UK's dream offseason (as of right now)

[jolly red giant]

16 hours ago, AKRNA said:

I think you're making my point in a way. We haven't been  "just a QB away" for ages. We're definitely not now.

Great point on timing. When the Rams traded for Stafford they were literally "just a QB away" and it got them a SB. I've made th point before, even if Russ was absolutely great it wouldn't have made much difference. A QB might make the difference of a game or two but that's about it. 

That is a different discussion - and probably one that is far more valid. Payton will decide which strategy to adopt - 1. get the QB and then build the roster - or - 2. build the roster and then get the QB. But I would suggest that you get the QB - if you think he is 'THE QB' - when the opportunity arises, irrespective of where you are in your strategy.

It is also incorrect to say that Paton was the only GM who would trade for Wilson - by all accounts Washington and the Eagles also made offers. And remember that Wilson was Plan B after Paton failed to get Rodgers. One red flag for Paton should have been when, before the trade, he asked Hackett to do a deep dive on film on Wilson and Hackett replied that he didn't need to because Wilson had been kicking his *** for a decade.

As regards 'one QB away' - the last time that was relevant was when Elway attempted to bring Mike back as HC after Joseph's first year - getting Cousins, with Mike and Gary running the offence, could have potentially delivered. The defence was still dominant at that time.

Edited January 19 by jolly red giant

[BroncoBruin]

23 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Two things popped out at me. Your first sentence reminded me of the famous Nancy Pelosi quip "we have to pass the bill to see what's in it". 

The 2nd I highlighted is absolutely not true. Even a bit of study revealed that Russ could not win from the pocket. He never could. That alone would remove him from at least half the GM/Coaches want list. 

Bottom line, the Russ trade was an abomination that never should have happened. Trading the farm and adding a huge contract, for a running QB showing signs of aging and slowing that doesn't have the ability to play and win from the pocket. No one but George makes that trade.

I get that you were out on the trade from the beginning, but it is flat out untrue that only Denver makes that move. Washington and Philadelphia (a very competent front office) were also heavily involved in trade discussions. Those are just the teams we know about and a lot was dictated by Russell Wilson’s no trade clause, so it’s likely several more teams were interested but had no shot. 

You were right and the NFL was wrong. That should be enough. We don’t need to rewrite history. 

 

[Broncofan]

I think it's a given that several teams wanted Wilson.   We just happened to be the unlucky org that won that "lottery".    The real criticism GM Paton can never shake is committing to an extension before seeing if it would work - it would have been a really bad trade without the extension, but it wouldn't have been nearly as awful with the extra guaranteed $.   

I don't think anyone can argue either way on those 2 points.   Really, after that, though, it's now history.    The only Q is whether we absorb the hit mostly in 1 year (my preference), as opposed to 2-year spread (booo if we go that route).

Edited January 19 by Broncofan

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

I think it's a given that several teams wanted Wilson.   We just happened to be the unlucky org that won that "lottery".    The real criticism GM Paton can never shake is committing to an extension before seeing if it would work - it would have been a really bad trade without the extension, but it wouldn't have been nearly as awful with the extra guaranteed $.   

I don't think anyone can argue either way on those 2 points.   Really, after that, though, it's now history.    The only Q is whether we absorb the hit mostly in 1 year (my preference), as opposed to 2-year spread (booo if we go that route).

Concerning your first point, given Russ had some say it was widely regarded at the time that any trade would include an extension before his team would sign off. There was no trade without the extension so they would be viewed as a single move.

concerning your second point, I also would prefer we eat all the dead cap this season, but after playing with some cap calculators I don’t see how that’s possible. Allen, Mcglinchey, and Powers would all cost more to cut given the structure of contracts through the first 2 seasons. If we cut/trade Bolles, Simmons, DJ Jones, Sutton, Jeudy, Surtain, Singleton, Patrick, Stidham, manhertz, and perine, we could just make it under the cap without any room leftover to sign draft picks or vet minimum FAs. 
 

conversely splitting it to two years gives us two years of cap to otherwise manipulate and the likelihood of an increasing cap next year. 

[broncosfan_101]

On 1/19/2024 at 2:59 PM, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

Concerning your first point, given Russ had some say it was widely regarded at the time that any trade would include an extension before his team would sign off. There was no trade without the extension so they would be viewed as a single move.

concerning your second point, I also would prefer we eat all the dead cap this season, but after playing with some cap calculators I don’t see how that’s possible. Allen, Mcglinchey, and Powers would all cost more to cut given the structure of contracts through the first 2 seasons. If we cut/trade Bolles, Simmons, DJ Jones, Sutton, Jeudy, Surtain, Singleton, Patrick, Stidham, manhertz, and perine, we could just make it under the cap without any room leftover to sign draft picks or vet minimum FAs. 
 

conversely splitting it to two years gives us two years of cap to otherwise manipulate and the likelihood of an increasing cap next year. 

