OneTwoSixFive Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 (edited) 6 hours ago, Brit Pack said: Where have I ever said that I project Love to be a bad QB? I just don't think the contract he got was based on performance but more projection which makes me a little uncomfortable. I just wished we had less guarantee money tied up with him cos IF he doesn't carry on as projected we could cut bait easily I never said that you said Love would be a bad QB. I just have much greater confidence on what he will be, than you, who appear to have many more doubts. I DO have cap reservations generally as QB salaries spiral upwards, taking increasingly larger percentages of available cap space, but I'm comfortable with where I think Love will be talent-wise for the next several years (health permitting). You said (quote) "But I don't think anyone can confidently say who is Jordan Love at this stage." Simply put, I have more confidence than you appear to have. Edited July 28 by OneTwoSixFive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 6 minutes ago, Old Guy said: That is always going to be the case with every team that has to pay a quarterback top money. BTW, it is also the case with teams paying WRs over 30 a year. Every big contract effects guys teams are wanting to sign after that contract. If I'm going to spend the money, it's on a franchise QB. IF, BIG IF, Gute could grab two more WRs next year that could play, it would be harsh, but I'd be OK with allowing them all to walk when their rookie deal is up if they require more than 20 a year. WRs seem like a dime a dozen compared to topflight QBs. All opportunity cost. If you give anyone 10+ percent of your cap, you have to be cheap somewhere else. I am not overly concerned about paying a WR big, but just like QB you have to pay the right guy, not just pay the going rate because it is the going rate. So looking at Justin Jefferson at 38 is probably worth it, while I think Michael Pittman at 28 is absolutely not. At the same time, both of those teams have their preferred starting QB on a rookie contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HokieHigh Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 1 hour ago, Mazrimiv said: If Love can dial in his deep ball, his next contract is going to make this contract look like his rookie contract. With the ascending value of contracts, it will happen anyways. Mahomes deal needs to be redone already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TransientTexan Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 13 minutes ago, HokieHigh said: With the ascending value of contracts, it will happen anyways. Mahomes deal needs to be redone already. Mahomes’ AAV figure is deceiving. People act like he’s not making much, yet here are his upcoming cap hits: 2024: $37.01m (#6) 2025: $66.26m (#1) 2026: $68.66m (#3) 2027: $64.81m (#2) Just about any way you slice it, that’s $59m “AAV”, but talking heads keep citing the bogus $45m figure which is from completely different years and timespans as these other deals (apples vs oranges). Not to mention that AAV figures are borked to begin with. Does anyone really think Lawrence isn’t going to be restructured before his 2029/30 cap hits ($74-78m)? The massive base salaries in those years are meaningless & will get torn up, yet they currently play a big part in dragging his “AAV” higher. In reality, his deal is more like 202m/5yr= $40.4m AAV. Yet, given the talking-head pablum, you’d think he’s making more than Mahomes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HokieHigh Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 19 minutes ago, TransientTexan said: Mahomes’ AAV figure is deceiving. People act like he’s not making much, yet here are his upcoming cap hits: 2024: $37.01m (#6) 2025: $66.26m (#1) 2026: $68.66m (#3) 2027: $64.81m (#2) Just about any way you slice it, that’s $59m “AAV”, but talking heads keep citing the bogus $45m figure which is from completely different years and timespans as these other deals (apples vs oranges). Not to mention that AAV figures are borked to begin with. Does anyone really think Lawrence isn’t going to be restructured before his 2029/30 cap hits ($74-78m)? The massive base salaries in those years are meaningless & will get torn up, yet they currently play a big part in dragging his “AAV” higher. In reality, his deal is more like 202m/5yr= $40.4m AAV. Yet, given the talking-head pablum, you’d think he’s making more than Mahomes. Dont you think we are going to see a new mahomes deal in the next year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Now that we have the structure of the Love contract, I am quite happy with this deal. I was not expecting Love's cap numbers over the next 4 years to look as good as they do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted July 28 Author Share Posted July 28 45 minutes ago, TransientTexan said: Mahomes’ AAV figure is deceiving. People act like he’s not making much, yet here are his upcoming cap hits: 2024: $37.01m (#6) 2025: $66.26m (#1) 2026: $68.66m (#3) 2027: $64.81m (#2) Just about any way you slice it, that’s $59m “AAV”, but talking heads keep citing the bogus $45m figure which is from completely different years and timespans as these other deals (apples vs oranges). Not to mention that AAV figures are borked to begin with. Does anyone really think Lawrence isn’t going to be restructured before his 2029/30 cap hits ($74-78m)? The massive base salaries in those years are meaningless & will get torn up, yet they currently play a big part in dragging his “AAV” higher. In reality, his deal is more like 202m/5yr= $40.4m AAV. Yet, given the talking-head pablum, you’d think he’s making more than Mahomes. Look at his cap hits post-2027. 