

Not necessarily a trade up to #1, but a trade up somewhere in the draft. It's important to remember that guys like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, etc, came into the draft with some questions, but also during a time when teams still hadn't fully embraced the whole "running QB trend" which is part of why they dropped. That skillset is viewed very differently now.

Regarding Stroud - completely fair point that Ryans and the drafting of Will Anderson in particular also helped them immensely. But Stroud is undeniably the reason Houston is in the position they are in. He hasn't performed like a rookie and he's dramatically elevated the play of Nico Collins, Tank Dell and the rest of that WR group. Without him, the Texans are not a playoff team. Picking the right QB is the difference between having a trajectory like Houston and Pittsburgh. Two playoff teams, two different outlooks. One team has their QB position set for the next 12+ years and can build accordingly. The other has a QB carousel and no direction and is relying on one side of the ball. I want us to have a Houston-esque outlook.

They also had at the time a good young QB in Watson, albeit with some off the field issues.   They weren't trading Case Keenum for that raft of picks.   

 

A good QB, or even perceived one, is so valuable in sports

[jolly red giant]

We need a QB and we have to keep throwing darts until we get one (be that the draft - a trade - or FA)

[Dbrog24]

31 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

We need a QB and we have to keep throwing darts until we get one (be that the draft - a trade - or FA)

Does anyone know if there have been teams that do this consistently? Like basically draft a QB every year or every other year late in the draft and hope they can grow into Purdy? I guess in some ways San Francisco did it with getting one a QB sitting behind another one in trade (Jimmy G), then trading up to get a project, and then also drafting one late. It would just be interesting if a team ONLY drafted late QBs and see if that's a viable strategy as they would be building out the roster in the meantime 

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, jolly red giant said:

We need a QB and we have to keep throwing darts until we get one (be that the draft - a trade - or FA)

That worked great for Arizona.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

4 hours ago, AKRNA said:

That worked great for Arizona.

You move heaven and earth for THE QB, you don’t keep wasting assets on a QB. Since manning retired we have wasted way too many assets on QBs because of the attitude “we must keep throwing darts to find a QB.” That’s how we ended up with Paxton and Russ. 

if they believe that Daniel’s is THE QB then I am fine drafting him. If they draft him because he is an available QB I’ll continue to be disappointed in this team. It is ok to not spend assets on sub par QBs this offseason while we get the rest of the team built. 

[AKRNA]

38 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

You move heaven and earth for THE QB, you don’t keep wasting assets on a QB. Since manning retired we have wasted way too many assets on QBs because of the attitude “we must keep throwing darts to find a QB.” That’s how we ended up with Paxton and Russ. 

if they believe that Daniel’s is THE QB then I am fine drafting him. If they draft him because he is an available QB I’ll continue to be disappointed in this team. It is ok to not spend assets on sub par QBs this offseason while we get the rest of the team built. 

You just defined my philosophy better than I ever have. If you truly believe he's "THE GUY" then get him, whatever it takes. If not, then back off.

I'd be perfectly happy with Stidham for another year. I saw nothing in Stidhams short stint to make me believe he can't play in this league. Another year of coaching, film study and most importantly actual game experience could do wonders.  It's a detailed offense and requires a lot mentally to make it function. He's fairly mobile and can make all the throws. If he "gets it" he could be a real steal. 

[jolly red giant]

8 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

You move heaven and earth for THE QB, you don’t keep wasting assets on a QB. Since manning retired we have wasted way too many assets on QBs because of the attitude “we must keep throwing darts to find a QB.” That’s how we ended up with Paxton and Russ. 

if they believe that Daniel’s is THE QB then I am fine drafting him. If they draft him because he is an available QB I’ll continue to be disappointed in this team. It is ok to not spend assets on sub par QBs this offseason while we get the rest of the team built. 

The problem is that you have no idea who is 'THE QB' until you get him in the door and see what you have.

The trade for Wilson (and the contract) have been a disaster - but any GM needing a QB would have made that trade. Yes - there were questions raised here about the trade - but it wasn't until Wilson actually took the field that we knew it was going pear shaped. 

