53 Man Roster thread

[Old Guy]

I always enjoy reading everybody's predictions on their 53-man roster. I see @Chiliposted one in another thread already with some very detailed thoughts on how he put it together. 

Thought maybe having one place to post them all would make it easier to review and see how they evolve from just after the draft, through the rest of the off season until final cutdowns. 

I'll copy and paste Chill's over here. Have at it let the games begin! 

Edited April 28 by Old Guy

[Old Guy]

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Posted 3 hours ago (edited)

I've been playing around with my 53 projections and some things are already quite clear. To keep all our draft picks especially having a 3rd QB in Pratt it will have some implications to the make up of our roster. Can't have an extra WR or extra RB or extra OL

QB | Love - Clifford - Pratt [3]
RB | Jacobs - Lloyd - Dillon [3]
TE | Musgrave - Kraft - Davis - Sims [4]
WR | Watson - Doubs - Reed - Wicks - Melton - Heath [6]
OL | Morgan - Jenkins - Myers - Rhyan - Tom - Walker - Glover - Monk - Jennings [9]

OFFENCE: 25

S | McKinney - Bullard - Williams - Oladapo [4]
CB | Alexander - Stokes - Valentine - Balentine - Nixon - King [6]
LB | Walker - McDuffie - Cooper - Hopper - Welch [5]
EDGE | Preston - Gary - Van Ness - Engabare - Cox [5]
DT | Clark - Wyatt - Slaton - Brooks - Wooden [5]

DEFENCE: 25

ST | Carlson - Whelan - Bowden [3]

TOTAL: 53

Because of the switch to the 4-3 I think we will be seeing more surprise cuts on the defensive side of the ball. Maybe Brenton Cox, maybe an interior lineman who may be ill suited to the new scheme such as Wooden and perhaps our entire existing safety group will be cut for our newly drafted ones.

Perhaps we can go with just 4 EDGE and 4 DT which will open up roster spots in other positions. I can't see us cutting a WR or CB because of ST. We need gunners and jammers.

(Edit: i'm completely wrong - the kickoff changes will prioritise LB body types over CB body types.)

So there's a good chance that Heath and/or King roster spots will go to LB/TE/FB. Woah, mind blown. Eric Wilson or Henry Pearson could make the roster instead. Maybe that's why we didn't bother drafting a CB and WR because we're already well stocked.

The punt units will still need gunners and jammers we just don't need to stock as many of them now.

For ST I expect us to keep Welch on the roster because apparently he was a major cog for us last year and perhaps Rochell too but the whole point of this exercise was to keep all our draft picks which is why King is in instead of Rochell.

DeBose has to either outplay Melton or beat out Heath on ST or it's PS again for him.

The OL in this scenario i'm guessing Walker will become our swing tackle. I didn't have to but I absolutely dislike Newman and I forced him off of the roster with Jennings. It would mean we would have an entirely new group of backup interior OL. I think we will give up on all our bigs development projects such as Jones, Tenuta, Telfort. One of them will make the PS though for sure. Dillard doesn't have a prayer of making the roster judging from his tape and lack of position versatility.

We got room for maybe one or two UDFA. Obviously Jennings is in, also I reckon Bowden has a shot at the roster as we seek to improve our ST group.

[Old Guy]

Chili

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Posted 2 hours ago (edited)

After having my mind blown with the implications of our new kickoff rules I tried to build our kickoff lineups to help me figure out how to build the 53 man roster.

I noticed that there wasn't much of a gap between the returner and the blockers which means there's less grass to cover so the returner is more likely going to run through the middle rather than towards the boundary. This suggests having gunners on the outside would not work because by the time they reach the returner the returner has already gone past the scrimmage line, so therefore the gunners would need to be placed inside. It would mean the outside would keep contain whilst the inside chasers focus on stopping the returner.

Because of the smaller gap between the returner and blockers I think speed becomes less important for the chasing team, there's less ground to cover. If all the blockers are all LB/TE/FB types then you would need guys strong enough and agile enough to get past them which again likely means LB/TE/FB types or oversized S/RB/WR like Dillon or Oladapo.

Actually after thinking about it more, teams might want at least one chaser with excellent speed to chase the returner if he breaks through the line. The chasers in the spreadsheet are no-way near quick enough to run after Nixon if he breaks through. Might need to drop Oladapo or Heath for someone faster. The kicker would be f**ked on his own on an island trying to stop Nixon.

Would the returner need a wing man? someone fast enough to keep up and block anyone chasing after the returner if he breaks through the line. Maybe there's a case to be made for one ultra speedy blocker and chaser in the lineups?

