The window is 24 and 25!!!

[Mazrimiv]

9 hours ago, Rosser80 said:

Doubs is one of Love's favorite targets. We're splitting hairs here TBH and need to keep both.

We really aren't. IMO retaining Tom is a much higher priority. Barring injury, I'd put the odds of Doubs getting a second contract in GB at maybe 70%.  I'd put Tom at 99%.

Not having "favorite" targets is a big part of what made Love's 2023 season so successful. I like Doubs as a player, but I don't view him as a "must keep" the way I view Tom. If Doubs posts 75/1100 in 2024, do you want to extend him at 20M+ AAV?  I don't.

[spilltray]

9 hours ago, Rosser80 said:

Doubs is one of Love's favorite targets. We're splitting hairs here TBH and need to keep both.

Doubs is a nice player but not one I'm excited about resigning. Personally the only WR on the roster I'd really want to keep around a second contract is Reed. a couple healthy seasons and maybe Watson can join him.

At the end of the day, Doubs is more like Lazard than a guy who makes things happen in their own right.

[Mazrimiv]

I'd assume two of the current WR group will remain in GB on fairly expensive second contracts.  Not market resetting deals, but still expensive.  Reed seems most likely to be one of those, but it's anyone's guess who gets the other between Watson, Doubs and Wicks. All bets are off if Gute spends a day 2 pick at WR next month.

My guess is that GB will head into 2025 with Doubs and Watson both set to hit FA in 2026.

[Mdpackfan22]

Part of what made our rebuild so quick is the Davante Adams and Rodgers extra. Having an extra 1st and 3 extra 2nds allowed us to re-stock the cup board. I hope Gute has recognized this and begins to start trading young talented guys away a year early who will not be able to afford. Prime candidates for this would be Doubs, Watson and Rasheed Walker potentially depending on if we take an OL high or not. 

[Packer_ESP]

20 hours ago, wgbeethree said:

As far as I've always known. 

A "nitch" is a recessed shelf in a wall.

A "niche" is either an ideal situation or a very specific product for a very specific market.

The second meaning is just a metaphorical version of the first, that's where it comes from.

[Rainmaker90]

Almost our entire offense was made up of 1st-2nd year starters, including our QB who played as good as anyone in the 2nd half of the year. 
 

And our window is 2 years… Absolutely ridiculous 

[DWhitehurst]

Fwiw, I'm curious as to what Gutekunst thinks the peak of their current contention window is and how that might influence how he approaches this upcoming draft, e.g., quality via trade ups vs. quantity via trade downs vs. some bit of both? I'm guessing a bit of both, though maybe it's just my bias since I think 2025 will be the peak of their current contention window. 

[mikemike778]

23 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

It is a two year window cos the cap assigned for the offence is tiny. It is virtually the same that we are spending on our dead cap!!!! In future years we won't be so fortunate to have such a low cap on our offence. 4 out of 5 of our o-line are on rookie contracts, all of our WR are on rookie contracts and same with our TE's, come 2026 most of these contracts will be up and we'll have some difficult choices to make.

While the window will always be open while Love stays good/great the best opportunity is over the next two years. In the same way Joe Burrow will always have an opportunity to win one with the Bengals but the prime opportunity for that might have passed as he is on big contract his stud WR1 is on a cheap deal but not for much longer and WR2 now wants to be traded for a big deal. We won't be facing those kind of problems for a couple of years. When those problems appear our ability to win will diminish a bit but not disappear.

 

You do know that there is a draft every year and all the players you sign get a rookie contract.

Absolutely, the low cap hits present us with an opportunity in terms of cap space.  If Gutey stinks the place out in the next two drafts then its going to create some issues with cap hits. If he doesn't then we should have the benefit of a Love who should be better in 2026 than 2024 who should have even more chemistry with his receivers and we may have a better balanced defense in tune with Hafley's system.

We don't know what will happen but it isn't a 2 year window and anyone who thinks it is (which is not going to be Gute) will make bad decisions. 

 

[Brit Pack]

1 hour ago, mikemike778 said:

You do know that there is a draft every year and all the players you sign get a rookie contract.

