2024 49ers offseason

[y2lamanaki]

1 hour ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Neat.  

Your post says that a team won the superbowl because they paid a big contract to Hakeem Nicks.  I disagree with that stance.  

Neat - you can't read because it says neither of those things and explicitly says the opposite. Note the asterisks friend.

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

42 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

I chose Dante Pettis (6 years ago) as a specific example because he's a player we needed to plug in and play immediately - as we would potentially need to do with an Aiyuk replacement. And I adore Jennings, but the guy hasn't broken 450 yards in a season and is already on contract two. We've developed Aiyuk and Deebo into starting WRs and nobody else. Nobody else is even close. 

I didn't mention Danny Gray because he was a third round pick not intended to start (which is what I was exploring), but both he and Jalen Hurd could certainly be added to the equation for very different reasons, neither reason applying to Brandon Aiyuk, who has shown to have the greatest ability of them all - availability. But - it COULD apply to his replacement. 

Plus - top defenders are in the draft every year if all you need to do is replace a guy on paper. Look at 2020. Javon Kinlaw was in the draft, so we replaced Buckner rather than give him that exorbitant contract. Money saved equalled money earned. 

And those guys all being overpaid at some point means what to me? The argument was that the championship teams didn't have them, and factually all of those players have rings. In addition - every Super Bowl winning team in history has overpaid for a player. Big deal. It's irrelevant to what a team needs to succeed. Guys end up overpaid sometimes. Sounds like Jed's problem more than ours. 

Why is it Purdy and not Aiyuk seen that way? Lazy evaluations of both. But Aiyuk was already productive before Purdy. Certainly at least as productive as Deebo has been outside of a contract year. So it would be much harder to imagine Aiyuk falling off without Purdy rather than the other way around.

The guys covering the WRs making half as much as the WRs is the going rate of player positions. You know who makes even more than the WRs? QBs. Shanahan got to the Super Bowl with Jimmy Garoppolo, so why are you so ready to jettison the less expensive player (Aiyuk) rather than the one who might take up twice his cap space (Purdy)? 

If your argument boils down to "Shanahan's scheme is capable of replacing a WR," "the contract is much higher than the other skill positions," and "great players are available in all drafts" - and as Shanahan has proven he can win quite a lot with a lesser QB than Purdy, why not save all that extra money by not paying Purdy? Then we could pay Ward, Lenoir, Greenlaw, and Hufanga with all that extra cap space. Dobbs is an obviously intelligent QB - why not let him learn the system this year and hand him one of the cheapest starting QB contracts in the league and the keys to the most stacked roster in the league?

It's not an honest question because the answer is the same for both players. You don't and generally can't "just replace" top-level players because guys are "always available" and Shanahan could make it work. Pay the important players, and the #1 WR is an important player. And continuing rewarding your top guys is a great way to continue to build long-term success anyway. 

And I love Deebo as well, but I'm not saving a few bucks on an ever-rising salary cap to keep the guy who's going to miss 2-3 games/year and whose production can fluctuate so much from year to year over the more consistent player in both respects. So if it comes down to one or the other, it should still be an easy choice.

Aiyuk has a 5th year option, and a possible franchise tag.  We don't need to plug and play anyone.  The only player I could even think of that could potentially help the team more next year than Aiyuk would be a young, high end OT.  Teams don't trade LT's because they actually are rare.

I agree about the lazy evaluations.  No need to explain or provide a lazy Deebo evaluation as a response to the lazy Aiyuk and Purdy evaluations. 

It comes down to Aiyuk trying to be paid as the third best receiver, when he is likely the 10th or 12th best receiver.  I am not sure if he is any better than Stephon Diggs, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, AJ Brown, DJ Moore, Jaylen Waddle, Davonta Smith, Nico Collins, Terry McLauren, Aman Ra St. Brown, Michael Pittman, Ceedee lamb, Amari Cooper, Deebo etc.  There seem to be a lot of teams that get similar play from the wide receiver position, and more added every year.  How many teams have LT's better than Trent? Pass rushers better than Bosa?  MLB's better than Warner?  If #1 WR's are so rare, why are there so many?  There are about 20 guys in Aiyuk's tier. 

