Denver Broncos 2024 Draft Thread

[thebestever6]

Bo Nix is +2100 to win rookie of the year on fanduel +1600 on draft kings kinda like the value for fanduel. 

Edited April 29 by thebestever6

[AKRNA]

7 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

But what is this based on? Again, I come back to my post I made after the pick. Do any of us really know what his potential is? 

There have been enough QBs in NFL history that don't have elite physical traits but they have turned in amazing careers, so why are we putting a ceiling on the guy right now? If his physical traits are poor then I get it; my understanding is that isn't the case.

That's why I really liked "threshold levels" that @broncos_fan _from _uk introduced. Basically just minimum  physical requirements to do the job, make all the throws, etc. If a guy meets those the only limitation is between his ears

[jsthomp2007]

1 hour ago, broncosfan_101 said:

This is what I’ve been saying. 

Average athletes with average arms can be great QB’s. We simply have no idea how good Nix’s processing skills will be at the highest level, and that will be the greatest factor in what kind of player he turns into. Give me +accuracy and +processing over +physical attributes every day and twice on Sunday.

 

Haven't we been having this debate for two decades now?

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

…they paid big money for three players in the trenches last year. They had limited resources this year. They believe in it. 

They've also added two more veteran DL and 1 OL this offseason through FA and then the fella they traded for over the weekend.

[broncofan48]

21 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

Haven't we been having this debate for two decades now?

With a brief respite from 2012-2015

[AnAngryAmerican]

Look, the guy doesn’t have to be a physical freak to be an elite QB - look at Zach Wilson and Trey Lance, among many others, physical freaks who’ve been horrendous as stating QBs - but if Nix really is the real deal it will be all about processing.

I just don’t know if running a gimmick offense that’s almost entirely side to side in a conference that doesn’t play defense is the best way to gauge if a guy can process an NFL offense, especially one as complex as Sean’s, and do it against NFL defenses.

Again, Nix checks a lot of boxes, I’ve maintained that, and you can’t trust the garbage the local media is putting out about he was third on their board and Sean was sold 15 passes in and sent him a packet and he aced the test the next day. We don’t know if any of that is true, in fact I’d wager on it being spin that’s beneficial to the Broncos for good PR and beneficial to the media with more clicks/views/listens/etc., as it gets the casual fans back in the fold. And I know a lot of casual fans who are saying things to me like “I heard in the radio Payton thinks he’s the next Mahomes” and the like. 

I’ve said it from the beginning that drafting a QB without a roster around him is a massive roll of the dice. This team is elite at exactly one position - CB1 - and very good at, at most, two others - LT1 and RG1. 

Sean, however, did stake his gold jacket on this working out so we should, and I will, give him a chance. The Walmarts hired Sean, paid him handsomely, and gave him full reign over the roster and he took “his guy” with the #12 pick - this is their plan going forward, and I’ve said many times they have a plan and will adhere to it. So now we see if the plan works. If we’re drafting in the top-12 two years from now, we will know the plan was a failure. So let’s saddle up and ride and see how it goes. I’m excited for this team again, I think we all should be. 

Edited April 29 by AnAngryAmerican

[AKRNA]

20 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Look, the guy doesn’t have to be a physical freak to be an elite QB - look at Zach Wilson and Trey Lance, among many others, physical freaks who’ve been horrendous as stating QBs - but if Nix really is the real deal it will be all about processing.

I just don’t know if running a gimmick offense that’s almost entirely side to side in a conference that doesn’t play defense is the best way to gauge if a guy can process an NFL offense, especially one as complex as Sean’s, and do it against NFL defenses.

Again, Nix checks a lot of boxes, I’ve maintained that, and you can’t trust the garbage the local media is putting out about he was third on their board and Sean was sold 15 passes in and sent him a packet and he aced the test the next day. We don’t know if any of that is true, in fact I’d wager on it being spin that’s beneficial to the Broncos for good PR and beneficial to the media with more clicks/views/listens/etc., as it gets the casual fans back in the fold. And I know a lot of casual fans who are saying things to me like “I heard in the radio Payton thinks he’s the next Mahomes” and the like. 

I’ve said it from the beginning that drafting a QB without a roster around him is a massive roll of the dice. This team is elite at exactly one position - CB1 - and very good at, at most, two others - LT1 and RG1. 

