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Teams you think are overrated or underrated at this point


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On 5/18/2024 at 1:31 PM, PossibleCabbage said:

Yeah, Vegas has the Bears at 8.5 wins and that's absurd.  Like even if Caleb is incredible eventually, he's going to struggle as a first year player.  What you're hoping for with a first year QB (any QB, no matter how highly touted as a prospect) is that the game starts to slow down for him in the back half of the season and you can build on that.

8.5 wins is only 1.5 more than their 2023 total.  They had bad QB play in 23.  

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15 hours ago, El Ramster said:

defense was really good I doubt that happens again

Why?

 

Nobody left. Unless you think Sione Takitaki was the lynchpin holding everything together.

 

We even added Mike Vrabel to our staff.

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3 hours ago, candyman93 said:

Why?

 

Nobody left. Unless you think Sione Takitaki was the lynchpin holding everything together.

 

We even added Mike Vrabel to our staff.

In general isnt defense more likely to change because it is more about the unit and less about 1 guy ala the QB?

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On 7/21/2024 at 6:31 AM, squire12 said:

8.5 wins is only 1.5 more than their 2023 total.  They had bad QB play in 23.  

 Williams is a rookie, there is no guarantee that he will be better. It's the Mystery Box thing - "do you want the boat, or the mystery box?" "THE MYSTERY BOX, it could be anything, maybe even a boat!" 

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3 hours ago, Mr Bad Example said:

 Williams is a rookie, there is no guarantee that he will be better. It's the Mystery Box thing - "do you want the boat, or the mystery box?" "THE MYSTERY BOX, it could be anything, maybe even a boat!" 

The difference being that the boat, in the Bear’s case, was more like a rubber duck floaty. 

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3 hours ago, Mr Bad Example said:

 Williams is a rookie, there is no guarantee that he will be better. It's the Mystery Box thing - "do you want the boat, or the mystery box?" "THE MYSTERY BOX, it could be anything, maybe even a boat!" 

The mystery box versus a boat gag is that you can get a guaranteed great thing, or you can get a mystery. In the end, most things are likely to be worth less than a boat. There is no boat in the Bears situation. There's a mystery box, or the absolute crap that was their 2023 QB situation. Even if Williams busts, he's still likely to be better than Tyson Bagent, for instance. In the last 20 years of first overall picks at QB, only Jamarcus Russell was that bad. Even your disappointments have been guys like Jameis Winston, Sam Bradford, Baker Mayfield. All still better QBs than what Chicago had last year. Even if you go back 50 years, Russell, Couch, and Carr are the only ones who were maybe that bad. Statistically, it's actually pretty unlikely that he winds up worse than their QB play last year.

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30 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

The mystery box versus a boat gag is that you can get a guaranteed great thing, or you can get a mystery. In the end, most things are likely to be worth less than a boat. There is no boat in the Bears situation. There's a mystery box, or the absolute crap that was their 2023 QB situation. Even if Williams busts, he's still likely to be better than Tyson Bagent, for instance. In the last 20 years of first overall picks at QB, only Jamarcus Russell was that bad. Even your disappointments have been guys like Jameis Winston, Sam Bradford, Baker Mayfield. All still better QBs than what Chicago had last year. Even if you go back 50 years, Russell, Couch, and Carr are the only ones who were maybe that bad. Statistically, it's actually pretty unlikely that he winds up worse than their QB play last year.

...Bryce Young....

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5 minutes ago, Mr Bad Example said:

...Bryce Young....

Too early to rule which category he's in. One player also wouldn't move the probability all that much. Even if you want to throw him in the complete bust territory, which seems premature to me, there are still far more average or better QBs drafted first overall than there are outright bad ones.

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5 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

Too early to rule which category he's in. One player also wouldn't move the probability all that much. Even if you want to throw him in the complete bust territory, which seems premature to me, there are still far more average or better QBs drafted first overall than there are outright bad ones.

Well, we're talking about next season...plenty of players who were drafted highly have looked underwhelming in their first year or two and been better. 

So Williams could easily underperform Fields 2023 performance next season while still ending up better for his career. 

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24 minutes ago, Mr Bad Example said:

So Williams could easily underperform Fields 2023 performance next season while still ending up better for his career. 

You are right, but then the Bears gave up a bad QB and then used a completely separate resource for another bad QB. The boat/box thing only applies here if Fields is a franchise QB (which he hasn’t shown an inkling of thus far) and the Bears traded him for a pick that they then used on Caleb.

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On 6/14/2024 at 9:44 AM, El Ramster said:

I think the packers are overrated.

For sure. To be fair, they had 2 good, albeit close, wins (DET and KC). Outside of that, a bad Bears team (especially to start the season), A Saints team who had Jameis play the second half of the game, A Rams team with Brett Rypien at QB, the Panthers and a Nick Mullens lead Vikings. Love did smack around the Cowboys though, so that counts for something, I guess. 

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The Jets hype is probably the most ridiculous to me. Rodgers hasn't really been Rodgers in a while, he's 40 and coming off a serious injury. Wild.

Weirdly, I think the Bears are either overrated or underrated - I'd be shocked if they won 8-9 games. I think they will either have the best season ever for a number 1 pick QB and win 10+ games, or go 5-12.

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