While Gute might be good/great there is no guarantee that the draft picks coming in will be as great as the players he is letting walk

Our offence is at a ridiculously low cap number now and for the next couple of years. Taking the top 20 players under contract at the moment for 2024 they account for 21.95% of the cap and in 2025 they account for about the same as well with only Myers as a significant potential FA loss. That gives us a massive edge over most of the NFL. Regardless of how well Gute drafts, those low cap numbers will not be the case in the future unless he intends not to re-sign any of the quality players he has drafted. 

This is a golden opportunity, call it a mega window opening, where our cap situation affords us flexibility, the stars have aligned and I'm sure Gute knows that these instances don't come around very often
 

 

[Old Guy]

6 hours ago, Mdpackfan22 said:

Part of what made our rebuild so quick is the Davante Adams and Rodgers extra. Having an extra 1st and 3 extra 2nds allowed us to re-stock the cup board. I hope Gute has recognized this and begins to start trading young talented guys away a year early who will not be able to afford. Prime candidates for this would be Doubs, Watson and Rasheed Walker potentially depending on if we take an OL high or not. 

Adams was on his third contract and Rodgers was on at least his fourth. In order to trade either of the guys you mentioned, they'd have to ball out next year and we'd have to be in a position to be able to move on from them. 

Our rebuild happened quickly because of Jordan Love. If you don't get the quarterback position right, none of the rest matters much. 

Edited March 24 by Old Guy

[Mdpackfan22]

1 minute ago, Old Guy said:

Adams was on his third contract and Rodgers was on at last his fourth. In order to trade either of the guys you mentioned, they'd have to ball out next year and we'd have to be in a position to be able to move on from them. 

Our rebuild happened quickly because of Jordan Love. If you don't get the quarterback position right, none of the rest matters much. 

Watson, if healthy, I could see potentially putting together 2 dominant seasons. Doubs has potential to be an upper end #2. Both should have decent trade value. Watson is a tag and trade candidate. I see us only keeping 2 out of Watson, Doubs, Reed and Wicks. I would prefer to keep Wicks and Reed 

[craig]

Time and performance will tell.  But I don't necessarily assume any of Watson, Doubs, Wicks, or Reed will become overwhelming contracts.  Nor that any will be irreplaceable. 

• Obviously Watson has the ceiling to become really expensive, but health remains to be seen, as does balance, hands, and finesse. 
• Doubs, he's an NFL player, but there's nothing exceptional or high-price about him.  Let him go and replace him, no problem.  Keep him, he's not going to be a cap-buster.  
• Wicks, maybe he'll be good.  But not sure how high his ceiling is?  Again, health-permitting he's going to be worth a second contract, definitely.  But like Doubs, solid all-around player, but not sure he's got the special or the speed to become a cap-buster type guy?  Hope I'm wrong and he becomes so Davante-esque that he commands Davante value.  
• Reed, we'll see how he holds up to some years of pounding.  Very good player, he's going to get a 2nd contract health permitting.  But as a smaller slot type guy, I'm not sure he's going to become a cap-buster type?
• I guess I'm kinda thinking we'll have a collection of good receivers; targets will get distributed, rather than dominantly focused to one or two guys; unless Watson steps up we're not likely to have one Superstar gets-first-target-all-the-time stuff like Davante became to Rodgers.  MLF loves to run a lot, and also has Jacobs, Musgrave, and Kraft grabbing targets as well.  So I'm not guessing any individual is going to get huge targets or huge stats, or huge Superstar-esque 2nd contract.  

[Rosser80]

7 hours ago, craig said:

Time and performance will tell.  But I don't necessarily assume any of Watson, Doubs, Wicks, or Reed will become overwhelming contracts.  Nor that any will be irreplaceable. 

• Obviously Watson has the ceiling to become really expensive, but health remains to be seen, as does balance, hands, and finesse. 
• Doubs, he's an NFL player, but there's nothing exceptional or high-price about him.  Let him go and replace him, no problem.  Keep him, he's not going to be a cap-buster.  
• Wicks, maybe he'll be good.  But not sure how high his ceiling is?  Again, health-permitting he's going to be worth a second contract, definitely.  But like Doubs, solid all-around player, but not sure he's got the special or the speed to become a cap-buster type guy?  Hope I'm wrong and he becomes so Davante-esque that he commands Davante value.  
• Reed, we'll see how he holds up to some years of pounding.  Very good player, he's going to get a 2nd contract health permitting.  But as a smaller slot type guy, I'm not sure he's going to become a cap-buster type?
• I guess I'm kinda thinking we'll have a collection of good receivers; targets will get distributed, rather than dominantly focused to one or two guys; unless Watson steps up we're not likely to have one Superstar gets-first-target-all-the-time stuff like Davante became to Rodgers.  MLF loves to run a lot, and also has Jacobs, Musgrave, and Kraft grabbing targets as well.  So I'm not guessing any individual is going to get huge targets or huge stats, or huge Superstar-esque 2nd contract.  