I think it was Broncofan who said, you gotta split it up over two years, but that doesn’t mean you can’t cut as much as possible in 2024 and bank some rollover cap into 2025. I think that’s the path.

[BullsandBroncos]

Every mock I see has us staying at 12 to pick Bo Nix or JJ McCarthy. Needless to say I prefer UKs idea

[Broncofan]

18 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

I think it was Broncofan who said, you gotta split it up over two years, but that doesn’t mean you can’t cut as much as possible in 2024 and bank some rollover cap into 2025. I think that’s the path.

Correct.   Burn as much as possible into 2024, it doesn't have to be 50-50 for both years.   The scenario I fear is where Payton & Paton in fact push the hit back further.    LAR & TAM showed you can eat a ton of dead cap and compete (the obvious caveat being both teams had a serviceable QB <Baker> or great QB <Stafford>). 

And to be clear, I have no illusions we can legitimately compete in 2024 - but if we can't, then just eat as much dead cap as possible.   

There's in fact a path where I think we can be "not bottom-5 god awful" and still eat a ton of dead cap:

-Sign Jameis Winston to a 2-year, 10-12M contract to pair with final year of Jarred Stidham.   Again, neither is the solution, but IMO you can't go in with Stidham alone.   At the same time, I want to spend very little on the position this year.   Cap hit :  5M this year

-Dip into the QB draft class in R3-4 (not earlier), so you're not committed to said player if 2025+ situation is clearly there.

-Trade Justin Simmons.  I was against this at the deadline - but I also started to see signs of decline in the 2H.  Not Kareem Jackson-level, but enough that this is the time to get out before his play really drops.   I'd hope we could get a R3 pick.    Saves:  14M

(As much as losing Simmons hurts, reality was he wasn't the same Simmons in 2H of 2023.   It does require Sterns or PJ Locke to return to playing well, and Turner-Yell to be able to play SS)

-Trade Courtland Sutton for a day 3 pick.    Yes, I know he was great in the RZ.   But again, he doesn't fit what Payton is really looking for, and the 14M matters.   Saves:  10M

-Let DJ Jones & Tim Patrick walk.   Saves:  19.5M.   We wouldn't miss much for 2024 (sorry to say for Patrick, he was a dog, but Payton's O clearly doesn't value 11 personnel).

-Cut Tremon Smith, Chris Manhertz - Saves:  4.6M (zero loss)

The tough moves:

-Trade Garrett Bolles for a late 2nd.    I wish I could say we could do the same for McGlinchey, but the reality is we can't.    Which is unfortunate, because we'd be better off with Bolles at LT and Palc / draft at RT, but that's what we likely face.    It's nothing against Bolles, it's more the reality when he hits FA next year, he's likely not staying (it's pretty clear he is so fed up with the losing in DEN, and this is his last big contract at his age where he can get paid, don't blame him to chase the $).   Saves:  16M.  

-if we trade Jeudy, then we probably lock into drafting a WR in R1-2.    I wouldn't for a 3rd/5th, given the calculus, I'd simply let Jeudy walk after this year if that's the best we can get.   But if we can get something like mid-2nd to late 2nd value, then fine.    Saves:  13M (but I hate being locked into R1, which I think happens if we got rid of our top 2 WR's).  

-Cut Samaje Perine.    Yes, he's useful.   But RB is that replaceable.   Saves:  3M.

The above moves saves 60M+ +/- Jeudy trade (if you trade / cut both Jeudy & Sutton, you're telegraphing a R1 WR pick though).   Of course, we need to pay our draft class, and we do need to fill the roster.   But the point being, we can absorb as much dead $ for 2024, and be in really good cap shape for 2025.   When we're realistically able to compete.

None of the above matters if we don't rebuild the roster with cheap talent, and if we don't find our QB.   I say the above as someone who didn't think it was time to trade Simmons unless you could get a decent return, but the 2H 2023 Simmons I saw definitely makes me reconsider.  

The problem with the above is we never saw Sean Payton take this route - he left NO before the final butcher's bill came due.   I really hope we don't repeat the NO model here.    Long-term, just eat as much dead cap as possible for 2024, draft well, and then be ready to really compete for 2025+.  

 

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, BullsandBroncos said:

Every mock I see has us staying at 12 to pick Bo Nix or JJ McCarthy. Needless to say I prefer UKs idea

I'm willing to eat a ton of crow here, but I don't know how you spend a 1st round pick on a guy who literally took 4+ years of starting before finding success, in an O that doesn't require multiple reads, or throwing the ball downfield.   ORE's O literally had an average LOS of sub 5-yards.     This isn't the Justin Herbert O that Nix ran.    The flags on late-bloomer college QB's against developing into even top-10 NFL QB's (let alone elite) are massive.

