Heimdallr Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 The Saints, Rams and Panthers scare me the most, in that order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klomp Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 hours ago, vikingsrule said: How convincing was the Rams win really? A fluke fumble at the one right before half time and a big catch and run by Thielen to finish it, the Rams very well could have won it. We made the plays but that's not guaranteed the second time around. With how LA dominated the Seahawks in Seattle, I'm worried they are better than when we last played them. People need to stop looking at the final scores when deciding how good a win was for this team. Margin of victory really doesn't matter. This team was the best offense in the entire NFL going into the game, and it was one drive from being shut out. If that's not convincing, I don't know what is. Doesn't mean it's a lock to happen again if we meet in the playoffs, but I like the odds of getting the win in a rematch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingsrule Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, Klomp said: People need to stop looking at the final scores when deciding how good a win was for this team. Margin of victory really doesn't matter. This team was the best offense in the entire NFL going into the game, and it was one drive from being shut out. If that's not convincing, I don't know what is. Doesn't mean it's a lock to happen again if we meet in the playoffs, but I like the odds of getting the win in a rematch. I like think the odds are about 50/50 . If the Rams go into the half with a lead, how confident would you have been in getting the win. We may not catch the same break as recovering a fumble at the one, which completely changed the momentum of the game. All the margin of victory reveals is margin for error. It was small against the Rams, two plays ultimately may have decided that game (fumble at the one and Thielens long score). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klomp Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 hour ago, vikingsrule said: I like think the odds are about 50/50 . If the Rams go into the half with a lead, how confident would you have been in getting the win. We may not catch the same break as recovering a fumble at the one, which completely changed the momentum of the game. If we're dealing with hypotheticals..... A touchdown there would've made it 14-7 with 4 minutes left. After the kickoff, we would've had the ball closer to the 25 rather than the 1. With the yards we got, we would've likely been past midfield with over 2 minutes left and 1st down with two timeouts left. I like this offense's chances to score in that situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cearbhall Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 FiveThirtyEight has the Vikings as a 16% chance to win the Super Bowl. I'll take 16 and be very happy with it. Also, they predict a greater than 99% probability of the Vikings getting a first round bye. PLAYOFF CHANCES CHOOSE YOUR OWN RESULTS ELO RATING 1-WEEK CHANGE TEAM DIVISION MAKE PLAYOFFS WIN DIVISION 1ST-ROUND BYE WIN SUPER BOWL WEEK 17 MATCHUP 1732 +9 New England12-3 AFC East ✓ ✓ ✓ 28% NYJ 1680 +7 Philadelphia13-2 NFC East ✓ ✓ ✓ 19% DAL 1663 +14 Pittsburgh12-3 AFC North ✓ ✓ ✓ 13% CLE 1661 +22 Minnesota12-3 NFC North ✓ ✓ >99% 16% CHI 1658 +19 New Orleans11-4 NFC South ✓ 90% — 6% @TB 1630 +13 L.A. Rams11-4 NFC West ✓ ✓ — 5% SF 1618 -19 Atlanta9-6 NFC South 70% — — 2% CAR 1606 +12 Kansas City9-6 AFC West ✓ ✓ — 3% @DEN 1604 +5 Carolina11-4 NFC South ✓ 10% <1% 2% @ATL 1583 +29 Seattle9-6 NFC West 30% — — <1% ARI 1578 +6 Baltimore9-6 AFC North 94% — — 2% CIN 1548 +18 L.A. Chargers8-7 AFC West 31% — — <1% OAK 1535 -29 Dallas8-7 NFC East — — — — @PHI 1533 -38 Jacksonville10-5 AFC South ✓ ✓ — 2% @TEN 1510 -29 Detroit8-7 NFC North — — — — GB 1497 -9 Buffalo8-7 AFC East 17% — — <1% @MIA 1483 +22 Washington7-8 NFC East — — — — @NYG 1477 -22 Green Bay7-8 NFC North — — — — @DET 1470 -13 Tennessee8-7 AFC South 58% — — <1% JAX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingsrule Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Phillys odds are way too high. They must not be factoring in Foles being the starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 good to see we're in a grouping in the top four. and yes, PHI seems ranked too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cearbhall Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 hours ago, vikingsrule said: