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Road to the Superbowl (Playoff Thread)


gopherwrestler

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3 hours ago, vikingsrule said:

How convincing was the Rams win really? A fluke fumble at the one right before half time and a big catch and run by Thielen to finish it, the Rams very well could have won it. We made the plays but that's not guaranteed the second time around. With how LA dominated the Seahawks in Seattle, I'm worried they are better than when we last played them. 

People need to stop looking at the final scores when deciding how good a win was for this team. Margin of victory really doesn't matter.

This team was the best offense in the entire NFL going into the game, and it was one drive from being shut out. If that's not convincing, I don't know what is.

Doesn't mean it's a lock to happen again if we meet in the playoffs, but I like the odds of getting the win in a rematch.

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5 minutes ago, Klomp said:

People need to stop looking at the final scores when deciding how good a win was for this team. Margin of victory really doesn't matter.

This team was the best offense in the entire NFL going into the game, and it was one drive from being shut out. If that's not convincing, I don't know what is.

Doesn't mean it's a lock to happen again if we meet in the playoffs, but I like the odds of getting the win in a rematch.

I like think the odds are about 50/50 . If the Rams go into the half with a lead, how confident would you have been in getting the win. We may not catch the same break as recovering a fumble at the one, which completely changed the momentum of the game.

All the margin of victory reveals is margin for error. It was small against the Rams, two plays ultimately may have decided that game (fumble at the one and Thielens long score). 

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1 hour ago, vikingsrule said:

I like think the odds are about 50/50 . If the Rams go into the half with a lead, how confident would you have been in getting the win. We may not catch the same break as recovering a fumble at the one, which completely changed the momentum of the game.

If we're dealing with hypotheticals.....

A touchdown there would've made it 14-7 with 4 minutes left. After the kickoff, we would've had the ball closer to the 25 rather than the 1. With the yards we got, we would've likely been past midfield with over 2 minutes left and 1st down with two timeouts left. I like this offense's chances to score in that situation.

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FiveThirtyEight has the Vikings as a 16% chance to win the Super Bowl. I'll take 16 and be very happy with it. Also, they predict a greater than 99% probability of the Vikings getting a first round bye.

 

  PLAYOFF CHANCES CHOOSE YOUR OWN RESULTS
 
ELO RATING
1-WEEK CHANGE   TEAM DIVISION
MAKE PLAYOFFS
WIN DIVISION
1ST-ROUND BYE
WIN SUPER BOWL
WEEK 17 MATCHUP
1732
+9
NE-logo New England12-3 AFC East 28%
 
NYJ
1680
+7
PHI-logo Philadelphia13-2 NFC East 19%
 
DAL
1663
+14
PIT-logo Pittsburgh12-3 AFC North 13%
 
CLE
1661
+22
MIN-logo Minnesota12-3 NFC North >99% 16%
 
CHI
1658
+19
NO-logo New Orleans11-4 NFC South 90% 6%
 
@TB
1630
+13
LAR-logo L.A. Rams11-4 NFC West 5%
 
SF
1618
-19
ATL-logo Atlanta9-6 NFC South 70% 2%
 
CAR
1606
+12
KC-logo Kansas City9-6 AFC West 3%
 
@DEN
1604
+5
CAR-logo Carolina11-4 NFC South 10% <1% 2%
 
@ATL
1583
+29
SEA-logo Seattle9-6 NFC West 30% <1%
 
ARI
1578
+6
BAL-logo Baltimore9-6 AFC North 94% 2%
 
CIN
1548
+18
LAC-logo L.A. Chargers8-7 AFC West 31% <1%
 
OAK
1535
-29
DAL-logo Dallas8-7 NFC East
 
@PHI
1533
-38
JAX-logo Jacksonville10-5 AFC South 2%
 
@TEN
1510
-29
DET-logo Detroit8-7 NFC North
 
GB
1497
-9
BUF-logo Buffalo8-7 AFC East 17% <1%
 
@MIA
1483
+22
WSH-logo Washington7-8 NFC East
 
@NYG
1477
-22
GB-logo Green Bay7-8 NFC North
 
@DET
1470
-13
TEN-logo Tennessee8-7 AFC South 58% <1%
 
JAX

 

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2 hours ago, vikingsrule said:

Phillys odds are way too high. They must not be factoring in Foles being the starter.