In 2012 Elway went and got 'THE QB' when he signed Manning. Then we drafted Lynch because he was wearing blinkers and then two years later passed on Allen because he still had the blinkers on. After two years of producing nothing if Elway had accepted his f*ck-up with Lynch he could have drafted Allen and we would be in a different situation now - when you don't have the answer you need to accept it without wasting time and go again.  The problem was Elway insisted on going with rethreads at QB - and wasting a lot of time and money doing it.

Constantly waiting for 'THE QB' can mean that you are waiting forever - and this is a QB league - you don't get anywhere without one.

(and as an aside - the two opportunities we had to get out of this mess were shafted by Joe Ellis - sinking the plan for Mike, Wade and Gary to come back and bring in Kirk Cousins - and then blocking Kyle Shanahan as the HC because of his animosity towards Mike.)

Edited January 18 by jolly red giant

[AKRNA]

5 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

The problem is that you have no idea who is 'THE QB' until you get him in the door and see what you have.

The trade for Wilson (and the contract) have been a disaster - but any GM needing a QB would have made that trade. Yes - there were questions raised here about the trade - but it wasn't until Wilson actually took the field that we knew it was going pear shaped. 

 

Two things popped out at me. Your first sentence reminded me of the famous Nancy Pelosi quip "we have to pass the bill to see what's in it". 

The 2nd I highlighted is absolutely not true. Even a bit of study revealed that Russ could not win from the pocket. He never could. That alone would remove him from at least half the GM/Coaches want list. 

Bottom line, the Russ trade was an abomination that never should have happened. Trading the farm and adding a huge contract, for a running QB showing signs of aging and slowing that doesn't have the ability to play and win from the pocket. No one but George makes that trade.

[Dbrog24]

1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

Two things popped out at me. Your first sentence reminded me of the famous Nancy Pelosi quip "we have to pass the bill to see what's in it". 

The 2nd I highlighted is absolutely not true. Even a bit of study revealed that Russ could not win from the pocket. He never could. That alone would remove him from at least half the GM/Coaches want list. 

Bottom line, the Russ trade was an abomination that never should have happened. Trading the farm and adding a huge contract, for a running QB showing signs of aging and slowing that doesn't have the ability to play and win from the pocket. No one but George makes that trade.

I think this might be @jolly red giant point though. It was an instance that our GM went for a QB he genuinely believed would be "THE QB" like so many others do (see recent examples of Lance, Bryce Young, Watson, "HOF5" draft class etc etc). I think MOST GMs go in on the QB they think will be "the guy." That's why I actually have come to believe it's just never a good idea to do-so unless you are literally going for a superbowl that year and had the previous year come close. This whole "we are just a QB away" thing that is still going on in this very thread (ex: Go all in for THE QB so you can have a houston-esc turnaround) and is BS if you are trading a crapload of assets to do it because you still won't be coming close to a SB and then EVEN IF the guy works out, you will be out of picks like we have been for years and then the QB rots anyway. 

edit: It's also where I agree with @broncos67 in the other thread where he was talking about us just needing guys to actually play and contribute so we can build off that and then eventually figure out a QB. 

Edited January 18 by Dbrog24

[AKRNA]

26 minutes ago, Dbrog24 said:

I think this might be @jolly red giant point though. It was an instance that our GM went for a QB he genuinely believed would be "THE QB" like so many others do (see recent examples of Lance, Bryce Young, Watson, "HOF5" draft class etc etc). I think MOST GMs go in on the QB they think will be "the guy." That's why I actually have come to believe it's just never a good idea to do-so unless you are literally going for a superbowl that year and had the previous year come close. This whole "we are just a QB away" thing that is still going on in this very thread (ex: Go all in for THE QB so you can have a houston-esc turnaround) and is BS if you are trading a crapload of assets to do it because you still won't be coming close to a SB and then EVEN IF the guy works out, you will be out of picks like we have been for years and then the QB rots anyway. 

edit: It's also where I agree with @broncos67 in the other thread where he was talking about us just needing guys to actually play and contribute so we can build off that and then eventually figure out a QB. 

I think you're making my point in a way. We haven't been  "just a QB away" for ages. We're definitely not now.

Great point on timing. When the Rams traded for Stafford they were literally "just a QB away" and it got them a SB. I've made th point before, even if Russ was absolutely great it wouldn't have made much difference. A QB might make the difference of a game or two but that's about it. 

As @broncos_fan _from _uk, @broncos67, @lomaxgrUK and others have mentioned we need lots of help.