This is honestly why I think we're pretty much set at WR. Each guy fills a role and does so(at the moment) at a high level, but not so high that they're going to be a "cap-buster" as you put it; anyone goes down and Bo Melton or Malik Heath takes their place. We're probably going to draft another WR even though we really don't need to; anything we get from Watson is gravy at this point TBH. We are literally 6 deep at WR IMHO and that includes Watson.

 

Edited March 25 by Rosser80

[Mazrimiv]

20 hours ago, craig said:

Time and performance will tell.  But I don't necessarily assume any of Watson, Doubs, Wicks, or Reed will become overwhelming contracts.  Nor that any will be irreplaceable. 

• Obviously Watson has the ceiling to become really expensive, but health remains to be seen, as does balance, hands, and finesse. 
• Doubs, he's an NFL player, but there's nothing exceptional or high-price about him.  Let him go and replace him, no problem.  Keep him, he's not going to be a cap-buster.  
• Wicks, maybe he'll be good.  But not sure how high his ceiling is?  Again, health-permitting he's going to be worth a second contract, definitely.  But like Doubs, solid all-around player, but not sure he's got the special or the speed to become a cap-buster type guy?  Hope I'm wrong and he becomes so Davante-esque that he commands Davante value.  
• Reed, we'll see how he holds up to some years of pounding.  Very good player, he's going to get a 2nd contract health permitting.  But as a smaller slot type guy, I'm not sure he's going to become a cap-buster type?
• I guess I'm kinda thinking we'll have a collection of good receivers; targets will get distributed, rather than dominantly focused to one or two guys; unless Watson steps up we're not likely to have one Superstar gets-first-target-all-the-time stuff like Davante became to Rodgers.  MLF loves to run a lot, and also has Jacobs, Musgrave, and Kraft grabbing targets as well.  So I'm not guessing any individual is going to get huge targets or huge stats, or huge Superstar-esque 2nd contract.  

Superstar deals?  Not likely. But I would bet that two of them will be getting 20M+ contracts. The WR market will only be going higher as guys like Jefferson and Chase sign their next deal.  Calvin freaking Ridley was just signed at 4Y/92M with 50M guaranteed. I'll be a little shocked if Reed's next deal doesn't top that.  I'd expect one of Watson / Doubs / Wicks to land a legit WR2 level contract, which in this market puts them well over 20M AAV.

[mikemike778]

On 3/24/2024 at 11:18 PM, Brit Pack said:

While Gute might be good/great there is no guarantee that the draft picks coming in will be as great as the players he is letting walk

Our offence is at a ridiculously low cap number now and for the next couple of years. Taking the top 20 players under contract at the moment for 2024 they account for 21.95% of the cap and in 2025 they account for about the same as well with only Myers as a significant potential FA loss. That gives us a massive edge over most of the NFL. Regardless of how well Gute drafts, those low cap numbers will not be the case in the future unless he intends not to re-sign any of the quality players he has drafted. 

This is a golden opportunity, call it a mega window opening, where our cap situation affords us flexibility, the stars have aligned and I'm sure Gute knows that these instances don't come around very often
 

 

 

You seem to have forgot this

Packers’ Salary Cap Plagued by Dead Money - Sports Illustrated Green Bay Packers News, Analysis and More

Sure the players under contract are cheap. The players not under contract are not. We are paying the bill for Packers going all-in for Rodgers last years. The fact we have the players on cheap rookie contracts means we can get out of the all-in years relatively painlessly without sustained cap hell.

The absolute last thing we should be doing is talking about 2 year windows and throwing money at expensive free agents on a bucket load of void years which I assume you want. All goes well, this is the start of this team's future. Need to be making sensible decisions now. I get this is off-season and people are bored.