swede700 Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 29 minutes ago, vike daddy said: obviously the Vikings felt Turner would be gone by their pick at 23. who might have taken him between 17 and 22? who might have traded up for him within that range? The Rams and Dolphins would likely have taken him, as they both ended up taking Verse and Chop Robinson. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SemperFeist Posted May 10 Author Share Posted May 10 1 hour ago, swede700 said: The Rams and Dolphins would likely have taken him, as they both ended up taking Verse and Chop Robinson. And who knows who else may have been trying to trade up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 Turner: "It's different, for sure. I was sitting in the hotel room just looking at where I am. I was looking at the map, looking at the bordering states, and I never imagined I would be up here. But I'm here now, ready to work, happy to be here and ready to see what Minnesota has to offer." https://www.vikings.com/news/jj-mccarthy-dallas-turner-2024-rookie-minicamp-practice 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battle2heaven Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 On 5/10/2024 at 11:14 AM, vike daddy said: obviously the Vikings felt Turner would be gone by their pick at 23. who might have taken him between 17 and 22? who might have traded up for him within that range? He definitely would have gone to the Dolphins, where Chop Robinson went. They are similar players stylistically but Turner is just better. I dont think there was any way, any of the 3 remaining 1st round edge guys would have dropped to the Vikings; if they really wanted an impactful front 7 defensive player. We also learned this past week that Johnny Newton, the other IDL besides Byron Murphy, now has to have the same foot surgery, on his other foot. So that was a reason he dropped to the 2nd round. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 On 5/11/2024 at 11:59 AM, vike daddy said: Turner: "It's different, for sure. I was sitting in the hotel room just looking at where I am. I was looking at the map, looking at the bordering states, and I never imagined I would be up here. But I'm here now, ready to work, happy to be here and ready to see what Minnesota has to offer." https://www.vikings.com/news/jj-mccarthy-dallas-turner-2024-rookie-minicamp-practice Wait until winter arrives. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Relax Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 9 minutes ago, swede700 said: Wait until winter arrives. 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelKing728 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 8 hours ago, battle2heaven said: He definitely would have gone to the Dolphins, where Chop Robinson went. They are similar players stylistically but Turner is just better. I dont think there was any way, any of the 3 remaining 1st round edge guys would have dropped to the Vikings; if they really wanted an impactful front 7 defensive player. We also learned this past week that Johnny Newton, the other IDL besides Byron Murphy, now has to have the same foot surgery, on his other foot. So that was a reason he dropped to the 2nd round. I think Turner might be better at finishing plays perhaps, with more TFLs and sacks than Robinson. That, and I think Robinson is overshadowed by his former teammate and likely FRP in 2025, Abdul Carter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battle2heaven Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Espn's analytical model really loves Dallas Turner https://x.com/SethWalder/status/1790790323095970008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battle2heaven Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 here's another projection model, called SackSEER. This was created over at football outsiders, but now brought over to ESPN. They also have Dallas Turner 1st among draft edge rushers! Dallas Turner really POPS in analytical models given his age, length, explosion metrics and college production. I'm sure whatever model Kwesi has calibrated for the Vikings, Turner also stands out. See below! https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/39826558/2024-nfl-draft-edge-rusher-projections-rankings-stats 1. Dallas Turner, Alabama SackSEER projection: 26.3 sacks through five NFL seasons Scouts Inc.: No. 6 overall Similar historical prospects: Von Miller, Vic Beasley Turner comes out as the top prospect in the Explosion Index that combines various combine drills. He led all edge rushers in the 40-yard dash at 4.46 seconds, had the highest vertical jump at 40.5 inches and was close to the top in the broad jump at 10-foot-7. Turner also tops all other prospects in the SRAM metric, as he had 10 sacks as a junior and, more impressively, 8.5 sacks as a freshman in 2021. What's holding Turner's projection down is his low total of passes defensed. Passes defensed is a good indicator of pass-rush ability, as it shows a player's skill to get up and