Remember that thing you said about lazy evaluations of Purdy? This Dobbs v Purdy comparison is lazy.  Purdy is better at football than Dobbs.  I don't need to explain why.  I understand the concept of positional value.  I simply don't feel value and scarcity line up at the current WR market.  

 

I am saying Aiyuk is a very good player asking to be paid like a great player at a premium position.   I am also saying WR's are not as rare as people are saying.   WR's are available every year.  Look at Diggs, Hill, Brown and Diggs again.  Not many top T's ever find the market.  Trent only found the market because he had cancer. 

I am just not sure if Aiyuk is a cornerstone piece like Trent Williams, Joey Bosa, Fred Warner, or Brock Purdy.  With the WR market the way it is, you'd have to pay most starting receivers like top receivers and franchise cornerstones.  Just not sure if the team can swing all of that without creating major roster holes.  

I just can't shake the feeling that the Aiyuk deal is going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back. 

Edited Wednesday at 08:41 PM by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420

[JIllg]

1 hour ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

There are a lot of good points here.  I would add LT to the list of positions up there that need to have a prime talent.  

Although I feel your points are valid, I am not sure if the playmaking 1WR is as rare as it once was.  The spread offense has gotten these guys a lot of reps from a young age.  I also worry that the  10th through 20th guys are receiving the Jay Cutler/Sam Bradford treatment.  Average starters who receive premium pay due to positional value.  Aiyuk is a really good player, but he is also surrounded by other guys that draw a lot of attention.  Would he be as productive when he is surrounded by draft guys rather than tested vets?

I think that signing Aiyuk to a long term deal likely means that there will be a rebuild.  Aiyuk, Purdy, and Bosa would make up about 40% of the salary cap.  The team could very well be built the way you describe, but it would involve letting go a lot of our favorite players.  Deebo, Trent, Juice, CMC, and Kittle can't last forever though.  The new strategy would likely involve adding a lot of young guys, then paying the most productive ones.  Carry over cap space for a couple of years to make another run once the new assets are stacked together. 

 

I am not sure if we can string it out and replace the unicorns one guy at a time.  The coffers are getting pretty low. 

These are also salient points. Even though Aiyuk was one of the top 5 guys in the league last year on a per target basis, it was one year and it was on a smaller number of targets. I'm not willing to give him more than 30 million myself, and I don't think that he's asking for more than that given the information that we have. I should have been more clear on that point - I do not want to pay him Justin Jefferson money. 

I can even follow the hesitation at giving that and the worry that paying Aiyuk means not being able to pounce on, say, Tristan Wirfs, if he becomes available. This is fair.

But for me, the point of paying Aiyuk is to ensure that in the mid-term future as CMC and Kittle age and the team is unlikely willing to give Deebo a third contract due to inconsistency/unavailability is that you have a certainty at receiver that you can rely on and build the receiving group around. A receiver that brings excellence at the most valuable routes in the route tree deep and down the outside and doesn't have to be protected from press coverage. That's a difficult skillset to find. It's one that will become vanishingly difficult to find if you don't have a top 10 pick.

Anyhow, I have spent enough time on this and I would prefer not to monopolize all conversation with rehashing of similar points made by other posters.

[y2lamanaki]

43 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

I agree about the lazy evaluations.  No need to explain or provide a lazy Deebo evaluation as a response to the lazy Aiyuk and Purdy evaluations. 

Okay, I'm done after this because it's clear you just want to argue, and I mostly stay away from online discussions with 49ers fans because it is truly one of the worst fanbases you can encounter and I am in exactly that situation now. But "lazy Deebo evaluation?" Go home, you're drunk. 

The factual things I said about Deebo:

-Deebo and Aiyuk are the only players we developed into starters. Duh.

-Aiyuk has been at least as productive as Deebo outside of one contract year. Fact. Aiyuk outproduced Deebo in 2020, 2022, and 2023 in receptions, yards from scrimmage, and total first downs, and only finished behind Deebo in total TDs in 2021 and 2023. Deebo's contract year was 2021. 

-Deebo will miss 2/3 games per year. Fact. He missed two last year, missed four in 2022, missed one in 2021, missed nine in 2020, and missed one in 2019. I count the 2020 COVID season as an outlier. I'll let you handle the math on the rest.