I think this lineup goes to show that Wilson will make the 53 so I would need to adjust my roster in the post above. May have to drop one CB or one WR though. Dillon is in the kickoff teams because he has a LB type body, actually saves us a roster spot. Maybe we should've drafted Braedon Allen or Estime, would've been smart long term play. The kickoff rules and lots of nickle defences means bigger RBs might come into fashion again. Also returners need to be shifty, have short area quickness and look for openings like a RB. The value of RBs is going to go up and up.

[Packerraymond]

QB | Love - Pratt [2]
RB | Jacobs - Lloyd - Dillon [3]
TE | Musgrave - Kraft - Davis - Sims [4]
WR | Watson - Doubs - Reed - Wicks - Melton - Heath [6]
OL | Morgan - Jenkins - Myers - Rhyan - Tom - Walker - Newman - Jones - Monk [9]

OFFENSE: 24

S | McKinney - Bullard - AJJ- Williams - Oladapo [5]
CB | Alexander - Stokes - Valentine - Balentine - Nixon - King [6]
LB | Walker - McDuffie - Cooper - Hopper - Wilson [5]
EDGE | Preston - Gary - Van Ness - Ogbah - Cox [5]
DT | Clark - Wyatt - Slaton - Brooks - Wooden [5]

DEFENSE: 26

ST | Carlson - Whelan - Orzech[3]

PUP: Enagbare 

Packers dip into FA one more time with someone our LBs coach will be very familiar with, former Dolphin Emmanuel Ogbah. Actually reminds me a ton of Preston and I think even though Enagbare didn't have surgery they will still bring him along very slowly. 

Clifford/Pratt will be a tough cut, loser to the PS, but this roster has too much ST talent to keep a 3rd QB.

The "big boy" battle will be fun to watch, think the last OL spot comes down to Jones v Tenuta v Glover v Telford. I give the edge to Jones as he has high end PS NFL tape and the others don't. Dillard will need to show great improvement to make the squad.

Defensively I think is pretty simple actually, I know it won't be after camp as some will step up, but as it stands it's probably King v Welch v Rochell v Sapp III for the last spot.

This is going to be an incredibly tough roster for one of the few UDFAs to make. Jennings clearly stands the best chance, but those odds are still incredibly long.

[R T]

7 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

QB | Love - Pratt [2]
RB | Jacobs - Lloyd - Dillon [3]
TE | Musgrave - Kraft - Davis - Sims [4]
WR | Watson - Doubs - Reed - Wicks - Melton - Heath [6]
OL | Morgan - Jenkins - Myers - Rhyan - Tom - Walker - Newman - Jones - Monk [9]

OFFENSE: 24

S | McKinney - Bullard - AJJ- Williams - Oladapo [5]
CB | Alexander - Stokes - Valentine - Balentine - Nixon - King [6]
LB | Walker - McDuffie - Cooper - Hopper - Wilson [5]
EDGE | Preston - Gary - Van Ness - Ogbah - Cox [5]
DT | Clark - Wyatt - Slaton - Brooks - Wooden [5]

DEFENSE: 26

ST | Carlson - Whelan - Orzech[3]

PUP: Enagbare 

Packers dip into FA one more time with someone our LBs coach will be very familiar with, former Dolphin Emmanuel Ogbah. Actually reminds me a ton of Preston and I think even though Enagbare didn't have surgery they will still bring him along very slowly. 

Clifford/Pratt will be a tough cut, loser to the PS, but this roster has too much ST talent to keep a 3rd QB.

The "big boy" battle will be fun to watch, think the last OL spot comes down to Jones v Tenuta v Glover v Telford. I give the edge to Jones as he has high end PS NFL tape and the others don't. Dillard will need to show great improvement to make the squad.

Defensively I think is pretty simple actually, I know it won't be after camp as some will step up, but as it stands it's probably King v Welch v Rochell v Sapp III for the last spot.

This is going to be an incredibly tough roster for one of the few UDFAs to make. Jennings clearly stands the best chance, but those odds are still incredibly long.

I think this is pretty spot on. The Clifford/Pratt thing should be a good battle to watch in preseason games. I believe the LS job is there for Bowden to take from Orzech, don't believe the Packers have been thrilled with what they have gotten from Orzech.

[Old Guy]

@Packerraymondwas thinking the same thing about the QB situation. That is going to be an interesting camp battle. 

Only thing I don't like is Newman, but at this point, he's going to make it would be my guess. 

[Refugee]

In general, it’s pretty hard to keep 3 QBs on the 53. The 9ers did it and it worked out incredibly well for them but that is the exception. Most clubs haven’t done it in recent history.

There are new rules that allow for a 3rd emergency QB to not take a game day roster spot, but they must be on the 53 and not a PS call up. If both Clifford and Pratt play well enough that we don’t believe we can stash them on the PS, it will be an interesting problem to have at final cutdowns. 