2028: $32.75M 2029: $35M 2030: $45.5M That 2025 roster bonus will almost certainly be converted into a signing bonus. They'll save $28M by simply restructuring his roster bonus dropping his cap hit to $39.6M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonKarman Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 2 hours ago, HokieHigh said: With the ascending value of contracts, it will happen anyways. Mahomes deal needs to be redone already. It's already been redone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddfather Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 3 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said: So, this contract doesn't mean anything at all until it costs the team free agents. We won't have to make any real tough decisions until 2026 offseason when the 2022 class becomes free agents. There will be a little bit of a squeeze, but that is also projecting paying Watson, Rhyan, Doubs, Tom, and Rasheed Walker starting level second contracts. The Packers have almost 67 million to use in 2026 to retain these players. Take into account the way Gute has been drafting lately as well. Take a few shots at a room at a time and keep hoping you hit on the young cheap talent. I'm not saying he will never sign anyone because just this year he even gave out a 3rd contract to a non QB which is rare in GB. I feel we will be more comfortable on letting good but not great players walk and trust the process of drafting young and cheap. If he keeps hitting it could still provide us a chance to go get a piece and not have to have a hard restart like we did post Rogers. As in swallowing the rest of the contract in one year. Note, I do think that was the best way to do it, but I'm sure he would've loved to avoid it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 5 minutes ago, Toddfather said: Take into account the way Gute has been drafting lately as well. Take a few shots at a room at a time and keep hoping you hit on the young cheap talent. I'm not saying he will never sign anyone because just this year he even gave out a 3rd contract to a non QB which is rare in GB. I feel we will be more comfortable on letting good but not great players walk and trust the process of drafting young and cheap. If he keeps hitting it could still provide us a chance to go get a piece and not have to have a hard restart like we did post Rogers. As in swallowing the rest of the contract in one year. Note, I do think that was the best way to do it, but I'm sure he would've loved to avoid it. I agree with all of this, but I'm not sure we had a 'hard restart post Rodgers.' We made the playoffs and our roster was really good. I guess when you say, 'hard restart,' my interpretation is we had to let some guys walk we wouldn't have otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddfather Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Just now, Old Guy said: I agree with all of this, but I'm not sure we had a 'hard restart post Rodgers.' We made the playoffs and our roster was really good. I guess when you say, 'hard restart,' my interpretation is we had to let some guys walk we wouldn't have otherwise. Yeah that's fair. The ones we did let go were most likely done outside of maybe Mercedes? I was talking more in regards to the cap, but yeah. I just think cap wise we will be working hard to not be in that spot again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HokieHigh Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 (edited) 1 hour ago, VonKarman said: It's already been redone. He cant eat 65million in cap each of the next 3 years... would be a total waste of his prime Edited July 28 by HokieHigh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatZepp Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 1 hour ago, HokieHigh said: He cant eat 65million in cap each of the next 3 years... would be a total waste of his prime I’m kinda envious that is the problem the 2-time defending champs are facing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TransientTexan Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 4 hours ago, CWood21 said: Look at his cap hits post-2027. 2028: $32.75M 2029: $35M 2030: $45.5M That 2025 roster bonus will almost certainly be converted into a signing bonus. They'll save $28M by simply restructuring his roster bonus dropping his cap hit to $39.6M. My point is just that cap hits that far into the future don’t really mean much and can be very deceptive. Yet they can meaningfully skew present-day stats like AAV that are feeding current false narratives among some nfl fans & talking heads. at the end of the day, a decade from now when we retrospectively look at the money actually paid to Mahomes (& other QB’s) during the present time periods, Mahomes will come out at or near the top. There isn’t some fanciful period of years going on right now where he’s making $5-10m/yr less than all these other QB’s. even if they don’t rework his deal until after the 2025 season, his cash flows now and in the immediate future stack up against- and exceed- almost any QB. & any rework would be to help KC’s cap, not to somehow bring Mahomes’ money up into parity with others. It’s not like the Chiefs are getting him at a discount right now, as some are making out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 10 hours ago, squire12 said: Those teams went to the superbowl with the QB on a rookie deal. Once the contract extension, proving they can get back when the cap hits have changed is a different proof in the pudding. Both Burrow and Hurts have bigger injury histories than Love, but feel free to exclude that in your risk assessment You seem to compare to different things with the QB contracts. If you look at Love and Hurts contracts, each have guarantees that trigger a year or so out from that time....but you seem hung up on the "guaranteed at signing" which is Love $100M Hurts $110M The $100m I can live with it is the additional $55m that is guaranteed that I find hard to stomach The 2026 and 2027 guarantees is what I have the issue with. If Love doesn't live up to what we all project him to be we can't get him off the books till after the 2027 season and even then it hurts. Dead cap hit 2026 $100m, 2027 $65m, 2028 $40m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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