-Deebo's production can fluctuate from year to year. Fact. First - Deebo has never come within 17 receptions, 653 yards from scrimmage, 2 total TDs, or 25 total first downs from his 2021 contract year in ANY season, nor had he ever before or has he ever again since reached his YPR and YPC from 2021, so obviously that means his production has fluctuated. But even the difference between 2022 and 2023 after the contract show two different Deebos.

Those are 100% of the comments I made about Deebo, and they were all blatantly obvious observations to the point where I can't imagine how any of it could be controversial. The only thing lazy about my evaluation is that I didn't mention how lazy Deebo himself admitted he looked on tape in 2022.

Edited Wednesday at 08:54 PM by y2lamanaki

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

17 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Okay, I'm done after this because it's clear you just want to argue, and I mostly stay away from online discussions with 49ers fans because it is truly one of the worst fanbases you can encounter and I am in exactly that situation now. But "lazy Deebo evaluation?" Go home, you're drunk. 

The factual things I said about Deebo:

-Deebo and Aiyuk are the only players we developed into starters. Duh.

-Aiyuk has been at least as productive as Deebo outside of one contract year. Fact. Aiyuk outproduced Deebo in 2020, 2022, and 2023 in receptions, yards from scrimmage, and total first downs, and only finished behind Deebo in total TDs in 2021 and 2023. Deebo's contract year was 2021. 

-Deebo will miss 2/3 games per year. Fact. He missed two last year, missed four in 2022, missed one in 2021, missed nine in 2020, and missed one in 2019. I count the 2020 COVID season as an outlier. I'll let you handle the math on the rest.

-Deebo's production can fluctuate from year to year. Fact. First - Deebo has never come within 17 receptions, 653 yards from scrimmage, 2 total TDs, or 25 total first downs from his 2021 contract year in ANY season, nor had he ever before or has he ever again since reached his YPR and YPC from 2021, so obviously that means his production has fluctuated. But even the difference between 2022 and 2023 after the contract show two different Deebos.

Those are 100% of the comments I made about Deebo, and they were all blatantly obvious observations to the point where I can't imagine how any of it could be controversial. The only thing lazy about my evaluation is that I didn't mention how lazy Deebo himself admitted he looked on tape in 2022.

This will also be my last response to your posts.  I don't appreciate the insults, nor do I appreciate the insults to the fan base as a whole.  I generally love talking football with 9er fans, especially on this board.  Even if I disagree, the other person usually brings up some good points.  

Any Deebo evaluation without mentioning his physicality, skill set, versatility, or the chunk of playbook he opens up are lazy.   

Deebo's contract was due two years before Aiyuk's and before Purdy was in the building.  

It's not controversial, it is off topic.  I don't think unloading Deebo now makes the team better.  I am simply not sure of the point you are trying to make with the comparison of Deebo to Aiyuk.

All the points about Aiyuk being hard to replace are also true of Deebo being hard to replace.  Every dude on the offense besides our 4 Jags on the O-line are hard to replace, but we will have to do it at some point.

Signing Deebo helped the team get to a Superbowl and NFCCG.  

I am not just trying to argue, I have reservations about the team signing Aiyuk at thereabouts 30 mil per year.  

 

[Forge]

Absolutely no hesitation for me in giving Aiyuk a big deal. Deebo shouldn't be long for this team one way or the other. I expect 5 years of high level play from Aiyuk moving forward. 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

48 minutes ago, JIllg said:

These are also salient points. Even though Aiyuk was one of the top 5 guys in the league last year on a per target basis, it was one year and it was on a smaller number of targets. I'm not willing to give him more than 30 million myself, and I don't think that he's asking for more than that given the information that we have. I should have been more clear on that point - I do not want to pay him Justin Jefferson money. 

I can even follow the hesitation at giving that and the worry that paying Aiyuk means not being able to pounce on, say, Tristan Wirfs, if he becomes available. This is fair.

But for me, the point of paying Aiyuk is to ensure that in the mid-term future as CMC and Kittle age and the team is unlikely willing to give Deebo a third contract due to inconsistency/unavailability is that you have a certainty at receiver that you can rely on and build the receiving group around. A receiver that brings excellence at the most valuable routes in the route tree deep and down the outside and doesn't have to be protected from press coverage. That's a difficult skillset to find. It's one that will become vanishingly difficult to find if you don't have a top 10 pick.