[Old Guy]

56 minutes ago, Refugee said:

In general, it’s pretty hard to keep 3 QBs on the 53. The 9ers did it and it worked out incredibly well for them but that is the exception. Most clubs haven’t done it in recent history.

There are new rules that allow for a 3rd emergency QB to not take a game day roster spot, but they must be on the 53 and not a PS call up. If both Clifford and Pratt play well enough that we don’t believe we can stash them on the PS, it will be an interesting problem to have at final cutdowns. 

My only question with that is wouldn't it be wiser to get a vet QB who could actually get us out of a game or two? I have ZERO faith Clifford or Pratt could win us a game next year. 

Love's job is secure, a vet who could keep us in it would be better than these two guys having to play meaningful minutes in a game(s). Plenty of those guys out there who you could get cheap. 

[Refugee]

Just now, Old Guy said:

My only question with that is wouldn't it be wiser to get a vet QB who could actually get us out of a game or two? I have ZERO faith Clifford or Pratt could win us a game next year. 

Love's job is secure, a vet who could keep us in it would be better than these two guys having to play meaningful minutes in a game(s). Plenty of those guys out there who you could get cheap. 

Maybe, but what if you develop a guy on the cheap that can be good enough to get you out of a game or two, get some value for him when you ship him off, rinse and repeat. Worked pretty well for Wolf and TT and Gute has spoken to that a bit. Preseason should give us a better idea of what we’ve got but Clifford exceeded most people’s expectations last year. 

[Old Guy]

As it stands today, I could see 8 offensive linemen with 3-4 on the practice squad. I could see Dubois forcing himself onto the roster as WR 7, if he can play some specials. 

Wooden has beefed himself up to 290. He was getting washed in the run game. Might help him anchor a bit better but overall, is that extra weight going to help him or hurt him? I don't have him as a lock. I could see, like @Packerraymond has us getting Ogbah, maybe we go find a DT yet as well. 

I love holding onto 6 CBs, but question, does Ballentine play a lot of specials? Have to believe he's CB 5 right now. 

[Old Guy]

6 minutes ago, Refugee said:

Maybe, but what if you develop a guy on the cheap that can be good enough to get you out of a game or two, get some value for him when you ship him off, rinse and repeat. Worked pretty well for Wolf and TT and Gute has spoken to that a bit. Preseason should give us a better idea of what we’ve got but Clifford exceeded most people’s expectations last year. 

Absolutely love that concept, but all the guys we developed: Brooks, Brunell, Hasselbeck, even, Flynn were thought to be good enough to start. I guess I don't see that as Clifford's ceiling. I see his ceiling as holding a clipboard and taking a few snaps in emergency situations or perfecting the kneel down. 

I know nothing about Pratt, maybe he is that guy we develop, but should still be 3rd string this year. I see this team as a Super Bowl contender. I don't think it is wise to have Pratt as QB number 2 if our front office believes that as well. 

[DamSamn]

I think this is going to be a really tough roster to make for guys on the fringe.

 

I’m building this view post-draft to just try to identify who I think are “locks” to be on the 53 in September. And I mean stone cold locks, like I’d be shocked if the guy doesn’t make it. I also include the next tier of guys I see as “likely” to make the roster. I’m admittedly a little harsh on the some of the newly drafted defense, but see them as near locks because of draft status. I’m not sure how the new kickoffs or the new DC are going to influence roster construction, but I think they will.

TL, DR -there are a lot of guys on the 90 man that have little to no chance at making this 53.

 

QB | Love [1] likely Clifford, as I don’t see space to keep 3, Pratt to PS. But it wouldn’t surprise me if they bring in a vet backup that could win you a couple games if they decide to keep 3 because Pratt looks like something

RB | Jacobs - Lloyd - Dillon [3] Dillon is only a lock here bc of salary/experience

TE | Musgrave - Kraft - Davis  [3] room for one more, likely Sims

WR | Watson - Doubs - Reed - Wicks - [4] likely Heath, and a sixth Melton, Toure, DuBose?

OL | Morgan/Walker - Jenkins - Myers - Rhyan - Tom - Monk [7] room for 2 more- no idea where the last two will come from- depends on the Jones/Tenuta/Dillard -is it time to move on? Do you put Glover on PS to develop or protect him on the roster? My guess would be one more outside, one more inside.