Agreed. I think it is based off of the fact that they have been winning with Foles. If I select Dallas to win this week the odds tilt towards the AFC a bit so that the Eagles chances of a Super Bowl are lower than the Vikings. I am happy having odds over Pittsburgh and the NFC having more than a 50% chance overall. But here it is with an Eagles loss to Dallas:

 

1732
+9
NE-logo New England12-3 AFC East 29%
 
NYJ
1680
+7
PHI-logo Philadelphia13-3 NFC East 15%
 
DAL
1663
+14
PIT-logo Pittsburgh12-3 AFC North 14%
 
CLE
1661
+22
MIN-logo Minnesota12-3 NFC North >99% 16%
 
CHI
1658
+19
NO-logo New Orleans11-4 NFC South 90% 7%
 
@TB
1630
+13
LAR-logo L.A. Rams11-4 NFC West 5%
 
SF
1618
-19
ATL-logo Atlanta9-6 NFC South 71% 2%
 
CAR
1606
+12
KC-logo Kansas City9-6 AFC West 3%
 
@DEN
1604
+5
CAR-logo Carolina11-4 NFC South 10% <1% 3%
 
@ATL
1583
+29
SEA-logo Seattle9-6 NFC West 29% <1%
 
ARI
1578
+6
BAL-logo Baltimore9-6 AFC North 94% 2%
 
CIN
1548
+18
LAC-logo L.A. Chargers8-7 AFC West 31% <1%
 
OAK
1535
-29
DAL-logo Dallas9-7 NFC East
 
@PHI
1533
-38
JAX-logo Jacksonville10-5 AFC South 2%
 
@TEN
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The Rams and Saints are the two teams I want to face the least. We beat them both, but they both have scary offenses and good defenses. Even so, I have a very high confidence that we can and will be able to beat any team we face in the NFC playoffs because (assuming Philly gets knocked out) we will be playing at home which is a monumental advantage for this team. Minnesota and its fans are hungry for playoff wins and a super bowl, and The Bank will be insane through the playoffs. With how well we play at home, and with that crowd and energy behind the team, it feels like we could be unstoppable.

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The road to the Superb Owl ? will go through MN and end in MN. We are the most well rounded team in the NFC. Add the fact (prediction) that we will be home throughout the playoffs and we’re looking at high probability of playing for the Lombardi Trophy. 

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10 minutes ago, marshpit23 said:

The road to the Superb Owl ? will go through MN and end in MN. We are the most well rounded team in the NFC. Add the fact (prediction) that we will be home throughout the playoffs and we’re looking at high probability of playing for the Lombardi Trophy. 

Agreed. I don't think Philadelphia will be making it past their 1st round game, whoever it is. Which would ensure home field throughout for us. Honestly though if Philly does somehow manage to pull out their 1st game, playing them in Philly doesn't scare me all that much either. But the thing is, I'd love to see us send our team into the Superbowl in front of our fans, at home. That'd be a dream come true. So I'd rather much rather have the NFC Championship Game at home

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On 12/26/2017 at 6:47 PM, vikingsrule said:

I like think the odds are about 50/50 . If the Rams go into the half with a lead, how confident would you have been in getting the win. We may not catch the same break as recovering a fumble at the one, which completely changed the momentum of the game.

All the margin of victory reveals is margin for error. It was small against the Rams, two plays ultimately may have decided that game (fumble at the one and Thielens long score). 

Offsetting some 'luck lost' by the Vikings could be some 'luck lost' by the Rams in their scoring drives.  But I agree the teams are closely matched.

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