slap down the ball when close to the quarterback. Turner only had one in three seasons. When looking for similar historical prospects, I couldn't find any similar to Turner in weight, sack stats and combine drill performance but also very low in passes defensed. (Miller had five in his junior year, for example, plus an interception as a senior.) PLAYER COLLEGE SCOUTS INC. WEIGHT EXPLOSION SRAM PD/G 3 CONE SACK PROJ. Dallas Turner Alabama 7 247 2.09 0.60 0.03 7.09 26.3 Jared Verse Florida State 11 254 1.26 0.54 0.12 7.31 24.4 Laiatu Latu UCLA 15 259 0.21 0.59 0.18 7.21 23.4 Chop Robinson Penn State 26 254 1.57 0.40 0.10 7.11 21.2 Marshawn Kneeland Western Michigan 54 267 0.35 0.34 0.08 7.02 15.7 Jalyx Hunt Houston Christian 164 252 1.36 0.48 0.29 7.21 13.8 Chris Braswell Alabama 40 251 0.40 0.21 0.05 7.19 13.8 Darius Robinson Missouri 25 285 -0.73 0.28 0.02 7.42 13.0 Bralen Trice Washington 50 245 0.24 0.50 0.06 7.27 12.7 Jonah Elliss Utah 77 248 0.42 0.61 0.10 7.24 12.1 Mohamed Kamara Colorado State 112 248 1.02 0.61 0.05 7.17 11.2 Gabriel Murphy UCLA 130 247 1.13 0.51 0.13 7.24 10.8 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VikeManDan Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 26.3 seems laughably low over 5 seasons. With that being said I see SackSEER started in 2010, sold/acquired by ESPN (???) but can't find any results to see how accurate/inaccurate their predictions have been since it started. I'm sure the model has been tweaked over the years as well. From 2022 alone and through their sophomore campaigns for the top 3 EDGES... Travon Walker had a SackSEER projection of 27.2 and already has 13.5 sacks. At this pace he'd have his projection after 4 seasons. Aidan Hutchinson had a SackSEER projection of 26.9 and already has 21.0 sacks, well on pace to shatter his projection. Kayvon Thibodeaux had a SackSEER projection of 26.6 and already has 15.5 sacks. Is the model meant to be conservative with these projections? What am I missing? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battle2heaven Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 10 minutes ago, VikeManDan said: 26.3 seems laughably low over 5 seasons. With that being said I see SackSEER started in 2010, sold/acquired by ESPN (???) but can't find any results to see how accurate/inaccurate their predictions have been since it started. I'm sure the model has been tweaked over the years as well. From 2022 alone and through their sophomore campaigns for the top 3 EDGES... Travon Walker had a SackSEER projection of 27.2 and already has 13.5 sacks. At this pace he'd have his projection after 4 seasons. Aidan Hutchinson had a SackSEER projection of 26.9 and already has 21.0 sacks, well on pace to shatter his projection. Kayvon Thibodeaux had a SackSEER projection of 26.6 and already has 15.5 sacks. Is the model meant to be conservative with these projections? What am I missing? in theory, all models are typically conservative. To me, I care more about his ranking amongst the edge guys in his class to compare, not really what the projected total 3 or 5 years numbers are. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wcblack34 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 1 hour ago, VikeManDan said: 26.3 seems laughably low over 5 seasons. With that being said I see SackSEER started in 2010, sold/acquired by ESPN (???) but can't find any results to see how accurate/inaccurate their predictions have been since it started. I'm sure the model has been tweaked over the years as well. From 2022 alone and through their sophomore campaigns for the top 3 EDGES... Travon Walker had a SackSEER projection of 27.2 and already has 13.5 sacks. At this pace he'd have his projection after 4 seasons. Aidan Hutchinson had a SackSEER projection of 26.9 and already has 21.0 sacks, well on pace to shatter his projection. Kayvon Thibodeaux had a SackSEER projection of 26.6 and already has 15.5 sacks. Is the model meant to be conservative with these projections? What am I missing? And people get paid to pull these things out of their butts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cearbhall Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 2 hours ago, VikeManDan said: Is the model meant to be conservative with these projections? What am I missing? My guess is that the model isn't really trying to get each individual's projection correct, but to try and get an average that is close. For each sack a player outperforms their projection there should be another that underperforms his projection by a sack. The guys that are doing well should all be above the projection because we know there are a fair share of players that never do anything. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 5 hours ago, battle2heaven said: To me, I care more about his ranking amongst the edge guys in his class to compare... exactly. it's all about performance relative to their peers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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