Amon-Ra St. Brown contract extension

[Just Want A Title]

9 hours ago, detfan782004 said:

Wasnt talking Goff. I think they get Goff done easier. Hooker is not an answer. 

You are spot on with Hendon Hooker.  He is more of a question at this point.  He has a potentially high ceiling but it is tough to tell what that is right now.

[detfan782004]

3 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

You are spot on with Hendon Hooker.  He is more of a question at this point.  He has a potentially high ceiling but it is tough to tell what that is right now.

I want to see him get a ton of snaps in preaseaon. Like 95% 

[Karnage84]

23 hours ago, fattlipp said:

Hooker Time….

What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas...

[Sllim Pickens]

22 hours ago, detfan782004 said:

I want to see him get a ton of snaps in preaseaon. Like 95% 

Agreed.  We have to see if there is a future there either with our team or as trade bait.  It will be a big camp/pre-season for Hooker.  

[idoubtit]

Time for more love/hate for the stat guys. According to https://espnanalytics.com/rtm Raymond is our best receiver coming in at number 12 overall. None of our other receivers crack the top 40. ARSB-44, Laporta-53, and Williams-127. Reynolds was 103. 

I'll be the first to criticize the methodology (my big two with these numbers is that they don't know progressions and their definition of open) but usually there is some truth in the numbers. If the Lions look at these numbers at all though it seems like they will still be looking at WR early in the draft and it may explain why they haven't come to an agreement with ARSB yet.

[BigC421/]

26 minutes ago, idoubtit said:

Time for more love/hate for the stat guys. According to https://espnanalytics.com/rtm Raymond is our best receiver coming in at number 12 overall. None of our other receivers crack the top 40. ARSB-44, Laporta-53, and Williams-127. Reynolds was 103. 

I'll be the first to criticize the methodology (my big two with these numbers is that they don't know progressions and their definition of open) but usually there is some truth in the numbers. If the Lions look at these numbers at all though it seems like they will still be looking at WR early in the draft and it may explain why they haven't come to an agreement with ARSB yet.

Anyone using those “analytics” as anything other that toilet paper should be fired immediately 

[Karnage84]

30 minutes ago, idoubtit said:

Time for more love/hate for the stat guys. According to https://espnanalytics.com/rtm Raymond is our best receiver coming in at number 12 overall. None of our other receivers crack the top 40. ARSB-44, Laporta-53, and Williams-127. Reynolds was 103. 

I'll be the first to criticize the methodology (my big two with these numbers is that they don't know progressions and their definition of open) but usually there is some truth in the numbers. If the Lions look at these numbers at all though it seems like they will still be looking at WR early in the draft and it may explain why they haven't come to an agreement with ARSB yet.

Yeah, I don't know how much I would buy into this. Guys who are utilized as a reliable underneath options are going to get penalized over guys who are used downhill. 

[idoubtit]

40 minutes ago, BigC421/ said:

Anyone using those “analytics” as anything other that toilet paper should be fired immediately 

I am an extreme skeptic when it comes to a lot of analytics but I NEVER throw it all out. The key is to see how they interpret data.

PFF does an annual QB study and one of there measures is accuracy and they related it to a "bullseye" on the receiver and how far away from that bullseye the pass was. The problem is that a good QB throws away from the defense. So if a receiver curls and stops, and the defender is closing from the receivers left, I want the throw to the receivers right, even though it is supposedly off target. QBs who put the ball where only their guy can get it are doing the right thing.

So I take the big picture stats with a grain of salt but I don't just throw it away. I would hope the Lions are looking at all of it and then interpreting it correctly.

[idoubtit]

39 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Yeah, I don't know how much I would buy into this. Guys who are utilized as a reliable underneath options are going to get penalized over guys who are used downhill. 

They say the "open" determination is made 0.2 seconds before the throw. If that is the case I have no idea how they grade late developing routes, like most of Williams' would be.