Phillys odds are way too high. They must not be factoring in Foles being the starter. Agreed. I think it is based off of the fact that they have been winning with Foles. If I select Dallas to win this week the odds tilt towards the AFC a bit so that the Eagles chances of a Super Bowl are lower than the Vikings. I am happy having odds over Pittsburgh and the NFC having more than a 50% chance overall. But here it is with an Eagles loss to Dallas: 1732 +9 New England12-3 AFC East ✓ ✓ ✓ 29% NYJ 1680 +7 Philadelphia13-3 NFC East ✓ ✓ ✓ 15% DAL 1663 +14 Pittsburgh12-3 AFC North ✓ ✓ ✓ 14% CLE 1661 +22 Minnesota12-3 NFC North ✓ ✓ >99% 16% CHI 1658 +19 New Orleans11-4 NFC South ✓ 90% — 7% @TB 1630 +13 L.A. Rams11-4 NFC West ✓ ✓ — 5% SF 1618 -19 Atlanta9-6 NFC South 71% — — 2% CAR 1606 +12 Kansas City9-6 AFC West ✓ ✓ — 3% @DEN 1604 +5 Carolina11-4 NFC South ✓ 10% <1% 3% @ATL 1583 +29 Seattle9-6 NFC West 29% — — <1% ARI 1578 +6 Baltimore9-6 AFC North 94% — — 2% CIN 1548 +18 L.A. Chargers8-7 AFC West 31% — — <1% OAK 1535 -29 Dallas9-7 NFC East — — — — @PHI 1533 -38 Jacksonville10-5 AFC South ✓ ✓ — 2% @TEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purplexing Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 hours ago, vikingsrule said: Phillys odds are way too high. They must not be factoring in Foles being the starter. Possibly the following; home field advantage against 'warm weather teams' and/ or 'dome teams'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthCountryEvo Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The Rams and Saints are the two teams I want to face the least. We beat them both, but they both have scary offenses and good defenses. Even so, I have a very high confidence that we can and will be able to beat any team we face in the NFC playoffs because (assuming Philly gets knocked out) we will be playing at home which is a monumental advantage for this team. Minnesota and its fans are hungry for playoff wins and a super bowl, and The Bank will be insane through the playoffs. With how well we play at home, and with that crowd and energy behind the team, it feels like we could be unstoppable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heimdallr Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Football Outsiders gives a MIN vs NE Super Bowl the best odds http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marshpit23 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The road to the Superb Owl ? will go through MN and end in MN. We are the most well rounded team in the NFC. Add the fact (prediction) that we will be home throughout the playoffs and we’re looking at high probability of playing for the Lombardi Trophy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkolMasterMN Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, marshpit23 said: The road to the Superb Owl ? will go through MN and end in MN. We are the most well rounded team in the NFC. Add the fact (prediction) that we will be home throughout the playoffs and we’re looking at high probability of playing for the Lombardi Trophy. Agreed. I don't think Philadelphia will be making it past their 1st round game, whoever it is. Which would ensure home field throughout for us. Honestly though if Philly does somehow manage to pull out their 1st game, playing them in Philly doesn't scare me all that much either. But the thing is, I'd love to see us send our team into the Superbowl in front of our fans, at home. That'd be a dream come true. So I'd rather much rather have the NFC Championship Game at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purplexing Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/26/2017 at 6:47 PM, vikingsrule said: I like think the odds are about 50/50 . If the Rams go into the half with a lead, how confident would you have been in getting the win. We may not catch the same break as recovering a fumble at the one, which completely changed the momentum of the game. All the margin of victory reveals is margin for error. It was small against the Rams, two plays ultimately may have decided that game (fumble at the one and Thielens long score). Offsetting some 'luck lost' by the Vikings could be some 'luck lost' by the Rams in their scoring drives. But I agree the teams are closely matched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopherwrestler Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Rams resting starters to avoid the Vikings and get the #4 seed. Believe it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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