Anyhow, I have spent enough time on this and I would prefer not to monopolize all conversation with rehashing of similar points made by other posters.

I like the idea of the Aiyuk bridge, I just didn't think it would cost so damned much. 

This is as close to 50/50 on a 49ers decision as I have been for quite some time.  Keeping guys who are clear top 5 at non premium positions are easy decisions.  Paying Purdy is becoming a no brainer. We kept Deebo because he was irreplaceable (but I don't think we'll give him a 3rd contract).  Letting Tomlinson, AA, and McGlinchy were easy decisions.  

The numbers last year were impressive.  The blocking and skill set also tell the same story, but he does disappear at times and is a lot better against man than zone.

I am not sure the ripple effects this decision will have, but I feel that it might be the most consequential contract decision yet.  

 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

9 minutes ago, Forge said:

Absolutely no hesitation for me in giving Aiyuk a big deal. Deebo shouldn't be long for this team one way or the other. I expect 5 years of high level play from Aiyuk moving forward. 

Cutting Deebo would cost more than it would save.  Cutting him before 6/1/2024 (not possible anymore) would save 21.8, but cost 21.6 in dead cap.  Cutting him prior to 6/1/2025 it would save 6.6, but cost 15 mil in dead space.  I don't expect him to be here past 2025 though.  

I don't think cutting him or trading him for a 5th make the team better.  

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10119543-nfl-exec-eyes-49ers-deebo-samuel-as-trade-cut-candidate-after-season-amid-rumors#:~:text=Samuel%2C 28%2C signed a three,now under contract through 2025.

Edited Wednesday at 09:45 PM by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Cutting Deebo would cost more than it would save.  Cutting him before 6/1/2024 (not possible anymore) would save 21.8, but cost 21.6 in dead cap.  Cutting him prior to 6/1/2025 it would save 6.6, but cost 15 mil in dead space.  I don't expect him to be here past 2025 though.  

I don't think cutting him or trading him for a 5th make the team better.  

They should have traded him earlier this year, but I digress. 

He's gone next year or the year after. No big deal. He shouldn't have a long term future on the team. 

[757-NINER]

The crux of the issue is they should have gotten BA resigned before both ARSB & Jefferson signed their deals.

You can't really know what goes on behind the scene but it seems like we NEVER get ahead of these things.

We sit back and let the market dictate how we want to go about it instead of being proactive.

If we had made signing BA a top priority early, we wouldn't be where we are now ...debating on paying him close to 30 mil per.

Edited Thursday at 12:13 AM by 757-NINER

[WhyAmIHere]

4 hours ago, 757-NINER said:

The crux of the issue is they should have gotten BA resigned before both ARSB & Jefferson signed their deals.

You can't really know what goes on behind the scene but it seems like we NEVER get ahead of these things.

We sit back and let the market dictate how we want to go about it instead of being proactive.

If we had made signing BA a top priority early, we wouldn't be where we are now ...debating on paying him close to 30 mil per.

we have no idea if Aiyuk wanted to wait for the Jefferson deal - my guess is his agent is pretty good and probably wanted to wait until that deal was done. 

[GW21]

14 hours ago, Forge said:

Absolutely no hesitation for me in giving Aiyuk a big deal. Deebo shouldn't be long for this team one way or the other. I expect 5 years of high level play from Aiyuk moving forward. 

Imagine if we would have accepted that deal from the Jets for number 10 and had Garrett Wilson on this team. That would have been cool. 

Granted inside is 20/20 and Deebo was just coming off of his huge all-pro season. If he was still putting up those numbers then I feel like this Aiyuk talk might be a little different. I really hope Deebo goes out and has another monster year this year. It’d benefit everyone. Niners get better value for him when we move on, team gets better for the 2024 season, Deebo gets more money when he gets moved (probably).

[757-NINER]

5 hours ago, GW21 said:

Imagine if we would have accepted that deal from the Jets for number 10 and had Garrett Wilson on this team. That would have been cool. 