[BigC421/]

5 hours ago, idoubtit said:

I am an extreme skeptic when it comes to a lot of analytics but I NEVER throw it all out. The key is to see how they interpret data.

PFF does an annual QB study and one of there measures is accuracy and they related it to a "bullseye" on the receiver and how far away from that bullseye the pass was. The problem is that a good QB throws away from the defense. So if a receiver curls and stops, and the defender is closing from the receivers left, I want the throw to the receivers right, even though it is supposedly off target. QBs who put the ball where only their guy can get it are doing the right thing.

So I take the big picture stats with a grain of salt but I don't just throw it away. I would hope the Lions are looking at all of it and then interpreting it correctly.

The more interpreting is involved the further you get from it actually being real analytics.  One of the main reasons I’ve never believed in analytics for player performance in football.  They can work for others decision making aspects of the game that come down to hard math.  They can work for some other sports.  They are mostly useless in player evaluations in football.  There’s no hard data it’s just someone’s opinion.  These grades , like pff’s are little else than some unqualified individual doing play by play scouting reports and expressing there opinion of the play threw a hard number rather than using there words and nuance.  

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, BigC421/ said:

The more interpreting is involved the further you get from it actually being real analytics.  One of the main reasons I’ve never believed in analytics for player performance in football.  They can work for others decision making aspects of the game that come down to hard math.  They can work for some other sports.  They are mostly useless in player evaluations in football.  There’s no hard data it’s just someone’s opinion.  These grades , like pff’s are little else than some unqualified individual doing play by play scouting reports and expressing there opinion of the play threw a hard number rather than using there words and nuance.  

Definitely not useless.   And unless you watch every game, you have to use some if to help in player evaluations.  Its hard to compare a WR like ARSB and Jamo because they are very different WRs.  You could use traditional stats like catches, TD's, yards, average yards per catch etc but it doesn't tell you how good either are at their job they are asked to do. And similarly comparing guys who get to play with Mahomes or Josh Allen is different than a guy playing with Bryce Young.  Having things that can help sort how open guys get, what type of routes they run and how crisply they run those routes, and what types of catches they typically are asked to make (deep threats will obviously have a lower catch percentage than guys who specialize in shorter routes). Analytics and grades are very helpful in player evaluations as long as you understand what you are looking at. 

I think analytics and grade such as this and PFF are helpful, especially for some of us who aren't former players or coaches and don't have time to watch every game from every player.  And unsurprisingly, usually a good analytic will have the god WRs rise to the top.  In this one from ESPN, Raymond being so high is an anomaly, as is ARSB being so low.  That makes me question the validity of their ranking system.  Maybe Raymond is so high because he runs so few routes compared to others and is typically a 4th WR, and therefore going against 4th CBs. Raymond is 4th in all of WR in 2023 in catch % of balls thrown his way so that likely leads to him being higher on the list than his production says he should be.  ARSB is also pretty high in the catch percentage so I am not sure how they graded him so low.  Maybe he isn't really as open as we think and Goff is just super accurate but from watching games I would say that can't be it.  So I do think there are flaws with this analytic/grading system, but other than a couple of guys, it seems to have those who are considered great WRs at the top.  

[Louis Friend]

10 hours ago, BigC421/ said:

The more interpreting is involved the further you get from it actually being real analytics.  One of the main reasons I’ve never believed in analytics for player performance in football.  They can work for others decision making aspects of the game that come down to hard math.  They can work for some other sports.  They are mostly useless in player evaluations in football.  There’s no hard data it’s just someone’s opinion.  These grades , like pff’s are little else than some unqualified individual doing play by play scouting reports and expressing there opinion of the play threw a hard number rather than using there words and nuance.  

I prefer watching film. I don’t care if a guy 15lbs lighter can run .05 secs faster in shorts or does 2 more 225lb lifts. Can they identify what is developing? Can they tackle properly? How do they use leverage? Are they instinctive? Do they love the game? I haven’t found any formula that beats tape as of yet. Hell, a few people didn’t think Brian Branch would be a top player because “he’s slow”. I can respect that analytics can find value in certain skills, but they can’t trump film. Not yet. Probably why my players grades are vastly different from other people’s. 