My main objection to McCarthy is he's been asked to be a game manager on a loaded OL / team.    We really don't know much about how he would fare against top college D's with him as the true focus, let alone NFL-level D's.   But he at least wouldn't be a 24+ year rookie with late success only on his dossier, and he at least has the physical tools that offer a ceiling.   To be clear, I don't think either belongs in R1, but at least you'd be going after ceiling with McCarthy.

Unsurprisingly, the talk on Penix dropping has already begun.    I truly believe there are only 2 elite ceiling / decent floor QB's in this class, and Daniels' ceiling and 2024 tape makes him the obvious 3rd choice.    It wouldn't surprise me if there were only 3-4 QB's taken in R1 - which IMO is correct.    The next tier of QB's (Penix included because of his age/injury risk) really will improve the overall depth of the NFL (I can see 7+ QB's from this class being 6-10+ year career backups to fringe starters, way better than the backup/fringe guys we're talking about right now), but I don't see more guys that give you the automatic R1-QB label, based on their tape & age-of-success (late bloomers really get dinged down).    Right now, if I were to guess, I'd say 4 QB's go R1, 3 go in R3-4.    

The R3-4 name you may hear more of soon is Tulane's Michael Pratt.    His Senior Bowl & combine throwing drills likely will get a lot more attention as time goes by.

Edited January 24 by Broncofan

[broncosfan_101]

Just want you guys to know that if JJ McCarthy is the pick at 1.12, I’m gonna have talked myself into loving that pick instantly. I’m probably over-correcting after watching Russ these past couple years, but I am getting straight up aroused watching this kid maneuver in the pocket. He’s got such great feel and footwork back there. Michigan’s o-line was VERY good, so I wouldn’t say I’ve seen him get pressured often, but even when the pocket starts closing in, he seems so unphased. The arm talent is obvious, too. Lots of clips of him rippin ‘em when necessary, but also throwing some changeups. Can he read a defence or process on the fly? Not a clue. But the more I see him, the more old-school scout I become, thinking, ‘****, he just LOOKS like a franchise quarterback.’ 

[grizmo78]

4 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Just want you guys to know that if JJ McCarthy is the pick at 1.12, I’m gonna have talked myself into loving that pick instantly. I’m probably over-correcting after watching Russ these past couple years, but I am getting straight up aroused watching this kid maneuver in the pocket. He’s got such great feel and footwork back there. Michigan’s o-line was VERY good, so I wouldn’t say I’ve seen him get pressured often, but even when the pocket starts closing in, he seems so unphased. The arm talent is obvious, too. Lots of clips of him rippin ‘em when necessary, but also throwing some changeups. Can he read a defence or process on the fly? Not a clue. But the more I see him, the more old-school scout I become, thinking, ‘****, he just LOOKS like a franchise quarterback.’ 

I'm the opposite. McCarthy wasn't asked to do a single thing this year. Like you mentioned his O-line was fantastic, their run game was phenomenal with two great backs, his defense was top notch and he had a fantastic head coach. He never was the reason they won a game and he was never asked to.

There is some raw talent there in addition to only being 21 but he hasn't showed nearly enough to bet on him being a franchise quarterback. If he's around end of the 2nd round (he wont be) that is where I'd take him as a developmental Jordan Love kinda guy. 

[broncosfan_101]

2 minutes ago, grizmo78 said:

I'm the opposite. McCarthy wasn't asked to do a single thing this year. Like you mentioned his O-line was fantastic, their run game was phenomenal with two great backs, his defense was top notch and he had a fantastic head coach. He never was the reason they won a game and he was never asked to.

There is some raw talent there in addition to only being 21 but he hasn't showed nearly enough to bet on him being a franchise quarterback. If he's around end of the 2nd round (he wont be) that is where I'd take him as a developmental Jordan Love kinda guy. 

Totally get it. And I’m not saying that I hope McCarthy is the pick. But I see the physical skills in absolute spades, and I also see that mythical “moxie” that no one can really explain, and if an offensive guru like Sean buys into the idea that he can apply those physical skills into practice when the bullets really start to fly, I’m buying that stock. So anyone who says, ‘nope, I don’t trust his soft skills to translate’, I can’t argue with that. But I see the physical skills, and I trust Sean to judge the mental skills.