Sean, however, did stake his gold jacket on this working out so we should, and I will, give him a chance. The Walmarts hired Sean, paid him handsomely, and gave him full reign over the roster and he took “his guy” with the #12 pick - this is their plan going forward, and I’ve said many times they have a plan and will adhere to it. So now we see if the plan works. If we’re drafting in the top-12 two years from now, we will know the plan was a failure. So let’s saddle up and ride and see how it goes. I’m excited for this team again, I think we all should be. 

Good post. To add a few things, Nix has a great set of QB coaches, a decent OL (could be good depending on center) and experienced skill players. Everyone is familiar with the system and will just get better. We're now "cost controlled" at QB for 5 years so there's no pressure forcing him to play immediately. 

He's in a really good position to succeed. The rest is up to him.

[germ-x]

16 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

But what is this based on? Again, I come back to my post I made after the pick. Do any of us really know what his potential is? 

There have been enough QBs in NFL history that don't have elite physical traits but they have turned in amazing careers, so why are we putting a ceiling on the guy right now? If his physical traits are poor then I get it; my understanding is that isn't the case.

 

10 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

This is what I’ve been saying. 

Average athletes with average arms can be great QB’s. We simply have no idea how good Nix’s processing skills will be at the highest level, and that will be the greatest factor in what kind of player he turns into. Give me +accuracy and +processing over +physical attributes every day and twice on Sunday.

 

Yeah I don’t really get all of this, “you can’t have an opinion because you don’t know” stuff going on in the forum.  The fact is none of us know everything so that argument can be made for every player being drafted, being signed as FAs and what not with the ability to pull examples from years past as to why that opinion doesn’t work.  That works for both sides of the aisle as well.

If someone loves the Nix pick someone could come at it from, but do you really know his potential?  Sam Bradford was drafted as a cerebral QB with accuracy who didn’t work out.  

There’s just no debate in any of that.  We should all be able to have an opinion and state it and debate it without the whole, “well you don’t really know.”  You’re right, we don’t, and neither do you.  So state an actual opinion instead of acting like you’re sitting on the fence. 

Do you or don’t you like the Nix pick?

 

Edited April 30 by germ-x

[MontanaBronco]

Fence sitting and recognizing that you don’t have enough information to form a strong opinion are two different things. It’s no secret that QBs bust all of the time, might be because figuring out whether a QB skill set transfers to the NFL is incredibly nuanced/we don’t know. 
 

So put me in the “we don’t know camp”. Seems like the most realistic place to be. 
 

 

Edited April 30 by MontanaBronco

[thebestever6]

I think Peter Schrager was right Nix being the 6th qb drafted really makes it open season to poke holes in his game.

[copeland]

7 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Good post. To add a few things, Nix has a great set of QB coaches, a decent OL (could be good depending on center) and experienced skill players. Everyone is familiar with the system and will just get better. We're now "cost controlled" at QB for 5 years so there's no pressure forcing him to play immediately. 

He's in a really good position to succeed. The rest is up to him.

I’d only add this…at this level, in general, the problem is rarely physical. All these guys are elite athletes with abundant physical talent. The mental aptitude to go along with the talent is really most of the holy grail in a large part of any professional sport. It’s what makes the really good separate from the elite. It just remains to be seen if Nix has the brain to accentuate the talent. If you are getting down to brass tax, even the coaches and front office are holding their breath that he does. The rest of the holy grail is good old fashioned luck. It’s why you have day 2-3 guys that become hall of famers. And it’s why you have first round guys that bust. No one would wait even a second, to draft a player if they knew he would be a hall of famer. To me, the only wild card is injuries. And realistically that can be put into the luck category. 

[germ-x]

1 hour ago, MontanaBronco said:

Fence sitting and recognizing that you don’t have enough information to form a strong opinion are two different things. It’s no secret that QBs bust all of the time, might be because figuring out whether a QB skill set transfers to the NFL is incredibly nuanced/we don’t know. 
 

So put me in the “we don’t know camp”. Seems like the most realistic place to be. 
 

 

They’re not fence sitting though.  Fence sitting is not even posting about it, or sharing both sides of the argument.

Faux fence.  “You can’t know what you’re talking about.”….as they go on to tell you how they know and you’re wrong. 

Edited April 30 by germ-x

[lomaxgrUK]

2 hours ago, germ-x said:

 

Yeah I don’t really get all of this, “you can’t have an opinion because you don’t know” stuff going on in the forum.  The fact is none of us know everything so that argument can be made for every player being drafted, being signed as FAs and what not with the ability to pull examples from years past as to why that opinion doesn’t work.  That works for both sides of the aisle as well.