 

OFFENSE: 18 locks, room for 6 or 7- but two are surely OL, one QB, one TE, and one/probably two WR

 

S | McKinney - Bullard  [2] Johnson- Williams - Oladapo are highly likely but I wouldn’t call them locks- AJJ could be odd man out because of draft status

CB | Alexander - Stokes – Valentine - Nixon  [4] likely Balentine, King

LB | Walker - McDuffie - Cooper [3] probs two more from Hopper (likely due to draft status), Wilson, Welch

EDGE | P Smith - Gary - Van Ness  [3] room for two more? Enagbare pending knee, Cox

DT | Clark - Wyatt - Slaton - Brooks [4] Wooden has inside track on a fifth

 

DEFENSE: 16 locks, room for 10ish more, but I already have ten listed as likely

 

ST | K-P -LS[3]  Carlson and Whelan are likely, Orzech not quite as much, but has inside track

 

[Refugee]

10 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

As it stands today, I could see 8 offensive linemen with 3-4 on the practice squad. I could see Dubois forcing himself onto the roster as WR 7, if he can play some specials. 

Wooden has beefed himself up to 290. He was getting washed in the run game. Might help him anchor a bit better but overall, is that extra weight going to help him or hurt him? I don't have him as a lock. I could see, like @Packerraymond has us getting Ogbah, maybe we go find a DT yet as well. 

I love holding onto 6 CBs, but question, does Ballentine play a lot of specials? Have to believe he's CB 5 right now. 

8 just seems way too low, 9 OL minimum. Between  Morgan and Monk plus the returning depth guys, we've got to keep more than 8 on the 53.

[Old Guy]

6 minutes ago, Refugee said:

8 just seems way too low, 9 OL minimum. Between  Morgan and Monk plus the returning depth guys, we've got to keep more than 8 on the 53.

I agree with that in general. IMO, if 9 is Newman, then keep 8 with guys on the practice squad. Only going to have 8 actives on gameday anyway. I would think we would acquire another during camp or at roster cutdowns if we were in that situation. Heck, we might sign a guy yet. 

I guess I'm just guessing/betting 2 or 3 guys that make the 53 are not on the team yet. 

Edited April 28 by Old Guy

[ThatJerkDave]

I like the way @DamSamn is thinking about this.  Get your roster locks down first, and make them guys that are actually locks as well.  Yes, we will keep more than one QB, but we only know FOR SURE that Jordan Love is one of them.  

I don't want to make a full roster prediction as of yet, I want to at least see some camp and scrimmage work and see what returning guys have really done in the offseason.  For all we know, Royce Newman may finally turn a corner.  It took Lane Taylor and Lucas Patrick a couple of years, and they were at the very least playable.  But I do want to make some observations.  I would also like to see what some of the UDFAs look like before writing them off.  The Packers have been pretty good at giving the UDFAs a fair shake when cutdowns happen.

-The results of the draft tell me that the team is a lot more comfortable with the CB room than I (probably we) thought.  They say Stokes is healthy, Ballentine showed them enough that they paid him an RFA contract, they re-signed Nixon, and not adding to the room until their very last pick shows some confidence in Valentine as well. 

-Looking at the OL, Monk and Morgan are safe because of draft position.  I also believe our starting 5 from last season are safe.  As much as we all rag on him, Royce Newman has NFL experience at both tackle and guard, which very well could give him an advantage as a game day "up" for roster construction.  He has 24 starts and has played in every single game of his career.  We can go round and round with him being bad, but the experience is not of no value.  I think there is one tackle position open between Jones, Telfort, Tenuta, Dillard, and Jennings.  The only one of them with any guaranteed salary is Jennings.  The interior battle will come down to Newman vs Glover.  Despite my praise of Newman, if Glover is just better, you probably give him the nod.  By my count that is 9 OL for the roster.  Keep your extra favorite if you like.

-Seeing a lot of Brenton Cox making the DE squad.  He will have to show a lot of improvement in camp.  At this point, he is not any different from the likes of Jon Garvin or Kendall Donnerson in terms of utility.  Before seeing him in camp this year, wouldn't you rather just play Karl Brooks at DE before Brenton Cox, if Gary, LVN, Preston, and Enagbare are all unavailable?

-Our RBs are big.  The lightest on the roster is 220, both Emmanuel Wilson and MarShawn Lloyd.  

-Our LBs are going to be fast.  Walker, Cooper, and Wilson were sub 4.6 at the LB position, both McDuffie and Hopper are a hair above that, and they play fast.  Cooper and Hopper like to hit.

-WR is once again going to be a numbers game.  The top 4 are set.  Additional WRs are at the expense of other roster spots, not sure if they keep 5, 6, or 7.  I still don't think the difference between Dubose, Heath, Melton, and Toure is very drastic.  DuBose was injured last season, Heath had a good connection with Clifford in the preseason, Melton came on when he had his opportunity, and Toure started camp strong and fizzled out.  I think all four are rosterable players, but we probably only keep two of them.  A lot of this will come down to how they do in preseason, and whether or not you like an extra OL or S or LB or TE.