Granted inside is 20/20 and Deebo was just coming off of his huge all-pro season. If he was still putting up those numbers then I feel like this Aiyuk talk might be a little different. I really hope Deebo goes out and has another monster year this year. It’d benefit everyone. Niners get better value for him when we move on, team gets better for the 2024 season, Deebo gets more money when he gets moved (probably).

One thing for sure, the effort from him needs to better in 2024.

Especially when he doesn't have the ball.

JT blasted him all year for his effort when used as a decoy.

I have to think Shanny & Hankerson both see it and hopefully have called him on it.

Film don't lie...

[adamq]

It's so easy to look back and point out all of the successful draft picks in that 2nd to 3rd round range, even the back of the first.. but the actual hit rate is low, and it takes time for most of these guys to actually develop into a true difference maker. Aiyuk is a prime example

2021 outside of the top 10

No. 20: Kadarius Toney, Giants
No. 27: Rashod Bateman, Ravens
No. 34: Elijah Moore, Jets
No. 49: Rondale Moore, Cardinals
No. 56: D’Wayne Eskridge, Seahawks
No. 57: Tutu Atwell, Rams
No. 59: Terrace Marshall Jr., Panthers
No. 77: Josh Palmer, Chargers
No. 82: Dyami Brown, WFT
No. 85: Amari Rodgers, Packers
No. 89: Nico Collins, Texans
No. 91: Anthony Schwartz, Browns
No. 109: Dez Fitzpatrick, Titans
No. 112: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions
No. 129: Jaelon Darden, Buccaneers

 

Nico finally broke out after 3 years.. and good luck finding the next ARSB. The rest are WR4s or nothing 

 

2022

No. 11: Chris Olave, Saints (signed)
No. 12: Jameson Williams, Lions (signed)
No. 16: Jahan Dotson, Commanders
No. 18: Treylon Burks, Titans (signed)
No. 34: Christian Watson, Packers
No. 43: Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants
No. 44: John Metchie III, Texans (signed)
No. 50: Tyquan Thornton, Patriots
No. 52: George Pickens, Steelers (signed)
No. 53: Alec Pierce, Colts (signed)
No. 54: Skyy Moore, Chiefs (signed)
No. 71: Velus Jones, Bears (signed)
No. 88: Jalen Tolbert, Cowboys (signed)
No. 99: David Bell, Browns (signed)
No. 105: Danny Gray, 49ers
No. 125: Erik Ezukanma, Dolphins (signed)
No. 132: Romeo Doubs, Packers
No. 138: Calvin Austin III, Steelers
No. 148: Khalil Shakir, Bills (signed)

Olave at 11 and then a whole lot of disappointments outside of.. Pickens? And he isn't Aiyuk. Dotson is a bad 2nd WR, decent WR3. Jamo is a gadget player who can also run super fast in a straight line. Watson can't stay healthy & is a limited WR when he does play. The rest are again, useless compared to what you need out of a WR1.

 

2023

1.21   SEA  Jaxon Smith-Njigba
1.21    LAC    Quentin Johnston    
1.22    BAL    Zay Flowers    
1.23    MIN    Jordan Addison    
2.08    CAR    Jonathan Mingo    
2.19    GB    Jayden Reed    
2.24    KC    Rashee Rice    
2.32    DEN    Marvin Mims    
3.06    HOU    Nathaniel Dell    
3.10    NYG    Jalin Hyatt    
3.11    CLE    Cedric Tillman    
3.16    IND    Josh Downs   
3.31    ARI    Michael Wilson    
3.37    LVR    Tre Tucker    
4.23    LAC    Derius Davis    
4.29    CIN    Charlie Jones    
4.31    CHI    Tyler Scott    
5.15    BUF    Justin Shorter    
5.24    GB    Dontayvion Wicks    
5.42    LAR    Puka Nacua    
6.08    JAC    Parker Washington    
6.10    NE    Kayshon Boutte   

 

Jayden Reed is a nice player, so is Zay Flowers.. Addison could be good, same for JSN and Downs... Rice is a head case that in my opinion was more a product of the system than anything.. but even if you like him, Rice is still nowhere near Aiyuk right now. Puka!

 

So yeah.. replacing a WR1 is easy if you pick in the top 10.. usually

Edited Friday at 02:57 AM by adamq

[StevenK]

Didn’t see anyone mention it, but Aiyuk is back at the facility today! Has to be good news!