[Karnage84]

8 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

I prefer watching film. I don’t care if a guy 15lbs lighter can run .05 secs faster in shorts or does 2 more 225lb lifts. Can they identify what is developing? Can they tackle properly? How do they use leverage? Are they instinctive? Do they love the game? I haven’t found any formula that beats tape as of yet. Hell, a few people didn’t think Brian Branch would be a top player because “he’s slow”. I can respect that analytics can find value in certain skills, but they can’t trump film. Not yet. Probably why my players grades are vastly different from other people’s. 

I'm just watching NFL Stock Exchange EDGE rankings and they're discussing Darius Robinson.

He's ranked #6/#7 Edge on the respective lists of Connor/Trevor. One comment was "he's a top 75 player but the first round talk is crazy". 

How do you view him based on his tape given how his athletic profile is considered to be limited?

[Louis Friend]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

I'm just watching NFL Stock Exchange EDGE rankings and they're discussing Darius Robinson.

He's ranked #6/#7 Edge on the respective lists of Connor/Trevor. One comment was "he's a top 75 player but the first round talk is crazy". 

How do you view him based on his tape given how his athletic profile is considered to be limited?

I view Robinson as a second round talent, as of right now. He seems to do most of his work overpowering guys (probably because of starting at DT), not elusively getting by them. He doesn’t have the fluidity, twitch or agility of other elite edge guys. But he plays to his strengths and finds way to get things done. He doesn’t give up on plays. I think if the Lions are looking for more of those interchangeable inside/outside DL, Robinson is a great fit. But he’s not an athletic freak pass rusher. I think highly of Robinson but agree with the “not first round” sentiment. With picking 29 and not knowing who else is on the board, I think he could be in play between picks 29 and 61.

However, I don’t think Jackson Powers-Johnson is a first round player, and don’t think Quinyon Mitchell is a top 10 player in the draft. So again, my rankings don’t match others. I think both players are very good, but I think people latched onto their names earlier based on workouts and just run with it. 

[Just Want A Title]

9 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

I view Robinson as a second round talent, as of right now. He seems to do most of his work overpowering guys (probably because of starting at DT), not elusively getting by them. He doesn’t have the fluidity, twitch or agility of other elite edge guys. But he plays to his strengths and finds way to get things done. He doesn’t give up on plays. I think if the Lions are looking for more of those interchangeable inside/outside DL, Robinson is a great fit. But he’s not an athletic freak pass rusher. I think highly of Robinson but agree with the “not first round” sentiment. With picking 29 and not knowing who else is on the board, I think he could be in play between picks 29 and 61.

However, I don’t think Jackson Powers-Johnson is a first round player, and don’t think Quinyon Mitchell is a top 10 player in the draft. So again, my rankings don’t match others. I think both players are very good, but I think people latched onto their names earlier based on workouts and just run with it. 

In most years players who are picked at 29 don't have legit first-round grades.  Darius Robinson would make an impact because of his power, length and high-revving motor.  One thing to consider when projecting Darius Robinson is that he only played DE for a year so he will get better as he gains experience.  Denico Autry's production under Terrell Williams is a good projection for him.  Jackson Powers-Johnson may have so-so lengthy but he is just a naturally good football player.  Like Darius Robinson, he is somewhat in inexperienced playing mostly RG as a sophomore and C as a Junior but still managed to win the Rimington Trophy.

I could see Darius Robinson emerging as a rookie starter but he wouldn't be forced into a starting role unless there was an injury.  Jackson Powers Johnson would have a tougher path to a starting job but he still has a ton of long-term potential.  When he does break into the starting lineup, he will probably stay there for quite a while.

Edited April 5 by Just Want A Title