If someone loves the Nix pick someone could come at it from, but do you really know his potential?  Sam Bradford was drafted as a cerebral QB with accuracy who didn’t work out.  

There’s just no debate in any of that.  We should all be able to have an opinion and state it and debate it without the whole, “well you don’t really know.”  You’re right, we don’t, and neither do you.  So state an actual opinion instead of acting like you’re sitting on the fence. 

Do you or don’t you like the Nix pick?

 

But you can't state an opinion as fact without at least some logic to back it up.

"His ceiling is that of a middle of the road qb" - Why? 

"I don't think he's a good pick" - Why? And not because Mel Kiper said so.

I have clearly said I like drafting a QB, so I like the pick. But do I like the player? Well, what is the point in me answering that when I haven't seen him play football? Like asking me if I think food tastes good when I haven't put it in my mouth.

[germ-x]

6 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

But you can't state an opinion as fact without at least some logic to back it up.

"His ceiling is that of a middle of the road qb" - Why? 

"I don't think he's a good pick" - Why? And not because Mel Kiper said so.

I have clearly said I like drafting a QB, so I like the pick. But do I like the player? Well, what is the point in me answering that when I haven't seen him play football? Like asking me if I think food tastes good when I haven't put it in my mouth.

Yeah, but you’re not defending the pick being a QB at this point, you’re defending the player who you’ve admittedly never watched.  

I mentioned it in the previous post, but I just don’t get the counter of “you can’t know and here’s an example that proves your opinion wrong.”  That can be done for everything in the NFL.  

I have watched Nix and then watched Kurt Warner’s 2 game breakdown of Nix.  One of the most interesting things I found is when Nix was drafted the analysts and pundits painted him as this older, experienced prospect who started 60+ games and because of this was fundamentally sound.  After watching the Warner breakdown that isn’t the case.  Warner consistently is bringing up poor footwork.  He has a habit of hitting his drop and just staying stationary and trying to sling it around.  Reminds me of Mahomes/Rodgers, which they have the arm strength to do it, Nix does not.  I think it’s fair to question how improved he really is from his Auburn days because he has guys running wide open at Oregon.  

Overall, he has some talent but no defining quality, probably compared to NFL standards his ability to run would be his top attribute.  My best comparison for him is Andy Dalton coming out of TCU.  

Now Andy Dalton had a very good career.  But obviously he could exceed that and be the next Drew Brees or go the opposite direction and be the next Christian Ponder.  Obviously we can’t know for sure. 

[Dbrog24]

59 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I have watched Nix and then watched Kurt Warner’s 2 game breakdown of Nix.  One of the most interesting things I found is when Nix was drafted the analysts and pundits painted him as this older, experienced prospect who started 60+ games and because of this was fundamentally sound.  After watching the Warner breakdown that isn’t the case.  Warner consistently is bringing up poor footwork.  He has a habit of hitting his drop and just staying stationary and trying to sling it around.  Reminds me of Mahomes/Rodgers, which they have the arm strength to do it, Nix does not.  I think it’s fair to question how improved he really is from his Auburn days because he has guys running wide open at Oregon. 

Love Kurt's breakdowns and I just watched most of his two parter on Bo that you mentioned. He constantly was mentioning those things you listed and ya I got a little Rodgers from him as well without as big of an arm. It makes me wonder if that's just how he throws and will it really change much?

I think we can teach him certain things like getting further from the LOS for long throw plays so his line can create a pocket to step up into if needed. I also absolutely love and its refreshing to see a guy who is always going through progressions and doesn't make many bad decisions or risky ones with the football; also something Kurt made constant mention of (probably what ppl reference w Bo's experience). It's something we haven't had here since probably manning.

Ultimately these qualities make me feel like he actually has potential to "raise all boats" as our O-Line will be more consistent cause they know what to expect, and RBs and TEs can have a chance to shine (Kurt pointed this out too in terms of throwing it in places they can make plays).

WRs might suffer though because of the foot/power stuff you mentioned and Kurt even talks about this creating accuracy issues or not being able to put it in longer places where the WR can stay in stride and break tackles/juke. This could leave things like slants or jet sweeps though I guess.

Sounds like a Sean Payton offense to me