[broncos67]

15 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Totally get it. And I’m not saying that I hope McCarthy is the pick. But I see the physical skills in absolute spades, and I also see that mythical “moxie” that no one can really explain, and if an offensive guru like Sean buys into the idea that he can apply those physical skills into practice when the bullets really start to fly, I’m buying that stock. So anyone who says, ‘nope, I don’t trust his soft skills to translate’, I can’t argue with that. But I see the physical skills, and I trust Sean to judge the mental skills.

I think McCarthy has bust written all over him. I'll acknowledge, one area he was exception in is 3rd and distance, where he outperforms every other QB in this class. But there's a few issues : he's very young, so he's going to need more time, which means his salary window is much shorter. He played on a loaded team that had a dominant OL and relied on simply running the ball until McCarthy needed to make a throw. He's a 3rd round pick for me at this stage. I would be furious if we took him at 12 personally.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, broncos67 said:

I think McCarthy has bust written all over him. I'll acknowledge, one area he was exception in is 3rd and distance, where he outperforms every other QB in this class. But there's a few issues : he's very young, so he's going to need more time, which means his salary window is much shorter. He played on a loaded team that had a dominant OL and relied on simply running the ball until McCarthy needed to make a throw. He's a 3rd round pick for me at this stage. I would be furious if we took him at 12 personally.

IMO this is the issue with the draft class - the current state of QB in the league is boosting stock for the draft class rather than true evals.  
 

As much as I thought Will Levis wasn’t worth a 1st based on how raw he was  / similsr Q’s we see in this tier (and remain unanswered), TEN waiting to R2 made it a far more justifiable play.  
 

 Ironically I suspect several of these guys will stick in the league because of how bad QB depth is overall nowadays - but if you’re not a difference making QB it’s not worth the R1 price and team commitment.    PIT being married to Kenny Pickett for 3 years and NE to Mac Jones highlights the downside.   I don’t want QB purgatory but need-driven choices usually extends the purgatory and doesn’t solve it.  

If you pick a late bloomer it’s almost always a low ceiling play that doesn’t move the needle.  The high tools guys who need more time are a far better option but only succeed if you can develop them with a great QB teacher (and still has a high bust risk).    It’s why Maye / Williams get so much love.   I wish there was a 3rd / 4th QB I loved as much this class.   The gap just looks massive.  
 

 

Edited January 25 by Broncofan

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

IMO this is the issue with the draft class - the current state of QB in the league is boosting stock for the draft class rather than true evals.  
 

As much as I thought Will Levis wasn’t worth a 1st based on how raw he was  / similsr Q’s we see in this tier (and remain unanswered), TEN waiting to R2 made it a far more justifiable play.  
 

 Ironically I suspect several of these guys will stick in the league because of how bad QB depth is overall nowadays - but if you’re not a difference making QB it’s not worth the R1 price and team commitment.    PIT being married to Kenny Pickett for 3 years and NE to Mac Jones highlights the downside.   I don’t want QB purgatory but need-driven choices usually extends the purgatory and doesn’t solve it.  

If you pick a late bloomer it’s almost always a low ceiling play that doesn’t move the needle.  The high tools guys who need more time are a far better option but only succeed if you can develop them with a great QB teacher (and still has a high bust risk).    It’s why Maye / Williams get so much love.   I wish there was a 3rd / 4th QB I loved as much this class.   The gap just looks massive.  
 

 

I think there are 4 QBs in that tier two that could be really successful if put in the right situation. JJ needs the Rodgers/Love treatment of sitting for 2-3 years.

Daniels/Penix/Nix all need their own version of the Prescott/Mahomes treatment where they land on a team with established talent and an offensive coach who will create a system that grows with them as they learn. 

[Broncofan]

31 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

I think there are 4 QBs in that tier two that could be really successful if put in the right situation. JJ needs the Rodgers/Love treatment of sitting for 2-3 years.

Daniels/Penix/Nix all need their own version of the Prescott/Mahomes treatment where they land on a team with established talent and an offensive coach who will create a system that grows with them as they learn. 

The problem is that if you draft a QB R1 they won’t sit for 3 years.   Even in GB the plan was to let ARod walk but he then put up 2 MVP years.    I agree with your take that McCarthy needs that type of career arc to succeed but it won’t happen on teams that are QB needy if the R1 pick gets spent.     Still I get the reasoning to go McCarthy far more than go for the late bloomers (Penix doesn’t count as a late bloomer because of his Big 10 success in IND).   At least you’re targeting a huge ceiling (albeit with way lower floor).  
 

I wish I shared your optimism (realizing it’s qualified and not absolute) on Nix.    It would be nice to not have this gap and same discusssion every year.    Once you find the QB so many paths open up to return to sustainable contention.    For all the talk about how talent poor the Chargers are and their cap issues their path is 100x clearer and diverse with a decent GM and HC Harbaugh than ours is presently.   

Edited January 25 by Broncofan